2014 年(nian)(nian)，我市(shi)主(zhu)要農(nong)(nong)作(zuo)物(wu)(wu)病(bing)(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)害發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)輕于(yu)(yu)歷年(nian)(nian)，病(bing)(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)、源(yuan)(yuan)基數總體(ti)不高。但近(jin)年(nian)(nian)來相對穩定作(zuo)物(wu)(wu)種(zhong)(zhong)植結構和品種(zhong)(zhong)類別為病(bing)(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)提供了適(shi)宜生(sheng)(sheng)存的寄主(zhu)。另外，根(gen)據氣(qi)(qi)象部門監測(ce)，去年(nian)(nian) 11 月(yue)以(yi)來，我市(shi)氣(qi)(qi)溫總體(ti)偏(pian)高，極端低溫天氣(qi)(qi)少，氣(qi)(qi)象因素利于(yu)(yu)病(bing)(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)、源(yuan)(yuan)越(yue)冬。綜合以(yi)上(shang)因素，預計(ji)今(jin)年(nian)(nian)我市(shi)主(zhu)要農(nong)(nong)作(zuo)物(wu)(wu)病(bing)(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)害總體(ti)呈(cheng)中(zhong)等(deng)(deng)至(zhi)偏(pian)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，程度將重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)于(yu)(yu)上(shang)年(nian)(nian)。尤其是異常氣(qi)(qi)候(hou)將造成病(bing)(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)多發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)、重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)可行性增(zeng)加。其中(zhong)，玉米螟、棉(mian)鈴蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)、薊馬(ma)、葉螨(man)、褐斑病(bing)(bing)(bing)等(deng)(deng)將是玉米產(chan)(chan)量(liang)的主(zhu)要威(wei)脅；小(xiao)麥蚜蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)、吸漿(jiang)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)將在我市(shi)北(bei)部小(xiao)麥主(zhu)產(chan)(chan)區偏(pian)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，部分區縣麥蜘蛛發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)于(yu)(yu)近(jin)年(nian)(nian)；棉(mian)蚜、棉(mian)盲蝽(chun)、棉(mian)花(hua)黃萎病(bing)(bing)(bing)預計(ji)在棉(mian)花(hua)上(shang)中(zhong)等(deng)(deng)偏(pian)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)；水稻各類病(bing)(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)將普遍重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)于(yu)(yu)上(shang)年(nian)(nian)；粘(zhan)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)、白背飛虱、二點委夜蛾(e)等(deng)(deng)遷飛性、偶發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)性害蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)將呈(cheng)中(zhong)等(deng)(deng)程度發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)；小(xiao)地老(lao)虎(hu)等(deng)(deng)地下害蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)程度成上(shang)升趨勢。
一、玉(yu)米主要病(bing)蟲(chong)發生趨勢(shi)
預計 2015 年天(tian)津市玉(yu)米(mi)病蟲呈中(zhong)等(deng)至偏重(zhong)(zhong)程度發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面積 628 萬畝(mu)次。其(qi)中(zhong)，蟲害(hai)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面積 480 萬畝(mu)次，病害(hai)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng) 148 萬畝(mu)次。二、三代玉(yu)米(mi)螟、三代棉鈴蟲、地(di)老虎、褐斑(ban)病等(deng)將在(zai)薊縣、寶坻、武(wu)清、寧河(he)、靜海(hai)等(deng)玉(yu)米(mi)主產(chan)區(qu)、縣中(zhong)等(deng)至偏重(zhong)(zhong)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)；一代玉(yu)米(mi)螟、二代棉鈴蟲、玉(yu)米(mi)大(da)斑(ban)病、小斑(ban)病等(deng)病蟲在(zai)全市范(fan)圍(wei)內偏輕(qing)至中(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)；另(ling)外(wai)，粘蟲、二點委夜蛾等(deng)遷飛性及偶發(fa)性害(hai)蟲也有在(zai)局部地(di)塊重(zhong)(zhong)發(fa)的(de)風險(xian)。具體預報如下：
1 、玉米蟲(chong)害發生趨勢
玉(yu)(yu)(yu)米(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)螟(ming)中(zhong)等(deng)(deng)(deng)至(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)偏(pian)(pian)(pian)重發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，各(ge)代累(lei)積(ji)(ji)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)量(liang) 200 萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)。預計 2015 年(nian)一(yi)代玉(yu)(yu)(yu)米(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)螟(ming)將偏(pian)(pian)(pian)輕至(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)中(zhong)等(deng)(deng)(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，主(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)要發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)區(qu)(qu)(qu)域為武清(qing)(qing)、薊縣(xian)(xian)(xian)、靜(jing)(jing)海、寧河(he)(he)等(deng)(deng)(deng)春玉(yu)(yu)(yu)米(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)面積(ji)(ji)較大(da)的區(qu)(qu)(qu)縣(xian)(xian)(xian)。二(er)、三代玉(yu)(yu)(yu)米(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)螟(ming)在(zai)各(ge)玉(yu)(yu)(yu)米(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)主(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)產(chan)區(qu)(qu)(qu)、縣(xian)(xian)(xian)中(zhong)等(deng)(deng)(deng)至(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)偏(pian)(pian)(pian)重發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)；二(er)、三代粘蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)中(zhong)等(deng)(deng)(deng)程度發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，累(lei)計發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng) 60 萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)。其中(zhong)，二(er)代粘蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)集中(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)于臨近春小(xiao)(xiao)麥的玉(yu)(yu)(yu)米(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)地(di)(di)(di)(di)。三代粘蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)宜在(zai)田間雜草生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)長茂盛、植株(zhu)長勢好的玉(yu)(yu)(yu)米(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)地(di)(di)(di)(di)點片重發(fa)(fa)(fa)。薊縣(xian)(xian)(xian)、寶(bao)坻、寧河(he)(he)、武清(qing)(qing)、靜(jing)(jing)海等(deng)(deng)(deng)玉(yu)(yu)(yu)米(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)主(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)栽區(qu)(qu)(qu)、縣(xian)(xian)(xian)是各(ge)代粘蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)的主(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)要發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)區(qu)(qu)(qu)域。小(xiao)(xiao)地(di)(di)(di)(di)老(lao)虎等(deng)(deng)(deng)地(di)(di)(di)(di)下(xia)害(hai)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)總(zong)體(ti)偏(pian)(pian)(pian)輕，個別地(di)(di)(di)(di)塊偏(pian)(pian)(pian)重發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，預計發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng) 45 萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)。各(ge)類(lei)地(di)(di)(di)(di)下(xia)害(hai)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)尤其是小(xiao)(xiao)地(di)(di)(di)(di)老(lao)虎將對薊縣(xian)(xian)(xian)、寶(bao)坻、靜(jing)(jing)海、寧河(he)(he)等(deng)(deng)(deng)玉(yu)(yu)(yu)米(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)主(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)產(chan)地(di)(di)(di)(di)苗期(qi)夏玉(yu)(yu)(yu)米(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)造成危害(hai)，部(bu)分沿河(he)(he)灘(tan)地(di)(di)(di)(di)、低洼(wa)地(di)(di)(di)(di)塊有可能受到小(xiao)(xiao)地(di)(di)(di)(di)老(lao)虎集中(zhong)為害(hai)。玉(yu)(yu)(yu)米(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)薊馬(ma)、蚜蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)、葉螨等(deng)(deng)(deng)刺吸式(shi)口器(qi)害(hai)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)中(zhong)等(deng)(deng)(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面積(ji)(ji) 90 萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)次(ci)。以(yi)上害(hai)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)在(zai)各(ge)玉(yu)(yu)(yu)米(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)主(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)產(chan)區(qu)(qu)(qu)、縣(xian)(xian)(xian)均有發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，氣候干旱、灌(guan)溉條件(jian)差(cha)利于其發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)。棉鈴(ling)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)總(zong)體(ti)中(zhong)等(deng)(deng)(deng)至(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)偏(pian)(pian)(pian)重發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面積(ji)(ji) 30 萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)次(ci)，偏(pian)(pian)(pian)重發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)區(qu)(qu)(qu)域可能集中(zhong)在(zai)寧河(he)(he)、靜(jing)(jing)海、武清(qing)(qing)等(deng)(deng)(deng)棉花主(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)栽區(qu)(qu)(qu)、縣(xian)(xian)(xian)。土蝗、桃蛀螟(ming)、褐足角胸葉甲、赤須盲蝽等(deng)(deng)(deng)其它蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)害(hai)偏(pian)(pian)(pian)輕發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，累(lei)計發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面積(ji)(ji) 35 萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)次(ci)。
2 、玉米主要病害發(fa)生趨(qu)勢
玉(yu)米(mi)褐(he)斑(ban)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)中(zhong)等至中(zhong)等偏(pian)重程度發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，全(quan)市共(gong)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng) 60 萬(wan)(wan)畝。褐(he)斑(ban)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)于(yu) 7 月(yue)上中(zhong)旬(xun)（玉(yu)米(mi) 8 ～ 10 片(pian)葉時(shi)）開(kai)始(shi)顯癥(zheng)(zheng)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)， 8 月(yue)上中(zhong)旬(xun)進入(ru)發(fa)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)高(gao)峰。玉(yu)米(mi)大、小(xiao)(xiao)斑(ban)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)中(zhong)等至偏(pian)輕(qing)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)， 2 中(zhong)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)害(hai)常(chang)混合發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，預計(ji)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng) 30 萬(wan)(wan)畝。大、小(xiao)(xiao)斑(ban)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)于(yu) 7 月(yue)中(zhong)旬(xun)開(kai)始(shi)顯癥(zheng)(zheng)， 8 月(yue)初(chu)開(kai)始(shi)進入(ru)發(fa)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)高(gao)峰。紋(wen)枯病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)、彎孢菌葉斑(ban)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)、粗縮病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)、瘤黑粉(fen)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)、絲黑穗病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)等其它病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)害(hai)偏(pian)輕(qing)至輕(qing)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，預計(ji)共(gong)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng) 58 萬(wan)(wan)畝。
二、水稻病蟲發生趨勢
根據 2014 年(nian)度(du)水(shui)(shui)(shui)稻(dao)(dao)病(bing)蟲發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)情況、越冬(dong)基數及冬(dong)春氣象(xiang)(xiang)因素綜合分析(xi)，預(yu)計 2015 年(nian)我市水(shui)(shui)(shui)稻(dao)(dao)主要病(bing)蟲害(hai)總體呈中等(deng)程度(du)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)。稻(dao)(dao)飛(fei)虱、紋枯病(bing)、稻(dao)(dao)瘟病(bing)等(deng)在部分稻(dao)(dao)田有偏(pian)重發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)的可能(neng)；水(shui)(shui)(shui)稻(dao)(dao)二(er)化螟、稻(dao)(dao)搖蚊、稻(dao)(dao)水(shui)(shui)(shui)象(xiang)(xiang)甲、稻(dao)(dao)曲(qu)病(bing)、胡麻斑病(bing)等(deng)病(bing)蟲害(hai)將呈中等(deng)至偏(pian)輕程度(du)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)。各類病(bing)蟲累(lei)計發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng) 120 萬畝次。其(qi)中，病(bing)害(hai)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng) 40 萬畝次，蟲害(hai)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng) 70 萬畝次。
1 、水稻主要(yao)蟲(chong)害(hai)發生趨(qu)勢(shi)
稻(dao)(dao)飛(fei)虱(shi)將(jiang)呈中(zhong)等程度發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)，部(bu)分地(di)塊偏(pian)重(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)，預計各代灰飛(fei)虱(shi)共發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng) 20 萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)次。若(ruo) 8 月中(zhong)下(xia)旬氣候條件適宜，遷飛(fei)性害蟲白背飛(fei)虱(shi)、褐飛(fei)虱(shi)等也有遷入的風險。二化螟中(zhong)等偏(pian)輕程度發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)，預計各代共發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng) 18 萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)次。一(yi)代發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)重(zhong)于二代，主要發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)區(qu)域(yu)集中(zhong)在寧(ning)河、寶坻等水(shui)稻(dao)(dao)主產區(qu)縣。稻(dao)(dao)搖(yao)蚊偏(pian)輕發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)面積 5 萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)。部(bu)分緩苗時間長、深水(shui)灌溉的稻(dao)(dao)田發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)較重(zhong)。稻(dao)(dao)水(shui)象甲、稻(dao)(dao)蝗(huang)等其它(ta)蟲害偏(pian)輕至輕發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)，累計發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng) 25 萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)次。
2 、水稻主要病(bing)害發生趨勢
紋枯病(bing)中等發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，預計發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng) 15 萬畝次；稻(dao)(dao)曲病(bing)中等至偏輕發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面積 8 萬畝次；品種(zhong)間抗稻(dao)(dao)曲病(bing)的特性存(cun)在(zai)明顯差異。苗期病(bing)害、條紋葉枯病(bing)、稻(dao)(dao)瘟病(bing)等其(qi)它病(bing)害偏輕至輕發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，預計共發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng) 17 萬畝次。 其(qi)中，穗頸瘟將在(zai)部分(fen)品種(zhong)上（如津(jin)稻(dao)(dao) 209 品系）中等至偏重發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面積 2 萬畝。
三、棉(mian)花(hua)病蟲害(hai)發(fa)生趨勢
預計 2015 年(nian)我市(shi)棉(mian)花病蟲害總體將呈中等(deng)程度發(fa)生，其中，棉(mian)蚜、棉(mian)盲(mang)蝽、棉(mian)花苗期(qi)葉螨(man)局部地區偏重發(fa)生。
1 、棉鈴(ling)蟲(chong)：預計(ji) 2015 年棉鈴(ling)蟲(chong)在我市棉田(tian)中等程度發(fa)(fa)生，二、三代(dai)為(wei)主(zhu)害代(dai)，預計(ji)發(fa)(fa)生面(mian)積(ji) 50 萬畝(mu)次，棉田(tian)外發(fa)(fa)生重于(yu)棉田(tian)。由(you)于(yu)抗(kang)(kang)蟲(chong)棉抗(kang)(kang)性良莠不齊(qi)，植保部門和(he)棉農將密切關注(zhu)棉鈴(ling)蟲(chong)田(tian)間發(fa)(fa)生消長動(dong)態。
2 、棉(mian)蚜(ya)：由于(yu)我(wo)市冬、春氣(qi)候條(tiao)件對(dui)棉(mian)蚜(ya)發生無極端不利影響(xiang)，預(yu)計 2015 年棉(mian)蚜(ya)在我(wo)市中等(deng)至偏重(zhong)(zhong)程度發生，其中寧河、武(wu)清、靜海三(san)區縣棉(mian)蚜(ya)發生將重(zhong)(zhong)于(yu)其它(ta)區縣。預(yu)計苗蚜(ya)發生面積 30 萬畝(mu)次。
3 、棉盲(mang)蝽：預計 2015 年將在(zai)我市(shi)中等程度(du)(du)(du)發(fa)生(sheng)。受 2014 年發(fa)生(sheng)程度(du)(du)(du)影響，預計 2015 年在(zai)薊縣(xian)、寶坻、寧河三區縣(xian)中等偏輕(qing)程度(du)(du)(du)發(fa)生(sheng)，其(qi)它區縣(xian)中等至偏重程度(du)(du)(du)發(fa)生(sheng)。預計發(fa)生(sheng)面積(ji) 50 萬畝次。
4 、棉葉螨(man)：預計(ji) 2015 年將在我市中等程度發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，局(ju)部(bu)地塊偏重發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)。如(ru)春(chun)季降水偏少，苗(miao)期(qi)葉螨(man)將有偏重發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)趨(qu)勢。預計(ji)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面積(ji) 20 萬(wan)畝
5 、棉(mian)花黃枯(ku)萎病：近三年我市枯(ku)、黃萎病偏輕發(fa)生(sheng)的原(yuan)因主要是高抗(kang)病棉(mian)的推(tui)廣以及(ji) 7 月出(chu)現的高溫天氣。據此預計 2015 年棉(mian)花枯(ku)黃萎病將在我市中等程度(du)發(fa)生(sheng)，預計全市發(fa)生(sheng)面(mian)積 35 萬畝次。
四、小(xiao)麥(mai)病蟲(chong)發生趨(qu)勢(shi)
1 、小(xiao)麥蚜蟲(chong)：預計中(zhong)等偏重發生(sheng)，發生(sheng) 145 萬畝。
去秋(qiu)小麥(mai)(mai)(mai)秋(qiu)苗長勢較好、土壤墑情(qing)也(ye)好于(yu)常年(nian)接近去年(nian)，去冬冬暖冬旱氣候(hou)有利于(yu)小麥(mai)(mai)(mai)蚜(ya)蟲越冬， 2014 年(nian)小蚜(ya)蟲中等(deng)偏重(zhong)發(fa)生，麥(mai)(mai)(mai)蚜(ya)百(bai)株蚜(ya)量(liang)低于(yu)常年(nian)，最(zui)高百(bai)株蚜(ya)量(liang) 6200 頭。預計(ji) 2015 年(nian)小麥(mai)(mai)(mai)蚜(ya)蟲，特別是(shi)穗蚜(ya)將中等(deng)偏重(zhong)發(fa)生，發(fa)生面積為 145 萬畝。主要發(fa)生區(qu)為薊縣、寶坻、武清、靜海等(deng)區(qu)縣。
2 、小麥吸(xi)漿蟲：預計(ji)中等發生，發生面積 120 萬畝。
經過近兩年(nian)(nian)的大(da)力防治，小麥吸(xi)漿(jiang)蟲(chong)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)程(cheng)度有所緩解，密(mi)度下降較大(da)， 2014 年(nian)(nian)平均每樣方 7.9 頭左(zuo)(zuo)右，較 2013 年(nian)(nian)偏高。去冬冬暖(nuan)氣候(hou)，加之土壤(rang)墑較好、小麥長勢好，有利于小麥吸(xi)漿(jiang)蟲(chong)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)。預(yu)計 2015 年(nian)(nian)小麥吸(xi)漿(jiang)蟲(chong)將呈中等程(cheng)度發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，預(yu)計發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng) 120 萬畝(mu)左(zuo)(zuo)右，薊縣、寶坻、武清將是重發(fa)區(qu)，武清區(qu)局部田塊將出現(xian)高密(mi)度吸(xi)漿(jiang)蟲(chong)為害。若 2015 年(nian)(nian) 3 、 4 月份降雨充(chong)足將有利于小麥吸(xi)漿(jiang)蟲(chong)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)。
3 、麥(mai)葉(xie)蜂：預計中(zhong)等偏輕發生，發生 40 萬畝(mu)左(zuo)右。
2014 年(nian)麥(mai)(mai)葉(xie)蜂(feng)(feng)在(zai)我市薊縣(xian)、武(wu)清(qing)、寶坻三區(qu)縣(xian)部分(fen)田塊(kuai)發(fa)生(sheng)，武(wu)清(qing)最重，部分(fen)田塊(kuai)最高(gao)密度(du)達 11 頭(tou) /m2, 一般(ban)密度(du) 4 頭(tou) /m2 。 2014 年(nian)我市麥(mai)(mai)葉(xie)蜂(feng)(feng)發(fa)生(sheng)密度(du)和(he)面積均接近常年(nian)，較 2013 年(nian)偏(pian)低(di) , 若 2015 年(nian) 4 月份雨水條件好，將有利(li)于麥(mai)(mai)葉(xie)蜂(feng)(feng)發(fa)生(sheng)，預計麥(mai)(mai)葉(xie)蜂(feng)(feng)整(zheng)體呈中等(deng)偏(pian)輕發(fa)生(sheng)，預計發(fa)生(sheng) 40 萬畝，武(wu)清(qing)、靜海兩區(qu)縣(xian)為重點發(fa)生(sheng)區(qu)。
4 、金針蟲、蠐螬、螻蛄等地下害蟲：預計中等發生，發生 80 萬畝(mu)左右(you)。
2014 年(nian)秋播(bo)小(xiao)麥(mai)地(di)下害蟲越冬基數接近常(chang)年(nian)，一般被害株(zhu)率為 3.6% ，最高(gao)被害株(zhu)率為 35% ，為 2015 年(nian)地(di)下害蟲發生留下較(jiao)高(gao)的蟲源(yuan)基數，預計中等程度發生，發生 80 萬畝左右，薊縣、寶(bao)坻、靜海三區(qu)縣將是重點發生區(qu)。
5 、小麥白粉病：預計中(zhong)等(deng)偏輕(qing)發生(sheng)，發生(sheng) 50 萬畝左右。
由(you)于(yu)近兩年(nian)(nian)我市夏(xia)季降雨較(jiao)充足，氣(qi)溫偏高(gao)，小(xiao)麥(mai)白粉病(bing)(bing)發生(sheng)(sheng)較(jiao)常(chang)年(nian)(nian)略偏重(zhong)，但總體(ti)偏輕發生(sheng)(sheng)，武清發生(sheng)(sheng)相對(dui)較(jiao)重(zhong)，部(bu)分田塊最(zui)高(gao)病(bing)(bing)葉率達 50% 。若 2015 年(nian)(nian) 4 、 5 月份多雨，小(xiao)麥(mai)長勢(shi)好(hao)將有利于(yu)小(xiao)麥(mai)白粉病(bing)(bing)發生(sheng)(sheng)。預計 2015 年(nian)(nian)小(xiao)麥(mai)白粉病(bing)(bing)仍為中等偏輕發生(sheng)(sheng)，預計發生(sheng)(sheng) 50 萬(wan)畝左右。主要發生(sheng)(sheng)區為薊縣、寶坻、武清、西青四區縣。
6 、小麥葉銹病(bing)：預(yu)計(ji)輕發生，發生 30 萬畝(mu)左(zuo)右(you)。
小麥(mai)葉銹(xiu)病近兩年在我市(shi)為零星(xing)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)，菌源基數較低，預計 2015 年小麥(mai)葉銹(xiu)病仍(reng)將輕度發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)面積為 30 萬畝(mu)左右。主要發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)區(qu)為薊縣(xian)、寶坻、武清三區(qu)縣(xian)。
五、東亞飛(fei)蝗發生(sheng)趨勢
2014 年(nian)秋殘(can)蝗(huang)(huang)(huang)面積(ji)(ji)和密度(du)都(dou)接近(jin)去年(nian)，較常年(nian)偏低。 2014 年(nian)秋殘(can)蝗(huang)(huang)(huang)面積(ji)(ji) 40 萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)，與(yu) 2013 年(nian)持平。每(mei)畝(mu)(mu) 6 至(zhi)(zhi) 10 頭(tou)為(wei) 30 萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)， 11 至(zhi)(zhi) 30 頭(tou)為(wei) 8.5 萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)， 31 至(zhi)(zhi) 100 頭(tou)的為(wei) 1.5 萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)， 100 頭(tou)以上為(wei) 0 萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)。殘(can)蝗(huang)(huang)(huang)最高密度(du)每(mei)畝(mu)(mu) 45 頭(tou)左(zuo)(zuo)右，一般密度(du)每(mei)畝(mu)(mu) 10 頭(tou)。殘(can)蝗(huang)(huang)(huang)主(zhu)要集中在大港(gang)區北大港(gang)水庫(ku)(ku)，寧河縣的七里海(hai)水庫(ku)(ku)，靜(jing)海(hai)團泊水庫(ku)(ku)，西(xi)青(qing)、靜(jing)海(hai)境內獨流減(jian)河等蝗(huang)(huang)(huang)區。去冬暖冬氣候有利于(yu)蝗(huang)(huang)(huang)卵越(yue)冬，預計(ji) 2015 年(nian)夏蝗(huang)(huang)(huang)中等程度(du)發生(sheng)(sheng)，預發生(sheng)(sheng) 40 萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)左(zuo)(zuo)右，計(ji)劃(hua)防治 30 萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)。
六、蔬菜病(bing)蟲害(hai)發(fa)生趨(qu)勢
入冬(dong)以(yi)來，我市(shi)日照偏(pian)多(duo)，氣(qi)溫偏(pian)高、降水顯(xian)著(zhu)偏(pian)少，總體氣(qi)象條件對保護地(di)蔬(shu)菜(cai)生(sheng)(sheng)長有利，蔬(shu)菜(cai)長勢普遍良好(hao)，但也利于粉(fen)(fen)虱等(deng)害蟲(chong)(chong)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)和越(yue)冬(dong)。預計(ji)我市(shi)冬(dong)春季設(she)施(shi)蔬(shu)菜(cai)病(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)害呈(cheng)等(deng)程度(du)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，主(zhu)要發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)病(bing)害有黃化曲葉病(bing)毒病(bing)、灰(hui)霉(mei)病(bing)、葉霉(mei)病(bing)，霜(shuang)霉(mei)病(bing)、白粉(fen)(fen)病(bing)等(deng)為主(zhu)；蟲(chong)(chong)害以(yi)粉(fen)(fen)虱、蚜(ya)蟲(chong)(chong)、螨類為主(zhu)，部分管理粗(cu)放棚(peng)室病(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)害發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)偏(pian)重。
（天津市植(zhi)保植(zhi)檢(jian)站）
