根據廣西各地玉(yu)米鐵甲(jia)蟲冬(dong)后(hou)蟲源基(ji)數，結(jie)合今(jin)年(nian)(nian)(nian)農情及(ji)(ji)氣候(hou)特點，參考歷史資(zi)料綜合分析，預計今(jin)年(nian)(nian)(nian)玉(yu)米鐵甲(jia)蟲發(fa)生(sheng)程度(du)比(bi)上(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)偏(pian)重(zhong)，發(fa)生(sheng)面(mian)積28萬畝；發(fa)生(sheng)程度(du)為(wei)中等(deng)、局部中等(deng)偏(pian)重(zhong)，其中忻城、大(da)化、隆(long)林縣局部發(fa)生(sheng)較重(zhong)。發(fa)生(sheng)的主(zhu)要(yao)區域為(wei)崇(chong)左、河池、百色等(deng)市及(ji)(ji)忻城、防城等(deng)縣（區）的石(shi)山地區。主(zhu)要(yao)發(fa)生(sheng)為(wei)害時段將出現在3月(yue)下旬(xun)末至(zhi)5月(yue)上(shang)(shang)旬(xun)，防治適期為(wei)4月(yue)上(shang)(shang)、中旬(xun)。
主要依據
1 蟲源基數
各地(di)冬后蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)源調查，蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)口(kou)(kou)密度與上年相(xiang)比(bi)：桂(gui)西南、桂(gui)西北及(ji)忻(xin)城(cheng)、防(fang)城(cheng)等縣(xian)的(de)(de)主要發生區(qu)域偏(pian)高，其(qi)余(yu)地(di)區(qu)偏(pian)少。其(qi)中雜草(cao)地(di)的(de)(de)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)口(kou)(kou)密度：靖西、憑(ping)祥、防(fang)城(cheng)等縣(xian)（市(shi)、區(qu)）每平(ping)(ping)(ping)方米平(ping)(ping)(ping)均有(you)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)0.13頭(tou)(tou)(tou)～6頭(tou)(tou)(tou)，同(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)6.9%～22.2%；忻(xin)城(cheng)、天峨、都安、大化等縣(xian)每平(ping)(ping)(ping)方米平(ping)(ping)(ping)均有(you)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)1.2～45頭(tou)(tou)(tou)，同(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)25%～100%；隆林(lin)縣(xian)每平(ping)(ping)(ping)方米平(ping)(ping)(ping)均有(you)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)146~360頭(tou)(tou)(tou)，同(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)72倍(bei)以上。甘蔗地(di)的(de)(de)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)口(kou)(kou)密度：忻(xin)城(cheng)、靖西、憑(ping)祥、防(fang)城(cheng)等縣(xian)（區(qu)）每百株(zhu)平(ping)(ping)(ping)均有(you)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)0.15頭(tou)(tou)(tou)～23頭(tou)(tou)(tou)，同(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)3%～9%，其(qi)中忻(xin)城(cheng)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)幅達(da)150%~200%；大化縣(xian)每百株(zhu)平(ping)(ping)(ping)均有(you)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)5~60頭(tou)(tou)(tou)，同(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)29~50倍(bei)；隆林(lin)縣(xian)局部每百株(zhu)平(ping)(ping)(ping)均有(you)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)542~1200頭(tou)(tou)(tou)，同(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)89%~116.8%。另據巴馬(ma)縣(xian)近期(qi)玉米地(di)調查，畝有(you)幼(you)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)平(ping)(ping)(ping)均55頭(tou)(tou)(tou)，高的(de)(de)220頭(tou)(tou)(tou)。
2 農事活動
玉米、甘蔗(zhe)、桑樹混栽(zai)區不斷擴大，邊遠山區防治力度的不平衡(heng)等因素均利于玉米鐵甲蟲的發(fa)生為害。截(jie)止3月10日，全區春(chun)種旱(han)地作物1834.1萬畝(mu)(mu)，同(tong)比增66.10萬畝(mu)(mu)。春(chun)種作物中(zhong)，春(chun)玉米347.62萬畝(mu)(mu)，同(tong)比增1.18萬畝(mu)(mu)；糖料蔗(zhe)1015.19萬畝(mu)(mu)（其中(zhong)新植(zhi)蔗(zhe)235.12萬畝(mu)(mu)），同(tong)比增55.58萬畝(mu)(mu)。
3 氣象因素
2016年(nian)(nian)(nian)12月(yue)廣(guang)西(xi)全區(qu)平均氣(qi)(qi)溫(wen)15.2℃，比(bi)常(chang)(chang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)期偏(pian)(pian)高(gao)(gao)2℃，偏(pian)(pian)高(gao)(gao)程(cheng)度為1951年(nian)(nian)(nian)以(yi)來同(tong)期第6位(wei)(wei)；2017年(nian)(nian)(nian)1月(yue)廣(guang)西(xi)全區(qu)平均氣(qi)(qi)溫(wen)14.2℃，比(bi)常(chang)(chang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)期偏(pian)(pian)高(gao)(gao)2.9℃，偏(pian)(pian)高(gao)(gao)程(cheng)度為1955年(nian)(nian)(nian)以(yi)來同(tong)期第1位(wei)(wei)；2017年(nian)(nian)(nian)2月(yue)廣(guang)西(xi)全區(qu)平均氣(qi)(qi)溫(wen)14.4℃，比(bi)常(chang)(chang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)期偏(pian)(pian)高(gao)(gao)1.3℃。冬季（2016年(nian)(nian)(nian)12月(yue)~2017年(nian)(nian)(nian)2月(yue)）氣(qi)(qi)溫(wen)偏(pian)(pian)高(gao)(gao)，利于(yu)害(hai)蟲(chong)越(yue)冬，但是3月(yue)上旬中及中旬初的低溫(wen)陰(yin)雨天氣(qi)(qi)對玉米鐵甲(jia)蟲(chong)繁殖為害(hai)不利。
防治意見
防(fang)(fang)治玉(yu)米(mi)鐵甲蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)必須(xu)堅持(chi)以藥劑防(fang)(fang)治越冬代(dai)成(cheng)(cheng)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)為主，以挑(tiao)治幼蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)（卵）和人(ren)工捕(bu)殺(sha)成(cheng)(cheng)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)為輔的(de)技(ji)術策(ce)略和措(cuo)施。防(fang)(fang)治成(cheng)(cheng)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)，在越冬代(dai)成(cheng)(cheng)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)大量遷入產(chan)卵盛(sheng)期前(qian)進(jin)行(xing)施藥防(fang)(fang)治或(huo)人(ren)工捕(bu)捉；挑(tiao)治幼蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)和卵，在卵孵化率達15%～20%時進(jin)行(xing)施藥。如防(fang)(fang)效欠(qian)佳，殘蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)（蛹）量仍較大時，可進(jin)行(xing)人(ren)工割除(chu)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)（蛹）葉掃(sao)殘，集中(zhong)燒毀(hui)滅蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)，以減(jian)少第二代(dai)或(huo)來年(nian)的(de)發生(sheng)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)源。
