根據當前誘蛾量，結合氣象因素(su)及玉米長勢分(fen)析，預計 我省玉米田二點委(wei)夜蛾總體偏輕發(fa)生，部分(fen)管理粗放的田 塊(kuai)中(zhong)等發(fa)生，輕于去年(nian)和常年(nian)。二代幼蟲危害(hai)高峰期在(zai)6月 下旬至(zhi)7月中(zhong)旬。
預報依據：
一、燈(deng)誘(you)成蟲(chong)基數(shu)較低。截止6月11日(ri)，濟寧、肥城等 11個(ge)測報點誘(you)到成蟲(chong)，絕大(da)多(duo)數(shu)監測點累(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)計(ji)(ji)(ji)誘(you)蛾(e)(e)(e)明顯低于(yu) 去年(nian)(nian)。濟寧累(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)計(ji)(ji)(ji)誘(you)蛾(e)(e)(e)710頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，比(bi)(bi)去年(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)少(shao)(shao)50%，5月29 日(ri)峰(feng)(feng)日(ri)蛾(e)(e)(e)量(liang)(liang)60頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)；肥城累(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)計(ji)(ji)(ji)誘(you)蛾(e)(e)(e)474頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，比(bi)(bi)去年(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)少(shao)(shao) 83.7%， 6月4日(ri)峰(feng)(feng)日(ri)蛾(e)(e)(e)量(liang)(liang)68頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)；鄒城累(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)計(ji)(ji)(ji)231頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，比(bi)(bi) 去年(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)少(shao)(shao)近90%， 6月1日(ri)峰(feng)(feng)日(ri)蛾(e)(e)(e)量(liang)(liang)50頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)；汶上累(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)計(ji)(ji)(ji) 242頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，比(bi)(bi)去年(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)少(shao)(shao)52%，5月29日(ri)峰(feng)(feng)日(ri)蛾(e)(e)(e)量(liang)(liang)65頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)； 滕州累(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)計(ji)(ji)(ji)188 頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，比(bi)(bi)去年(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)少(shao)(shao)60%，比(bi)(bi)2015 年(nian)(nian)少(shao)(shao) 65%， 6月9日(ri)峰(feng)(feng)日(ri)蛾(e)(e)(e)量(liang)(liang)69頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)；濱州累(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)計(ji)(ji)(ji)誘(you)蛾(e)(e)(e)55頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，較 1 去年(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)少(shao)(shao)8.33％；章丘、郯城、萊州累(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)計(ji)(ji)(ji)誘(you)蛾(e)(e)(e)較少(shao)(shao)，分別 為(wei)13頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)、4頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)、4頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)。淄博累(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)計(ji)(ji)(ji)誘(you)蛾(e)(e)(e)量(liang)(liang)680頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，比(bi)(bi)去年(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi) 多(duo)30％；鄆城累(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)(lei)計(ji)(ji)(ji)誘(you)蛾(e)(e)(e)291頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，比(bi)(bi)去年(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)多(duo)14.1％。5 月底6月初各地陸續進入(ru)一代成蟲(chong)盛發期(qi)(qi)，濟寧、肥城、汶 上、滕州盛發期(qi)(qi)蛾(e)(e)(e)量(liang)(liang)顯著(zhu)低于(yu)去年(nian)(nian)或前3年(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)值（具體(ti)數(shu) 據見表）。
表：2012-2017一代成蟲盛(sheng)發期(qi)誘蛾(e)量(liang)對比
地點(dian)誘測(ce)時(shi)間(jian)2017 201 6 2015 2014 2013 2012
濟(ji)寧5/25-6/11 358 325 0 3392 1382 5 4405
肥城(cheng)5/25-6/11 245 291 5 185 672 93 51
汶上5/26-6/11 185 505 81 112 227 156
滕州5/25-6/11 187 482 465 555 51 59
平均243 178 8 1031 680 94 1168
二、氣(qi)(qi)象條件對(dui)二代幼蟲發生(sheng)不利。據國家氣(qi)(qi)象中心監測和(he) 預報，6月份，河北(bei)南部(bu)(bu)、河南大部(bu)(bu)、山西南部(bu)(bu)、山東、江(jiang)蘇北(bei) 部(bu)(bu)、安徽北(bei)部(bu)(bu)降水(shui)較常(chang)年偏少2～5成。預計未來20天，華 北(bei)大部(bu)(bu)、黃(huang)淮北(bei)部(bu)(bu)累積雨量(liang)僅有15～20毫米，黃(huang)淮南部(bu)(bu)氣(qi)(qi) 溫(wen)偏高1～2℃，高溫(wen)和(he)少雨天氣(qi)(qi)對(dui)二點委夜蛾產卵、卵孵(fu) 化(hua)和(he)幼蟲發育為害(hai)有一定的抑制作用。
三、玉米(mi)播(bo)期(qi)(qi)與(yu)幼(you)蟲(chong)發生期(qi)(qi)吻(wen)合度(du)一(yi)般(ban)。夏(xia)直播(bo)玉米(mi)主產區 苗(miao)期(qi)(qi)與(yu)二點委夜蛾二代幼(you)蟲(chong)為害高峰期(qi)(qi)吻(wen)合度(du)一(yi)般(ban)，不利 于幼(you)蟲(chong)發生為害。
