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1 晚稻前期(qi)發生概況

        受氣候、田間(jian)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)境(jing)等各(ge)方面因素影(ying)響(xiang)，晚稻(dao)(dao)(dao)前(qian)期(qi)(qi)(qi)主要病蟲(chong)總體(ti)發生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)程度同(tong)比持平，發生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面積約1100萬畝。發生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)情(qing)況與上(shang)年同(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)相比：三化(hua)螟(ming)發生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)期(qi)(qi)(qi)接近上(shang)年，稻(dao)(dao)(dao)飛虱(shi)、稻(dao)(dao)(dao)縱(zong)卷葉螟(ming)發生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)期(qi)(qi)(qi)及(ji)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)瘟病等流行性病害始見期(qi)(qi)(qi)偏早3~5天；三化(hua)螟(ming)在桂(gui)東北(bei)、桂(gui)中部(bu)分稻(dao)(dao)(dao)區發生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)偏重，其余大部(bu)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)區持平到偏輕；稻(dao)(dao)(dao)飛虱(shi)、稻(dao)(dao)(dao)縱(zong)卷葉螟(ming)、紋(wen)枯病、稻(dao)(dao)(dao)瘟病總體(ti)發生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)持平；桂(gui)東南部(bu)分稻(dao)(dao)(dao)區福壽(shou)螺(luo)發生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)偏重；水(shui)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)細菌(jun)性條斑病發生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)有所回升，主要在桂(gui)林市湘桂(gui)走(zou)廊及(ji)桂(gui)西(xi)北(bei)高寒山(shan)區發生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)；局部(bu)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)區的二化(hua)螟(ming)、臺灣稻(dao)(dao)(dao)螟(ming)、稻(dao)(dao)(dao)癭蚊(wen)、稻(dao)(dao)(dao)象甲、稻(dao)(dao)(dao)葉水(shui)蠅、赤枯病、水(shui)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)普(pu)通矮縮病等有不同(tong)程度的發生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)。

2 晚稻中后期主要病蟲鼠發生(sheng)趨勢

        總體發(fa)生(sheng)程度4（5）級，比(bi)上(shang)年(nian)略重。與上(shang)年(nian)相(xiang)比(bi)，三(san)化螟、稻縱卷葉螟、稻飛虱發(fa)生(sheng)持平，稻瘟病發(fa)生(sheng)偏重，紋枯(ku)病發(fa)生(sheng)略重。

2.1 三(san)化螟  第四代三(san)化螟發(fa)生(sheng)程度將(jiang)達2（4）級，與上年相比，大部稻(dao)區持平到略輕(qing)。重發(fa)區域(yu)在桂中(zhong)的(de)大部及桂東北、桂東南、桂西(xi)南及右(you)江河谷的(de)部分稻(dao)區。全區發(fa)生(sheng)面積(ji)350萬(wan)畝。防(fang)治時段：9月中(zhong)旬至10月上旬。

2.2 二(er)化(hua)螟  預(yu)計二(er)化(hua)螟在桂林市北部及右江河谷局部稻區發生程(cheng)度為2（4）級，發生面積70萬(wan)畝。防(fang)治時段：9月(yue)中旬(xun)至(zhi)下(xia)旬(xun)初。

2.3 稻飛虱  發(fa)生(sheng)程度(du)將達5級，同比(bi)持平，發(fa)生(sheng)面積1000萬畝。全區普(pu)遍發(fa)生(sheng)，重發(fa)區在桂(gui)(gui)(gui)東(dong)北(bei)、桂(gui)(gui)(gui)東(dong)南的(de)大部(bu)，桂(gui)(gui)(gui)中(zhong)及(ji)桂(gui)(gui)(gui)西南的(de)局部(bu)。桂(gui)(gui)(gui)東(dong)北(bei)東(dong)部(bu)及(ji)桂(gui)(gui)(gui)東(dong)南的(de)大部(bu)第(di)八代發(fa)生(sheng)將比(bi)常年偏重。

2.4 稻(dao)縱卷葉(xie)螟  發生(sheng)程度將(jiang)(jiang)達3（4）級(ji)，同比(bi)持(chi)平，發生(sheng)面積650萬畝。主要(yao)發生(sheng)區(qu)域(yu)在(zai)桂(gui)東北(bei)、桂(gui)中(zhong)、桂(gui)東南的(de)大部、桂(gui)西(xi)北(bei)、桂(gui)西(xi)南及沿海的(de)部分稻(dao)區(qu)。第(di)六代(dai)8月下(xia)(xia)旬(xun)末至9月中(zhong)旬(xun)；第(di)七(qi)代(dai)9月下(xia)(xia)旬(xun)至10月上(shang)旬(xun)。生(sheng)長嫩綠的(de)遲插田將(jiang)(jiang)受害嚴(yan)重。

2.5 稻紋枯病  發生程度將達4（5）級，同(tong)比略重(zhong)，發生面積850萬畝。全區大部普遍發生。重(zhong)發生區在桂東北、桂東南(nan)及沿海稻區。流行盛期(qi)：9月上旬末至10月下旬初(chu)。

2.6 稻瘟病  發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)程度將(jiang)達2（3）級，同比略(lve)重。桂東(dong)北(bei)(bei)、桂東(dong)南、桂西北(bei)(bei)等歷史性發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)區將(jiang)偏重發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，部分高感品(pin)種有大流行的可(ke)能。發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面積300萬畝。流行時段：葉瘟，持續至9月下旬初(chu)；穗頸瘟，9月中旬至10月上旬。

2.7 水稻細(xi)菌性(xing)條斑病  發生(sheng)程度將達(da)2（3）級，同(tong)比略重，發生(sheng)面積170萬畝。主(zhu)要(yao)發生(sheng)區域是(shi)桂(gui)東北大部及桂(gui)中、桂(gui)西(xi)北、桂(gui)東南(nan)及沿海的部分稻區。

2.8農區鼠害  發(fa)生(sheng)程度將達3級，發(fa)生(sheng)與上(shang)年持平，發(fa)生(sheng)面積700萬畝。全區普遍發(fa)生(sheng)。

        此外，臺灣稻螟、粘蟲、稻苞蟲、福壽(shou)螺(luo)、稻曲病(bing)、水(shui)稻普通矮(ai)縮(suo)病(bing)、稻白葉枯(ku)病(bing)等病(bing)蟲在(zai)局部稻區將有不同程度的發生(sheng)。

3 預測主要依據

3.1 病(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)源基數(shu)  三化螟  統計(ji)42個(ge)縣（市、區(qu)(qu)）晚(wan)(wan)稻(dao)(dao)前期(qi)(qi)(qi)三化螟發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)面積(ji)96.9萬畝(mu)(mu)，比上年(nian)減(jian)少(shao)(shao)16.9萬畝(mu)(mu)。畝(mu)(mu)殘蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)一(yi)(yi)般(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)50~770頭(tou)(tou)(tou)，高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)1000~4500頭(tou)(tou)(tou)，桂(gui)(gui)(gui)東北(bei)及(ji)桂(gui)(gui)(gui)西(xi)(xi)北(bei)少(shao)(shao)數(shu)田(tian)(tian)(tian)(tian)塊(kuai)則高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)達17800~18294頭(tou)(tou)(tou)，同比減(jian)少(shao)(shao)10.0%~42.0%。稻(dao)(dao)飛(fei)虱  統計(ji)42個(ge)縣（市、區(qu)(qu)）晚(wan)(wan)稻(dao)(dao)前期(qi)(qi)(qi)稻(dao)(dao)飛(fei)虱發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)面積(ji)118.3萬畝(mu)(mu)，接近上年(nian)，百(bai)(bai)叢(cong)(cong)殘蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)一(yi)(yi)般(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)40～380頭(tou)(tou)(tou)，高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)563～1850頭(tou)(tou)(tou)，少(shao)(shao)數(shu)高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)達3213~5250頭(tou)(tou)(tou)。各類型田(tian)(tian)(tian)(tian)平均(jun)殘蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)220.9頭(tou)(tou)(tou)，同比減(jian)13.9％。8月(yue)下旬田(tian)(tian)(tian)(tian)間蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)口密(mi)度開始上升，晚(wan)(wan)稻(dao)(dao)百(bai)(bai)叢(cong)(cong)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)一(yi)(yi)般(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)270~837頭(tou)(tou)(tou)，高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)1020~2651頭(tou)(tou)(tou)，以若蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)主(zhu)；沿海部(bu)分稻(dao)(dao)區(qu)(qu)卵(luan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)較(jiao)高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)，百(bai)(bai)叢(cong)(cong)卵(luan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)一(yi)(yi)般(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)600~3000粒(li)(li)(li)，高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)6870~10000粒(li)(li)(li)。稻(dao)(dao)縱卷(juan)葉螟  統計(ji)40個(ge)縣（市、區(qu)(qu)）晚(wan)(wan)稻(dao)(dao)前期(qi)(qi)(qi)稻(dao)(dao)縱卷(juan)葉螟發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)面積(ji)130.0萬畝(mu)(mu)，同比接近，百(bai)(bai)叢(cong)(cong)殘蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)9～45頭(tou)(tou)(tou)，高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)60~319頭(tou)(tou)(tou)。各類型田(tian)(tian)(tian)(tian)平均(jun)殘蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)12.7頭(tou)(tou)(tou)，同比增19.1%。8月(yue)底(di)各地調(diao)查(cha)，桂(gui)(gui)(gui)西(xi)(xi)南發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)較(jiao)重(zhong)，田(tian)(tian)(tian)(tian)間畝(mu)(mu)成蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)一(yi)(yi)般(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)115～619頭(tou)(tou)(tou)，多(duo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)1000～3111頭(tou)(tou)(tou)，桂(gui)(gui)(gui)西(xi)(xi)北(bei)少(shao)(shao)數(shu)中稻(dao)(dao)田(tian)(tian)(tian)(tian)上高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)達12000頭(tou)(tou)(tou)以上；百(bai)(bai)叢(cong)(cong)卵(luan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)一(yi)(yi)般(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)30～60粒(li)(li)(li)，多(duo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)110～225粒(li)(li)(li)，桂(gui)(gui)(gui)東北(bei)局(ju)(ju)部(bu)稻(dao)(dao)田(tian)(tian)(tian)(tian)卵(luan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)較(jiao)高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)，百(bai)(bai)叢(cong)(cong)一(yi)(yi)般(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)400~700粒(li)(li)(li)，高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)達966粒(li)(li)(li)；百(bai)(bai)叢(cong)(cong)幼蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)一(yi)(yi)般(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)30～98頭(tou)(tou)(tou)，高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)達160～350頭(tou)(tou)(tou)，桂(gui)(gui)(gui)西(xi)(xi)南局(ju)(ju)部(bu)稻(dao)(dao)田(tian)(tian)(tian)(tian)較(jiao)重(zhong)，百(bai)(bai)叢(cong)(cong)平均(jun)有(you)幼蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)433頭(tou)(tou)(tou)，高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)1300頭(tou)(tou)(tou)。稻(dao)(dao)紋枯(ku)病(bing)  統計(ji)36個(ge)縣（市、區(qu)(qu)）前期(qi)(qi)(qi)稻(dao)(dao)紋枯(ku)病(bing)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)面積(ji)52.6萬畝(mu)(mu)，接近上年(nian)。8月(yue)底(di)調(diao)查(cha)，桂(gui)(gui)(gui)東北(bei)、桂(gui)(gui)(gui)中、桂(gui)(gui)(gui)西(xi)(xi)南及(ji)沿海局(ju)(ju)部(bu)稻(dao)(dao)區(qu)(qu)早(zao)移(yi)植田(tian)(tian)(tian)(tian)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)較(jiao)重(zhong)，病(bing)叢(cong)(cong)率(lv)一(yi)(yi)般(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)11.3%~17.9%，高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)達20.0%~35.2%；病(bing)株率(lv)一(yi)(yi)般(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)2.5%~15.6%，高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)達28.0%～32.1%；病(bing)情指(zhi)數(shu)一(yi)(yi)般(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)0.8~5.9，高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)14.3~30.0。其余稻(dao)(dao)區(qu)(qu)病(bing)株率(lv)一(yi)(yi)般(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)0.4%~9.7%。稻(dao)(dao)瘟(wen)病(bing)  統計(ji)39個(ge)縣（市、區(qu)(qu)）前期(qi)(qi)(qi)稻(dao)(dao)瘟(wen)病(bing)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)面積(ji)37.7萬畝(mu)(mu)，接近上年(nian)。8月(yue)底(di)各地調(diao)查(cha)，病(bing)葉率(lv)一(yi)(yi)般(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)1.1%~9.8%，高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)10.4%~32.0%，桂(gui)(gui)(gui)西(xi)(xi)南少(shao)(shao)數(shu)田(tian)(tian)(tian)(tian)塊(kuai)達60.1%。；病(bing)指(zhi)一(yi)(yi)般(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)0.8~9.3，高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)15.0~32.5。水稻(dao)(dao)細菌性條斑病(bing)  統計(ji)29個(ge)縣（市、區(qu)(qu)）全區(qu)(qu)前期(qi)(qi)(qi)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)面積(ji)約18萬畝(mu)(mu)，同比多(duo)8萬畝(mu)(mu)。重(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)區(qu)(qu)在桂(gui)(gui)(gui)西(xi)(xi)北(bei)、桂(gui)(gui)(gui)西(xi)(xi)南的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)寒山區(qu)(qu)及(ji)桂(gui)(gui)(gui)林市的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)湘桂(gui)(gui)(gui)走廊的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)部(bu)分稻(dao)(dao)區(qu)(qu)。病(bing)葉率(lv)一(yi)(yi)般(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)10.2%~28.0%，高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)31.3%~45.0%；病(bing)指(zhi)一(yi)(yi)般(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)1.0~12.2，高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)21.0~34.5。鼠(shu)害(hai)  前期(qi)(qi)(qi)各監測點(dian)調(diao)查(cha)：捕鼠(shu)率(lv)一(yi)(yi)般(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)3.3％~6.7％，高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)12.5%~20.0%；為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)害(hai)率(lv)一(yi)(yi)般(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)0.2％~4.8％，高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)7.1％~25.0%。

3.2  農(nong)事操作、田(tian)間(jian)(jian)小生(sheng)境利于病蟲(chong)擴散蔓(man)(man)延(yan)  8月下旬末，晚稻(dao)插秧工作已結束，全(quan)區共插晚稻(dao)1434.52萬畝(mu)，其中拋秧面(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)(ji)為(wei)1217.51萬畝(mu)，占種植面(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)(ji)的(de)84.87％。優質稻(dao)1229.73萬畝(mu)，占種植面(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)(ji)85.72%。各地田(tian)間(jian)(jian)管理工作有序進行，禾(he)苗(miao)早(zao)生(sheng)快發(fa)，總(zong)體長勢良好。目前，全(quan)區一、二類禾(he)苗(miao)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)(ji)已達(da)1160.05萬畝(mu)，占種植面(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)(ji)的(de)80.8％。中稻(dao)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)(ji)較大，早(zao)、中稻(dao)蓄(xu)留再(zai)生(sheng)稻(dao)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)(ji)9.91萬畝(mu)，接近上年(nian)。田(tian)間(jian)(jian)復雜(za)苗(miao)情(qing)，利于病蟲(chong)害(hai)的(de)滋(zi)生(sheng)、繁殖(zhi)、擴展、蔓(man)(man)延(yan)。

3.3 氣候條件  8月平均降雨量198毫米，與常年同期比偏多8%，其中河池、柳州、貴港、崇左四市大部，桂林、梧州二市西南部和百色、玉林中北部略多到偏多，其余大部略少或偏少。據區氣象科技信息服務中心預測：9月平均氣溫正常；月降雨量：梧州、貴港、防城一線的東南略多，其余大部地區偏少2成左右，廣西北部出現干旱的可能性較大。中旬中及下旬中桂北可能出現寒露風。
 
來源：廣西省植保站