根據我省春季蔬菜種植情況、品種布局、病蟲害基數和氣候特點等綜合分析，預測春季(ji)蔬(shu)菜(cai)病(bing)蟲(chong)害中等偏(pian)重發(fa)生，發(fa)生特點(dian)：蟲(chong)害重于病(bing)害，黃曲條(tiao)跳甲、小菜(cai)蛾、瓜薊馬、霜(shuang)霉(mei)病(bing)等發(fa)生突(tu)出，主要發(fa)生病(bing)蟲(chong)有：黃曲條(tiao)跳甲、小菜(cai)蛾、瓜薊馬、瓜實(shi)蠅、斜紋夜蛾、甜(tian)菜(cai)夜蛾、煙粉(fen)虱、霜(shuang)霉(mei)病(bing)、枯萎病(bing)、軟(ruan)腐病(bing)、白粉(fen)病(bing)等。
一、發生(sheng)趨勢
預(yu)測春季黃曲(qu)條跳甲(jia)偏(pian)重(zhong)(zhong)、局部重(zhong)(zhong)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，小菜蛾(e)、瓜薊馬、斜紋(wen)夜蛾(e)和(he)霜霉病(bing)偏(pian)重(zhong)(zhong)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，瓜實蠅、美洲(zhou)斑(ban)潛蠅、白粉(fen)病(bing)中(zhong)等(deng)(deng)、局部偏(pian)重(zhong)(zhong)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，豆(dou)莢螟、甜菜夜蛾(e)、煙粉(fen)虱、軟腐病(bing)、炭疽病(bing)等(deng)(deng)中(zhong)等(deng)(deng)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)。此外，蚜蟲、炭疽病(bing)、灰(hui)霉病(bing)、病(bing)毒病(bing)等(deng)(deng)也有不同(tong)程度發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)。
二、主要依(yi)據
（一）病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)基數。據監(jian)測點近期調(diao)(diao)(diao)查(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)監(jian)測，受(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)去(qu)冬今春(chun)降雨偏少、氣溫偏高影響，當前我省蔬菜(cai)(cai)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)基數較高。黃曲條跳甲：百(bai)(bai)(bai)(bai)(bai)(bai)株(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)量(liang)(liang)(liang)60-200頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，高的超1000頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，株(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)受(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)害(hai)(hai)(hai)(hai)(hai)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)15%-30%，高的50%-60%。汕(shan)頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)站(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)調(diao)(diao)(diao)查(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)，百(bai)(bai)(bai)(bai)(bai)(bai)株(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)量(liang)(liang)(liang)平(ping)(ping)均88頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，高的120頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，受(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)害(hai)(hai)(hai)(hai)(hai)株(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)21.67%；深(shen)(shen)圳(zhen)(zhen)(zhen)站(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)調(diao)(diao)(diao)查(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)，百(bai)(bai)(bai)(bai)(bai)(bai)株(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)量(liang)(liang)(liang)28頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，高的136頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，受(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)害(hai)(hai)(hai)(hai)(hai)株(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)32%；惠(hui)(hui)陽(yang)(yang)(yang)站(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)調(diao)(diao)(diao)查(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)，百(bai)(bai)(bai)(bai)(bai)(bai)株(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)量(liang)(liang)(liang)107頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，株(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)受(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)害(hai)(hai)(hai)(hai)(hai)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)64%。小菜(cai)(cai)蛾：百(bai)(bai)(bai)(bai)(bai)(bai)株(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)幼(you)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)量(liang)(liang)(liang)一般30-100頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，高的達210頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)。汕(shan)頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)站(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)調(diao)(diao)(diao)查(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)芥蘭(lan)、白(bai)(bai)(bai)菜(cai)(cai)等(deng)(deng)(deng)(deng)，百(bai)(bai)(bai)(bai)(bai)(bai)株(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)幼(you)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)量(liang)(liang)(liang)113頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，受(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)害(hai)(hai)(hai)(hai)(hai)株(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)23.3%；深(shen)(shen)圳(zhen)(zhen)(zhen)站(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)調(diao)(diao)(diao)查(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)芥菜(cai)(cai)、甘藍、菜(cai)(cai)心，百(bai)(bai)(bai)(bai)(bai)(bai)株(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)幼(you)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)量(liang)(liang)(liang)18頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，株(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)受(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)害(hai)(hai)(hai)(hai)(hai)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)38.6%；惠(hui)(hui)陽(yang)(yang)(yang)站(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)調(diao)(diao)(diao)查(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)西蘭(lan)花，百(bai)(bai)(bai)(bai)(bai)(bai)株(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)幼(you)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)量(liang)(liang)(liang)210頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，株(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)受(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)害(hai)(hai)(hai)(hai)(hai)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)47%。瓜薊馬：百(bai)(bai)(bai)(bai)(bai)(bai)梢(shao)(shao)(shao)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)量(liang)(liang)(liang)一般1-26頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，受(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)害(hai)(hai)(hai)(hai)(hai)梢(shao)(shao)(shao)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)15%-40%。惠(hui)(hui)陽(yang)(yang)(yang)站(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)調(diao)(diao)(diao)查(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)茄子(zi)、辣椒，百(bai)(bai)(bai)(bai)(bai)(bai)梢(shao)(shao)(shao)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)量(liang)(liang)(liang)46頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，梢(shao)(shao)(shao)受(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)害(hai)(hai)(hai)(hai)(hai)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)15.6%；廉江(jiang)站(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)調(diao)(diao)(diao)查(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)茄子(zi)，百(bai)(bai)(bai)(bai)(bai)(bai)梢(shao)(shao)(shao)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)量(liang)(liang)(liang)百(bai)(bai)(bai)(bai)(bai)(bai)梢(shao)(shao)(shao)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)量(liang)(liang)(liang)899頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，梢(shao)(shao)(shao)受(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)害(hai)(hai)(hai)(hai)(hai)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)88%；深(shen)(shen)圳(zhen)(zhen)(zhen)站(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)調(diao)(diao)(diao)查(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)，百(bai)(bai)(bai)(bai)(bai)(bai)梢(shao)(shao)(shao)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)量(liang)(liang)(liang)18頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，梢(shao)(shao)(shao)受(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)害(hai)(hai)(hai)(hai)(hai)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)3.5%。斜紋夜蛾：深(shen)(shen)圳(zhen)(zhen)(zhen)和東(dong)莞近期單芯侯性誘蛾量(liang)(liang)(liang)分別為(wei)81.6頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)和106頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)。煙粉虱：深(shen)(shen)圳(zhen)(zhen)(zhen)站(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)調(diao)(diao)(diao)查(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)番茄、番薯等(deng)(deng)(deng)(deng)，百(bai)(bai)(bai)(bai)(bai)(bai)葉(xie)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)量(liang)(liang)(liang)6-83頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，受(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)害(hai)(hai)(hai)(hai)(hai)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)22.5%；惠(hui)(hui)陽(yang)(yang)(yang)站(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)調(diao)(diao)(diao)查(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)番茄、茄子(zi)，百(bai)(bai)(bai)(bai)(bai)(bai)葉(xie)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)量(liang)(liang)(liang)19.3頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，株(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)受(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)害(hai)(hai)(hai)(hai)(hai)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)11.3%。蚜蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)：惠(hui)(hui)陽(yang)(yang)(yang)站(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)調(diao)(diao)(diao)查(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)，豆(dou)(dou)(dou)(dou)角(jiao)百(bai)(bai)(bai)(bai)(bai)(bai)葉(xie)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)量(liang)(liang)(liang)14頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，小白(bai)(bai)(bai)菜(cai)(cai)百(bai)(bai)(bai)(bai)(bai)(bai)葉(xie)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)量(liang)(liang)(liang)263頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)；寶(bao)安站(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)調(diao)(diao)(diao)查(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)白(bai)(bai)(bai)菜(cai)(cai)，百(bai)(bai)(bai)(bai)(bai)(bai)葉(xie)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)量(liang)(liang)(liang)4頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)。豆(dou)(dou)(dou)(dou)莢(jia)螟：惠(hui)(hui)陽(yang)(yang)(yang)站(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)調(diao)(diao)(diao)查(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)荷(he)蘭(lan)豆(dou)(dou)(dou)(dou)、豆(dou)(dou)(dou)(dou)角(jiao)等(deng)(deng)(deng)(deng)，百(bai)(bai)(bai)(bai)(bai)(bai)株(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)量(liang)(liang)(liang)平(ping)(ping)均4.8頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，高的11頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，受(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)害(hai)(hai)(hai)(hai)(hai)株(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)7%。霜霉病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)：惠(hui)(hui)陽(yang)(yang)(yang)站(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)調(diao)(diao)(diao)查(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)南瓜，白(bai)(bai)(bai)菜(cai)(cai)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)葉(xie)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)24.9%，病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)指10.22，南瓜病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)葉(xie)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)36.8%，病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)指20.27；深(shen)(shen)圳(zhen)(zhen)(zhen)站(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)調(diao)(diao)(diao)查(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)油麥(mai)菜(cai)(cai)、芥藍等(deng)(deng)(deng)(deng)，病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)葉(xie)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)15%，病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)指4.89。炭疽病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)：惠(hui)(hui)陽(yang)(yang)(yang)站(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)調(diao)(diao)(diao)查(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)，生菜(cai)(cai)株(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)受(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)害(hai)(hai)(hai)(hai)(hai)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)9.3%，病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)指4.3，大白(bai)(bai)(bai)菜(cai)(cai)株(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)受(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)害(hai)(hai)(hai)(hai)(hai)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)6.67%，病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)指2.6；深(shen)(shen)圳(zhen)(zhen)(zhen)站(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)調(diao)(diao)(diao)查(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)四季豆(dou)(dou)(dou)(dou)等(deng)(deng)(deng)(deng)，受(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)害(hai)(hai)(hai)(hai)(hai)株(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)7%，病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)指1.67。白(bai)(bai)(bai)粉病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)：惠(hui)(hui)陽(yang)(yang)(yang)站(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)調(diao)(diao)(diao)查(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)荷(he)蘭(lan)豆(dou)(dou)(dou)(dou)，病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)葉(xie)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)平(ping)(ping)均48.5%，病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)情指數平(ping)(ping)均34.52。軟腐病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)：惠(hui)(hui)陽(yang)(yang)(yang)站(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)調(diao)(diao)(diao)查(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)生菜(cai)(cai)、大白(bai)(bai)(bai)菜(cai)(cai)等(deng)(deng)(deng)(deng)，病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)株(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)6.9%，病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)情指數3.79。
（二）氣(qi)(qi)候條件。據省氣(qi)(qi)候中心預測：今年3月，我省大(da)部地區雨量(liang)偏(pian)少2成左右，平均氣(qi)(qi)溫(wen)偏(pian)高0.3-0.5℃，4-5月，伴隨著(zhu)汛期到來，強對流天(tian)氣(qi)(qi)、時雨時晴天(tian)氣(qi)(qi)頻發，溫(wen)暖濕潤多雨天(tian)氣(qi)(qi)利(li)于黃曲條跳甲、小(xiao)菜蛾、斜紋夜蛾、霜霉病(bing)等多種病(bing)蟲害的發生(sheng)。
（三）寄主條件。當前蔬菜(cai)(cai)葉(xie)菜(cai)(cai)為(wei)主，瓜、豆、茄類蔬菜(cai)(cai)有一定種植(zhi)面積，蔬菜(cai)(cai)品種多，復種指數高(gao)，植(zhi)期參差不齊，田間(jian)多種蔬菜(cai)(cai)混栽、連作較普遍(bian)，病蟲(chong)橋梁田多，食料充(chong)足，利于病蟲(chong)的(de)輾轉為(wei)害。
各級農業植保部門要組織技術人員深入田間地頭，加強蔬菜病蟲調查監測，及時發布病蟲預報預警，分類指導菜農開展病蟲防治，大力推廣應用病蟲害綠色防控技術措施，對達到防治指標的田塊，要科學施用高效、低毒、低風險的對口農藥和生(sheng)物農藥(yao)，努力實現減(jian)輕病蟲為害損失、綠色防控和農藥(yao)使用減(jian)量等(deng)工作(zuo)目(mu)標。
