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    目(mu)(mu)前(qian)，中國(guo)(guo)高檔(dang)(dang)(dang)農(nong)(nong)(nong)膜(mo)(mo)比(bi)(bi)例僅(jin)2％，中檔(dang)(dang)(dang)農(nong)(nong)(nong)膜(mo)(mo)為20％，低檔(dang)(dang)(dang)農(nong)(nong)(nong)膜(mo)(mo)高達78％，而發達國(guo)(guo)家（如美國(guo)(guo)、日本(ben)等）這一比(bi)(bi)例分別為20％、50％和30％。2005年(nian)，中國(guo)(guo)農(nong)(nong)(nong)膜(mo)(mo)產能達200萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun)，產量約130萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun)，實際需(xu)求100萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun)，市場總體供(gong)大于求，而這其(qi)中過(guo)剩產品大多是低檔(dang)(dang)(dang)農(nong)(nong)(nong)膜(mo)(mo)。與低檔(dang)(dang)(dang)農(nong)(nong)(nong)膜(mo)(mo)相比(bi)(bi)，國(guo)(guo)內中高檔(dang)(dang)(dang)農(nong)(nong)(nong)膜(mo)(mo)因供(gong)不應求而銷售火爆，價格(ge)上漲，企業(ye)因此獲利豐厚。目(mu)(mu)前(qian)，生產高檔(dang)(dang)(dang)農(nong)(nong)(nong)膜(mo)(mo)毛(mao)利可(ke)達25％～35％，中檔(dang)(dang)(dang)農(nong)(nong)(nong)膜(mo)(mo)毛(mao)利約10％～20％，而低檔(dang)(dang)(dang)農(nong)(nong)(nong)膜(mo)(mo)毛(mao)利只有2％～5％，有些企業(ye)甚至是賠(pei)本(ben)經營。嚴重失衡的國(guo)(guo)內農(nong)(nong)(nong)膜(mo)(mo)產品結構，使農(nong)(nong)(nong)膜(mo)(mo)產業(ye)結構具備了很大的調整(zheng)空(kong)間。

    專家認為(wei)，目(mu)前(qian)農(nong)(nong)(nong)膜(mo)(mo)產(chan)(chan)品結構調整(zheng)的(de)時機已成(cheng)熟。首先是不斷增(zeng)(zeng)加的(de)成(cheng)本壓(ya)(ya)力，成(cheng)為(wei)企(qi)業調整(zheng)產(chan)(chan)品結構的(de)內(nei)在動(dong)力。自2003年下半(ban)年以(yi)來，國際(ji)原油價(jia)(jia)格持續上(shang)漲，助推(tui)農(nong)(nong)(nong)膜(mo)(mo)生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)所需的(de)PE原料價(jia)(jia)格翻番，加上(shang)水(shui)電運費上(shang)漲和員工工資(zi)增(zeng)(zeng)加，使企(qi)業經營(ying)成(cheng)本大(da)(da)幅增(zeng)(zeng)加，但低(di)檔農(nong)(nong)(nong)膜(mo)(mo)供大(da)(da)于求卻使企(qi)業不敢同步提(ti)高(gao)產(chan)(chan)品價(jia)(jia)格。相反，為(wei)了搶(qiang)奪市場，企(qi)業還競相壓(ya)(ya)價(jia)(jia)，最(zui)終導致利潤銳減，出(chu)現(xian)大(da)(da)面積(ji)虧(kui)損。2005年，中國90％的(de)農(nong)(nong)(nong)膜(mo)(mo)企(qi)業虧(kui)損，企(qi)業平均開工率(lv)不足40％。高(gao)低(di)檔農(nong)(nong)(nong)膜(mo)(mo)'陰陽(yang)兩重天'的(de)局(ju)面，將促使一些有實(shi)力的(de)企(qi)業重新調整(zheng)產(chan)(chan)品定位，通(tong)過加大(da)(da)新產(chan)(chan)品研發和科技投入，提(ti)高(gao)中高(gao)檔農(nong)(nong)(nong)膜(mo)(mo)比例(li)。

    其次是高(gao)中(zhong)檔(dang)(dang)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)膜需求(qiu)(qiu)增長(chang)，將(jiang)成為(wei)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)膜結構(gou)(gou)調(diao)整(zheng)的(de)(de)'催化劑(ji)'。農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)業生產(chan)向高(gao)附加值轉型，黨(dang)和政府的(de)(de)惠農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)政策，使(shi)廣(guang)大農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)民對(dui)高(gao)性能農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)膜的(de)(de)需求(qiu)(qiu)增加。專(zhuan)家預測，'十一五'期間，國內高(gao)中(zhong)檔(dang)(dang)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)膜需求(qiu)(qiu)將(jiang)年(nian)均增長(chang)12％以上(shang)，而低檔(dang)(dang)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)膜需求(qiu)(qiu)將(jiang)持(chi)續萎縮(suo)。農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)膜消費(fei)結構(gou)(gou)的(de)(de)變化，將(jiang)有(you)力地推動農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)膜產(chan)品(pin)結構(gou)(gou)的(de)(de)調(diao)整(zheng)。

    第三是(shi)國(guo)(guo)內大(da)型(xing)(xing)農(nong)(nong)膜(mo)(mo)企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)已經具(ju)(ju)備(bei)了調整產(chan)(chan)品(pin)結(jie)構(gou)的(de)(de)條件。目前，國(guo)(guo)內約有農(nong)(nong)膜(mo)(mo)生產(chan)(chan)企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)800多(duo)家(jia)，其中(zhong)(zhong)產(chan)(chan)能(neng)在(zai)3000噸／年以(yi)上的(de)(de)有203家(jia)，其產(chan)(chan)能(neng)與產(chan)(chan)量(liang)分別占國(guo)(guo)內農(nong)(nong)膜(mo)(mo)總(zong)量(liang)的(de)(de)70％和(he)60％。雖(sui)然(ran)近兩年有一半以(yi)上大(da)中(zhong)(zhong)型(xing)(xing)農(nong)(nong)膜(mo)(mo)企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)在(zai)慘烈的(de)(de)市場競(jing)爭(zheng)中(zhong)(zhong)停產(chan)(chan)或轉產(chan)(chan)，但60％以(yi)上的(de)(de)產(chan)(chan)能(neng)和(he)產(chan)(chan)量(liang)仍掌控(kong)在(zai)幾百家(jia)較(jiao)大(da)型(xing)(xing)農(nong)(nong)膜(mo)(mo)企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)手中(zhong)(zhong)，這些(xie)(xie)企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)是(shi)農(nong)(nong)膜(mo)(mo)行業(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)精英，它們除(chu)資金短缺外，大(da)多(duo)具(ju)(ju)有技(ji)術、人(ren)才、管理和(he)品(pin)牌(pai)優(you)勢，有較(jiao)強的(de)(de)研(yan)發(fa)實(shi)力(li)。國(guo)(guo)家(jia)只要(yao)給這些(xie)(xie)企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)以(yi)資金和(he)政策支持(chi)，鼓勵(li)企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)科技(ji)創(chuang)新(xin)和(he)新(xin)產(chan)(chan)品(pin)開(kai)發(fa)，幫(bang)助企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)解(jie)決(jue)生產(chan)(chan)經營(ying)中(zhong)(zhong)遇到的(de)(de)困(kun)難(nan)，就(jiu)可大(da)幅提升國(guo)(guo)內農(nong)(nong)膜(mo)(mo)行業(ye)(ye)整體實(shi)力(li)和(he)科技(ji)水(shui)平，提高中(zhong)(zhong)高檔農(nong)(nong)膜(mo)(mo)產(chan)(chan)品(pin)的(de)(de)比例(li)，順利(li)實(shi)現國(guo)(guo)內農(nong)(nong)膜(mo)(mo)產(chan)(chan)品(pin)結(jie)構(gou)的(de)(de)優(you)化和(he)調整。作者(zhe)： 陳(chen)繼軍