7 月 13 － 15 日，全(quan)國(guo)農技中(zhong)(zhong)心在(zai)遼寧省沈陽市召(zhao)開了下(xia)半(ban)年(nian)全(quan)國(guo)重(zhong)大病(bing)蟲(chong)害發生趨(qu)勢(shi)會(hui)商會(hui)，來自(zi)水稻(dao)主產(chan)區(qu) 19 個省（自(zi)治(zhi)區(qu)、直轄(xia)市）植保機構的測報技術(shu)人員和有關(guan)專家根(gen)據當(dang)前病(bing)蟲(chong)基數、栽培條(tiao)件和氣候因素等綜合分析，預計中(zhong)(zhong)晚稻(dao)主要病(bing)蟲(chong)害總體呈(cheng)偏重(zhong)發生態勢(shi)，發生面積 11.1 億畝(mu)(mu)次(ci)，比(bi)(bi)上年(nian)增(zeng)加 17.3% 。其中(zhong)(zhong)，蟲(chong)害以(yi)遷(qian)飛性(xing)、鉆蛀性(xing)害蟲(chong)為主，“兩遷(qian)”害蟲(chong)偏重(zhong)發生，發生面積 7.3 億畝(mu)(mu)次(ci)，同比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)加 18.2% ；病(bing)害以(yi)稻(dao)瘟(wen)病(bing)、紋枯病(bing)為主，總體偏重(zhong)流行，發生面積 3.8 億畝(mu)(mu)次(ci)，同比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)加 15.5% 。
一(yi)、早稻和單(dan)季中稻前期病蟲害發生(sheng)概況
目前(qian)，南方早稻(dao)陸續進(jin)入成熟期(qi)(qi)(qi)，華(hua)南、西(xi)南、江南中(zhong)稻(dao)和東北單(dan)季稻(dao)處于拔(ba)節(jie)期(qi)(qi)(qi)至(zhi)幼(you)穗分(fen)化期(qi)(qi)(qi)，長江流域單(dan)季晚(wan)稻(dao)處于分(fen)蘗至(zhi)拔(ba)節(jie)期(qi)(qi)(qi)。今年(nian)(nian)(nian)上半年(nian)(nian)(nian)，水稻(dao)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)大病蟲(chong)(chong)在南方稻(dao)區(qu)總體(ti)偏重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)發(fa)(fa)生，重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)于上年(nian)(nian)(nian)，接近常年(nian)(nian)(nian)。全(quan)國主要病蟲(chong)(chong)發(fa)(fa)生面積 4.4 億(yi)畝(mu)次，其中(zhong)蟲(chong)(chong)害發(fa)(fa)生 3.3 億(yi)畝(mu)次，病害發(fa)(fa)生 1.1 億(yi)畝(mu)次。發(fa)(fa)生特點(dian)如(ru)下(xia)：
一是遷(qian)飛性害蟲遷(qian)入(ru)期(qi)早，遷(qian)入(ru)蟲量(liang)(liang)大(da)，發(fa)(fa)生程度重(zhong)于上(shang)年。稻(dao)飛虱在我(wo)國華南(nan)、西南(nan)、江(jiang)南(nan)、長(chang)江(jiang)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)下游(you)稻(dao)區(qu)遷(qian)入(ru)峰期(qi)較上(shang)年早 10-30 天(tian)；華南(nan)、西南(nan)和(he)江(jiang)南(nan)稻(dao)區(qu)主(zhu)遷(qian)峰集中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)在 4 月(yue)下旬至 5 月(yue)，長(chang)江(jiang)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)下游(you)稻(dao)區(qu) 6 月(yue)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)旬陸續監(jian)測到(dao)遷(qian)入(ru)峰，遷(qian)入(ru)蟲量(liang)(liang)是上(shang)年同期(qi)的 2-5 倍；田間蟲量(liang)(liang)前(qian)期(qi)上(shang)升迅速，總(zong)體(ti)(ti)呈偏(pian)重(zhong)發(fa)(fa)生態勢，經防(fang)控(kong)，早稻(dao)區(qu)發(fa)(fa)生為害得到(dao)有效控(kong)制(zhi)，未造成明顯損(sun)失；全(quan)國累計發(fa)(fa)生面積 1.1 億畝次，與上(shang)年同期(qi)持平。稻(dao)縱(zong)卷葉螟在華南(nan)、江(jiang)南(nan)南(nan)部(bu)偏(pian)重(zhong)發(fa)(fa)生，重(zhong)于上(shang)年，主(zhu)遷(qian)峰集中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)在 5 月(yue)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)旬至 6 月(yue)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)旬，其他(ta)稻(dao)區(qu)總(zong)體(ti)(ti)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等至偏(pian)輕發(fa)(fa)生，全(quan)國累計發(fa)(fa)生面積 7048 萬畝次，略高于去年同期(qi)。
二(er)是(shi)鉆蛀性害(hai)蟲(chong)偏(pian)重發(fa)生，略輕于上年(nian)。二(er)化螟在(zai)(zai)江南(nan)和長江中(zhong)下游稻(dao)(dao)區基(ji)數偏(pian)高，一代發(fa)生偏(pian)重，全(quan)國累計發(fa)生面積(ji) 8587 萬畝次(ci)，同(tong)比(bi)減少(shao) 7.3% 。三化螟總(zong)體(ti)偏(pian)輕發(fa)生，主要發(fa)生在(zai)(zai)華南(nan)稻(dao)(dao)區，累計發(fa)生面積(ji) 632 萬畝次(ci)，接近(jin)上年(nian)同(tong)期。
三是流行(xing)性病(bing)(bing)(bing)害(hai)點多面廣，發(fa)生程度重于上(shang)年。稻(dao)(dao)瘟病(bing)(bing)(bing)在(zai)西南(nan)、江(jiang)南(nan)、長江(jiang)中下游稻(dao)(dao)區發(fa)病(bing)(bing)(bing)縣(xian)數多、發(fa)病(bing)(bing)(bing)范圍廣、發(fa)病(bing)(bing)(bing)品(pin)種多，總體中等至偏(pian)重發(fa)生，發(fa)生程度明顯重于上(shang)年同期(qi)，全國累計發(fa)生面積 1591 萬畝次，同比增加 8.4% ；紋枯(ku)病(bing)(bing)(bing)在(zai)華南(nan)、江(jiang)南(nan)和長江(jiang)中游稻(dao)(dao)區偏(pian)重發(fa)生，局(ju)部大發(fa)生，全國累計發(fa)生面積 7701 萬畝，與常年同期(qi)接近。稻(dao)(dao)曲病(bing)(bing)(bing)、南(nan)方水(shui)稻(dao)(dao)黑條矮縮病(bing)(bing)(bing)在(zai)局(ju)部稻(dao)(dao)區發(fa)生較重。
二、中晚稻病蟲害發生趨勢(shi)預報
（一）水稻蟲害
預計稻(dao)飛虱(shi)在華南(nan)北部(bu)、江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)南(nan)和長江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)中(zhong)下游(you)稻(dao)區(qu)(qu)(qu)大(da)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，西(xi)南(nan)東(dong)部(bu)、華南(nan)南(nan)部(bu)和江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)淮稻(dao)區(qu)(qu)(qu)偏重發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji) 3.1 億(yi)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)次；稻(dao)縱卷葉螟(ming)在華南(nan)東(dong)部(bu)、江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)南(nan)和長江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)中(zhong)下游(you)稻(dao)區(qu)(qu)(qu)偏重發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，局部(bu)大(da)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，西(xi)南(nan)和江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)淮稻(dao)區(qu)(qu)(qu)中(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji) 2.1 億(yi)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)次；二化螟(ming)在西(xi)南(nan)中(zhong)北部(bu)、長江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)中(zhong)游(you)和江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)淮稻(dao)區(qu)(qu)(qu)偏重發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)南(nan)和東(dong)北稻(dao)區(qu)(qu)(qu)中(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，其他稻(dao)區(qu)(qu)(qu)偏輕發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji) 1.3 億(yi)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)次；三化螟(ming)在華南(nan)稻(dao)區(qu)(qu)(qu)偏輕發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji) 1100 萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)次；大(da)螟(ming)、灰飛虱(shi)、粘蟲等(deng)其他蟲害在部(bu)分稻(dao)區(qu)(qu)(qu)有一定程度發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji) 6500 萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)次。
（二）水稻病害
預計稻(dao)(dao)瘟病(bing)在(zai)西(xi)南(nan)(nan)(nan)東(dong)部(bu)(bu)(bu)、江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)南(nan)(nan)(nan)北部(bu)(bu)(bu)、長江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)中(zhong)下(xia)游(you)、江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)淮、東(dong)北東(dong)部(bu)(bu)(bu)常發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)區(qu)(qu)將偏(pian)重(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，其他稻(dao)(dao)區(qu)(qu)中(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面積(ji)(ji) 7500 萬(wan)畝次；紋枯病(bing)在(zai)江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)南(nan)(nan)(nan)、長江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)中(zhong)下(xia)游(you)稻(dao)(dao)區(qu)(qu)大發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，華(hua)南(nan)(nan)(nan)大部(bu)(bu)(bu)、西(xi)南(nan)(nan)(nan)東(dong)部(bu)(bu)(bu)稻(dao)(dao)區(qu)(qu)偏(pian)重(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面積(ji)(ji) 2.0 億畝；稻(dao)(dao)曲病(bing)在(zai)西(xi)南(nan)(nan)(nan)東(dong)部(bu)(bu)(bu)、江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)南(nan)(nan)(nan)、長江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)中(zhong)下(xia)游(you)、江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)淮、東(dong)北南(nan)(nan)(nan)部(bu)(bu)(bu)稻(dao)(dao)區(qu)(qu)中(zhong)等(deng)至偏(pian)重(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面積(ji)(ji) 6000 萬(wan)畝；南(nan)(nan)(nan)方水(shui)稻(dao)(dao)黑條矮縮病(bing)在(zai)華(hua)南(nan)(nan)(nan)、江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)南(nan)(nan)(nan)、西(xi)南(nan)(nan)(nan)南(nan)(nan)(nan)部(bu)(bu)(bu)稻(dao)(dao)區(qu)(qu)輕發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，局(ju)部(bu)(bu)(bu)存在(zai)偏(pian)重(zhong)流行風(feng)險，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面積(ji)(ji) 400 萬(wan)畝；水(shui)稻(dao)(dao)白葉(xie)枯病(bing)等(deng)其他病(bing)害在(zai)部(bu)(bu)(bu)分稻(dao)(dao)區(qu)(qu)有一定程度發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面積(ji)(ji) 4000 萬(wan)畝。
三、預測主要依據
（一）病蟲害發生基(ji)數
稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)飛虱在(zai)南(nan)(nan)(nan)方早(zao)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)區(qu)(qu)百叢蟲(chong)(chong)量(liang)(liang)一般 300-900 頭(tou)，可為(wei)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)晚稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)提供充足(zu)的(de)蟲(chong)(chong)源(yuan)(yuan)，加之江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)南(nan)(nan)(nan)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)和(he)西(xi)(xi)南(nan)(nan)(nan)、長江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)下(xia)(xia)游單季稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)蟲(chong)(chong)量(liang)(liang)上升較快，百叢蟲(chong)(chong)量(liang)(liang)達 200-700 頭(tou)，其(qi)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)短翅型成蟲(chong)(chong)百叢蟲(chong)(chong)量(liang)(liang) 3-4 頭(tou)，尤其(qi)在(zai)長江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)下(xia)(xia)游稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)區(qu)(qu)出現短翅型成蟲(chong)(chong)的(de)縣數(shu)為(wei)近(jin)五年最高(gao)，蟲(chong)(chong)量(liang)(liang)高(gao)于近(jin)四年同期。稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)縱卷葉螟在(zai)南(nan)(nan)(nan)方早(zao)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)區(qu)(qu)、西(xi)(xi)南(nan)(nan)(nan)南(nan)(nan)(nan)部、江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)南(nan)(nan)(nan)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)和(he)長江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)下(xia)(xia)游單季稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)畝(mu)(mu)平幼蟲(chong)(chong)量(liang)(liang)一般 3000-10000 頭(tou)；二化(hua)螟在(zai)江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)南(nan)(nan)(nan)、西(xi)(xi)南(nan)(nan)(nan)北部、長江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)游和(he)江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)淮稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)區(qu)(qu)畝(mu)(mu)殘蟲(chong)(chong)量(liang)(liang)一般 500-1500 頭(tou)，具備中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等至(zhi)偏重發(fa)生的(de)蟲(chong)(chong)源(yuan)(yuan)基數(shu)。紋枯病(bing)在(zai)大部稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)區(qu)(qu)普遍(bian)發(fa)生，稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)瘟(wen)病(bing)在(zai)西(xi)(xi)南(nan)(nan)(nan)、江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)南(nan)(nan)(nan)、長江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)下(xia)(xia)游稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)區(qu)(qu)發(fa)病(bing)縣數(shu)多、發(fa)病(bing)范圍廣(guang)、發(fa)病(bing)品種多，東北稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)區(qu)(qu)發(fa)病(bing)早(zao)、面積接近(jin)上年，田間菌源(yuan)(yuan)充足(zu)。南(nan)(nan)(nan)方水稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)黑條矮縮病(bing)在(zai)華南(nan)(nan)(nan)、西(xi)(xi)南(nan)(nan)(nan)和(he)江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)南(nan)(nan)(nan)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)區(qu)(qu)見病(bing)，可為(wei)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)晚稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)發(fa)生提供有效毒(du)源(yuan)(yuan)。
（二）水(shui)稻品種及種植制度
粗稈大(da)穗(sui)、優(you)質高產的(de)水(shui)(shui)稻(dao)主(zhu)栽(zai)品種(zhong)生(sheng)長量大(da)，易形成適溫高濕的(de)田間(jian)小氣候(hou)，有(you)利于水(shui)(shui)稻(dao)病(bing)蟲(chong)害的(de)發生(sheng)繁殖；當前(qian)，我國(guo)水(shui)(shui)稻(dao)主(zhu)栽(zai)品種(zhong)年度間(jian)差異不大(da)，造成水(shui)(shui)稻(dao)品種(zhong)抗(kang)病(bing)抗(kang)蟲(chong)性下降，如抗(kang)稻(dao)瘟病(bing)品種(zhong)占水(shui)(shui)稻(dao)種(zhong)植品種(zhong)比(bi)例已不足 20 ％，加之區域品種(zhong)單一化情況較為突(tu)出，稻(dao)瘟病(bing)、稻(dao)曲病(bing)等水(shui)(shui)稻(dao)病(bing)害大(da)面(mian)積(ji)流行風(feng)險(xian)較大(da)。在水(shui)(shui)稻(dao)種(zhong)植方面(mian)，華南、江南、長江中游稻(dao)區單、雙季稻(dao)混栽(zai)面(mian)積(ji)大(da)，栽(zai)插期、生(sheng)育(yu)期不整齊，橋梁田多，有(you)利于遷(qian)飛(fei)性害蟲(chong)遷(qian)移和螟蟲(chong)輾轉(zhuan)為害。
（三）氣象條件
據國家氣候(hou)中心預測，受厄爾尼諾現象影響，今年下半年臺風數量略(lve)偏(pian)少，但強度(du)偏(pian)強，有利于(yu)(yu)“兩遷(qian)(qian)”害蟲(chong)(chong)的北(bei)遷(qian)(qian)及(ji)細菌性(xing)病害的擴散。預計今年盛夏（ 7-8 月）在(zai)華南大部高溫（≥ 35 ℃）日數較(jiao)常年同期偏(pian)多，一(yi)定程度(du)上(shang)將抑制(zhi)晚稻(dao)(dao)上(shang)“兩遷(qian)(qian)”害蟲(chong)(chong)和水(shui)稻(dao)(dao)流行性(xing)病害的發生發展；西南東(dong)部、江南和長江流域稻(dao)(dao)區(qu)降水(shui)偏(pian)多，氣溫正常或偏(pian)高，有利于(yu)(yu)“兩遷(qian)(qian)”害蟲(chong)(chong)、水(shui)稻(dao)(dao)螟(ming)蟲(chong)(chong)的發生繁衍及(ji)稻(dao)(dao)瘟病等流行性(xing)病害的擴散蔓延；東(dong)北(bei)北(bei)部稻(dao)(dao)區(qu)可能出現階段性(xing)低(di)溫冷害，且降水(shui)偏(pian)多 2-5 成(cheng)，有利于(yu)(yu)稻(dao)(dao)瘟病的暴發流行。
（病蟲害測報處）
