1 晚稻(dao)前(qian)期發生概(gai)況
受(shou)氣候(hou)、田間生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)境等(deng)各方面因素影(ying)響，晚稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)前期(qi)(qi)主(zhu)(zhu)要(yao)病(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)鼠害總(zong)體發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)程度同(tong)比(bi)偏(pian)(pian)輕(qing)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面積約980萬(wan)畝(mu)。發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)情況(kuang)與上年同(tong)期(qi)(qi)相比(bi)：稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)飛虱、稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)縱卷(juan)葉螟(ming)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)期(qi)(qi)接近上年，發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)偏(pian)(pian)輕(qing)；稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)瘟病(bing)(bing)始見期(qi)(qi)偏(pian)(pian)早3~5天，桂(gui)中(zhong)、桂(gui)西(xi)(xi)南(nan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)偏(pian)(pian)重(zhong)，其(qi)它稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)區(qu)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)偏(pian)(pian)輕(qing)；稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)紋枯病(bing)(bing)基本持平；三化螟(ming)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)期(qi)(qi)偏(pian)(pian)遲5天左(zuo)右(you)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)偏(pian)(pian)輕(qing)；稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)癭蚊(wen)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)有所回(hui)升，主(zhu)(zhu)要(yao)在(zai)桂(gui)中(zhong)、桂(gui)西(xi)(xi)南(nan)、桂(gui)南(nan)局部(bu)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)；桂(gui)東(dong)南(nan)、沿海稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)區(qu)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)水(shui)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)橙葉病(bing)(bing)為害；南(nan)方水(shui)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)黑條矮縮病(bing)(bing)主(zhu)(zhu)要(yao)在(zai)桂(gui)東(dong)南(nan)、沿海、桂(gui)西(xi)(xi)南(nan)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)區(qu)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)；局部(bu)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)區(qu)的(de)二化螟(ming)、臺(tai)灣稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)螟(ming)、稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)象(xiang)甲、稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)葉水(shui)蠅、福壽(shou)螺、根結線蟲(chong)、水(shui)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)跗(fu)線螨、水(shui)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)細菌性條斑(ban)病(bing)(bing)等(deng)有不同(tong)程度的(de)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)。
2 晚稻中后期主要病蟲鼠發生趨勢
總體發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)程(cheng)度4（5）級，與上年(nian)(nian)基(ji)本持平(ping)。與上年(nian)(nian)相比，稻(dao)縱(zong)卷葉螟、稻(dao)飛(fei)虱(shi)、紋枯(ku)病發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)持平(ping)，三化螟發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)偏(pian)輕，稻(dao)瘟病發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)略重(zhong)。
2.1 三化(hua)螟 第四代(dai)三化(hua)螟發生(sheng)程(cheng)度(du)1（3）級，與上年相(xiang)比(bi)，大部(bu)稻區(qu)持(chi)平到偏輕。重發區(qu)域在(zai)桂中、桂東的(de)局(ju)部(bu)及右江河谷的(de)部(bu)分稻區(qu)。全區(qu)發生(sheng)面積110萬(wan)畝。防(fang)治時段：9月中旬至(zhi)10月上旬。
2.2 二化(hua)螟 預(yu)計二化(hua)螟在(zai)桂(gui)東、桂(gui)西(xi)稻區(qu)發生程度為1（3）級，發生面積100萬畝。防治時段：9月中旬(xun)至(zhi)下旬(xun)初。
2.3 稻飛虱 發(fa)生(sheng)程度4（5）級(ji)，同比持平，發(fa)生(sheng)面(mian)積800萬畝(mu)。全(quan)區(qu)(qu)普遍發(fa)生(sheng)，重發(fa)區(qu)(qu)在桂東北(bei)、桂東南(nan)的(de)(de)大部及桂西(xi)南(nan)的(de)(de)局部。發(fa)生(sheng)時段：第六代8月(yue)下旬末至9月(yue)中(zhong)旬；第七代9月(yue)下旬至10月(yue)中(zhong)旬。
2.4 稻縱(zong)卷(juan)葉螟(ming) 發生(sheng)程(cheng)度2（4）級，同比(bi)持平，發生(sheng)面積420萬畝(mu)。主要發生(sheng)區(qu)域在桂東北、桂中(zhong)、桂東南的大部、桂西北、桂西南及沿(yan)海的部分(fen)稻區(qu)。第六代8月(yue)下旬(xun)(xun)(xun)末至(zhi)9月(yue)中(zhong)旬(xun)(xun)(xun)；第七代9月(yue)下旬(xun)(xun)(xun)至(zhi)10月(yue)上旬(xun)(xun)(xun)。生(sheng)長嫩(nen)綠的遲插田將受害嚴(yan)重(zhong)。
2.5 稻(dao)紋枯(ku)病 發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)程度(du)4（5）級(ji)，同比持平，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)面(mian)積850萬(wan)畝。全區(qu)大部普(pu)遍(bian)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)。重(zhong)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)區(qu)在桂東(dong)北、桂東(dong)南及沿海稻(dao)區(qu)。流行盛期：9月(yue)上旬末至10月(yue)下旬初。
2.6 稻瘟(wen)病(bing) 發(fa)生(sheng)程度(du)2（3）級，同比略(lve)重。桂(gui)東北(bei)、桂(gui)東南、桂(gui)西(xi)北(bei)等(deng)歷史性發(fa)生(sheng)區將偏重發(fa)生(sheng)，部(bu)分高感(gan)品種有大(da)流行(xing)的可能。發(fa)生(sheng)面積260萬畝。流行(xing)時段(duan)：葉瘟(wen)，持續至(zhi)9月下旬初；穗頸瘟(wen)，9月中(zhong)旬至(zhi)10月上旬。
2.7 南方水稻黑條(tiao)矮縮病 發生程(cheng)度1（3）級(ji)，同比持平。發生面積100萬畝。
2.8水稻細菌性條斑病(bing) 發生程(cheng)度1（3）級，同比稍重，發生面積(ji)150萬畝。主要發生區域(yu)是桂(gui)(gui)東北大(da)部(bu)及桂(gui)(gui)中(zhong)、桂(gui)(gui)西北、桂(gui)(gui)東南及沿海的部(bu)分稻區。
2.9 農(nong)區鼠害 發(fa)生(sheng)程度(du)3級，發(fa)生(sheng)與上年持平，發(fa)生(sheng)面積700萬畝。全區普遍(bian)發(fa)生(sheng)。
此外，臺灣(wan)稻(dao)螟、粘(zhan)蟲(chong)、稻(dao)象(xiang)甲、稻(dao)苞(bao)蟲(chong)、稻(dao)葉水蠅(ying)、褔壽螺、根結線蟲(chong)、水稻(dao)跗線螨、稻(dao)曲病、稻(dao)白葉枯病等病蟲(chong)在(zai)局部稻(dao)區將有不(bu)同程(cheng)度的發(fa)生。
3 預測主要依據
3.1 病蟲源基數
三化螟 統(tong)(tong)(tong)計(ji)(ji)45個縣(xian)（市、區(qu)(qu)）晚(wan)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)前(qian)期(qi)三化螟發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)30.25萬畝(mu)，接近上(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)。畝(mu)蟲量一(yi)(yi)般(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)15~267頭(tou)，高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)的(de)(de)(de)302~895頭(tou)，桂(gui)(gui)(gui)(gui)西南(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)少(shao)數(shu)田(tian)(tian)(tian)塊(kuai)(kuai)則高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)達2411頭(tou)；與上(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)期(qi)相比(bi)：桂(gui)(gui)(gui)(gui)中(zhong)、桂(gui)(gui)(gui)(gui)西、桂(gui)(gui)(gui)(gui)南(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)局(ju)部(bu)田(tian)(tian)(tian)塊(kuai)(kuai)增(zeng)幅(fu)(fu)(fu)為(wei)(wei)34.26%~50%，其它稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)區(qu)(qu)減(jian)幅(fu)(fu)(fu)為(wei)(wei)6.5%~66.67%。稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)飛虱 統(tong)(tong)(tong)計(ji)(ji)36個縣(xian)（市、區(qu)(qu)）晚(wan)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)前(qian)期(qi)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)飛虱發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)102.68萬畝(mu)，比(bi)上(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)減(jian)少(shao)18.06%，百(bai)叢蟲量一(yi)(yi)般(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)48～863頭(tou)，高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)的(de)(de)(de)1060～2001頭(tou)，桂(gui)(gui)(gui)(gui)東南(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)少(shao)數(shu)田(tian)(tian)(tian)塊(kuai)(kuai)高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)達6000頭(tou)，中(zhong)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)區(qu)(qu)個別(bie)田(tian)(tian)(tian)塊(kuai)(kuai)則高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)達5200~11500頭(tou)。與上(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)期(qi)相比(bi)：桂(gui)(gui)(gui)(gui)中(zhong)、桂(gui)(gui)(gui)(gui)東北(bei)、桂(gui)(gui)(gui)(gui)西南(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)局(ju)部(bu)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)田(tian)(tian)(tian)增(zeng)幅(fu)(fu)(fu)為(wei)(wei)4.48%~51.3%，桂(gui)(gui)(gui)(gui)東南(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)局(ju)部(bu)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)區(qu)(qu)增(zeng)幅(fu)(fu)(fu)達到了1.6倍以上(shang)；其它稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)區(qu)(qu)減(jian)幅(fu)(fu)(fu)為(wei)(wei)6.67%~91.3%。稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)縱卷葉(xie)(xie)螟 統(tong)(tong)(tong)計(ji)(ji)37個縣(xian)（市、區(qu)(qu)）晚(wan)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)前(qian)期(qi)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)縱卷葉(xie)(xie)螟發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)50.47萬畝(mu)，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)減(jian)少(shao)33.18%，百(bai)叢蟲量一(yi)(yi)般(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)2～60頭(tou)，高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)的(de)(de)(de)128~549頭(tou)；與去(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)期(qi)相比(bi)：桂(gui)(gui)(gui)(gui)中(zhong)、桂(gui)(gui)(gui)(gui)東北(bei)、桂(gui)(gui)(gui)(gui)西南(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)局(ju)部(bu)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)區(qu)(qu)增(zeng)幅(fu)(fu)(fu)為(wei)(wei)8.3%~99%，桂(gui)(gui)(gui)(gui)中(zhong)個別(bie)田(tian)(tian)(tian)塊(kuai)(kuai)增(zeng)幅(fu)(fu)(fu)達到2倍以上(shang)；其它稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)區(qu)(qu)減(jian)幅(fu)(fu)(fu)為(wei)(wei)20%~96%。稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)紋枯病(bing)(bing)(bing) 統(tong)(tong)(tong)計(ji)(ji)33個縣(xian)（市、區(qu)(qu)）前(qian)期(qi)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)紋枯病(bing)(bing)(bing)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)23.49萬畝(mu)，與上(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)期(qi)持平(ping)。近期(qi)調(diao)查(cha)，主(zhu)(zhu)要在桂(gui)(gui)(gui)(gui)東北(bei)、桂(gui)(gui)(gui)(gui)中(zhong)、桂(gui)(gui)(gui)(gui)西南(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)、桂(gui)(gui)(gui)(gui)東南(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)及(ji)桂(gui)(gui)(gui)(gui)南(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)局(ju)部(bu)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)區(qu)(qu)早移植田(tian)(tian)(tian)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，病(bing)(bing)(bing)叢率(lv)(lv)(lv)一(yi)(yi)般(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)4.7%~18.1%，高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)的(de)(de)(de)21.78%~48.57%；病(bing)(bing)(bing)株(zhu)率(lv)(lv)(lv)一(yi)(yi)般(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)0.5%~3.26%，高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)的(de)(de)(de)8.35～14%；病(bing)(bing)(bing)情(qing)指數(shu)一(yi)(yi)般(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)0.03~1.54，高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)的(de)(de)(de)6.2~10.5。稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)瘟病(bing)(bing)(bing) 統(tong)(tong)(tong)計(ji)(ji)39個縣(xian)（市、區(qu)(qu)）前(qian)期(qi)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)瘟病(bing)(bing)(bing)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)24.39萬畝(mu)，比(bi)上(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)期(qi)減(jian)少(shao)14.57%。桂(gui)(gui)(gui)(gui)中(zhong)、桂(gui)(gui)(gui)(gui)西南(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)、桂(gui)(gui)(gui)(gui)西北(bei)局(ju)部(bu)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)區(qu)(qu)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)較重(zhong)，病(bing)(bing)(bing)葉(xie)(xie)率(lv)(lv)(lv)一(yi)(yi)般(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)2.6%~30%，高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)的(de)(de)(de)52.3%~100%，比(bi)去(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)期(qi)增(zeng)幅(fu)(fu)(fu)23.23%~48.61%，個別(bie)田(tian)(tian)(tian)塊(kuai)(kuai)增(zeng)幅(fu)(fu)(fu)為(wei)(wei)1.71倍以上(shang)；病(bing)(bing)(bing)指一(yi)(yi)般(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)0.16~4.7，高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)的(de)(de)(de)5.9~9.7，個別(bie)田(tian)(tian)(tian)塊(kuai)(kuai)高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)達24.73~38；比(bi)去(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)期(qi)增(zeng)幅(fu)(fu)(fu)為(wei)(wei)25.8%~33.8%。其它稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)區(qu)(qu)病(bing)(bing)(bing)葉(xie)(xie)率(lv)(lv)(lv)一(yi)(yi)般(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)0.6%~6.31%，高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)的(de)(de)(de)11.53%~20.2%；病(bing)(bing)(bing)指一(yi)(yi)般(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)0.05~3.2。水(shui)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)細菌(jun)性條斑病(bing)(bing)(bing) 主(zhu)(zhu)要發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)區(qu)(qu)域為(wei)(wei)桂(gui)(gui)(gui)(gui)西北(bei)、桂(gui)(gui)(gui)(gui)中(zhong)、桂(gui)(gui)(gui)(gui)西南(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)及(ji)桂(gui)(gui)(gui)(gui)東南(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)局(ju)部(bu)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)區(qu)(qu)。近期(qi)各地(di)調(diao)查(cha)：病(bing)(bing)(bing)葉(xie)(xie)率(lv)(lv)(lv)一(yi)(yi)般(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)10.3%~27.8%，高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)的(de)(de)(de)41.5%~66.3%。鼠害(hai) 靈山縣(xian)監測點前(qian)期(qi)調(diao)查(cha)：農田(tian)(tian)(tian)捕夾率(lv)(lv)(lv)平(ping)均5.07%，高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)的(de)(de)(de)7.33%；農舍捕夾率(lv)(lv)(lv)平(ping)均5.82%，高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)的(de)(de)(de)9.33%。前(qian)期(qi)各地(di)調(diao)查(cha)為(wei)(wei)害(hai)率(lv)(lv)(lv)一(yi)(yi)般(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)0.26%~1%，高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)的(de)(de)(de)3%~6.7%，比(bi)去(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)期(qi)稍重(zhong)。
3.2 農事操作(zuo)(zuo)、田(tian)間(jian)小生境(jing)利于(yu)病蟲擴散蔓延 截至8月23日，全(quan)(quan)區晚(wan)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)插秧工作(zuo)(zuo)基(ji)本結束，同(tong)比快3天。已(yi)插晚(wan)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)1391.6萬畝，同(tong)比少(shao)(shao)40.91萬畝，少(shao)(shao)2.85個百分點，已(yi)插晚(wan)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)中雜交稻(dao)(dao)(dao)1132.92萬畝，優質稻(dao)(dao)(dao)1225.4萬畝，超級稻(dao)(dao)(dao)598.81萬畝。全(quan)(quan)區晚(wan)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)追肥一(yi)(yi)次1358.95萬畝，追肥二(er)次1100.38萬畝，分別占已(yi)插面(mian)積(ji)的97.65%、79.07%。各地田(tian)間(jian)管理工作(zuo)(zuo)有序進行，總體長勢良好。目前晚(wan)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)一(yi)(yi)、二(er)類(lei)苗共達86.12%，同(tong)比增0.28個百分點。中稻(dao)(dao)(dao)面(mian)積(ji)較大(da)，早、中稻(dao)(dao)(dao)蓄留再(zai)生稻(dao)(dao)(dao)面(mian)積(ji)9.04萬畝，接近上(shang)年。田(tian)間(jian)復雜苗情，利于(yu)病蟲害的滋生、繁殖、擴展、蔓延。
3.3 氣候條(tiao)件 8月上(shang)旬(xun)降(jiang)(jiang)雨(yu)量5.6~262.2毫(hao)(hao)(hao)(hao)米(mi)(mi)，其(qi)中(zhong)桂西(xi)北大(da)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)，桂南(nan)(nan)局(ju)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)100毫(hao)(hao)(hao)(hao)米(mi)(mi)以上(shang)；與常年(nian)同(tong)期(qi)相比，桂南(nan)(nan)大(da)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)、桂東北部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)分(fen)(fen)市縣偏少1~9成，其(qi)余大(da)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)地區偏多1成~3.5倍(bei)；中(zhong)旬(xun)受(shou)“貝(bei)碧嘉(jia)”和冷空氣的(de)共同(tong)影(ying)響(xiang)，全區各地降(jiang)(jiang)雨(yu)量0~213.2毫(hao)(hao)(hao)(hao)米(mi)(mi)，其(qi)中(zhong)，桂南(nan)(nan)局(ju)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)、沿海地區及資源等地100.0~213.2毫(hao)(hao)(hao)(hao)米(mi)(mi)，宜州無降(jiang)(jiang)雨(yu)；與常年(nian)同(tong)期(qi)相比，桂南(nan)(nan)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)分(fen)(fen)市縣、桂中(zhong)局(ju)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)和資源、灌陽、賀州等地偏多2成~1.1倍(bei)，其(qi)余大(da)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)地區正(zheng)常到偏少1~10成。下旬(xun)平均(jun)氣溫全區偏低1~2℃，降(jiang)(jiang)雨(yu)量全區大(da)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)偏多4~8成，局(ju)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)偏多1倍(bei)以上(shang)。降(jiang)(jiang)雨(yu)量較(jiao)常年(nian)偏多，使(shi)得(de)晚稻(dao)前期(qi)的(de)病(bing)蟲(chong)防治效(xiao)果大(da)大(da)降(jiang)(jiang)低，局(ju)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)稻(dao)區的(de)田間殘蟲(chong)量大(da)，田間小生境利于病(bing)菌(jun)的(de)生長繁殖，病(bing)蟲(chong)源基數偏大(da)，晚稻(dao)中(zhong)后期(qi)的(de)病(bing)蟲(chong)發生態勢將十分(fen)(fen)嚴峻。
4 監控意見(jian)
4.1 加強監(jian)測(ce)，及時(shi)(shi)發(fa)布(bu)病(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)情報 各(ge)級(ji)農業植保技術人員要按(an)照“天天調(diao)查，五(wu)天一報，重大(da)病(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)隨(sui)時(shi)(shi)匯報”制度(du)繼續深入田間調(diao)查，在做好(hao)常(chang)規病(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)調(diao)查的同時(shi)(shi)，注意突(tu)發(fa)性(xing)病(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)的監(jian)測(ce)，及時(shi)(shi)掌握(wo)發(fa)生動(dong)態，準確發(fa)布(bu)病(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)情報，為各(ge)級(ji)領導制定決策提供(gong)依據，指導面上防(fang)治。
4.2 健身(shen)栽培，控制(zhi)病(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)發(fa)生(sheng)流行 加強(qiang)中(zhong)后期(qi)田間(jian)管(guan)理，實(shi)行科學肥水管(guan)理，創(chuang)造(zao)不(bu)利病(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)發(fa)生(sheng)流行的生(sheng)態環境，增(zeng)強(qiang)植(zhi)株抗病(bing)能力，減輕為(wei)害損失。
4.3 明確主攻對象，適時開展防治 就全區而言，防治的主要對象是三化螟、稻飛虱、稻瘟病、稻紋枯病，部分地區還要做好水稻細菌性條斑病、南方水稻黑條矮縮病、稻縱卷葉螟、二化螟、臺灣稻螟等病蟲防治工作。各地植保部門應根據當地病蟲發生實況，因地制宜分類指導防治工作。對于病蟲的防治宜提倡經濟效益與生態效益并重，協調使用各種科學有效的防治措施，大力推廣無害化治理技術，實施生態控害；應急防治要推廣使用高效、經濟、安全農藥。
