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安(an)徽省植保(bao)總站根據安(an)徽省小(xiao)麥(mai)、油(you)菜(cai)病(bing)蟲(chong)發(fa)生情(qing)(qing)況、去冬前(qian)病(bing)蟲(chong)殘(can)留(liu)基數(shu)、農作(zuo)物種植品種、當前(qian)作(zuo)物苗情(qing)(qing)和氣象部門的天(tian)氣預報分析(xi)認為，2007年安(an)徽省小(xiao)麥(mai)、油(you)菜(cai)病(bing)蟲(chong)害將偏重發(fa)生。預計(ji)，小(xiao)麥(mai)病(bing)蟲(chong)發(fa)生面(mian)積約(yue)4450萬畝次，油(you)菜(cai)病(bing)蟲(chong)發(fa)生面(mian)積1000萬畝次。

其(qi)(qi)中(zhong)，小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)麥(mai)(mai)(mai)(mai)(mai)紋枯病(bing)(bing)將在(zai)(zai)(zai)全(quan)省(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)中(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，淮(huai)北(bei)部(bu)(bu)分麥(mai)(mai)(mai)(mai)(mai)區(qu)偏(pian)重發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，全(quan)省(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面積(ji)約1000萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)。小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)麥(mai)(mai)(mai)(mai)(mai)赤霉病(bing)(bing)將在(zai)(zai)(zai)沿淮(huai)及淮(huai)河以南(nan)地區(qu)中(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，總面積(ji)約450萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)。小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)麥(mai)(mai)(mai)(mai)(mai)條銹病(bing)(bing)在(zai)(zai)(zai)全(quan)省(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面積(ji)近(jin)年(nian)(nian)有(you)所擴(kuo)大，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面積(ji)約300萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)，在(zai)(zai)(zai)安徽省(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)西北(bei)部(bu)(bu)中(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，在(zai)(zai)(zai)其(qi)(qi)它麥(mai)(mai)(mai)(mai)(mai)區(qu)偏(pian)輕(qing)(qing)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)。小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)麥(mai)(mai)(mai)(mai)(mai)葉銹病(bing)(bing)2006年(nian)(nian)在(zai)(zai)(zai)安徽省(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)淮(huai)北(bei)小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)麥(mai)(mai)(mai)(mai)(mai)主產區(qu)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)普遍，田間存(cun)在(zai)(zai)(zai)一定菌(jun)源，全(quan)省(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面積(ji)可能在(zai)(zai)(zai)500萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)，在(zai)(zai)(zai)淮(huai)北(bei)西部(bu)(bu)中(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，其(qi)(qi)它麥(mai)(mai)(mai)(mai)(mai)區(qu)偏(pian)輕(qing)(qing)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)。小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)麥(mai)(mai)(mai)(mai)(mai)白(bai)粉病(bing)(bing)全(quan)省(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)偏(pian)輕(qing)(qing)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，沿淮(huai)稻茬麥(mai)(mai)(mai)(mai)(mai)田中(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，預計發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面積(ji)400萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)。小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)麥(mai)(mai)(mai)(mai)(mai)穗期蚜蟲病(bing)(bing)全(quan)省(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)偏(pian)重發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，預計發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面積(ji)約1400萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)。小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)麥(mai)(mai)(mai)(mai)(mai)吸漿(jiang)蟲在(zai)(zai)(zai)沿淮(huai)淮(huai)北(bei)常發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)區(qu)中(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)范圍較(jiao)近(jin)年(nian)(nian)有(you)所擴(kuo)大，預計發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面積(ji)約300萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)。油(you)菜菌(jun)核病(bing)(bing)在(zai)(zai)(zai)全(quan)省(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)油(you)菜主產區(qu)偏(pian)重發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，預計發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面積(ji)約900萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)。

據氣象部門預報，安徽省小麥主產區冬、春氣溫偏高，降雨偏少，對蚜蟲越冬和春后繁殖有利，對病害流行有一定抑制作用。但小麥赤霉病屬典型的氣候型病害，其發生程度與小麥抽穗揚花期的雨日、雨量關系密切，沿淮及其以南麥區的種植戶要關注4月中下旬至5月上旬的天氣預報.