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    一(yi)、遷飛性、暴發性等重(zhong)大害蟲(chong)  今年汛(xun)期(qi)低(di)溫(wen)多雨，對東亞飛蝗(huang)(huang)(huang)、煙(yan)粉虱、棉(mian)鈴(ling)(ling)蟲(chong)、甜菜夜蛾等(deng)害蟲(chong)的發(fa)生(sheng)有抑制(zhi)作(zuo)用(yong)，加上(shang)蟲(chong)源(yuan)基數偏(pian)(pian)低(di)，預報秋(qiu)蝗(huang)(huang)(huang)中等(deng)發(fa)生(sheng)，沿海蝗(huang)(huang)(huang)區和濱湖蝗(huang)(huang)(huang)區局(ju)部偏(pian)(pian)重(zhong)發(fa)生(sheng)；煙(yan)粉虱在魯(lu)(lu)北(bei)棉(mian)區可(ke)能大發(fa)生(sheng)，其他地區中等(deng)至偏(pian)(pian)重(zhong)發(fa)生(sheng)；三、四代棉(mian)鈴(ling)(ling)蟲(chong)為(wei)中等(deng)偏(pian)(pian)輕發(fa)生(sheng)，魯(lu)(lu)中、魯(lu)(lu)西(xi)南棉(mian)區局(ju)部將達到中等(deng)發(fa)生(sheng)；甜菜夜蛾中等(deng)偏(pian)(pian)輕發(fa)生(sheng)，局(ju)部地區中等(deng)發(fa)生(sheng)，發(fa)生(sheng)程序接近常年。

    二、棉花病蟲  棉(mian)花(hua)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)害和(he)(he)棉(mian)盲(mang)蝽(chun)(chun)發生(sheng)(sheng)趨(qu)勢(shi)加(jia)重(zhong)。多雨抑(yi)制了棉(mian)伏蚜的(de)發生(sheng)(sheng)，但棉(mian)鈴病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)將中(zhong)等發生(sheng)(sheng)，局部地區偏重(zhong)發生(sheng)(sheng)；棉(mian)花(hua)枯(ku)(ku)萎病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)在部分棉(mian)區也將達到(dao)中(zhong)等發生(sheng)(sheng)；棉(mian)花(hua)紅葉莖枯(ku)(ku)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)有加(jia)重(zhong)發生(sheng)(sheng)的(de)趨(qu)勢(shi)。病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)害和(he)(he)棉(mian)盲(mang)蝽(chun)(chun)的(de)發生(sheng)(sheng)危害重(zhong)于去(qu)年和(he)(he)常(chang)年。

    三(san)、玉米、水稻(dao)病蟲  玉(yu)(yu)米病(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)呈(cheng)中(zhong)等(deng)(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)趨(qu)(qu)勢。其中(zhong)彎孢菌葉斑(ban)病(bing)(bing)將偏(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)；玉(yu)(yu)米大小葉斑(ban)病(bing)(bing)、三代玉(yu)(yu)米螟、玉(yu)(yu)米穗蟲(chong)(chong)中(zhong)等(deng)(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)；其他病(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)偏(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)輕發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)。玉(yu)(yu)米紋(wen)枯(ku)病(bing)(bing)、絲黑穗病(bing)(bing)、莖(jing)基(ji)腐病(bing)(bing)在部(bu)分地(di)區感病(bing)(bing)品種上有上升趨(qu)(qu)勢。受(shou)降水偏(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)多、病(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)基(ji)數偏(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)高等(deng)(deng)條件影(ying)響，水稻病(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)呈(cheng)偏(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)趨(qu)(qu)勢。其中(zhong)稻瘟(wen)病(bing)(bing)偏(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，水稻紋(wen)枯(ku)病(bing)(bing)、條紋(wen)葉枯(ku)病(bing)(bing)、稻縱卷葉螟、稻飛虱中(zhong)等(deng)(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，局部(bu)偏(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)。

    四、大豆、甘薯、花生病蟲  豆(dou)天(tian)蛾、大(da)豆(dou)造橋蟲、大(da)豆(dou)蚜蟲等(deng)大(da)豆(dou)害蟲將輕發(fa)生或中(zhong)等(deng)偏(pian)輕發(fa)生。甘薯天(tian)蛾在中(zhong)南部山區偏(pian)輕發(fa)生。花生葉(xie)斑(ban)病(bing)將偏(pian)重(zhong)發(fa)生，地下害蟲中(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)生，其他花生病(bing)蟲發(fa)生較(jiao)輕。

    五、蔬菜病蟲  黃瓜霜霉(mei)病、根結(jie)線蟲(chong)病（老(lao)菜(cai)(cai)區）為偏(pian)(pian)重發(fa)(fa)(fa)生；白菜(cai)(cai)霜霉(mei)病、姜瘟病、小菜(cai)(cai)蛾、菜(cai)(cai)蚜、潛葉蠅類中等(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生，局部偏(pian)(pian)重發(fa)(fa)(fa)生；其他病蟲(chong)中等(deng)或偏(pian)(pian)輕發(fa)(fa)(fa)生。

六、果樹病蟲  蘋果輪紋病(bing)(bing)、斑點落葉病(bing)(bing)、腐爛病(bing)(bing)、葡萄(tao)霜霉(mei)病(bing)(bing)、葡萄(tao)白腐病(bing)(bing)、梨黑(hei)星病(bing)(bing)等(deng)果樹(shu)病(bing)(bing)害發(fa)生(sheng)相對(dui)較(jiao)重(zhong)(zhong)，局部偏重(zhong)(zhong)發(fa)生(sheng)；果樹(shu)害蟲一般(ban)偏輕發(fa)生(sheng)。