據全(quan)省各植保站調查，結合氣象(xiang)條件等綜合分析，預計(ji)全(quan)省大豆(dou)食心蟲總的為中等至中等偏重(zhong)發生。成蟲羽化盛期，北部(bu)地(di)區(qu)約在(zai)8月(yue)3－8日(ri)，中、南部(bu)地(di)區(qu)約在(zai)8月(yue)10日(ri)－15日(ri)。
預報依據：
一(yi)、蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)源基數較(jiao)高，發(fa)育(yu)質(zhi)量較(jiao)好。據各植保站冬前調查，大豆(dou)食心蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)食率全省平均(jun)為6.3%，較(jiao)上(shang)年7.63%下降(jiang)1.33個(ge)百(bai)分點(dian)(dian)，略(lve)高于常年，達(da)到防治指標（蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)食率5%）的縣（市(shi)）較(jiao)多，占(zhan)61.4%，高于上(shang)年3.7個(ge)百(bai)分點(dian)(dian)，蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)食率超(chao)過10%的縣（市(shi)）占(zhan)9.1%，比上(shang)年低21.5％。總體看，各地蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)食率差異不明(ming)顯，發(fa)生分布較(jiao)均(jun)衡，幼蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)脫莢期(qi)接(jie)近常年，幼蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)發(fa)育(yu)質(zhi)量較(jiao)好。
二(er)、冬后(hou)死亡(wang)率稍高(gao)。去年秋季(ji)大(da)豆食心蟲(chong)(chong)幼(you)蟲(chong)(chong)脫莢(jia)期降水較少，大(da)部(bu)分地區干旱(han)，部(bu)分縣（市(shi)）旱(han)象嚴重，不利于大(da)豆食心蟲(chong)(chong)幼(you)蟲(chong)(chong)入土及(ji)越冬，且(qie)春季(ji)我(wo)省雨(yu)水偏多，導致(zhi)幼(you)蟲(chong)(chong)死亡(wang)率較高(gao)。全省各地調查，冬后(hou)死亡(wang)率平均為(wei)56.5％，高(gao)于常年9.2個百分點。
三、越冬(dong)幼蟲上(shang)浮(fu)期(qi)(qi)(qi)條件(jian)適宜。6月末至7月上(shang)中(zhong)旬我省降水(shui)偏多，這段(duan)時(shi)間是越冬(dong)幼蟲向地表轉移及做新(xin)繭化(hua)蛹(yong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)，氣(qi)象條件(jian)對其幼蟲的轉移、化(hua)蛹(yong)等活(huo)動較(jiao)為有利。截止7月25日(ri)各(ge)地調(diao)查，總體看，上(shang)浮(fu)期(qi)(qi)(qi)正常略晚，上(shang)浮(fu)幼蟲數量高(gao)于常年(nian)。
綜(zong)上分析(xi)，若我省大(da)(da)(da)豆(dou)食(shi)心蟲(chong)(chong)羽化盛期（8月上中旬(xun)）無大(da)(da)(da)、暴雨天氣，預計大(da)(da)(da)豆(dou)食(shi)心蟲(chong)(chong)在大(da)(da)(da)部分地區將達到防治(zhi)指標，西、北(bei)部和中南部基數較高的(de)縣（市）將達到中等偏重發(fa)生。為(wei)此(ci)，各地要(yao)切實做好(hao)大(da)(da)(da)豆(dou)食(shi)心蟲(chong)(chong)田(tian)間成蟲(chong)(chong)量(liang)的(de)監測，特別去年蟲(chong)(chong)食(shi)率超過5%的(de)地區，要(yao)積極做好(hao)防治(zhi)準備工(gong)作(zuo)，對達到防治(zhi)指標的(de)田(tian)塊應適時組織防治(zhi)。
黑龍江省植檢植保站
