7月(yue)(yue)22－24日，全(quan)國農技(ji)中心在甘肅(su)省蘭(lan)州市召開了2019全(quan)國玉(yu)(yu)(yu)米(mi)病(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)害(hai)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)趨勢(shi)會(hui)商會(hui)。來(lai)自全(quan)國玉(yu)(yu)(yu)米(mi)生(sheng)產(chan)省（區、市）的測(ce)報技(ji)術人員和(he)科研教學單位相關專家，在總結(jie)玉(yu)(yu)(yu)米(mi)上(shang)(shang)半年(nian)病(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)害(hai)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)情況的基(ji)礎上(shang)(shang)，根據目前病(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)基(ji)數、玉(yu)(yu)(yu)米(mi)種植方式及作(zuo)物布(bu)局，結(jie)合未來(lai)氣候(hou)因素綜合分析，預計(ji)今年(nian)下半年(nian)玉(yu)(yu)(yu)米(mi)病(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)害(hai)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)程度將明(ming)顯重(zhong)于上(shang)(shang)年(nian)和(he)常(chang)年(nian)，草地(di)貪夜蛾、三代粘蟲(chong)(chong)、二代草地(di)螟、棉鈴蟲(chong)(chong)等遷(qian)飛性害(hai)蟲(chong)(chong)對玉(yu)(yu)(yu)米(mi)生(sheng)產(chan)威(wei)脅大(da)，玉(yu)(yu)(yu)米(mi)螟、大(da)斑病(bing)、褐斑病(bing)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)普遍；為害(hai)盛期北(bei)方大(da)部(bu)在7月(yue)(yue)下旬至8月(yue)(yue)底(di)，南方玉(yu)(yu)(yu)米(mi)種植區可(ke)持續到10月(yue)(yue)底(di)。
一、上半年發生(sheng)概(gai)況
上半年(nian)玉米病蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)害發生(sheng)程度總(zong)體重于(yu)上年(nian)，發生(sheng)面積(ji)3.27億畝(mu)次(ci)，蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)害發生(sheng)3.1億畝(mu)次(ci)，病害發生(sheng)1700萬(wan)畝(mu)次(ci)。其中，二代粘蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)、草地貪(tan)夜蛾、一(yi)代草地螟(ming)等遷飛性(xing)害蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)為害嚴重，地下害蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)、一(yi)代玉米螟(ming)發生(sheng)普遍，二代棉(mian)鈴蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)、二點委夜蛾和薊馬在黃淮海部分地區上升為害。
草(cao)地(di)貪夜蛾(e)在(zai)(zai)21個省份發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，實查發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)1188萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)，呈現發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)范(fan)圍(wei)廣、擴展(zhan)速度(du)快(kuai)、為害(hai)(hai)程(cheng)度(du)重的特點，西(xi)南、華(hua)(hua)(hua)南等(deng)(deng)南方部分(fen)地(di)區(qu)蟲口密度(du)大、被害(hai)(hai)株率高(gao)。二代粘蟲發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)5000萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)，明顯重于2014－2018年，西(xi)南、西(xi)北(bei)、東(dong)北(bei)和華(hua)(hua)(hua)北(bei)局(ju)部存在(zai)(zai)重發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)區(qu)域或(huo)地(di)塊。草(cao)地(di)螟(ming)進(jin)入(ru)新的發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)周期(qi)，一代在(zai)(zai)內蒙(meng)古及(ji)其周邊的山西(xi)、河北(bei)、陜西(xi)局(ju)部偏重發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)為320萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)。二點委(wei)夜蛾(e)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)1500萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)，天津、山西(xi)、河北(bei)、山東(dong)局(ju)部地(di)區(qu)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)重于上(shang)年。地(di)下害(hai)(hai)蟲發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)8800萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)，東(dong)北(bei)、華(hua)(hua)(hua)北(bei)、西(xi)北(bei)部分(fen)地(di)區(qu)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)普遍，局(ju)部程(cheng)度(du)較重。玉米螟(ming)在(zai)(zai)東(dong)北(bei)、華(hua)(hua)(hua)北(bei)、黃淮、西(xi)南等(deng)(deng)大部發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)程(cheng)度(du)接近常(chang)年，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)為4500萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)。二代棉鈴蟲、薊馬在(zai)(zai)黃淮海大部發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)較為突(tu)出，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)為3000萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)。
紋枯病(bing)、粗縮(suo)病(bing)前(qian)期發(fa)生相對較重，發(fa)生面積超過300萬畝(mu)，大斑(ban)病(bing)、小斑(ban)病(bing)、銹病(bing)在各玉米產區陸續見(jian)病(bing)，病(bing)害總體程度較輕。
二、下(xia)半年(nian)發生(sheng)趨勢
預計下半(ban)年全國(guo)玉米病蟲害(hai)(hai)發生8.6億畝次(ci)(ci)，蟲害(hai)(hai)5.8億畝次(ci)(ci)，病害(hai)(hai)2.8億畝次(ci)(ci)。
遷飛性(xing)害蟲(chong)對下半(ban)年玉(yu)米(mi)(mi)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)威脅最大(da)(da)，其(qi)(qi)中(zhong)(zhong)，草(cao)地(di)(di)貪夜(ye)蛾為(wei)(wei)(wei)害重(zhong)點區域(yu)為(wei)(wei)(wei)西(xi)南(nan)(nan)、華(hua)南(nan)(nan)、江(jiang)南(nan)(nan)夏秋(qiu)玉(yu)米(mi)(mi)區，以云南(nan)(nan)和廣西(xi)等(deng)(deng)(deng)本(ben)地(di)(di)蟲(chong)源多代(dai)繁(fan)殖和境外蟲(chong)源持續(xu)侵入(ru)區發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)最重(zhong)；黃(huang)淮(huai)海、西(xi)北(bei)(bei)等(deng)(deng)(deng)地(di)(di)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)區域(yu)會繼(ji)續(xu)擴大(da)(da)，總體為(wei)(wei)(wei)點片或零(ling)星發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，全國發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)為(wei)(wei)(wei)2000萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)。三代(dai)粘蟲(chong)中(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)(deng)(deng)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，東北(bei)(bei)、華(hua)北(bei)(bei)、西(xi)南(nan)(nan)局部(bu)會出現高密度集中(zhong)(zhong)為(wei)(wei)(wei)害區域(yu)，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)為(wei)(wei)(wei)3500萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)。二代(dai)草(cao)地(di)(di)螟(ming)在內蒙古及(ji)其(qi)(qi)周邊地(di)(di)區偏重(zhong)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)可能(neng)性(xing)大(da)(da)，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)為(wei)(wei)(wei)600萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)。三、四代(dai)棉鈴蟲(chong)在黃(huang)淮(huai)海地(di)(di)區可達偏重(zhong)程度，其(qi)(qi)他地(di)(di)區中(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)(deng)(deng)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)為(wei)(wei)(wei)6000萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)。玉(yu)米(mi)(mi)螟(ming)在東北(bei)(bei)、華(hua)北(bei)(bei)、黃(huang)淮(huai)、西(xi)北(bei)(bei)大(da)(da)部(bu)地(di)(di)區中(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)(deng)(deng)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，各代(dai)累計發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)為(wei)(wei)(wei)2.6億畝(mu)(mu)次。蚜蟲(chong)在東北(bei)(bei)、華(hua)北(bei)(bei)、西(xi)北(bei)(bei)大(da)(da)部(bu)中(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)(deng)(deng)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)為(wei)(wei)(wei)7500萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)。葉螨(man)、雙斑螢(ying)葉甲在西(xi)北(bei)(bei)、華(hua)北(bei)(bei)等(deng)(deng)(deng)部(bu)分地(di)(di)區中(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)(deng)(deng)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，分別發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)3000萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)。土(tu)蝗在北(bei)(bei)方部(bu)分干旱(han)地(di)(di)區會有一(yi)定(ding)為(wei)(wei)(wei)害，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)1000萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)。
大斑(ban)病在(zai)東北大部(bu)(bu)、華北北部(bu)(bu)、西北東部(bu)(bu)，小斑(ban)病在(zai)黃(huang)淮(huai)南部(bu)(bu)、西南局部(bu)(bu)，褐斑(ban)病在(zai)黃(huang)淮(huai)海，彎孢葉斑(ban)病在(zai)黃(huang)淮(huai)及東北南部(bu)(bu)發生，程度(du)接近常年。
三、預報(bao)依據
（一）遷飛性害(hai)蟲蟲源范圍廣、部(bu)分地區基(ji)數(shu)高
草地貪(tan)夜蛾在全國21個(ge)省(sheng)份(fen)的(de)1246個(ge)縣發生，經(jing)全力防(fang)控，總體蟲(chong)口數量(liang)明(ming)顯降低，但由(you)于(yu)害(hai)蟲(chong)繁殖能力強、高齡(ling)幼蟲(chong)防(fang)治難度(du)大(da)，仍(reng)存在一(yi)定基數，且(qie)境外蟲(chong)源持續遷(qian)入，增(zeng)大(da)了種群(qun)數量(liang)。據監測(ce)，江(jiang)南和長江(jiang)中(zhong)下游性(xing)誘(you)出現蛾量(liang)高峰(feng)，3臺性(xing)誘(you)捕器累計(ji)誘(you)蛾量(liang)，江(jiang)西信豐6月(yue)21日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)－23日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)53頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，湖南江(jiang)華(hua)7月(yue)5日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)－7日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)561頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，湖北石首7月(yue)5日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)－11日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)72頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)。6月(yue)下旬以來，云(yun)南、廣(guang)西等(deng)地高空測(ce)報燈出現明(ming)顯蛾峰(feng)，云(yun)南江(jiang)城6月(yue)26日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)至7月(yue)13日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)累計(ji)誘(you)蛾2543頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，7月(yue)3日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)、7月(yue)5日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)分別誘(you)到311頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)、273頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，廣(guang)西宜州6月(yue)23日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)至7月(yue)13日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)累計(ji)誘(you)蛾822頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，6月(yue)26日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)、7月(yue)5日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)分別為132頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)和97頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，說(shuo)明(ming)境外蟲(chong)源仍(reng)持續遷(qian)入。
二代粘蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)在西南、西北(bei)、東北(bei)和華(hua)北(bei)等(deng)地發生面積大，西南等(deng)局部(bu)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)量較高。近期(qi)各地高空測報(bao)燈二代粘蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)成蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)量明顯偏高，廣西宜(yi)州常年不見蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)的(de)7月份誘到高數量種群，7月2日(ri)(ri)(ri)－15日(ri)(ri)(ri)7379頭(tou)，7月7日(ri)(ri)(ri)和10日(ri)(ri)(ri)達3000頭(tou)；灤縣7月17日(ri)(ri)(ri)－25日(ri)(ri)(ri)誘蛾2320頭(tou)，接近2014－2018年均值(zhi)；黑龍江雙城7月18日(ri)(ri)(ri)－24日(ri)(ri)(ri)272頭(tou)，是上年同(tong)期(qi)的(de)2倍；山東長島(dao)7月5日(ri)(ri)(ri)－23日(ri)(ri)(ri)933頭(tou)，為2014－2018年同(tong)期(qi)均值(zhi)的(de)3倍。
一(yi)代草(cao)地(di)螟(ming)在(zai)內(nei)蒙(meng)古興(xing)安(an)盟、呼(hu)和浩特、烏蘭察布(bu)等(deng)11個盟市40多個旗縣發(fa)生，農(nong)田(tian)(tian)周邊草(cao)場(chang)和林場(chang)殘(can)留基數(shu)高(gao)(gao)，近期(qi)呼(hu)倫貝(bei)爾、興(xing)安(an)盟部分縣出現一(yi)代成蟲(chong)高(gao)(gao)峰，烏蘭浩特7月23日高(gao)(gao)空(kong)測報燈誘(you)蛾(e)(e)達2萬多頭，雌(ci)蛾(e)(e)卵(luan)巢發(fa)育2－3級比例達90%。山西(xi)大同7月23日田(tian)(tian)間百步驚蛾(e)(e)150頭，河(he)北康保(bao)7月20日－21日燈下誘(you)蛾(e)(e)450頭。呼(hu)倫貝(bei)爾部分地(di)區始見(jian)二代幼蟲(chong)，農(nong)田(tian)(tian)幼蟲(chong)數(shu)量2－3頭/m2。
一代玉(yu)米螟平均百株蟲量(liang)，黑龍江為20頭(tou)，貴州35頭(tou)，云南(nan)30頭(tou)，江蘇12頭(tou)，其他省份不足(zu)10頭(tou)，基數(shu)低于常年(nian)。
（二(er)）玉米(mi)生育期和種植方式適宜(yi)病蟲發生
北方玉(yu)米連片種(zhong)(zhong)植(zhi)，后(hou)期(qi)(qi)生(sheng)長高大(da)、田(tian)間郁閉(bi)，有利于(yu)(yu)病(bing)蟲發(fa)生(sheng)，部分管理粗放、雜(za)草多(duo)的(de)(de)地塊尤其利于(yu)(yu)粘(zhan)蟲和草地螟集中產卵(luan)為害(hai)(hai)。南(nan)方玉(yu)米交錯種(zhong)(zhong)植(zhi)，夏秋季玉(yu)米生(sheng)育期(qi)(qi)不一(yi)，適于(yu)(yu)草地貪夜蛾(e)的(de)(de)取食為害(hai)(hai)，致使程(cheng)度逐代加(jia)重(zhong)。另(ling)外，目前(qian)黃淮海、西北等地玉(yu)米多(duo)處(chu)于(yu)(yu)喇(la)叭口期(qi)(qi)，處(chu)于(yu)(yu)草地貪夜蛾(e)為害(hai)(hai)的(de)(de)適宜生(sheng)育期(qi)(qi)。
（三）未來氣象(xiang)條件(jian)對大部地(di)區玉米病蟲(chong)發生有利
據國(guo)家氣(qi)候中心預(yu)測，東北(bei)(bei)南部、華(hua)北(bei)(bei)東部、黃(huang)淮東北(bei)(bei)部8月份降水偏(pian)多2－5成(cheng)，利(li)于粘(zhan)蟲(chong)、草(cao)地(di)螟和病(bing)害(hai)(hai)的(de)發生(sheng)(sheng)。華(hua)北(bei)(bei)、黃(huang)淮、江(jiang)淮大部8－9月份氣(qi)溫(wen)較(jiao)常年偏(pian)高1－2℃，降水正常或(huo)偏(pian)少(shao)，有(you)利(li)于棉鈴蟲(chong)、蚜蟲(chong)為害(hai)(hai)。7月底至8月上旬，西北(bei)(bei)太平洋(yang)上將有(you)1－2個(ge)熱帶氣(qi)旋發展并(bing)生(sheng)(sheng)成(cheng)，有(you)利(li)于南方銹病(bing)在黃(huang)淮海擴(kuo)散(san)流行(xing)。南方夏秋季氣(qi)候條件對草(cao)地(di)貪(tan)夜蛾發生(sheng)(sheng)無明顯不利(li)影(ying)響。
病蟲害(hai)測報處
