5月中旬(xun)，省(sheng)農業廳組織省(sheng)農科院植保所、省(sheng)農業氣象中心(xin)以(yi)及部(bu)分(fen)市（州(zhou)）植保專家對2015年(nian)大(da)春(chun)(chun)作(zuo)物(wu)主要病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)草(cao)(cao)害發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)趨勢進行(xing)了會商分(fen)析。根據(ju)全省(sheng)大(da)春(chun)(chun)作(zuo)物(wu)品種布局(ju)(ju)、當前病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)基數以(yi)及未來氣候趨勢，結合歷年(nian)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)草(cao)(cao)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)情況(kuang)等(deng)(deng)因素，預計(ji)2015年(nian)全省(sheng)大(da)春(chun)(chun)作(zuo)物(wu)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)草(cao)(cao)害整體偏(pian)重(zhong)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)害重(zhong)于病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)害。其中水(shui)稻(dao)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)害偏(pian)重(zhong)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(4級(ji))，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)(ji)6000萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)次; 玉米(mi)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)害中等(deng)(deng)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)（3級(ji))，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)(ji)2000萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)次；西(xi)藏(zang)飛(fei)蝗中等(deng)(deng)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，局(ju)(ju)部(bu)偏(pian)重(zhong)(3（4）級(ji))，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)(ji)120萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)；馬鈴(ling)薯(shu)晚(wan)疫病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)中等(deng)(deng)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，局(ju)(ju)部(bu)偏(pian)重(zhong)（3（4）級(ji)），發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)(ji)200萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)；雜(za)草(cao)(cao)中等(deng)(deng)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)（3級(ji))，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)(ji)3500萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)。大(da)春(chun)(chun)作(zuo)物(wu)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)害以(yi)水(shui)稻(dao)螟(ming)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)、稻(dao)飛(fei)虱(shi)、稻(dao)瘟病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)、稻(dao)曲病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)、紋(wen)枯(ku)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)、玉米(mi)螟(ming)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)、玉米(mi)葉斑病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)、玉米(mi)紋(wen)枯(ku)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)、西(xi)藏(zang)飛(fei)蝗和馬鈴(ling)薯(shu)晚(wan)疫病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)等(deng)(deng)為(wei)(wei)主。大(da)春(chun)(chun)作(zuo)物(wu)田間雜(za)草(cao)(cao)以(yi)稗(bai)草(cao)(cao)、碎(sui)米(mi)莎草(cao)(cao)、陌上菜、空(kong)心(xin)蓮子草(cao)(cao)、馬唐(tang)、牛(niu)筋草(cao)(cao)、光(guang)頭稗(bai)、辣(la)子草(cao)(cao)、鐵(tie)莧菜等(deng)(deng)為(wei)(wei)主。
一、發生趨(qu)勢
（一）水(shui)稻(dao)病蟲害
水稻(dao)螟(ming)蟲(chong)預計偏重(zhong)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，局部(bu)大(da)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(4（5）級(ji))，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)3300萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)次(ci)。其中(zhong)二化(hua)螟(ming)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)3000萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)次(ci);三(san)化(hua)螟(ming)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)300萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)次(ci)，近年三(san)化(hua)螟(ming)在我(wo)省的發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)呈上升趨(qu)勢，重(zhong)發(fa)(fa)區域為攀西(xi)及川(chuan)西(xi)北(bei)、川(chuan)中(zhong)部(bu)分地區。稻(dao)飛虱(shi)預計中(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，川(chuan)東、川(chuan)南(nan)(nan)局部(bu)偏重(zhong)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(3（4）級(ji))，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)350萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)次(ci)。稻(dao)縱卷葉螟(ming)預計中(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，川(chuan)東、川(chuan)南(nan)(nan)局部(bu)偏重(zhong)(3（4）級(ji))，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)200萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)次(ci)。
稻(dao)瘟病預(yu)計(ji)中等發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，局部偏(pian)重發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)（3（4）級(ji)），發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面積(ji)300萬畝次，重發(fa)(fa)區域為盆地東北部和盆周局部深丘區。稻(dao)曲(qu)病預(yu)計(ji)偏(pian)重發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(4級(ji))，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面積(ji)300萬畝。水稻(dao)紋枯病預(yu)計(ji)偏(pian)重發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(4級(ji))，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面積(ji)1000萬畝。
（二）玉米病蟲害(hai)
預(yu)計(ji)中(zhong)(zhong)等發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(3級)，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)2000萬(wan)畝次。其(qi)中(zhong)(zhong)玉米(mi)螟蟲(chong)預(yu)計(ji)偏(pian)重發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(4級)，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)650萬(wan)畝次；玉米(mi)紋枯病(bing)預(yu)計(ji)中(zhong)(zhong)等發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(3級)，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)400萬(wan)畝；玉米(mi)葉斑病(bing)預(yu)計(ji)中(zhong)(zhong)等發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，局部偏(pian)重(3（4）級)，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)400萬(wan)畝。
（三）西藏飛蝗
預計中等(deng)發(fa)生(sheng)，局部偏(pian)重（3（4）級），發(fa)生(sheng)面積120萬畝，金沙江、雅礱江上游局部河谷(gu)可能出現高密度點(dian)片。
（四）馬(ma)鈴(ling)薯晚疫病
預計(ji)中等發生(sheng)，攀西地區及(ji)盆周(zhou)山區偏重發生(sheng)（3（4）級(ji)），發生(sheng)面積200萬畝。
（五(wu)）水稻田(tian)雜草
預(yu)計中等發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(3級)，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面積(ji)2000萬(wan)畝。成都平原稻區以稗草(cao)(cao)、碎米莎(sha)草(cao)(cao)、陌上(shang)菜、水莧菜為主，局部(bu)田(tian)塊空(kong)(kong)心蓮(lian)子草(cao)(cao)、千金子、異型莎(sha)草(cao)(cao)、雙穗(sui)雀稗、水綿預(yu)計發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)較重。盆地丘陵及淺山(shan)稻區以稗草(cao)(cao)、鴨舌草(cao)(cao)、陌上(shang)菜、野(ye)慈姑為主，局部(bu)田(tian)塊空(kong)(kong)心蓮(lian)子草(cao)(cao)、眼子菜、雙穗(sui)雀稗、野(ye)荸薺(qi)、節節菜預(yu)計發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)較重。
（六）玉米地雜草
預計(ji)中等發生(sheng)（3級），發生(sheng)面積1500萬畝。成都(dou)平(ping)原玉米田(tian)以(yi)馬唐、碎(sui)米莎草(cao)、牛筋草(cao)、辣子(zi)草(cao)、凹(ao)(ao)頭莧(xian)、鐵莧(xian)菜(cai)、通泉草(cao)、扁穗莎草(cao)為(wei)(wei)主，局部田(tian)塊空心(xin)蓮子(zi)草(cao)、蟣子(zi)草(cao)、光(guang)頭稗預計(ji)發生(sheng)較重。盆地(di)丘陵及淺山玉米田(tian)以(yi)馬唐、空心(xin)蓮子(zi)草(cao)、辣子(zi)草(cao)、光(guang)頭稗、凹(ao)(ao)頭莧(xian)、藜(li)、鐵莧(xian)菜(cai)為(wei)(wei)主，局部田(tian)塊刺兒(er)菜(cai)、馬蘭、飯苞草(cao)、香附子(zi)、艾蒿、打(da)碗花預計(ji)發生(sheng)較重。
二、預測依據
（一）病蟲害基數整體偏高
1、螟蟲(chong)冬(dong)后基(ji)數(shu)整體(ti)高(gao)于近年(nian)(nian)及(ji)(ji)上年(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)期(qi)。據全省34個縣站冬(dong)后調查數(shu)據顯示，二化螟、大螟冬(dong)后基(ji)數(shu)高(gao)于近年(nian)(nian)及(ji)(ji)上年(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)期(qi)，畝平均活(huo)蟲(chong)數(shu)為1895.9頭、283.4頭，分別比近年(nian)(nian)高(gao)22.7%、16.6%，比上年(nian)(nian)高(gao)16.9%、17.1%。三化螟較近年(nian)(nian)及(ji)(ji)上年(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)期(qi)偏低(di)，畝平均活(huo)蟲(chong)數(shu)741.6頭，低(di)于近年(nian)(nian)、上年(nian)(nian)19.3%、15.5%。
2、水稻二化螟見蛾(e)(e)早，田(tian)(tian)間(jian)卵(luan)量、蟲(chong)量較大(da)，當前局部(bu)田(tian)(tian)間(jian)危害較重。據全省(sheng)監測站(zhan)點調(diao)查，2015年(nian)(nian)水稻螟蟲(chong)3月(yue)下旬至(zhi)4月(yue)上(shang)旬各地燈(deng)下陸(lu)續(xu)見蛾(e)(e)，比(bi)近(jin)(jin)年(nian)(nian)見蛾(e)(e)時間(jian)平均(jun)提前10天(tian)；截至(zhi)當前平均(jun)單燈(deng)累(lei)計誘蛾(e)(e)292.3頭(tou)，比(bi)近(jin)(jin)年(nian)(nian)同(tong)期高6.8%，田(tian)(tian)間(jian)平均(jun)畝(mu)卵(luan)量110.5個，比(bi)上(shang)年(nian)(nian)、近(jin)(jin)年(nian)(nian)分別高19.2%、14.92%。田(tian)(tian)間(jian)平均(jun)活蟲(chong)數156頭(tou)/百叢，比(bi)上(shang)年(nian)(nian)、近(jin)(jin)年(nian)(nian)分別高4.7%、3.05%。當前局部(bu)地區田(tian)(tian)間(jian)枯(ku)鞘率1.48%，是上(shang)年(nian)(nian)、近(jin)(jin)年(nian)(nian)同(tong)期的2倍和4倍；枯(ku)心率0.15%，比(bi)上(shang)年(nian)(nian)、近(jin)(jin)年(nian)(nian)同(tong)期高5.6%和6.5%。
3、稻飛虱(shi)(shi)燈下(xia)(xia)見(jian)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)時(shi)間早，首遷峰出(chu)(chu)現(xian)時(shi)間早。4月(yue) 1日，我(wo)省(sheng)(sheng)在瀘州敘(xu)永(yong)縣(xian)(xian)燈下(xia)(xia)始見(jian)白背飛虱(shi)(shi)，開燈誘(you)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)2頭，屬(shu)全省(sheng)(sheng)見(jian)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)早年(nian)(nian)份，比上年(nian)(nian)始見(jian)期提前13天(tian)(tian)，比敘(xu)永(yong)歷(li)年(nian)(nian)見(jian)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)早26天(tian)(tian)，至5月(yue)7日，累計誘(you)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)35頭，比歷(li)年(nian)(nian)高(gao)(gao)54.94%，比大發生年(nian)(nian)低5.86%。合(he)江4月(yue)6日燈下(xia)(xia)始見(jian)稻飛虱(shi)(shi)，誘(you)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)1頭。古藺4月(yue)20日出(chu)(chu)現(xian)第一個遷入峰，蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)量(liang)(liang)156頭，首遷峰出(chu)(chu)現(xian)時(shi)間較近(jin)年(nian)(nian)提前20天(tian)(tian)。4月(yue)下(xia)(xia)旬興文縣(xian)(xian)秧田蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)量(liang)(liang)最高(gao)(gao)達5869頭/畝，平均蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)量(liang)(liang)1541頭/畝。相鄰貴州、云南(nan)兩省(sheng)(sheng)燈下(xia)(xia)見(jian)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)早、峰次較多，一些縣(xian)(xian)燈下(xia)(xia)、田間蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)量(liang)(liang)高(gao)(gao)于常年(nian)(nian)，對我(wo)省(sheng)(sheng)造成蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)源(yuan)壓力。
4、稻瘟病種子帶菌率(lv)高(gao)于(yu)近(jin)年，大面積(ji)稻(dao)瘟(wen)(wen)病菌致(zhi)病力仍(reng)較強。據 36個監測(ce)站點調(diao)查(cha)，今年稻(dao)瘟(wen)(wen)病種(zhong)子帶菌率(lv)8.88%，比(bi)近(jin)年高(gao)18.4%。根(gen)據省農科院2014年監測(ce)全省稻(dao)瘟(wen)(wen)病菌生理小種(zhong)以ZB群為優勢種(zhong)群，出(chu)現頻(pin)率(lv)為61.22％；毒力更強的ZA群小種(zhong)呈上升趨勢，從1.01%上升至15.82%。毒力頻(pin)率(lv)范圍(wei)為6.67～51.67%，較上年（11.70～74.47%）相對下降(jiang)，仍(reng)處于(yu)致(zhi)病力較強水平(ping)。
5、玉米螟(ming)(ming)蟲始見期(qi)偏(pian)晚(wan)，蛾量(liang)、卵(luan)量(liang)與近(jin)年(nian)相(xiang)當(dang)。受4月上旬(xun)強降(jiang)溫天氣過程的(de)影響，玉米螟(ming)(ming)燈下見蛾時間(jian)晚(wan)于近(jin)年(nian)；平均燈下蛾量(liang)14.83頭，田間(jian)平均卵(luan)塊密度1.44塊/百株，與近(jin)年(nian)相(xiang)當(dang)。
6、盆(pen)地(di)內(nei)馬鈴薯晚(wan)疫(yi)病(bing)發病(bing)輕于近年。當前全省(sheng)馬鈴薯晚(wan)疫(yi)病(bing)平(ping)均病(bing)株率(lv)9.4%、平(ping)均病(bing)指3.4，分別比近5年均值低34.5%和42.4%。
7、西(xi)(xi)藏(zang)飛(fei)蝗(huang)殘蝗(huang)面(mian)積大(da)、殘蝗(huang)密(mi)(mi)度(du)高、越(yue)冬基數大(da)、越(yue)冬死(si)亡率低。川(chuan)西(xi)(xi)高原農區2014年(nian)西(xi)(xi)藏(zang)飛(fei)蝗(huang)殘蝗(huang)面(mian)積比2013年(nian)高16%；平(ping)均(jun)(jun)殘蝗(huang)密(mi)(mi)度(du)6.6頭(tou)/畝，略高于(yu)近年(nian)均(jun)(jun)值。2015年(nian)冬后基數調查，西(xi)(xi)藏(zang)飛(fei)蝗(huang)平(ping)均(jun)(jun)卵密(mi)(mi)度(du)23粒/m2，為2012年(nian)以來最高；越(yue)冬卵死(si)亡率17%，比上年(nian)低8.1%。
（二）品(pin)種抗(kang)性總體不高栽培措施利(li)于病(bing)蟲發生
1、作(zuo)物(wu)品(pin)(pin)(pin)種(zhong)抗(kang)(kang)性整體水平不高(gao)(gao)(gao)。2014年對(dui)我省137個(ge)主(zhu)栽和主(zhu)推水稻(dao)品(pin)(pin)(pin)種(zhong)稻(dao)瘟病(bing)抗(kang)(kang)性跟蹤監測結果表明(ming)，超過90%的品(pin)(pin)(pin)種(zhong)為感病(bing)品(pin)(pin)(pin)種(zhong)，其中(zhong)葉(xie)瘟高(gao)(gao)(gao)感的品(pin)(pin)(pin)種(zhong)占(zhan)72.26%，頸瘟高(gao)(gao)(gao)感的品(pin)(pin)(pin)種(zhong)占(zhan)85.4%，大(da)面積(ji)(ji)上感病(bing)品(pin)(pin)(pin)種(zhong)種(zhong)植(zhi)面積(ji)(ji)達51.5%，比近年高(gao)(gao)(gao)16.3%。玉(yu)米主(zhu)栽品(pin)(pin)(pin)種(zhong)對(dui)玉(yu)米葉(xie)斑病(bing)和紋(wen)枯(ku)病(bing)抗(kang)(kang)性不高(gao)(gao)(gao)。抗(kang)(kang)晚疫病(bing)的馬(ma)鈴薯(shu)品(pin)(pin)(pin)種(zhong)僅20%左(zuo)右。
2、部分栽(zai)培措施有利(li)病(bing)蟲(chong)發生(sheng)。全省旱育秧面積大，分蘗力強、長(chang)勢旺(wang)，適宜(yi)螟(ming)(ming)蟲(chong)、紋(wen)枯病(bing)、稻瘟(wen)病(bing)等多種(zhong)病(bing)蟲(chong)的(de)發生(sheng)。稻草覆蓋、免耕有利(li)于螟(ming)(ming)蟲(chong)越冬(dong)，增加蟲(chong)口基數(shu)，省農科院植保所調查免耕加稻草覆蓋田的(de)水(shui)稻螟(ming)(ming)蟲(chong)冬(dong)后基數(shu)較翻耕田高約14倍。玉(yu)(yu)米春(chun)、夏、秋三季(ji)種(zhong)植，二季(ji)玉(yu)(yu)米混栽(zai)，橋梁田增加，有利(li)玉(yu)(yu)米螟(ming)(ming)等發生(sheng)為害(hai)。
（三）氣象條件(jian)對(dui)大春作(zuo)物(wu)主要病蟲有利有弊
去冬今(jin)春氣候(hou)呈現(xian)出“冬暖、春不寒”的(de)特點，利于害(hai)(hai)蟲的(de)越冬孵(fu)化，導(dao)致當前(qian)螟蟲等蟲害(hai)(hai)的(de)基數偏高。
初(chu)夏（5～6月）川西高(gao)原北部(bu)(bu)、盆(pen)(pen)地(di)(di)東北部(bu)(bu)降雨(yu)(yu)量較(jiao)常(chang)年(nian)偏(pian)(pian)多(duo)1～2成，省(sheng)內其余地(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)降雨(yu)(yu)量較(jiao)常(chang)年(nian)偏(pian)(pian)少1～2成。全省(sheng)大部(bu)(bu)地(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)較(jiao)常(chang)年(nian)均值偏(pian)(pian)高(gao)0.5～1.0℃。盆(pen)(pen)地(di)(di)內有一(yi)(yi)般性夏旱發生，其中盆(pen)(pen)地(di)(di)南(nan)部(bu)(bu)、攀西地(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)偏(pian)(pian)重。川西高(gao)原雨(yu)(yu)季(ji)開始期(qi)較(jiao)常(chang)年(nian)偏(pian)(pian)早約5天(tian)，攀西地(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)雨(yu)(yu)季(ji)開始期(qi)較(jiao)常(chang)年(nian)偏(pian)(pian)晚一(yi)(yi)周左右(you)。天(tian)氣條件利(li)于(yu)水稻(dao)螟蟲、玉米(mi)螟蟲、西藏(zang)飛(fei)(fei)蝗等蟲害(hai)在全省(sheng)大部(bu)(bu)地(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)的發生，利(li)于(yu)盆(pen)(pen)地(di)(di)東北部(bu)(bu)水稻(dao)稻(dao)瘟病發生。盆(pen)(pen)地(di)(di)南(nan)部(bu)(bu)降雨(yu)(yu)量偏(pian)(pian)少，不利(li)于(yu)稻(dao)飛(fei)(fei)虱等遷飛(fei)(fei)性害(hai)蟲遷入(ru)我省(sheng)。
盛夏(xia)（7～8月）四川盆地(di)東北部(bu)地(di)區(qu)降(jiang)水(shui)(shui)量(liang)(liang)較(jiao)常(chang)年(nian)均(jun)(jun)值(zhi)偏多2～4成，盆地(di)西(xi)北部(bu)、川西(xi)高(gao)原北部(bu)地(di)區(qu)降(jiang)水(shui)(shui)量(liang)(liang)較(jiao)常(chang)年(nian)均(jun)(jun)值(zhi)偏多1～2成，其(qi)(qi)余地(di)區(qu)接近常(chang)年(nian)略(lve)偏少。盆地(di)東北部(bu)地(di)區(qu)氣(qi)溫(wen)較(jiao)常(chang)年(nian)均(jun)(jun)值(zhi)偏低(di)0.5～1.0℃；其(qi)(qi)余地(di)區(qu)氣(qi)溫(wen)較(jiao)常(chang)年(nian)均(jun)(jun)值(zhi)偏高(gao)0.5～1.0℃。盆地(di)東北部(bu)、西(xi)北部(bu)的降(jiang)水(shui)(shui)量(liang)(liang)偏多，利于穗頸瘟、稻(dao)曲病、紋(wen)枯病等(deng)水(shui)(shui)稻(dao)、玉(yu)米中后(hou)期病害的發生。
