近(jin)日，全國農技中(zhong)心組織各級(ji)植保部(bu)門(men)和科研院校(xiao)有(you)關(guan)專(zhuan)家(jia)會(hui)商分(fen)析，預計2018年全國農區(qu)(qu)鼠(shu)(shu)害總體呈(cheng)中(zhong)等至(zhi)(zhi)偏重(zhong)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)趨勢（3～4級(ji)），東北、華南及(ji)西北部(bu)分(fen)地區(qu)(qu)呈(cheng)偏重(zhong)至(zhi)(zhi)大發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)態勢（4～5級(ji)）；全國農田(tian)鼠(shu)(shu)害發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面積4.36億畝次，比(bi)2017年增加(jia)2100萬畝次，其(qi)中(zhong)重(zhong)發(fa)面積（鼠(shu)(shu)密(mi)度超過8%）6000萬畝次。農區(qu)(qu)鼠(shu)(shu)害總體進入(ru)種群密(mi)度恢復期(qi)，種群密(mi)度較高的地區(qu)(qu)主要集(ji)中(zhong)在糧改經（豆）、稻魚(yu)（蝦）循(xun)環種養殖區(qu)(qu)等種植業(ye)結構調整地區(qu)(qu)，部(bu)分(fen)貧困地區(qu)(qu)的湖區(qu)(qu)、庫區(qu)(qu)、山(shan)區(qu)(qu)（半(ban)山(shan)區(qu)(qu)），以及(ji)農林、農牧(mu)交錯地帶；總體呈(cheng)現(xian)農田(tian)優勢鼠(shu)(shu)種變化、發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)范圍擴大、高密(mi)度鼠(shu)(shu)害點片發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)、局部(bu)地區(qu)(qu)危(wei)害損(sun)失(shi)加(jia)重(zhong)的趨勢。
一、發生趨勢
（一）農田鼠害
1．東(dong)北地區偏(pian)(pian)重發生(sheng)(sheng)。遼寧中(zhong)等(deng)發生(sheng)(sheng)（3級(ji)）；吉(ji)林東(dong)部部分(fen)(fen)地區大(da)發生(sheng)(sheng)（5級(ji)），其他(ta)(ta)地區偏(pian)(pian)重發生(sheng)(sheng) (4級(ji))；黑龍江(jiang)哈爾濱、佳木斯、黑河(he)、齊齊哈爾等(deng)部分(fen)(fen)地區大(da)發生(sheng)(sheng)（5級(ji)），其他(ta)(ta)地區偏(pian)(pian)重發生(sheng)(sheng)（4級(ji)）。預計(ji)發生(sheng)(sheng)面積為：遼寧1300萬畝(mu)次，吉(ji)林3000萬畝(mu)次，黑龍江(jiang)5500萬畝(mu)次。
2．華(hua)(hua)北(bei)(bei)(bei)地(di)(di)區(qu)東部(bu)(bu)和北(bei)(bei)(bei)部(bu)(bu)偏(pian)重(zhong)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)，其他(ta)地(di)(di)區(qu)偏(pian)輕至(zhi)中(zhong)等發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)。北(bei)(bei)(bei)京、天(tian)(tian)津(jin)、河(he)(he)北(bei)(bei)(bei)南部(bu)(bu)、山(shan)(shan)西(xi)南部(bu)(bu)偏(pian)輕發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)（2級(ji)(ji)(ji)），河(he)(he)北(bei)(bei)(bei)北(bei)(bei)(bei)部(bu)(bu)張(zhang)家口(kou)、承德(de)地(di)(di)區(qu)中(zhong)等至(zhi)偏(pian)重(zhong)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)（3～4級(ji)(ji)(ji)），河(he)(he)北(bei)(bei)(bei)東部(bu)(bu)秦皇島、唐山(shan)(shan)等地(di)(di)偏(pian)重(zhong)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)（4級(ji)(ji)(ji)），山(shan)(shan)西(xi)中(zhong)條山(shan)(shan)沿線(xian)(xian)(xian)、呂梁山(shan)(shan)脈沿線(xian)(xian)(xian)、恒山(shan)(shan)山(shan)(shan)脈沿線(xian)(xian)(xian)，臨汾、長治等丘陵山(shan)(shan)區(qu)中(zhong)華(hua)(hua)鼢(fen)鼠、棕色田(tian)鼠偏(pian)重(zhong)至(zhi)大發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(4～5級(ji)(ji)(ji))；內(nei)蒙(meng)古大部(bu)(bu)中(zhong)等發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)（3級(ji)(ji)(ji)），其中(zhong)呼倫貝(bei)爾(er)市、興安盟(meng)(meng)、錫林郭勒盟(meng)(meng)、烏蘭察(cha)布(bu)市、鄂(e)爾(er)多斯、巴彥淖爾(er)等盟(meng)(meng)市的部(bu)(bu)分旗（縣）偏(pian)重(zhong)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)（4級(ji)(ji)(ji)）。預計發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)面積為(wei)：北(bei)(bei)(bei)京150萬畝(mu)次(ci)，天(tian)(tian)津(jin)200萬畝(mu)次(ci)，河(he)(he)北(bei)(bei)(bei)1600萬畝(mu)次(ci)，山(shan)(shan)西(xi)1800萬畝(mu)次(ci)，內(nei)蒙(meng)古1500萬畝(mu)次(ci)。
3．西北地區(qu)大(da)(da)(da)部(bu)中(zhong)等(deng)(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，局部(bu)偏(pian)(pian)重(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)。陜(shan)(shan)西大(da)(da)(da)部(bu)中(zhong)等(deng)(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)（3級(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)），陜(shan)(shan)北部(bu)分地區(qu)及陜(shan)(shan)南淺山區(qu)偏(pian)(pian)重(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)（4級(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)）；甘肅、寧夏(xia)大(da)(da)(da)部(bu)偏(pian)(pian)輕發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)（2級(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)），甘肅大(da)(da)(da)部(bu)中(zhong)華(hua)鼢鼠偏(pian)(pian)重(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)（4級(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)）；青海(hai)大(da)(da)(da)部(bu)高原鼢鼠偏(pian)(pian)重(zhong)至(zhi)大(da)(da)(da)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)（4～5級(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)）；新(xin)疆(jiang)(jiang)（含兵(bing)團）大(da)(da)(da)部(bu)中(zhong)等(deng)(deng)至(zhi)偏(pian)(pian)重(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)（3～4級(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)），伊犁(li)河谷、博(bo)(bo)州市、阿克蘇地區(qu)、和田地區(qu)、阿勒泰(tai)昌吉州、吐(tu)魯番(fan)市等(deng)(deng)農牧(mu)交錯(cuo)區(qu)和農林交錯(cuo)區(qu)偏(pian)(pian)重(zhong)至(zhi)大(da)(da)(da)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)（4～5級(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)），新(xin)疆(jiang)(jiang)兵(bing)團北疆(jiang)(jiang)塔城九(jiu)師、阿勒泰(tai)十師、伊犁(li)第(di)四師、博(bo)(bo)樂第(di)五師、昌吉第(di)六師奇臺農場(chang)、南疆(jiang)(jiang)第(di)二(er)師焉耆墾區(qu)等(deng)(deng)退耕還林地、玉(yu)米(mi)播種(zhong)區(qu)及糧食種(zhong)植區(qu)偏(pian)(pian)重(zhong)至(zhi)大(da)(da)(da)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)（4～5級(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)）。預計發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面積(ji)為(wei)：陜(shan)(shan)西800萬(wan)畝次(ci)(ci)、甘肅1200萬(wan)畝次(ci)(ci)、寧夏(xia)110萬(wan)畝次(ci)(ci)、青海(hai)450萬(wan)畝次(ci)(ci)、新(xin)疆(jiang)(jiang)（含兵(bing)團）910萬(wan)畝次(ci)(ci)。
4．華(hua)東地(di)(di)區局部(bu)中等(deng)(deng)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，大(da)部(bu)偏(pian)輕(qing)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)。上海、山(shan)東、江(jiang)(jiang)蘇(su)、安(an)徽大(da)部(bu)偏(pian)輕(qing)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)（1～2級(ji)(ji)），安(an)徽沿(yan)淮局部(bu)地(di)(di)區中等(deng)(deng)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)（3級(ji)(ji)）；浙(zhe)江(jiang)(jiang)中等(deng)(deng)至偏(pian)重(zhong)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)（3～4級(ji)(ji)）；江(jiang)(jiang)西大(da)部(bu)偏(pian)輕(qing)至中等(deng)(deng)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)（2～3級(ji)(ji)），江(jiang)(jiang)西環鄱陽(yang)湖地(di)(di)區及部(bu)分山(shan)區、丘陵地(di)(di)區中等(deng)(deng)至偏(pian)重(zhong)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)（3～4級(ji)(ji)）；福(fu)建大(da)部(bu)中等(deng)(deng)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)（3級(ji)(ji)），順昌、建陽(yang)、霞浦、邵武(wu)、詔安(an)等(deng)(deng)地(di)(di)偏(pian)重(zhong)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)（4級(ji)(ji)）。預計(ji)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面積為(wei)：上海100萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)次(ci)(ci)(ci)，山(shan)東2200萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)次(ci)(ci)(ci)，江(jiang)(jiang)蘇(su)2550萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)次(ci)(ci)(ci)，安(an)徽950萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)次(ci)(ci)(ci)，浙(zhe)江(jiang)(jiang)1000萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)次(ci)(ci)(ci)，江(jiang)(jiang)西1800萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)次(ci)(ci)(ci)，福(fu)建950萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)次(ci)(ci)(ci)。
5．華中(zhong)地(di)區偏輕發生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，局部(bu)偏重發生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)。河南(nan)、湖北大部(bu)中(zhong)等偏輕發生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)（2級(ji)(ji)），河南(nan)豫東(dong)(dong)沿黃(huang)沙地(di)小麥花生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)輪作區、豫西果園棕色田鼠(shu)(shu)偏重發生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)（4級(ji)(ji)），河南(nan)東(dong)(dong)部(bu)大倉(cang)鼠(shu)(shu)、褐(he)家鼠(shu)(shu)呈加重發生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)趨勢，并向黃(huang)淮(huai)、華北擴展(zhan)；湖南(nan)大部(bu)中(zhong)等至偏重發生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)（3～4級(ji)(ji)）。預計發生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面積為：河南(nan)1450萬(wan)畝(mu)次(ci)，湖北1000萬(wan)畝(mu)次(ci)，湖南(nan)2500萬(wan)畝(mu)次(ci)。
6．華南(nan)(nan)地(di)(di)區(qu)偏重(zhong)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)。廣(guang)(guang)東、廣(guang)(guang)西(xi)、海(hai)南(nan)(nan)大(da)部(bu)偏重(zhong)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)（4級），粵東、粵北和(he)珠(zhu)江三角(jiao)洲地(di)(di)區(qu)重(zhong)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)（5級）；廣(guang)(guang)西(xi)全州(zhou)、靈(ling)川、宜州(zhou)、巴馬、北流、靈(ling)山、柳江、融(rong)水和(he)上林(lin)等地(di)(di)部(bu)分地(di)(di)區(qu)重(zhong)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)（5級）；海(hai)南(nan)(nan)臨高、海(hai)口、儋州(zhou)、東方、三亞等地(di)(di)部(bu)分地(di)(di)區(qu)以(yi)及南(nan)(nan)繁基地(di)(di)重(zhong)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)（5級）。預計發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)面(mian)積為：廣(guang)(guang)東2050萬畝次，廣(guang)(guang)西(xi)2000萬畝次，海(hai)南(nan)(nan)240萬畝次。
7．西(xi)(xi)南地(di)區中等(deng)(deng)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，局部(bu)偏(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)重(zhong)(zhong)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)。重(zhong)(zhong)慶大部(bu)中等(deng)(deng)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)（3級(ji)(ji)(ji)），渝(yu)東北、渝(yu)西(xi)(xi)以(yi)及(ji)長江(jiang)、嘉陵(ling)江(jiang)沿線偏(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)重(zhong)(zhong)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)（4級(ji)(ji)(ji)）；四(si)川大部(bu)中等(deng)(deng)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)（3級(ji)(ji)(ji)），川西(xi)(xi)高原農牧交錯區、川南丘(qiu)陵(ling)區偏(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)重(zhong)(zhong)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)（4級(ji)(ji)(ji)）；貴州(zhou)大部(bu)中等(deng)(deng)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)（3級(ji)(ji)(ji)），黔(qian)北、黔(qian)中、黔(qian)東大部(bu)分地(di)區偏(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)重(zhong)(zhong)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)（4級(ji)(ji)(ji)）；云南大部(bu)中等(deng)(deng)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)（3級(ji)(ji)(ji)），滇中地(di)區、部(bu)分山(shan)區和半山(shan)區蔬菜(cai)、果(guo)樹、中藥材種植區偏(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)重(zhong)(zhong)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)（4級(ji)(ji)(ji)）；西(xi)(xi)藏(zang)大部(bu)中等(deng)(deng)至偏(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)重(zhong)(zhong)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)（3～4級(ji)(ji)(ji)），農牧交錯區偏(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)重(zhong)(zhong)至大發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)（4～5級(ji)(ji)(ji)）。預計發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面積為：重(zhong)(zhong)慶950萬畝次、四(si)川2300萬畝次、貴州(zhou)780萬畝次、云南1000萬畝次、西(xi)(xi)藏(zang)80萬畝次。
（二）農戶住宅區鼠害
預(yu)計全(quan)國農戶(hu)住宅區鼠害總體(ti)呈中等偏(pian)(pian)重發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)。東北(bei)大(da)(da)部(bu)、華(hua)(hua)南(nan)大(da)(da)部(bu)、華(hua)(hua)北(bei)部(bu)分(fen)地(di)區偏(pian)(pian)重至(zhi)大(da)(da)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)（4～5級(ji)），內蒙(meng)古、西藏、新(xin)疆(jiang)偏(pian)(pian)重發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)（4級(ji)），華(hua)(hua)北(bei)、華(hua)(hua)東、華(hua)(hua)中大(da)(da)部(bu)、西北(bei)大(da)(da)部(bu)、西南(nan)大(da)(da)部(bu)為中等發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)（3級(ji)），湖北(bei)、重慶、甘肅、寧夏(xia)、青海偏(pian)(pian)輕發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)（2級(ji)）。預(yu)計全(quan)年(nian)(nian)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)1.17億戶(hu)，比2017年(nian)(nian)減(jian)少100萬戶(hu)。
（三(san)）鼠傳疾(ji)病發(fa)生情況(kuang)
2017年(nian)1-11月份(fen)，全國共發生流(liu)行性出血熱9509例(li)、死亡39例(li)，鉤端螺(luo)旋體病199例(li)、無死亡。另外， 2017年(nian)我國部分地(di)區(qu)發生鼠間鼠疫。隨著氣溫回升(sheng)，部分地(di)區(qu)害鼠種群數(shu)量不(bu)斷(duan)增長(chang)，一些農(nong)村地(di)區(qu)將逐(zhu)步進(jin)入(ru)鼠傳疾病高發期，應高度重視。
二、預報依據
（一）北方(fang)秋季鼠(shu)密度(du)偏高，種群呈恢復性增長
據全國140個(ge)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)區鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)害(hai)(hai)監(jian)(jian)測(ce)點監(jian)(jian)測(ce)，2017年北方(fang)部(bu)分(fen)地區秋季鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)持續偏高(gao)(gao)。吉林農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)田(tian)(tian)(tian)(tian)害(hai)(hai)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)為(wei)2%～34.6%，平均13%、最(zui)(zui)高(gao)(gao)40.5%；農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)舍(she)(she)害(hai)(hai)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)為(wei)2%～29.5%，平均14.5%。黑龍(long)江農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)田(tian)(tian)(tian)(tian)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)為(wei)5%～25%，農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)田(tian)(tian)(tian)(tian)最(zui)(zui)高(gao)(gao)達(da)(da)20%，農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)舍(she)(she)最(zui)(zui)高(gao)(gao)達(da)(da)30%，全省平均鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)在10%以(yi)上(shang)的(de)重發面積(ji)達(da)(da)2500萬(wan)畝次以(yi)上(shang)。河北秋季最(zui)(zui)高(gao)(gao)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)達(da)(da)13.8%。山西中華鼢鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)一般有效洞數(shu)每(mei)(mei)(mei)公(gong)(gong)頃(qing)100～200個(ge)，最(zui)(zui)高(gao)(gao)每(mei)(mei)(mei)公(gong)(gong)頃(qing)可達(da)(da)500個(ge)。內蒙古農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)田(tian)(tian)(tian)(tian)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)為(wei)1%～11%，農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)舍(she)(she)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)為(wei) 2%～28%。甘(gan)肅農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)田(tian)(tian)(tian)(tian)地上(shang)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)最(zui)(zui)高(gao)(gao)達(da)(da)12.5 %，中華鼢鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)每(mei)(mei)(mei)公(gong)(gong)頃(qing)最(zui)(zui)高(gao)(gao)達(da)(da)8只，農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)舍(she)(she)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)最(zui)(zui)高(gao)(gao)達(da)(da)8.5%。青海(hai)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)田(tian)(tian)(tian)(tian)地上(shang)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)為(wei)2%～6%，地下鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)每(mei)(mei)(mei)公(gong)(gong)頃(qing)3～32只。新疆(jiang)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)田(tian)(tian)(tian)(tian)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)為(wei)0.6%～13.5%，農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)舍(she)(she)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)為(wei)0.8%～12%；新疆(jiang)生(sheng)產建設兵團(tuan)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)田(tian)(tian)(tian)(tian)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)為(wei)1%～13%，農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)舍(she)(she)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)為(wei)1.5%～14%。
此外，各地(di)應用TBS技(ji)術(shu)監測(ce)鼠(shu)(shu)害，青海60個(ge)TBS圍(wei)欄5個(ge)月(yue)(yue)共(gong)捕鼠(shu)(shu)2036只(zhi)(zhi)；吉林公(gong)主嶺地(di)區(qu)(qu)直線(xian)形(xing)TBS圍(wei)村監測(ce)4個(ge)月(yue)(yue)共(gong)捕鼠(shu)(shu)615只(zhi)(zhi)，長嶺縣(xian)采用4個(ge)60米(mi)直線(xian)形(xing)TBS 6個(ge)月(yue)(yue)在(zai)玉(yu)米(mi)田(tian)共(gong)捕鼠(shu)(shu)199只(zhi)(zhi)；內蒙古正藍旗(qi)800平(ping)方米(mi)TBS圍(wei)欄5個(ge)月(yue)(yue)在(zai)莜麥田(tian)共(gong)捕鼠(shu)(shu)212只(zhi)(zhi)；新(xin)疆博樂市(shi)270米(mi)直線(xian)形(xing)TBS 5個(ge)月(yue)(yue)共(gong)捕鼠(shu)(shu)280只(zhi)(zhi)老鼠(shu)(shu)。上述數據均表(biao)明(ming)，北方大部(bu)分(fen)地(di)區(qu)(qu)田(tian)間(jian)鼠(shu)(shu)類活動頻繁，部(bu)分(fen)地(di)區(qu)(qu)鼠(shu)(shu)密度偏高，田(tian)間(jian)種群(qun)呈恢復性增(zeng)長。
（二）南方(fang)大(da)部分鼠(shu)(shu)密(mi)度穩定，局部鼠(shu)(shu)密(mi)度上升(sheng)明(ming)顯
南(nan)(nan)(nan)方大部(bu)(bu)分地(di)區(qu)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)種(zhong)植基本穩定，海(hai)南(nan)(nan)(nan)南(nan)(nan)(nan)繁基地(di)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)持(chi)續偏高(gao)，受害程度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)較重。華(hua)東(dong)地(di)區(qu)。江(jiang)蘇農(nong)(nong)(nong)田(tian)(tian)(tian)(tian)(tian)平均鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)為(wei)(wei)(wei)2.8%，農(nong)(nong)(nong)舍(she)(she)平均鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)為(wei)(wei)(wei)4.2%。安徽省(sheng)農(nong)(nong)(nong)田(tian)(tian)(tian)(tian)(tian)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)為(wei)(wei)(wei)0.5%～3%，農(nong)(nong)(nong)舍(she)(she)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)為(wei)(wei)(wei)1%～5%。江(jiang)西農(nong)(nong)(nong)田(tian)(tian)(tian)(tian)(tian)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)為(wei)(wei)(wei)3.2%～4.4%。福建農(nong)(nong)(nong)田(tian)(tian)(tian)(tian)(tian)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)為(wei)(wei)(wei) 5%～13%，農(nong)(nong)(nong)舍(she)(she)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)為(wei)(wei)(wei) 3.5%～11%，仙(xian)游縣(xian)、順昌縣(xian)最(zui)(zui)高(gao)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)分別達(da)10.7%、13%。華(hua)中地(di)區(qu)。湖北(bei)(bei)、河南(nan)(nan)(nan)平均鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)為(wei)(wei)(wei)1%～3%，持(chi)續保(bao)持(chi)較低水平，但(dan)湖北(bei)(bei)荊州(zhou)部(bu)(bu)分稻田(tian)(tian)(tian)(tian)(tian)養蝦(xia)地(di)區(qu)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)達(da)8%，比2016年(nian)(nian)同期(qi)(qi)(qi)明(ming)(ming)顯(xian)(xian)上(shang)升(sheng)。湖南(nan)(nan)(nan)秋冬季農(nong)(nong)(nong)田(tian)(tian)(tian)(tian)(tian)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)為(wei)(wei)(wei)2%～8%，農(nong)(nong)(nong)舍(she)(she)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)為(wei)(wei)(wei)2.5%～10%，其(qi)中洞庭湖區(qu)11月(yue)東(dong)方田(tian)(tian)(tian)(tian)(tian)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)較低。華(hua)南(nan)(nan)(nan)地(di)區(qu)。廣西農(nong)(nong)(nong)田(tian)(tian)(tian)(tian)(tian)平均鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)為(wei)(wei)(wei)6%，農(nong)(nong)(nong)舍(she)(she)平均鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)為(wei)(wei)(wei)7.2%，與2016年(nian)(nian)同期(qi)(qi)(qi)持(chi)平，其(qi)中北(bei)(bei)流市(shi)11月(yue)農(nong)(nong)(nong)戶(hu)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)最(zui)(zui)高(gao)達(da)14%，比2016年(nian)(nian)同期(qi)(qi)(qi)明(ming)(ming)顯(xian)(xian)上(shang)升(sheng)。廣東(dong)農(nong)(nong)(nong)田(tian)(tian)(tian)(tian)(tian)平均鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)為(wei)(wei)(wei)8%，其(qi)中南(nan)(nan)(nan)雄(xiong)市(shi)11月(yue)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)最(zui)(zui)高(gao)達(da)23.5%，比2016年(nian)(nian)同期(qi)(qi)(qi)明(ming)(ming)顯(xian)(xian)上(shang)升(sheng)。海(hai)南(nan)(nan)(nan)農(nong)(nong)(nong)田(tian)(tian)(tian)(tian)(tian)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)為(wei)(wei)(wei)3%～18%，農(nong)(nong)(nong)舍(she)(she)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)為(wei)(wei)(wei)8%～15%，其(qi)中臨高(gao)平均捕獲率為(wei)(wei)(wei)15.6%，三(san)亞市(shi)最(zui)(zui)高(gao)捕獲率達(da)23%，臨高(gao)、三(san)亞等局(ju)部(bu)(bu)地(di)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)持(chi)續偏高(gao)。西南(nan)(nan)(nan)地(di)區(qu)。四川農(nong)(nong)(nong)田(tian)(tian)(tian)(tian)(tian)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)為(wei)(wei)(wei)1%～8%，農(nong)(nong)(nong)舍(she)(she)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)為(wei)(wei)(wei)0.6%～6.3%，其(qi)中江(jiang)安縣(xian)11月(yue)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)達(da)9.5%，比2016年(nian)(nian)同期(qi)(qi)(qi)明(ming)(ming)顯(xian)(xian)上(shang)升(sheng)。貴州(zhou)農(nong)(nong)(nong)田(tian)(tian)(tian)(tian)(tian)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)為(wei)(wei)(wei)5%～10%，農(nong)(nong)(nong)舍(she)(she)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)為(wei)(wei)(wei)5%～8%，比2016年(nian)(nian)同期(qi)(qi)(qi)略有(you)增長。云南(nan)(nan)(nan)農(nong)(nong)(nong)田(tian)(tian)(tian)(tian)(tian)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)為(wei)(wei)(wei)1.6%～3.4%，農(nong)(nong)(nong)舍(she)(she)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)為(wei)(wei)(wei)2.3%～6.2%，與2016年(nian)(nian)同期(qi)(qi)(qi)持(chi)平。西藏農(nong)(nong)(nong)田(tian)(tian)(tian)(tian)(tian)最(zui)(zui)高(gao)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)達(da)7.3%，農(nong)(nong)(nong)戶(hu)最(zui)(zui)高(gao)鼠(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)密(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)達(da)11.2%。
此外，廣(guang)西(xi)靈川(chuan)縣800 平(ping)方米矩形(xing)TBS圍(wei)欄(lan)4個(ge)(ge)月(yue)共(gong)(gong)捕(bu)鼠305只，四川(chuan)省(sheng)通江(jiang)縣、綿竹(zhu)市(shi)180米直(zhi)線(xian)(xian)形(xing)TBS圍(wei)欄(lan)6個(ge)(ge)月(yue)分別(bie)捕(bu)鼠111只、145只，河南郾城區(qu)、湖北(bei)蔡(cai)甸區(qu)120米直(zhi)線(xian)(xian)形(xing)TBS圍(wei)欄(lan)7個(ge)(ge)月(yue)分別(bie)捕(bu)鼠167只、60只，貴州省(sheng)安龍縣180米直(zhi)線(xian)(xian)形(xing)TBS圍(wei)欄(lan)10個(ge)(ge)月(yue)共(gong)(gong)捕(bu)鼠360只，關嶺縣、大方縣120米直(zhi)線(xian)(xian)形(xing)TBS圍(wei)欄(lan)10個(ge)(ge)月(yue)分別(bie)捕(bu)鼠102只、77只。上述數據(ju)均(jun)表明，南方大部分地(di)區(qu)鼠密度平(ping)穩，種群整體處于平(ping)穩期，少部分地(di)區(qu)鼠密度出現增長。
三、2018年主要優勢鼠種和春(chun)季防治(zhi)時(shi)期
東北地區以褐家(jia)鼠(shu)、黑線姬鼠(shu)、黑線倉(cang)鼠(shu)、大倉(cang)鼠(shu)為(wei)(wei)主要優(you)勢鼠(shu)種，春季防(fang)治(zhi)時期為(wei)(wei)4月下旬(xun)(xun)至(zhi)5月中旬(xun)(xun)春播前。
華北(bei)地區(qu)以(yi)褐家(jia)鼠(shu)(shu)、黑線倉鼠(shu)(shu)、中華鼢鼠(shu)(shu)、長(chang)爪沙鼠(shu)(shu)、達烏(wu)爾黃鼠(shu)(shu)為主要優勢鼠(shu)(shu)種，春(chun)季防治時期為4月上旬至5月上旬。
西北地區以中華鼢鼠(shu)(shu)、褐家鼠(shu)(shu)、小家鼠(shu)(shu)、灰倉鼠(shu)(shu)為(wei)主要優(you)勢鼠(shu)(shu)種，春季防治(zhi)時(shi)期為(wei)4月中旬至5月中旬。
華東地(di)區以黑線姬鼠(shu)、黃(huang)胸鼠(shu)、褐家鼠(shu)、黃(huang)毛(mao)鼠(shu)、大倉鼠(shu)為主要優勢鼠(shu)種，春(chun)季防治時期為3月中旬至4月中旬。
華中地(di)區以黑(hei)線姬鼠(shu)(shu)、褐家鼠(shu)(shu)、棕色田鼠(shu)(shu)、黃胸鼠(shu)(shu)、大倉(cang)鼠(shu)(shu)為(wei)主要優勢(shi)鼠(shu)(shu)種，春季防治時期為(wei)3月上旬至4月中旬。
華(hua)南(nan)地(di)區以黃毛鼠(shu)(shu)、板齒鼠(shu)(shu)、褐(he)家鼠(shu)(shu)、小家鼠(shu)(shu)、黃胸鼠(shu)(shu)為主要(yao)優(you)勢(shi)鼠(shu)(shu)種，春季防(fang)治時(shi)期為2月(yue)下旬至4月(yue)上旬。
西南(nan)地區以褐家鼠(shu)、短尾鼩、黑線姬鼠(shu)、黃胸(xiong)鼠(shu)、高山姬鼠(shu)等為主要優(you)勢鼠(shu)種，春季防治時期為3月(yue)下旬至4月(yue)下旬。
預計海南(nan)、廣西部分(fen)地區(qu)(qu)(qu)1月中旬(xun)(xun)至(zhi)(zhi)2月底即出現(xian)首次為(wei)(wei)(wei)害(hai)高峰期，南(nan)方(fang)大(da)(da)部分(fen)地區(qu)(qu)(qu)3月下(xia)旬(xun)(xun)至(zhi)(zhi)4月上旬(xun)(xun)為(wei)(wei)(wei)嚴重(zhong)為(wei)(wei)(wei)害(hai)期，北方(fang)地區(qu)(qu)(qu)5月上旬(xun)(xun)至(zhi)(zhi)6月上旬(xun)(xun)為(wei)(wei)(wei)嚴重(zhong)為(wei)(wei)(wei)害(hai)期。北方(fang)部分(fen)地區(qu)(qu)(qu)春播(bo)和南(nan)方(fang)冬(dong)季蔬菜(cai)生產(chan)將受(shou)到害(hai)鼠(shu)的影響，特別(bie)是(shi)北方(fang)水(shui)稻插秧期、春播(bo)玉米(mi)田、大(da)(da)豆田預計受(shou)害(hai)較重(zhong)；種(zhong)植業結(jie)構調整(zheng)區(qu)(qu)(qu)特別(bie)是(shi)糧改經（豆）、稻魚（蝦(xia)）循環種(zhong)養殖區(qu)(qu)(qu)，部分(fen)湖區(qu)(qu)(qu)、庫(ku)區(qu)(qu)(qu)、山區(qu)(qu)(qu)（半山區(qu)(qu)(qu)），以及農林、農牧交錯地帶將危害(hai)較重(zhong)。
