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　　春耕在即，為認真貫徹落實(shi)中(zhong)央1號文件和中(zhong)央經濟工作會議精(jing)神，切實(shi)搞好衡陽市農(nong)(nong)資(zi)市場價(jia)格(ge)監控，保(bao)護農(nong)(nong)民利益(yi)，調動農(nong)(nong)民生(sheng)產積極性(xing)，促進(jin)(jin)農(nong)(nong)業生(sheng)產再上新(xin)臺階，對全市農(nong)(nong)資(zi)市場供需情況及價(jia)格(ge)水(shui)平(ping)進(jin)(jin)行了(le)一次專題調查。

　　據對各(ge)縣(xian)（市）區及(ji)市區部分(fen)農民需(xu)求的主要(yao)農資品(pin)種(zhong)調查，結(jie)合歷(li)年(nian)(nian)實際使用量推算(suan)，預計今年(nian)(nian)全市農業(ye)所需(xu)化(hua)(hua)肥45萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)左(zuo)右。分(fen)別為：尿素9萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)，碳銨(an)18-19萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)，鉀肥3萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)，復合肥4萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)，磷肥10萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)。其中早(zao)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)需(xu)化(hua)(hua)肥25-26萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)，分(fen)品(pin)種(zhong)為：尿素3萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)，碳銨(an)11-12萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)，磷肥7萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)，鉀肥1.5萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)，復合肥2萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)。全年(nian)(nian)需(xu)農藥9000噸(dun)(dun)(dun)左(zuo)右，其中早(zao)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)需(xu)農藥3500噸(dun)(dun)(dun)左(zuo)右，需(xu)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)谷種(zhong)子(zi)(zi)2400萬(wan)(wan)公(gong)斤，其中早(zao)中稻(dao)(dao)(dao)（按(an)每(mei)畝5公(gong)斤計）需(xu)種(zhong)子(zi)(zi)1700萬(wan)(wan)公(gong)斤。

　　目(mu)前各類(lei)農資(zi)庫存情況(kuang)：據對(dui)各方調查(cha)統計(ji)估算，截止2005年2月底，全市(shi)化肥庫存有(you)16萬(wan)多(duo)噸，其中尿素3萬(wan)多(duo)噸，碳(tan)銨5萬(wan)多(duo)噸，磷肥5萬(wan)多(duo)噸，復合(he)肥約2萬(wan)噸，鉀(jia)肥1萬(wan)噸左右。農藥庫存2000多(duo)噸。稻(dao)谷種子庫存數量也充足(zu)。按早(zao)稻(dao)需(xu)求量推算，目(mu)前除碳(tan)銨尚有(you)部分(fen)缺口外(wai)，其他農資(zi)品種均能基本滿足(zu)生(sheng)產(chan)需(xu)求。既使(shi)碳(tan)銨庫存與早(zao)稻(dao)用(yong)量有(you)些缺口，但該市(shi)8個氮肥廠，生(sheng)產(chan)能力大(da)，月可產(chan)碳(tan)銨7-8萬(wan)噸，保障早(zao)稻(dao)用(yong)肥不會(hui)有(you)問題。農藥全國產(chan)大(da)于銷(xiao)，貨源充足(zu)，市(shi)場仍較疲軟，滿足(zu)早(zao)稻(dao)用(yong)藥需(xu)求也無大(da)的(de)問題，況(kuang)且(qie)距早(zao)稻(dao)用(yong)藥季節還有(you)一段時間。種子，農民絕大(da)部分(fen)早(zao)已備足(zu)，現(xian)處于尾聲(sheng)。

　　據對全市(shi)部(bu)分(fen)(fen)農資生產、經(jing)營企業及個體經(jing)銷戶的(de)調查情況分(fen)(fen)析，目前市(shi)場(chang)農資供應中，大(da)部(bu)分(fen)(fen)品(pin)種(zhong)農藥價(jia)格基本穩定，化(hua)肥(fei)(fei)、種(zhong)子價(jia)格較上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)有(you)不(bu)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)程度(du)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)，其中尤(you)以化(hua)肥(fei)(fei)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)幅(fu)(fu)(fu)最大(da)。具體掛牌(pai)價(jia)格水(shui)平為：2月末(mo)市(shi)產尿素出廠(chang)價(jia)每(mei)噸(dun)高達(da)1750元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)，外購尿素進(jin)價(jia)（一到站(zhan)，下(xia)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)）為每(mei)噸(dun)（下(xia)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)）1720-1750元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)，較上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)的(de)1450元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)了(le)300元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)，漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)幅(fu)(fu)(fu)20.7%；批發價(jia)1770元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)較上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)的(de)1470元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)也上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)了(le)300元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)，漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)幅(fu)(fu)(fu)為20.4%；市(shi)場(chang)零(ling)售價(jia)格為每(mei)50公(gong)斤（下(xia)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)）94-97元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)之間(jian)，較上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)80-83元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)14元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)，漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)幅(fu)(fu)(fu)16.9-17.5%。進(jin)口鉀(jia)肥(fei)(fei)進(jin)價(jia)（一到站(zhan)，下(xia)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)）每(mei)噸(dun)（下(xia)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)）為2020-2040元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)，較上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)的(de)1600-16800元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)360-420元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)，漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)幅(fu)(fu)(fu)21.4-26.3%；批發價(jia)2040-2030元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)，較上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)1620-1700元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)370-420元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)，漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)幅(fu)(fu)(fu)21.7-25.9%，市(shi)場(chang)零(ling)售價(jia)尚在97-102元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/50公(gong)斤，也較上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)82-88元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/50公(gong)斤上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)14-15元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)，漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)幅(fu)(fu)(fu)15.9-18.3%。產地碳銨出廠(chang)價(jia)460-470元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)，較上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)380-390元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)80元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)，漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)幅(fu)(fu)(fu)21%；市(shi)場(chang)零(ling)售價(jia)24-26元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/50公(gong)斤，較上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)20-22元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/50公(gong)斤上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)4元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)，漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)幅(fu)(fu)(fu)20%。產地磷肥(fei)(fei)出廠(chang)價(jia)315-340元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)，較上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)260-270元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)55-70元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)，漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)幅(fu)(fu)(fu)21.1-25.9%；市(shi)場(chang)零(ling)售價(jia)18元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/50公(gong)斤，較上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)16元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/50公(gong)斤上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)2元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)，漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)幅(fu)(fu)(fu)12.5%。其他化(hua)肥(fei)(fei)如(ru)復合(he)肥(fei)(fei)、市(shi)場(chang)零(ling)售價(jia)也較上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)15%左(zuo)(zuo)右。優質雜交稻和常規(gui)稻種(zhong)子市(shi)場(chang)零(ling)售價(jia)較上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)也上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)10-20%左(zuo)(zuo)右。農藥部(bu)分(fen)(fen)品(pin)種(zhong)價(jia)格較上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)持(chi)平，部(bu)分(fen)(fen)品(pin)種(zhong)略有(you)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)，漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)幅(fu)(fu)(fu)均在5-10%左(zuo)(zuo)右。

　　從以上化(hua)(hua)肥市場(chang)各環(huan)(huan)節(jie)的(de)價(jia)(jia)格漲(zhang)幅(fu)看(kan)，零售環(huan)(huan)節(jie)漲(zhang)幅(fu)低于出(chu)廠環(huan)(huan)節(jie)和(he)批(pi)發環(huan)(huan)節(jie)，主要原因：一(yi)是現在出(chu)售的(de)多為去(qu)冬購進的(de)稍低價(jia)(jia)位(wei)肥，近期(qi)進肥較少(shao)；二是目前(qian)尚未到(dao)春耕用肥高峰期(qi)，農民購肥少(shao)，價(jia)(jia)格未到(dao)位(wei)，隨著化(hua)(hua)肥使(shi)用高峰期(qi)的(de)到(dao)來(lai)，零售價(jia)(jia)會有(you)適度上漲(zhang)的(de)可(ke)能。

　　按以上農(nong)資價格漲幅測算，今年早稻(dao)每畝需(xu)增(zeng)加(jia)成(cheng)本(ben)(ben)支(zhi)(zhi)出(chu)(chu)約10元，其中尿素10斤(jin)增(zeng)加(jia)成(cheng)本(ben)(ben)支(zhi)(zhi)出(chu)(chu)1.5元，碳銨60斤(jin)增(zeng)加(jia)成(cheng)本(ben)(ben)支(zhi)(zhi)出(chu)(chu)1.5元，磷(lin)肥60斤(jin)增(zeng)加(jia)成(cheng)本(ben)(ben)支(zhi)(zhi)出(chu)(chu)2.1元，鉀肥10斤(jin)增(zeng)加(jia)成(cheng)本(ben)(ben)支(zhi)(zhi)出(chu)(chu)2.0元，種子增(zeng)加(jia)成(cheng)本(ben)(ben)支(zhi)(zhi)出(chu)(chu)2.0元，農(nong)藥(yao)增(zeng)加(jia)成(cheng)本(ben)(ben)支(zhi)(zhi)出(chu)(chu)0.5元。

　　農(nong)(nong)資(zi)(zi)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)特別是化肥(fei)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)的(de)大幅(fu)度上(shang)(shang)(shang)漲，其主要原因是受(shou)生(sheng)產化肥(fei)原料用煤(mei)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)暴漲拉動生(sheng)產成本(ben)直線上(shang)(shang)(shang)升影(ying)(ying)響所(suo)致。如市(shi)氮(dan)肥(fei)廠生(sheng)產用煤(mei)到(dao)廠價(jia)(jia)由去年(nian)同期的(de)196元/噸(dun)(dun)漲至(zhi)目前(qian)的(de)410元/噸(dun)(dun)，當中有整頓(dun)運輸(shu)超載增加運費成本(ben)的(de)因素，但(dan)主要是原煤(mei)出礦價(jia)(jia)上(shang)(shang)(shang)漲所(suo)致。種子價(jia)(jia)格(ge)上(shang)(shang)(shang)漲主要受(shou)糧、種比價(jia)(jia)關系拉動的(de)影(ying)(ying)響所(suo)致。部分農(nong)(nong)藥價(jia)(jia)格(ge)上(shang)(shang)(shang)揚主要是受(shou)原料藥漲價(jia)(jia)的(de)影(ying)(ying)響。從目前(qian)農(nong)(nong)資(zi)(zi)市(shi)場情況走(zou)勢分析(xi)看(kan)；由于(yu)今年(nian)雨季提前(qian)到(dao)來，發電(dian)用煤(mei)趨緩，煤(mei)價(jia)(jia)已(yi)呈(cheng)穩定趨降情形(xing)，化肥(fei)生(sheng)產成本(ben)有望小幅(fu)降低(di)，其出廠價(jia)(jia)再上(shang)(shang)(shang)漲的(de)可能性(xing)不大。鑒于(yu)全市(shi)當前(qian)農(nong)(nong)資(zi)(zi)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)總體(ti)水平已(yi)處于(yu)較(jiao)高(gao)價(jia)(jia)位，其整體(ti)大幅(fu)暴漲的(de)可能性(xing)極(ji)少，加之(zhi)現有庫存量大，國內貨源(yuan)又較(jiao)充裕，且隨著政府對市(shi)場價(jia)(jia)格(ge)監(jian)管(guan)的(de)力度加大，預計今年(nian)春(chun)耕(geng)市(shi)場農(nong)(nong)資(zi)(zi)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)會呈(cheng)前(qian)高(gao)后(hou)低(di)走(zou)勢，即(ji)春(chun)耕(geng)前(qian)期價(jia)(jia)格(ge)呈(cheng)穩中趨升，春(chun)耕(geng)后(hou)期將(jiang)呈(cheng)穩中趨降勢頭。