根(gen)據近期(qi)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)源基數(shu)調查，結合(he)氣象和(he)歷史(shi)資料等綜(zong)合(he)分析，預計(ji)2008年(nian)早季我省農作物重(zhong)大病(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)害總體(ti)為偏重(zhong)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)。水稻(dao)病(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)以(yi)“三蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)兩(liang)病(bing)(bing)”為主，稻(dao)飛(fei)虱(shi)(shi)、稻(dao)縱卷(juan)葉螟預計(ji)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)期(qi)比去年(nian)推(tui)遲，發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)程度較去年(nian)輕，螟蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)為偏重(zhong)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)；稻(dao)瘟病(bing)(bing)為中等發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，局部稻(dao)區(qu)的部分感(gan)病(bing)(bing)品種穗頸瘟仍將重(zhong)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)；稻(dao)紋(wen)枯病(bing)(bing)將偏重(zhong)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)。在(zai)經(jing)濟作物上，柑(gan)桔(jie)紅蜘蛛將偏重(zhong)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)；荔(li)枝(zhi)蝽(chun)象、蛀(zhu)蒂蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)偏重(zhong)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，龍眼角頰木(mu)虱(shi)(shi)中等發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)；茶假眼小(xiao)綠葉蟬(chan)偏重(zhong)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)；蔬菜上的斜紋(wen)夜蛾、小(xiao)菜蛾、黃(huang)曲條跳甲、霜霉病(bing)(bing)將偏重(zhong)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，菜青蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)、斑潛(qian)蠅、白粉虱(shi)(shi)、枯萎病(bing)(bing)等中等發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)。主要預測依據如下：
1、稻種(zhong)帶菌較為普遍。
據我(wo)省各縣（市、區(qu)(qu)）植保(bao)植檢站近(jin)期(qi)對(dui)各地今年(nian)(nian)水(shui)稻主栽(zai)品種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)（組合）的種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)進(jin)行(xing)抽樣檢測，大面積種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)植的品種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)均有不同程度的帶(dai)(dai)菌(jun)，其(qi)中稻瘟病帶(dai)(dai)菌(jun)率(lv)(lv)平均為3.3%，與去年(nian)(nian)相當(dang)，其(qi)它(ta)病菌(jun)帶(dai)(dai)菌(jun)率(lv)(lv)呈上(shang)升趨(qu)勢，如稻曲病、稻粒黑(hei)粉病等。由于大部分(fen)地區(qu)(qu)主栽(zai)品種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)植多年(nian)(nian)抗(kang)性(xing)衰(shuai)退等，個別品種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)帶(dai)(dai)菌(jun)率(lv)(lv)高，閩西北(bei)稻區(qu)(qu)品種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)帶(dai)(dai)菌(jun)率(lv)(lv)較去年(nian)(nian)偏高，在(zai)5月(yue)份分(fen)蘗期(qi)遇上(shang)高溫、多雨適宜情況下仍(reng)趨(qu)偏重發生。
2、冬后田(tian)間病蟲(chong)源(yuan)基數仍較(jiao)高，死亡率(lv)高。
由于1-2月我(wo)省(sheng)西、北部經歷了(le)低溫雨雪冰凍(dong)氣候，造成了(le)冬(dong)后殘(can)(can)蟲(chong)(chong)死亡率(lv)較(jiao)(jiao)高(gao)，但(dan)二(er)化(hua)螟(ming)抗逆性(xing)強，蟲(chong)(chong)源(yuan)基(ji)數仍(reng)較(jiao)(jiao)高(gao)，三(san)化(hua)螟(ming)蟲(chong)(chong)源(yuan)基(ji)數較(jiao)(jiao)去(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)低，大(da)螟(ming)蟲(chong)(chong)源(yuan)基(ji)數呈(cheng)上升(sheng)態勢。據各縣(xian)（市）植(zhi)(zhi)保(bao)站(zhan)近期的冬(dong)后蟲(chong)(chong)源(yuan)調查，二(er)化(hua)螟(ming)各類型(xing)田(tian)(tian)加權(quan)平均畝殘(can)(can)留蟲(chong)(chong)口(kou)(kou)7093頭(tou)(tou)，較(jiao)(jiao)去(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)增加40%，二(er)化(hua)螟(ming)平均死亡率(lv)9.87%，較(jiao)(jiao)去(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)增加兩個百(bai)分點；三(san)化(hua)螟(ming)各類型(xing)田(tian)(tian)加權(quan)平均畝殘(can)(can)留蟲(chong)(chong)口(kou)(kou)193頭(tou)(tou)，較(jiao)(jiao)去(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)減少6%，死亡率(lv)18%，較(jiao)(jiao)去(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)增多一(yi)倍(bei)；大(da)螟(ming)各類型(xing)田(tian)(tian)加權(quan)平均畝殘(can)(can)留蟲(chong)(chong)口(kou)(kou)193頭(tou)(tou)。寧化(hua)縣(xian)植(zhi)(zhi)保(bao)站(zhan)調查，二(er)化(hua)螟(ming)冬(dong)后殘(can)(can)蟲(chong)(chong)基(ji)數較(jiao)(jiao)常(chang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)多4.4%，比去(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)少22.0%。建甌市植(zhi)(zhi)保(bao)站(zhan)調查，螟(ming)蟲(chong)(chong)越冬(dong)死亡率(lv)達35.58%,較(jiao)(jiao)去(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)的2.56%及常(chang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)都(dou)高(gao),但(dan)田(tian)(tian)間的殘(can)(can)蟲(chong)(chong)量仍(reng)很高(gao)。
全省稻紋枯病冬后畝(mu)菌(jun)核殘留量為一般2-31萬(wan)粒，平均為12.8萬(wan)粒，較去年略增加。
由(you)于冬(dong)季(ji)低溫(wen)凍害影(ying)響，大部分稻(dao)區(qu)查不(bu)到稻(dao)飛虱、稻(dao)縱(zong)卷葉螟及(ji)稻(dao)癭蚊越(yue)冬(dong)蟲(chong)源(yuan)。僅在南(nan)靖縣(xian)調查到白(bai)背飛虱越(yue)冬(dong)蟲(chong)源(yuan)，平均畝(mu)殘蟲(chong)量350多頭，較去年減少(shao)66%。
隨著氣溫的回暖，柑(gan)桔、荔枝、龍眼(yan)(yan)等(deng)春(chun)梢開(kai)(kai)始(shi)萌芽，經濟作物(wu)上的一些(xie)病(bing)蟲(chong)也開(kai)(kai)始(shi)發生(sheng)危害。據連城縣(xian)、永(yong)定縣(xian)、永(yong)春(chun)縣(xian)和沙縣(xian)3月(yue)中旬調(diao)(diao)查，柑(gan)桔紅蜘蛛平(ping)(ping)均(jun)蟲(chong)葉(xie)率(lv)5.12%-48%，平(ping)(ping)均(jun)每葉(xie)蟲(chong)口(kou)密度有(you)(you)0.4-14.3頭(tou)(tou)。同安(an)(an)(an)(an)區(qu)3月(yue)19日(ri)調(diao)(diao)查，荔枝蝽(chun)百梢蟲(chong)量(liang)3.3頭(tou)(tou)。茶假(jia)眼(yan)(yan)小綠葉(xie)蟬，福安(an)(an)(an)(an)市(shi)茶科所3月(yue)4日(ri)調(diao)(diao)查每平(ping)(ping)方米有(you)(you)蟲(chong)4頭(tou)(tou)，永(yong)春(chun)縣(xian)3月(yue)10日(ri)調(diao)(diao)查百葉(xie)平(ping)(ping)均(jun)有(you)(you)成蟲(chong)0.66頭(tou)(tou)。小菜(cai)蛾(e)、菜(cai)青蟲(chong)、美(mei)洲(zhou)斑(ban)潛蠅(ying)、白粉虱、霜霉病(bing)等(deng)蔬菜(cai)主要病(bing)蟲(chong)普遍(bian)發生(sheng)，據同安(an)(an)(an)(an)區(qu)、永(yong)安(an)(an)(an)(an)市(shi)和永(yong)定縣(xian)3月(yue)11日(ri)調(diao)(diao)查，霜霉病(bing)病(bing)葉(xie)率(lv)為(wei)2.8%-11.4%；同安(an)(an)(an)(an)區(qu)與古田縣(xian)3月(yue)11日(ri)調(diao)(diao)查，小菜(cai)蛾(e)百株蟲(chong)量(liang)分(fen)別有(you)(you)637頭(tou)(tou)、288頭(tou)(tou)；同安(an)(an)(an)(an)區(qu)與永(yong)定縣(xian)3月(yue)11日(ri)調(diao)(diao)查，菜(cai)青蟲(chong)百株蟲(chong)量(liang)分(fen)別有(you)(you)437頭(tou)(tou)、460頭(tou)(tou)；永(yong)定縣(xian)3月(yue)10日(ri)調(diao)(diao)查，黃曲(qu)條(tiao)跳甲百株蟲(chong)量(liang)有(you)(you)230頭(tou)(tou)。
3、氣(qi)(qi)候條件對多數病(bing)蟲(chong)發生較為(wei)有(you)利。 據氣(qi)(qi)象部門預計春季(ji)氣(qi)(qi)溫略(lve)高，其中(zhong)3月(yue)(yue)略(lve)低，4月(yue)(yue)偏(pian)高，3-4月(yue)(yue)總降水偏(pian)少(shao)，有(you)利于螟蟲(chong)的化蛹存活(huo)。雨季(ji)將于4月(yue)(yue)底至(zhi)5月(yue)(yue)初偏(pian)早(zao)開始，于6月(yue)(yue)下旬(xun)中(zhong)后期由南向北先后結束，雨季(ji)期間(jian)降水略(lve)多，有(you)利于稻瘟病(bing)和紋枯病(bing)的發生流行。雨季(ji)期間(jian)強對流氣(qi)(qi)候將有(you)利于稻飛虱(shi)和稻縱卷(juan)葉螟的遷入為(wei)害。
4、早稻品種(zhong)布局及耕作制度有利病蟲的輾轉為(wei)害。
我省水稻(dao)栽培模式多樣(yang)，生育期不(bu)一，橋梁田增多，有利于水稻(dao)螟蟲、稻(dao)縱卷葉螟、稻(dao)飛虱等病蟲害(hai)的(de)輾轉(zhuan)為害(hai)。近年(nian)(nian)來，早稻(dao)播(bo)種(zhong)面積逐(zhu)年(nian)(nian)減少，優質稻(dao)比例(li)逐(zhu)年(nian)(nian)增加(jia)，其中不(bu)乏(fa)感病品種(zhong)，為病害(hai)的(de)流(liu)行和害(hai)蟲繁殖提(ti)供(gong)了更加(jia)有利的(de)生存環境。
鑒于以上分析，預(yu)計今年早季我省農作物(wu)主要病蟲(chong)仍有可能偏重發生(sheng)，為(wei)此，各地應加(jia)強病蟲(chong)監測，準確掌握病蟲(chong)發生(sheng)動態，及時發布病蟲(chong)情報，有效控制病蟲(chong)害的發生(sheng)危害。
來源：福建省植保站
