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近日，全國(guo)農技(ji)中心在(zai)四川(chuan)省(sheng)成都市(shi)召開(kai)了(le)全國(guo)農作(zuo)(zuo)物種(zhong)子產供(gong)需形勢(shi)分析秋(qiu)季(ji)例會。會議(yi)調度了(le)秋(qiu)冬種(zhong)作(zuo)(zuo)物種(zhong)子的制繁(fan)種(zhong)面積及其田(tian)間生長情況，分析了(le)2019年農作(zuo)(zuo)物種(zhong)子產供(gong)需形勢(shi)、種(zhong)子市(shi)場運行特點(dian)以及未(wei)來發展(zhan)趨勢(shi)，部署了(le)下(xia)階段種(zhong)業信息工作(zuo)(zuo)的重點(dian)任務。
根據會議紀(ji)要，2019年玉米種(zhong)子(zi)過(guo)剩(sheng)狀況(kuang)繼續好(hao)轉，明年期末庫(ku)存將降至(zhi)安全線內，雜交稻(dao)種(zhong)子(zi)過(guo)剩(sheng)狀況(kuang)不(bu)容樂觀。
一、春(chun)夏(xia)播作物種子生產結果
雜交玉米
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今年全(quan)國(guo)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)收獲(huo)面積(ji)256萬畝(mu)，比去(qu)年增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加19萬畝(mu)，增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)幅為8%，其中(zhong)大田玉米(mi)227萬畝(mu)，青貯玉米(mi)26萬畝(mu)，鮮食(shi)玉米(mi)3萬畝(mu)。新產種(zhong)(zhong)子9.9億公(gong)斤(jin)(jin)，比去(qu)年增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加0.68億公(gong)斤(jin)(jin)，增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)幅為7%。玉米(mi)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)面積(ji)在連(lian)續兩年大幅調減(jian)后，綜合(he)用(yong)種(zhong)(zhong)面積(ji)回升、市場(chang)(chang)需求回暖、庫存壓力減(jian)輕等(deng)有利因素(su)，促使企業理性(xing)調增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)了制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)面積(ji)。盡管四川基(ji)地遭受(shou)重災大幅減(jian)產，但甘肅、新疆等(deng)主(zhu)要基(ji)地總體表現優于正常年份，全(quan)國(guo)平均(jun)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)單產仍達到387公(gong)斤(jin)(jin)/畝(mu)，處于歷史(shi)較高水平。制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)結(jie)構(gou)繼續呈現品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)數量增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)多(duo)、品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)平均(jun)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)面積(ji)下(xia)降(jiang)趨勢，抗熱性(xing)差的(de)美(mei)系血緣品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)面積(ji)調減(jian)，同時制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)萬畝(mu)以上的(de)品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)數量回升，鄭單958等(deng)經受(shou)住市場(chang)(chang)檢驗的(de)大品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)、宜籽粒機(ji)收品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)面積(ji)調增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)。
雜交稻
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全(quan)國制(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)收獲面(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)138萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)，比(bi)(bi)去(qu)年(nian)(nian)調減(jian)31萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)，減(jian)幅為18%；其中(zhong)(zhong)早稻18萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)、中(zhong)(zhong)稻85萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)、晚(wan)(wan)稻35萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)，分(fen)別比(bi)(bi)去(qu)年(nian)(nian)減(jian)少(shao)15萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)、12萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)、4萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)，減(jian)幅分(fen)別為46%、12%、10%；兩(liang)系(xi)制(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)收獲面(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)58萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)，三系(xi)制(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)收獲面(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)80萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)，分(fen)別比(bi)(bi)去(qu)年(nian)(nian)減(jian)少(shao)17萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)、14萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)。單產(chan)為173公(gong)(gong)斤/畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)，略高于(yu)與去(qu)年(nian)(nian)，處于(yu)歷(li)史較高水(shui)平。全(quan)國新產(chan)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子約2.4億公(gong)(gong)斤，比(bi)(bi)去(qu)年(nian)(nian)減(jian)少(shao)18%，其中(zhong)(zhong)新產(chan)早稻種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子3166萬(wan)公(gong)(gong)斤、中(zhong)(zhong)稻種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子14647萬(wan)公(gong)(gong)斤、晚(wan)(wan)稻種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子5959萬(wan)公(gong)(gong)斤，分(fen)別比(bi)(bi)去(qu)年(nian)(nian)減(jian)少(shao)50%、5%、16%；兩(liang)系(xi)稻新產(chan)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子9890萬(wan)公(gong)(gong)斤，三系(xi)稻新產(chan)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子13882萬(wan)公(gong)(gong)斤，分(fen)別比(bi)(bi)去(qu)年(nian)(nian)減(jian)少(shao)22%、14%。會議認為，雜交水(shui)稻種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)業進入結構(gou)轉型陣痛(tong)期。C兩(liang)優(you)系(xi)列(lie)等(deng)(deng)近年(nian)(nian)推廣(guang)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)大(da)但優(you)質特(te)點不(bu)突(tu)出(chu)的品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)、Ⅱ優(you)系(xi)列(lie)和岡優(you)系(xi)列(lie)等(deng)(deng)推廣(guang)時間較長的普通品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)制(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)大(da)幅下(xia)降(jiang)，野香優(you)系(xi)列(lie)等(deng)(deng)優(you)質稻品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)、甬優(you)系(xi)列(lie)等(deng)(deng)產(chan)量優(you)勢品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)制(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)穩中(zhong)(zhong)有升。
其他主要(yao)作物
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全(quan)國常(chang)規稻繁(fan)(fan)(fan)(fan)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)收(shou)(shou)(shou)獲(huo)面(mian)積173萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)，比(bi)(bi)去(qu)(qu)年(nian)略增(zeng)2萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)，黑龍江、湖北、江西部分(fen)基地因(yin)暴雨等不利天氣影(ying)響造成單產(chan)下降，收(shou)(shou)(shou)獲(huo)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子8.64億(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)公(gong)(gong)(gong)斤，比(bi)(bi)去(qu)(qu)年(nian)減(jian)少0.18億(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)公(gong)(gong)(gong)斤。大豆繁(fan)(fan)(fan)(fan)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)收(shou)(shou)(shou)獲(huo)371萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)，比(bi)(bi)去(qu)(qu)年(nian)增(zeng)加(jia)48萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)，主要基地除黑龍江因(yin)低(di)溫連(lian)陰雨、山東因(yin)前期干旱(han)導致(zhi)單產(chan)略有下降外，河南(nan)、安徽、內(nei)蒙等省均明顯好(hao)于去(qu)(qu)年(nian)，收(shou)(shou)(shou)獲(huo)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子5.75億(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)公(gong)(gong)(gong)斤，比(bi)(bi)去(qu)(qu)年(nian)增(zeng)加(jia)0.87億(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)公(gong)(gong)(gong)斤。棉(mian)花繁(fan)(fan)(fan)(fan)制種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)收(shou)(shou)(shou)獲(huo)面(mian)積147萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)，收(shou)(shou)(shou)獲(huo)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子15310萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)公(gong)(gong)(gong)斤，分(fen)別比(bi)(bi)去(qu)(qu)年(nian)增(zeng)加(jia)27萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)、3121萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)公(gong)(gong)(gong)斤，連(lian)續兩(liang)年(nian)大幅增(zeng)長；其(qi)中雜交棉(mian)制種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)收(shou)(shou)(shou)獲(huo)1.37萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)、產(chan)量109.1萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)公(gong)(gong)(gong)斤，常(chang)規棉(mian)繁(fan)(fan)(fan)(fan)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)收(shou)(shou)(shou)獲(huo)146.07萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)、產(chan)量15200.8萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)公(gong)(gong)(gong)斤。馬鈴薯繁(fan)(fan)(fan)(fan)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)收(shou)(shou)(shou)獲(huo)面(mian)積308萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)，收(shou)(shou)(shou)獲(huo)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)薯55.6億(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)公(gong)(gong)(gong)斤，分(fen)別比(bi)(bi)去(qu)(qu)年(nian)減(jian)少130萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)、16.9億(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)公(gong)(gong)(gong)斤。春(chun)小麥繁(fan)(fan)(fan)(fan)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)收(shou)(shou)(shou)獲(huo)面(mian)積74萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)，收(shou)(shou)(shou)獲(huo)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子2.52億(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)公(gong)(gong)(gong)斤，分(fen)別比(bi)(bi)去(qu)(qu)年(nian)減(jian)少13.2萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)、0.34億(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)公(gong)(gong)(gong)斤。春(chun)油菜繁(fan)(fan)(fan)(fan)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)收(shou)(shou)(shou)獲(huo)面(mian)積9.04萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)，收(shou)(shou)(shou)獲(huo)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子1158萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)公(gong)(gong)(gong)斤，分(fen)別比(bi)(bi)去(qu)(qu)年(nian)增(zeng)加(jia)2.57萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)、357萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)公(gong)(gong)(gong)斤。
二、2020年春夏(xia)播作物種子(zi)供需形勢
（一）雜(za)交(jiao)玉米(mi)種子產需基(ji)本平衡，庫存回到合理水平。
從(cong)總(zong)供(gong)給看，本期末有(you)效(xiao)庫(ku)存(cun)為(wei)6.5億(yi)公(gong)斤左(zuo)右，加上今年新(xin)產(chan)種(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)9.9億(yi)公(gong)斤，明(ming)年春夏播(bo)玉(yu)米(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)種(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)總(zong)供(gong)給量(liang)約為(wei)16.4億(yi)公(gong)斤。從(cong)總(zong)需(xu)(xu)(xu)求(qiu)看，今年玉(yu)米(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)商品糧價格(ge)(ge)穩(wen)步回(hui)(hui)升(sheng)，預計(ji)今后一段時間仍將(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)穩(wen)中有(you)升(sheng)，玉(yu)米(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)種(zhong)(zhong)植(zhi)效(xiao)益將(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)進一步提高，勢(shi)必(bi)推高農民種(zhong)(zhong)植(zhi)玉(yu)米(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)積(ji)極(ji)性，加之在(zai)超級(ji)“豬周(zhou)期”影響下國家(jia)鼓勵生豬養(yang)殖將(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)拉動飼用玉(yu)米(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)需(xu)(xu)(xu)求(qiu)，中美貿易(yi)摩(mo)擦(ca)趨緩將(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)擴大(da)大(da)豆(dou)進口，預計(ji)明(ming)年玉(yu)米(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)種(zhong)(zhong)植(zhi)面積(ji)仍有(you)所(suo)增加，考慮到(dao)畝用種(zhong)(zhong)量(liang)將(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)穩(wen)中有(you)降(jiang)(jiang)，預計(ji)商品種(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)需(xu)(xu)(xu)求(qiu)量(liang)在(zai)10.6億(yi)公(gong)斤左(zuo)右，明(ming)年春夏播(bo)結束后期末庫(ku)存(cun)將(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)下降(jiang)(jiang)到(dao)5.5億(yi)公(gong)斤左(zuo)右，期末庫(ku)存(cun)量(liang)與年度(du)需(xu)(xu)(xu)種(zhong)(zhong)量(liang)比率(lv)回(hui)(hui)落到(dao)52%，該比率(lv)近8年來首次(ci)進入(ru)30%－60%的(de)(de)安全區(qu)。由于四川基地(di)嚴重減產(chan)，西南地(di)區(qu)要關注貴(gui)州調減玉(yu)米(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)政策的(de)(de)力度(du)，防止部分地(di)區(qu)出現(xian)個別(bie)類(lei)型(xing)種(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)供(gong)應(ying)偏緊風險(xian)。從(cong)市場(chang)(chang)走勢(shi)看，預計(ji)種(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)市場(chang)(chang)將(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)繼續回(hui)(hui)暖，宜籽粒機(ji)收品種(zhong)(zhong)市場(chang)(chang)份額將(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)明(ming)顯(xian)擴大(da)；品種(zhong)(zhong)價格(ge)(ge)分化(hua)趨勢(shi)更加明(ming)顯(xian)，品牌(pai)化(hua)、區(qu)域(yu)特色強、耐熱性好、市場(chang)(chang)綜合表現(xian)穩(wen)定的(de)(de)品種(zhong)(zhong)價格(ge)(ge)將(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)穩(wen)中有(you)升(sheng)。
（二）雜交水稻(dao)種子依然供過于求，行(xing)業轉(zhuan)型壓力加大(da)。
從總供給看(kan)，今年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)雜(za)交(jiao)水(shui)(shui)稻(dao)制(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)面積大(da)幅(fu)回(hui)調(diao)，單(dan)產略高于去年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)，新收獲種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)2.4億(yi)(yi)公(gong)(gong)斤，加(jia)上期(qi)末有(you)效庫存1.6億(yi)(yi)公(gong)(gong)斤左右(you)，明(ming)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)可(ke)供種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)總量仍(reng)保(bao)(bao)持(chi)4億(yi)(yi)公(gong)(gong)斤左右(you)高位(wei)。從總需(xu)求看(kan)，優(you)質常規稻(dao)擠壓效應持(chi)續(xu)(xu)，直播(bo)稻(dao)、雙(shuang)改單(dan)、再生稻(dao)面積將繼(ji)續(xu)(xu)增加(jia)，稻(dao)田綜合種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)養在(zai)一定程度上變向調(diao)低(di)水(shui)(shui)稻(dao)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)植(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)面積；同(tong)時今年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)維持(chi)去年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)最低(di)收購(gou)價(jia)水(shui)(shui)平(ping)，但(dan)實際收購(gou)中部分地區達不到該收購(gou)價(jia)格，加(jia)之水(shui)(shui)稻(dao)實現(xian)大(da)規模(mo)優(you)質優(you)價(jia)仍(reng)需(xu)時日(ri)，農民種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)植(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)水(shui)(shui)稻(dao)的(de)比較效益和(he)積極性持(chi)續(xu)(xu)處于低(di)迷狀(zhuang)態，預計雜(za)交(jiao)水(shui)(shui)稻(dao)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)植(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)面積繼(ji)續(xu)(xu)小幅(fu)調(diao)減，畝用種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)量保(bao)(bao)持(chi)穩(wen)(wen)定，明(ming)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)總用種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)量在(zai)2.1－2.2億(yi)(yi)公(gong)(gong)斤左右(you)，出(chu)口穩(wen)(wen)定在(zai)3000萬公(gong)(gong)斤左右(you)，期(qi)末余種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)仍(reng)1.6億(yi)(yi)公(gong)(gong)斤左右(you)，供過(guo)于求的(de)程度不減。從市場走勢(shi)看(kan)，全國(guo)雜(za)交(jiao)水(shui)(shui)稻(dao)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)市場滯銷品種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)大(da)規模(mo)轉商出(chu)清(qing)、優(you)質品種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)市場規模(mo)迅(xun)速(su)擴張并行的(de)態勢(shi)已經(jing)確立，水(shui)(shui)稻(dao)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)業結(jie)構轉型(xing)陣(zhen)痛加(jia)劇，庫存積壓品種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)的(de)市場份(fen)額繼(ji)續(xu)(xu)大(da)幅(fu)下降，優(you)質食味品種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)份(fen)額持(chi)續(xu)(xu)加(jia)大(da)、擴張速(su)度或更加(jia)迅(xun)猛，種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)價(jia)格分化繼(ji)續(xu)(xu)加(jia)劇，但(dan)各地需(xu)重點關注優(you)質品種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)大(da)面積種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)植(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)蘊(yun)藏(zang)的(de)生產風(feng)險。
（三）其他作物種子供需平衡(heng)有(you)余。
受(shou)優(you)質稻持續快速(su)發(fa)展、“種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)+”全產業鏈融合發(fa)展模式(shi)實(shi)踐(jian)增多、“水稻+”新型生產模式(shi)推廣范圍擴大(da)(da)等因素影響，預計(ji)明(ming)年(nian)常(chang)規稻種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)植(zhi)面積穩中有增，商(shang)品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)需(xu)(xu)求量7.3億公斤左右，常(chang)規稻種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)供給(gei)平(ping)衡有余；今(jin)(jin)年(nian)大(da)(da)豆(dou)(dou)(dou)振(zhen)興政(zheng)策(ce)從醞釀到落地持續發(fa)力，雖然中美貿易摩擦緩(huan)和會在一定(ding)程度上影響推進(jin)速(su)度，但(dan)國(guo)家(jia)復興大(da)(da)豆(dou)(dou)(dou)產業的政(zheng)策(ce)決心不變，預計(ji)明(ming)年(nian)大(da)(da)豆(dou)(dou)(dou)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)植(zhi)面積繼續調增，幅度大(da)(da)小仍需(xu)(xu)視玉(yu)米大(da)(da)豆(dou)(dou)(dou)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)植(zhi)比較效益和政(zheng)策(ce)力度而(er)定(ding)，預計(ji)商(shang)品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)需(xu)(xu)求量或將達到5億公斤左右，今(jin)(jin)年(nian)新產大(da)(da)豆(dou)(dou)(dou)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)能保證明(ming)年(nian)用種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)需(xu)(xu)求；綜合考慮棉(mian)花價格(ge)補貼(tie)政(zheng)策(ce)延續實(shi)施的可能性和商(shang)品(pin)棉(mian)市(shi)場(chang)處(chu)于(yu)景氣區間，預計(ji)明(ming)年(nian)棉(mian)花種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)植(zhi)面積將基(ji)本(ben)穩定(ding)，按(an)常(chang)規棉(mian)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)植(zhi)面積4366萬(wan)畝(mu)，雜交(jiao)棉(mian)740萬(wan)畝(mu)測算(suan)，共(gong)需(xu)(xu)商(shang)品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)9634萬(wan)公斤，棉(mian)花種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)供給(gei)總量18097萬(wan)公斤，種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)供給(gei)顯著大(da)(da)于(yu)需(xu)(xu)求。
三、秋冬種(zhong)(zhong)作物種(zhong)(zhong)子市場及繁種(zhong)(zhong)落實情況
冬小麥
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今(jin)(jin)年(nian)(nian)小麥(mai)(mai)(mai)繁種(zhong)(zhong)大豐收，種(zhong)(zhong)子供應量(liang)足質(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)優(you)，市場(chang)啟動偏晚(wan)、運行平穩、競爭激烈。黃淮(huai)海麥(mai)(mai)(mai)區(qu)(qu)、長江(jiang)中(zhong)下(xia)游麥(mai)(mai)(mai)區(qu)(qu)商品(pin)(pin)化(hua)率普遍降低5%－10%左右，種(zhong)(zhong)子價(jia)格較去年(nian)(nian)下(xia)降，河南(nan)、安徽等省下(xia)降0.2元/公斤以上，種(zhong)(zhong)子企業(ye)壓力明(ming)顯(xian)增大；除甘肅部分地區(qu)(qu)小麥(mai)(mai)(mai)種(zhong)(zhong)子受收獲(huo)期(qi)陰雨影響，質(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)量(liang)有(you)所下(xia)降導(dao)致供應偏緊外，西北(bei)麥(mai)(mai)(mai)區(qu)(qu)和西南(nan)麥(mai)(mai)(mai)區(qu)(qu)價(jia)格總(zong)體與去年(nian)(nian)持(chi)平略(lve)降。隨著農業(ye)綠色高(gao)質(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)量(liang)發展加快推進(jin)，市場(chang)對(dui)抗(kang)赤霉病、優(you)質(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)高(gao)產(chan)、特色專用的(de)強(qiang)筋、中(zhong)強(qiang)筋、弱筋小麥(mai)(mai)(mai)品(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)的(de)需求進(jin)一步(bu)加大，區(qu)(qu)域特色的(de)節(jie)水小麥(mai)(mai)(mai)品(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)需求進(jin)一步(bu)提高(gao)。本季落(luo)實(shi)冬小麥(mai)(mai)(mai)繁種(zhong)(zhong)面積(ji)1118.52萬畝，與今(jin)(jin)年(nian)(nian)7月繁種(zhong)(zhong)收獲(huo)面積(ji)基本持(chi)平，預計產(chan)種(zhong)(zhong)52億公斤。預計明(ming)年(nian)(nian)冬小麥(mai)(mai)(mai)種(zhong)(zhong)植面積(ji)基本穩定(ding)，預產(chan)小麥(mai)(mai)(mai)種(zhong)(zhong)子可滿足明(ming)年(nian)(nian)供種(zhong)(zhong)需求。
冬油菜
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今年(nian)冬油(you)(you)菜種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子市場啟動正(zheng)常(chang)，種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子供應充足(zu)，品(pin)(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)類型豐富，各油(you)(you)菜主產(chan)區(qu)主導(dao)品(pin)(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)系(xi)列穩定(ding)。種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子價(jia)格(ge)除四川小幅上(shang)升(sheng)(sheng)外，其(qi)他主產(chan)區(qu)總體與(yu)去年(nian)持平(ping)，品(pin)(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)間價(jia)格(ge)分化明顯，“雙低”油(you)(you)菜品(pin)(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)、出油(you)(you)率高、適宜機(ji)收的品(pin)(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)受農戶(hu)青睞，價(jia)格(ge)持續走高。當前，受主產(chan)區(qu)持續干旱導(dao)致無法播(bo)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)影(ying)響，農戶(hu)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子退貨量(liang)或有所增加(jia)，需引起(qi)各地(di)高度關(guan)注。本季(ji)落實(shi)冬油(you)(you)菜繁種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)面(mian)積16.35萬畝(mu)(mu)(mu)，比(bi)今年(nian)7月繁種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)收獲增加(jia)0.3萬畝(mu)(mu)(mu)。其(qi)中，雜交冬油(you)(you)菜繁種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)面(mian)積達到(dao)13.42萬畝(mu)(mu)(mu)，預(yu)計產(chan)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)1323萬公(gong)斤，常(chang)規冬油(you)(you)菜2.93萬畝(mu)(mu)(mu)，預(yu)計產(chan)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)432萬公(gong)斤。受種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)植效(xiao)益和(he)農村(cun)產(chan)業多元化發展影(ying)響，預(yu)計明年(nian)冬油(you)(you)菜種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)植面(mian)積將穩中有升(sheng)(sheng)，直播(bo)等(deng)輕簡化栽(zai)培面(mian)積也將擴大，種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子需求量(liang)呈上(shang)升(sheng)(sheng)趨勢，明年(nian)秋冬種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)油(you)(you)菜種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子供需平(ping)衡有余。
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