據(ju)全(quan)國農技中(zhong)心組織科研、教(jiao)學和(he)推(tui)廣單位專家分析預測，2018年(nian)全(quan)國玉(yu)米(mi)主(zhu)要(yao)病(bing)蟲(chong)害(hai)(hai)發生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)將重(zhong)于常年(nian)，預計發生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面積為10.8億畝次(ci)，其(qi)中(zhong)，蟲(chong)害(hai)(hai)發生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)8.0億畝次(ci)，病(bing)害(hai)(hai)發生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)2.8億畝次(ci)。東(dong)(dong)北(bei)和(he)華北(bei)地(di)區玉(yu)米(mi)螟、粘蟲(chong)、地(di)下害(hai)(hai)蟲(chong)、大斑病(bing)為害(hai)(hai)最重(zhong)，黃淮地(di)區玉(yu)米(mi)螟、棉(mian)(mian)鈴(ling)蟲(chong)、二點(dian)委夜蛾、褐斑病(bing)發生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)突出，西北(bei)和(he)西南地(di)區棉(mian)(mian)鈴(ling)蟲(chong)、蚜蟲(chong)、葉(xie)螨、粘蟲(chong)、小(xiao)斑病(bing)發生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)普遍。玉(yu)米(mi)螟在東(dong)(dong)北(bei)和(he)西北(bei)北(bei)部(bu)(bu)等地(di)為害(hai)(hai)加重(zhong)，粘蟲(chong)在北(bei)方(fang)局部(bu)(bu)會(hui)出現高密度集中(zhong)為害(hai)(hai)，棉(mian)(mian)鈴(ling)蟲(chong)上升為害(hai)(hai)態勢(shi)明顯，為害(hai)(hai)區域擴(kuo)大。
一、趨(qu)勢(shi)預(yu)報(bao)
（一）蟲害
玉(yu)米(mi)(mi)螟(ming)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)3.15億(yi)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)次，其中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)，一代(dai)玉(yu)米(mi)(mi)螟(ming)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)1.25億(yi)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)，東(dong)(dong)(dong)北(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)北(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)部(bu)(bu)和(he)西(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)北(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)北(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)部(bu)(bu)地(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)偏(pian)(pian)重(zhong)(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，東(dong)(dong)(dong)北(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)南部(bu)(bu)和(he)西(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)南地(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)；二(er)(er)代(dai)玉(yu)米(mi)(mi)螟(ming)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)1.2億(yi)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)，東(dong)(dong)(dong)北(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)和(he)西(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)南局(ju)部(bu)(bu)地(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)偏(pian)(pian)重(zhong)(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)；三(san)代(dai)玉(yu)米(mi)(mi)螟(ming)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)7000萬(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)，黃(huang)(huang)淮(huai)部(bu)(bu)分地(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)偏(pian)(pian)重(zhong)(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，華北(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)和(he)黃(huang)(huang)淮(huai)海(hai)大(da)(da)部(bu)(bu)地(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)。二(er)(er)、三(san)代(dai)粘蟲發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)6000萬(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)次，總體為中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，東(dong)(dong)(dong)北(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)、華北(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)、西(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)北(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)、黃(huang)(huang)淮(huai)局(ju)部(bu)(bu)地(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)可達偏(pian)(pian)重(zhong)(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，部(bu)(bu)分地(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)會(hui)出現高密度集(ji)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)為害(hai)區(qu)(qu)(qu)域。棉(mian)鈴蟲發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)9000萬(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)次，黃(huang)(huang)淮(huai)海(hai)大(da)(da)部(bu)(bu)和(he)西(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)北(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)東(dong)(dong)(dong)部(bu)(bu)地(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)偏(pian)(pian)重(zhong)(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，其他地(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)。蚜蟲發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)8000萬(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)，東(dong)(dong)(dong)北(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)、西(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)北(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)和(he)黃(huang)(huang)淮(huai)海(hai)大(da)(da)部(bu)(bu)地(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)。薊馬發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)3900萬(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)，黃(huang)(huang)淮(huai)海(hai)大(da)(da)部(bu)(bu)地(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，河北(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)南部(bu)(bu)等(deng)(deng)局(ju)部(bu)(bu)偏(pian)(pian)重(zhong)(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)。雙斑螢葉(xie)甲發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)4700萬(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)，華北(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)、東(dong)(dong)(dong)北(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)和(he)西(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)北(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)大(da)(da)部(bu)(bu)偏(pian)(pian)重(zhong)(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)。二(er)(er)點委夜蛾發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)1300萬(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)，黃(huang)(huang)淮(huai)海(hai)大(da)(da)部(bu)(bu)地(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)偏(pian)(pian)輕發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，河北(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)、山東(dong)(dong)(dong)兩省的局(ju)部(bu)(bu)會(hui)出現高密度為害(hai)田(tian)塊。葉(xie)螨發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)2750萬(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)，西(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)北(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)大(da)(da)部(bu)(bu)地(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)偏(pian)(pian)重(zhong)(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)。土蝗發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)1350萬(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)，東(dong)(dong)(dong)北(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)、華北(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)和(he)西(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)北(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)農牧交錯(cuo)區(qu)(qu)(qu)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)。地(di)(di)下(xia)害(hai)蟲發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)9800萬(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)，西(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)北(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)、東(dong)(dong)(dong)北(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)大(da)(da)部(bu)(bu)地(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)。玉(yu)米(mi)(mi)耕(geng)葵粉蚧、褐足角(jiao)胸葉(xie)甲、蝸牛等(deng)(deng)害(hai)蟲在(zai)(zai)華北(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)、黃(huang)(huang)淮(huai)地(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)，三(san)點斑葉(xie)蟬在(zai)(zai)西(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)北(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)部(bu)(bu)分地(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)可造(zao)成一定為害(hai)。
（二）病害
大斑病(bing)(bing)(bing)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)6900萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)，東北(bei)、華北(bei)、西南大部(bu)(bu)地區(qu)為中(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，東北(bei)局部(bu)(bu)高感(gan)品(pin)種將偏重發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)。小斑病(bing)(bing)(bing)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)3800萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)，黃(huang)淮(huai)(huai)海(hai)和(he)西南地區(qu)中(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)。南方銹病(bing)(bing)(bing)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)4300萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)，黃(huang)淮(huai)(huai)南部(bu)(bu)地區(qu)偏重發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，黃(huang)淮(huai)(huai)海(hai)大部(bu)(bu)和(he)西南局部(bu)(bu)地區(qu)中(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)。褐斑病(bing)(bing)(bing)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)3000萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)，黃(huang)淮(huai)(huai)海(hai)大部(bu)(bu)地區(qu)中(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)。彎孢葉斑病(bing)(bing)(bing)、瘤黑粉病(bing)(bing)(bing)、絲黑穗病(bing)(bing)(bing)、粗縮(suo)病(bing)(bing)(bing)、頂腐病(bing)(bing)(bing)、莖腐病(bing)(bing)(bing)、穗腐病(bing)(bing)(bing)、灰斑病(bing)(bing)(bing)和(he)線蟲矮化病(bing)(bing)(bing)等(deng)在(zai)部(bu)(bu)分(fen)地區(qu)會(hui)造成一定為害(hai)。
二、預測依據
（一）粘(zhan)蟲、棉(mian)鈴(ling)蟲和部分地區玉米螟基數偏高
1．粘蟲(chong)：2017年三代粘蟲(chong)總體為(wei)害程度(du)重于(yu)上年，有效蟲(chong)源數量(liang)(liang)偏(pian)多(duo)。據各(ge)地高空測報燈2017年夏末秋初監測，東(dong)北、華北、黃淮、長江(jiang)(jiang)中(zhong)下游、江(jiang)(jiang)南、華南和(he)西南地區均誘(you)(you)(you)到成蟲(chong)，誘(you)(you)(you)蟲(chong)量(liang)(liang)屬中(zhong)等年份。9月份各(ge)地累(lei)計誘(you)(you)(you)蟲(chong)量(liang)(liang)，河北灤縣6155頭(tou)，山(shan)東(dong)長島1344頭(tou)，上海奉賢385頭(tou)，同比增加6-10倍，遼寧(ning)彰武、陜西興平、河南孟州、江(jiang)(jiang)蘇東(dong)臺為(wei)50-155頭(tou)，山(shan)西萬榮、湖北潛江(jiang)(jiang)、甘肅莊浪、浙江(jiang)(jiang)象山(shan)、廣(guang)西宜州、廣(guang)東(dong)蕉嶺、云(yun)南鳳慶1-14頭(tou)，誘(you)(you)(you)蟲(chong)量(liang)(liang)多(duo)高于(yu)上年。
2．玉(yu)米(mi)螟(ming)：據各地2017年冬(dong)前基數調(diao)查，平均百稈活蟲(chong)數，
黑龍江(jiang)99頭，吉(ji)林、山(shan)東(dong)、江(jiang)蘇(su)、云(yun)南、新(xin)(xin)疆37-50頭，湖南、湖北(bei)(bei)、貴州、安徽、河南、山(shan)西(xi)、河北(bei)(bei)、天(tian)津、內蒙古、遼(liao)寧(ning)、陜西(xi)16-30頭，北(bei)(bei)京(jing)、四(si)川、寧(ning)夏不足10頭。與2016年冬前基(ji)數比，黑龍江(jiang)、新(xin)(xin)疆、山(shan)東(dong)增(zeng)加(jia)(jia)超(chao)過30%，云(yun)南增(zeng)加(jia)(jia)27%，陜西(xi)、寧(ning)夏增(zeng)加(jia)(jia)10%，江(jiang)蘇(su)、天(tian)津增(zeng)加(jia)(jia)3%-5%，遼(liao)寧(ning)、內蒙古、山(shan)西(xi)、河南、安徽、貴州下降20%-65%，四(si)川、重慶、湖南、吉(ji)林下降1%-19%。
3．棉鈴蟲：冬(dong)前各地調查棉鈴蟲蟲源基(ji)數，黃(huang)淮(huai)、華北(bei)(bei)(bei)和西北(bei)(bei)(bei)部(bu)(bu)分(fen)地區(qu)普遍見蟲，華北(bei)(bei)(bei)部(bu)(bu)分(fen)地區(qu)基(ji)數較高。河(he)北(bei)(bei)(bei)省調查，玉(yu)米、棉花、蔬菜(cai)田(tian)平(ping)均(jun)畝蛹量(liang)分(fen)別為(wei)102頭(tou)(tou)、61頭(tou)(tou)、45頭(tou)(tou)，同比增加12%、57%、120%。2017年第一(yi)次發生為(wei)害(hai)的內蒙古阿(a)拉善、巴彥淖爾、赤峰(feng)市棉花、向日葵、高粱、谷(gu)子(zi)、花生、玉(yu)米田(tian)均(jun)查到越冬(dong)蟲蛹，其中(zhong)阿(a)拉善盟(meng)各旗縣部(bu)(bu)分(fen)棉花、谷(gu)子(zi)、花生、高粱田(tian)塊畝蛹量(liang)在100頭(tou)(tou)以(yi)上。
4．二點委夜蛾(e)：河北(bei)、山東、山西、江(jiang)蘇(su)、北(bei)京(jing)5個省（市）冬前查(cha)見越冬蟲(chong)源，估(gu)算蟲(chong)源面(mian)積(ji)為578萬畝，比上(shang)年(nian)增加13%。每畝平均(jun)蟲(chong)口(kou)(kou)數(shu)(shu)量，北(bei)京(jing)200頭，江(jiang)蘇(su)133頭，山東、山西、河北(bei)在(zai)13-60頭之(zhi)間，蟲(chong)源基數(shu)(shu)接近2016年(nian)；每畝最高蟲(chong)口(kou)(kou)數(shu)(shu)量，北(bei)京(jing)順義為1334頭，山東茌平、高唐和(he)山西萬榮為667頭，江(jiang)蘇(su)豐縣400頭，河北(bei)邢臺(tai)333頭，高密度點數(shu)(shu)高于上(shang)年(nian)。
5．病(bing)害(hai)(hai)：玉米病(bing)害(hai)(hai)連年普遍發生，各地菌源(yuan)(yuan)分布范圍廣(guang)(guang)，黃淮海、西北(bei)等(deng)地秸稈還田面積(ji)比率大(da)于90%，東北(bei)地區近(jin)年也(ye)在推(tui)廣(guang)(guang)秸稈還田技(ji)術(shu)，有利于大(da)斑(ban)病(bing)、小斑(ban)病(bing)、褐斑(ban)病(bing)、莖腐病(bing)、瘤黑粉病(bing)、穗腐病(bing)等(deng)病(bing)害(hai)(hai)菌源(yuan)(yuan)的積(ji)累(lei)。
（二）種植(zhi)栽培措施對病蟲害發生(sheng)總(zong)體有利
東北(bei)、華(hua)北(bei)和(he)黃淮(huai)主產區(qu)玉(yu)米連(lian)年種(zhong)植(zhi)(zhi)，且多為大面積(ji)(ji)連(lian)作，各地普遍采取(qu)密植(zhi)(zhi)、免耕、秸稈還(huan)田等(deng)措(cuo)施，有利于玉(yu)米病(bing)蟲源積(ji)(ji)累和(he)發(fa)生(sheng)為害(hai)。東北(bei)、華(hua)北(bei)主栽(zai)品(pin)(pin)種(zhong)對(dui)大斑(ban)(ban)病(bing)、黃淮(huai)海(hai)主栽(zai)品(pin)(pin)種(zhong)對(dui)褐斑(ban)(ban)病(bing)、南方銹病(bing)等(deng)病(bing)害(hai)抗性普遍較差。但(dan)近年來黃淮(huai)海(hai)地區(qu)夏玉(yu)米清行播(bo)種(zhong)，可有效破壞二點委夜蛾生(sheng)境(jing)，對(dui)其發(fa)生(sheng)危害(hai)不利。
（三(san)）冬春季氣象條件對害蟲越冬和發生有利
據國家氣(qi)候中心監測和預(yu)測，2017年冬季，華(hua)南(nan)北部(bu)(bu)、江南(nan)、黃淮(huai)、華(hua)北、東(dong)(dong)北南(nan)部(bu)(bu)和西(xi)北東(dong)(dong)部(bu)(bu)等地(di)氣(qi)溫(wen)正常或(huo)偏(pian)高(gao)0.5-2℃，對粘蟲(chong)、玉米(mi)螟(ming)等害蟲(chong)越冬、種群繁衍有利(li)(li)。2018年春季，黃淮(huai)南(nan)部(bu)(bu)、新(xin)疆南(nan)部(bu)(bu)等地(di)氣(qi)溫(wen)較常年偏(pian)高(gao)0.5-2℃；東(dong)(dong)北北部(bu)(bu)、西(xi)南(nan)大(da)部(bu)(bu)等地(di)降(jiang)水偏(pian)多，對以上(shang)地(di)區玉米(mi)螟(ming)羽化和發生(sheng)(sheng)為害有利(li)(li)；黃淮(huai)、華(hua)北和東(dong)(dong)北大(da)部(bu)(bu)地(di)區降(jiang)水正常或(huo)略偏(pian)少(shao)，有利(li)(li)于(yu)一(yi)代棉鈴蟲(chong)在小麥等作(zuo)物(wu)田發生(sheng)(sheng)，對玉米(mi)螟(ming)和粘蟲(chong)無明顯不利(li)(li)影響。
（病蟲害測報處(chu)）
