一、總趨勢
根據全省各地冬前農作物(wu)病(bing)(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)越(yue)冬基數及2009年(nian)天(tian)氣預報，結合(he)近年(nian)病(bing)(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)態勢、作物(wu)布局等(deng)因素，并組織有(you)關(guan)專家分(fen)析，預計2009年(nian)我(wo)省農作物(wu)主要病(bing)(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)呈偏(pian)重(zhong)(zhong)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)，程度重(zhong)(zhong)于常年(nian)，全省病(bing)(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)草鼠害(hai)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)面積(ji)1.6億畝次以上。一代草地螟、棉花苗蚜大發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)；麥(mai)(mai)田雜草、小(xiao)麥(mai)(mai)白粉病(bing)(bing)(bing)、小(xiao)麥(mai)(mai)穗蚜、地下害(hai)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)、蝗蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)、小(xiao)菜蛾(e)、馬鈴(ling)薯28星瓢蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)以及果樹(shu)白粉病(bing)(bing)(bing)、蘋果腐爛病(bing)(bing)(bing)、蔬菜病(bing)(bing)(bing)毒病(bing)(bing)(bing)等(deng)病(bing)(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)偏(pian)重(zhong)(zhong)、局部大發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)。
二、主要農作物病(bing)蟲發生趨勢
1、小(xiao)(xiao)麥(mai)(mai)(mai)病(bing)蟲(chong)害 小(xiao)(xiao)麥(mai)(mai)(mai)主要病(bing)蟲(chong)害發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)程(cheng)度(du)(du)重(zhong)(zhong)于常(chang)年。其中(zhong)小(xiao)(xiao)麥(mai)(mai)(mai)紅蜘蛛中(zhong)等發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)410萬(wan)畝，主要發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)在(zai)中(zhong)、南部旱垣、向(xiang)陽坡地及部分(fen)擴(kuo)澆麥(mai)(mai)(mai)田；小(xiao)(xiao)麥(mai)(mai)(mai)穗(sui)蚜偏(pian)(pian)重(zhong)(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)580萬(wan)畝；小(xiao)(xiao)麥(mai)(mai)(mai)吸漿(jiang)蟲(chong)總體發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)程(cheng)度(du)(du)輕于近年，但局部常(chang)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)區偏(pian)(pian)重(zhong)(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)80萬(wan)畝；麥(mai)(mai)(mai)潛(qian)葉(xie)蠅在(zai)運(yun)城、臨汾、晉城偏(pian)(pian)重(zhong)(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，程(cheng)度(du)(du)重(zhong)(zhong)于常(chang)年，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)120萬(wan)畝以上；地下害蟲(chong)偏(pian)(pian)重(zhong)(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，加(jia)重(zhong)(zhong)趨(qu)勢明顯，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)520萬(wan)畝；小(xiao)(xiao)麥(mai)(mai)(mai)白粉病(bing)偏(pian)(pian)重(zhong)(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)300萬(wan)畝；小(xiao)(xiao)麥(mai)(mai)(mai)紋枯病(bing)在(zai)南部高水肥(fei)麥(mai)(mai)(mai)田中(zhong)等發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)250萬(wan)畝；葉(xie)銹病(bing)中(zhong)等發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)150萬(wan)畝；小(xiao)(xiao)麥(mai)(mai)(mai)條(tiao)銹病(bing)在(zai)運(yun)城麥(mai)(mai)(mai)區有中(zhong)等發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)的(de)可能，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)100萬(wan)畝。
2、玉米病蟲害 一代玉米螟偏(pian)輕、局(ju)部中(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面積(ji)300萬(wan)(wan)畝；玉米絲黑穗病在晉中(zhong)(zhong)、大同、呂梁、長(chang)治等(deng)(deng)多年重(zhong)(zhong)茬種植玉米田中(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)(deng)至偏(pian)重(zhong)(zhong)流(liu)行(xing)，流(liu)行(xing)面積(ji)300萬(wan)(wan)畝；玉米大（小）斑病偏(pian)輕發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面積(ji)150萬(wan)(wan)畝；中(zhong)(zhong)部玉米集中(zhong)(zhong)產區局(ju)部玉米紅(hong)蜘(zhi)蛛中(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)(deng)至偏(pian)重(zhong)(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)。
3、暴發性病蟲害 東亞飛蝗(huang)（夏蝗(huang)）偏輕發生，發生面(mian)積(ji)(ji)35萬畝，需防治面(mian)積(ji)(ji)25萬畝次；土蝗(huang)在(zai)北部偏重、局部大(da)發生，發生面(mian)積(ji)(ji)500萬畝以上；一(yi)代草(cao)地螟大(da)發生，發生面(mian)積(ji)(ji)400萬畝左右(you)。
4、常(chang)發(fa)性病(bing)蟲(chong)害 地下害蟲(chong)偏重(zhong)、局部大發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，面(mian)積(ji)1500萬畝以上(shang)（包括麥田520萬畝）；粟灰螟在呂梁(liang)、晉中偏重(zhong)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)160萬畝；谷子白(bai)發(fa)病(bing)在晉城、長治、忻州(zhou)等(deng)地偏輕發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)；馬鈴薯28星瓢蟲(chong)偏重(zhong)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)200萬畝。
5、棉(mian)(mian)花病(bing)蟲害 棉(mian)(mian)花苗(miao)(miao)蚜大發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)100萬(wan)(wan)畝；棉(mian)(mian)枯黃(huang)萎病(bing)中(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)至偏重發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)60萬(wan)(wan)畝；棉(mian)(mian)花苗(miao)(miao)病(bing)、鈴病(bing)中(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)分(fen)別為48萬(wan)(wan)畝、50萬(wan)(wan)畝；棉(mian)(mian)葉螨、棉(mian)(mian)盲蝽中(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)分(fen)別為55萬(wan)(wan)畝、40萬(wan)(wan)畝；棉(mian)(mian)鈴蟲偏輕，個(ge)別棉(mian)(mian)田中(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)200萬(wan)(wan)畝次。
6、果(guo)(guo)樹(shu)(shu)病(bing)蟲(chong)害 蘋(pin)(pin)果(guo)(guo)樹(shu)(shu)腐爛病(bing)、白粉病(bing)偏重發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面積(ji)(ji)分(fen)別為260萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)、150萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)；蘋(pin)(pin)果(guo)(guo)褐斑(ban)病(bing)、果(guo)(guo)樹(shu)(shu)葉(xie)螨、果(guo)(guo)樹(shu)(shu)蚜蟲(chong)、果(guo)(guo)樹(shu)(shu)蚧殼蟲(chong)中(zhong)等至偏重發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面積(ji)(ji)分(fen)別為200萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)、270萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)、270萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)、150萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)；斑(ban)點落(luo)葉(xie)病(bing)中(zhong)等發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面積(ji)(ji)150萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)；桃小(xiao)食心(xin)蟲(chong)中(zhong)等發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，不套袋果(guo)(guo)園偏重發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面積(ji)(ji)230萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)；金紋(wen)細蛾中(zhong)等發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面積(ji)(ji)180萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)；蘋(pin)(pin)小(xiao)卷葉(xie)蛾偏輕至中(zhong)等發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面積(ji)(ji)130萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)。
7、蔬菜(cai)病(bing)蟲(chong)害 霜霉病(bing)、白粉(fen)病(bing)、葉霉病(bing)、番茄早疫病(bing)、辣椒疫病(bing)、芹菜(cai)斑(ban)枯病(bing)等(deng)高溫高濕病(bing)害，春(chun)季在(zai)中南部保(bao)(bao)護地(di)，夏季在(zai)露地(di)中等(deng)至偏(pian)(pian)重發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)；斑(ban)潛(qian)蠅(ying)、蚜蟲(chong)、粉(fen)虱等(deng)在(zai)保(bao)(bao)護地(di)中等(deng)、局(ju)部偏(pian)(pian)重發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)；保(bao)(bao)護地(di)根結(jie)線蟲(chong)病(bing)、野蛞蝓在(zai)局(ju)部發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)繼(ji)續(xu)加重，范圍(wei)仍有擴(kuo)大趨(qu)勢；小菜(cai)蛾、菜(cai)青(qing)蟲(chong)、蚜蟲(chong)、粉(fen)虱等(deng)在(zai)我省露地(di)蔬菜(cai)田，尤(you)其(qi)是在(zai)十字花科和葉菜(cai)類種(zhong)植(zhi)較集中的地(di)區偏(pian)(pian)重、局(ju)部大發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)；番茄病(bing)毒病(bing)偏(pian)(pian)重、局(ju)部大發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)。
三、預報依據
1、冬(dong)(dong)前病(bing)(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)基數 小麥病(bing)(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)冬(dong)(dong)前基數除吸漿(jiang)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)外均(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)高(gao)(gao)(gao)于(yu)(yu)去年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)和常(chang)(chang)(chang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)均(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)值(zhi)。麥紅蜘(zhi)蛛平(ping)均(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)田率(lv)(lv)(lv)42.6%，平(ping)均(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)尺(chi)行長有蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)11.37頭(tou)(tou)，最(zui)(zui)(zui)高(gao)(gao)(gao)90頭(tou)(tou)，尺(chi)行長蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)量比(bi)上年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)高(gao)(gao)(gao)19.8%，比(bi)常(chang)(chang)(chang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)高(gao)(gao)(gao)5%-8%。麥蚜(ya)平(ping)均(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)蚜(ya)株率(lv)(lv)(lv)3.72%，比(bi)上年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)高(gao)(gao)(gao)15%，比(bi)常(chang)(chang)(chang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)高(gao)(gao)(gao)3%-5%，蚜(ya)株率(lv)(lv)(lv)最(zui)(zui)(zui)高(gao)(gao)(gao)21%，平(ping)均(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)百莖(jing)蚜(ya)量4.6-12.5頭(tou)(tou)，最(zui)(zui)(zui)高(gao)(gao)(gao)32頭(tou)(tou)，略低(di)(di)于(yu)(yu)上年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)。小麥白粉病(bing)(bing)(bing)冬(dong)(dong)前發(fa)病(bing)(bing)(bing)程度(du)明顯重(zhong)于(yu)(yu)常(chang)(chang)(chang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)，平(ping)均(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)病(bing)(bing)(bing)田率(lv)(lv)(lv)40%，最(zui)(zui)(zui)高(gao)(gao)(gao)達80%,一般(ban)病(bing)(bing)(bing)葉(xie)(xie)(xie)(xie)率(lv)(lv)(lv)5%-8%，嚴(yan)重(zhong)田塊(kuai)12%以上， 病(bing)(bing)(bing)葉(xie)(xie)(xie)(xie)率(lv)(lv)(lv)較(jiao)上年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)高(gao)(gao)(gao)15%，較(jiao)常(chang)(chang)(chang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)高(gao)(gao)(gao)25%。小麥葉(xie)(xie)(xie)(xie)銹病(bing)(bing)(bing)冬(dong)(dong)前發(fa)病(bing)(bing)(bing)程度(du)也重(zhong)于(yu)(yu)常(chang)(chang)(chang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)，平(ping)均(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)病(bing)(bing)(bing)田率(lv)(lv)(lv)20%，病(bing)(bing)(bing)葉(xie)(xie)(xie)(xie)率(lv)(lv)(lv)3%-5%，病(bing)(bing)(bing)葉(xie)(xie)(xie)(xie)率(lv)(lv)(lv)較(jiao)上年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)高(gao)(gao)(gao)5%，較(jiao)常(chang)(chang)(chang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)高(gao)(gao)(gao)10%。小麥吸漿(jiang)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)全(quan)省(sheng)平(ping)均(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)每樣方有蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)0.68頭(tou)(tou)，低(di)(di)于(yu)(yu)上年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)和常(chang)(chang)(chang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)，其中永濟1-2頭(tou)(tou)，最(zui)(zui)(zui)高(gao)(gao)(gao)6頭(tou)(tou)，明顯低(di)(di)于(yu)(yu)近(jin)(jin)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)；堯都區0.2頭(tou)(tou)，最(zui)(zui)(zui)高(gao)(gao)(gao)1頭(tou)(tou)，低(di)(di)于(yu)(yu)近(jin)(jin)3年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)均(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)值(zhi)；洪洞2頭(tou)(tou)，最(zui)(zui)(zui)高(gao)(gao)(gao)13頭(tou)(tou)，也低(di)(di)于(yu)(yu)近(jin)(jin)3年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)均(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)值(zhi)。條銹病(bing)(bing)(bing)在我國西北越夏區普遍發(fa)生(sheng)，秋苗發(fa)病(bing)(bing)(bing)程度(du)為2001年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)后的(de)又一重(zhong)發(fa)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)份，病(bing)(bing)(bing)情明顯重(zhong)于(yu)(yu)2001年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)，我省(sheng)冬(dong)(dong)前未查見(jian)條銹病(bing)(bing)(bing)菌。
玉米(mi)病(bing)蟲(chong)中，全省(sheng)玉米(mi)螟百桿(gan)含蟲(chong)平均(jun)(jun)18.2頭(tou)，高(gao)(gao)于(yu)去年(nian)的(de)17.8頭(tou)，比近10年(nian)均(jun)(jun)值31.1頭(tou)低41.4%。其(qi)中運城(cheng)、太原(yuan)、大(da)同16.5-18.2頭(tou)；臨汾、晉(jin)中、陽(yang)泉(quan)較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)低為5.3-9.1頭(tou)；忻(xin)州、呂梁高(gao)(gao)達(da)30-41.9頭(tou)，全省(sheng)百桿(gan)含蟲(chong)最高(gao)(gao)達(da)88頭(tou)。2008年(nian)玉米(mi)絲黑穗病(bing)在大(da)同、陽(yang)泉(quan)、晉(jin)中等(deng)地發生較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)重，發病(bing)盛期病(bing)株率7%-8%，高(gao)(gao)于(yu)近兩年(nian)，田間殘留(liu)菌源量較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)高(gao)(gao)。玉米(mi)大(da)（小）斑病(bing)去年(nian)只(zhi)在忻(xin)州偏重流行，其(qi)它地區零星發生，田間菌源量較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)小。
東亞飛蝗(huang)(huang)秋殘(can)蝗(huang)(huang)面(mian)(mian)積21.8萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)，較去年(nian)(nian)減少(shao)7.7萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)，殘(can)蝗(huang)(huang)密度(du)0.5-1頭(tou)(tou)/平(ping)方米(mi)的面(mian)(mian)積8.1萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)，1.1-3頭(tou)(tou)/平(ping)方米(mi)的面(mian)(mian)積3.18萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)，3.1-6頭(tou)(tou)/平(ping)方米(mi)的面(mian)(mian)積1萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)，0.5頭(tou)(tou)/平(ping)方米(mi)以下的面(mian)(mian)積9.5萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)。土蝗(huang)(huang)全(quan)省殘(can)蝗(huang)(huang)面(mian)(mian)積310萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)，較去年(nian)(nian)增加65萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)。大同(tong)調查，平(ping)均殘(can)蝗(huang)(huang)密度(du)每(mei)平(ping)方米(mi)有卵1.3塊(kuai)，最高4.2塊(kuai)，比去年(nian)(nian)高62.5%，較近5年(nian)(nian)均值高22.6%。
草地(di)螟越(yue)冬(dong)蟲繭(jian)面(mian)積(ji)416萬畝，加權平均(jun)活(huo)繭(jian)密度52.3頭/平方(fang)米，最高(gao)達1099頭/平方(fang)米，越(yue)冬(dong)面(mian)積(ji)大，活(huo)繭(jian)密度高(gao)。
地下(xia)害蟲(chong)加重趨勢明顯。10月底，運城、臨汾等地麥田(tian)調查，一(yi)般地塊(kuai)有蟲(chong)1-3頭/平(ping)方米(mi)，較(jiao)嚴重地塊(kuai)7-8頭/平(ping)方米(mi)，死苗率一(yi)般3%-6%。聞喜縣(xian)嚴重田(tian)塊(kuai)死苗率達(da)7%-10%，蟲(chong)口密(mi)度最高達(da)20頭/平(ping)方米(mi)左右，個別田(tian)塊(kuai)缺(que)苗斷壟嚴重。
粟灰螟谷子百(bai)茬有蟲(chong)：大同、呂(lv)梁(liang)、晉中、長治分(fen)別(bie)為12.5頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)、31.1頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)、1.3頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)和3.3頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，最高46.5頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)。大同比(bi)去年(nian)減(jian)少(shao)16.7%，比(bi)近3 年(nian)均值減(jian)少(shao)15%；呂(lv)梁(liang)、晉中、長治分(fen)別(bie)比(bi)上年(nian)增加183.7%、4%、560%；分(fen)別(bie)比(bi)近3年(nian)均值增加562%、94%、168%，回升(sheng)態勢明顯。馬鈴薯(shu)28星瓢蟲(chong)冬前基數較(jiao)高。
冬前調查棉鈴蟲(chong)平均(jun)(jun)(jun)每平方米有蛹：運(yun)城、臨汾棉田一(yi)般0.01-0.07頭(tou)(tou)，除臨猗為0.9頭(tou)(tou)，高于去年(nian)(nian)的(de)0.24頭(tou)(tou)外，其他均(jun)(jun)(jun)略低(di)于去年(nian)(nian)和近(jin)(jin)(jin)3年(nian)(nian)均(jun)(jun)(jun)值；玉米田一(yi)般0.02-0.08頭(tou)(tou)，接近(jin)(jin)(jin)去年(nian)(nian)和近(jin)(jin)(jin)年(nian)(nian)；晉中(zhong)、晉城等(deng)地大豆、花(hua)生、菜田一(yi)般0.02-0.03頭(tou)(tou)，略低(di)于去年(nian)(nian)。花(hua)椒樹五寸枝條有棉蚜，運(yun)城一(yi)般18-50頭(tou)(tou)，平均(jun)(jun)(jun)43.7頭(tou)(tou)，大多低(di)于去年(nian)(nian)和近(jin)(jin)(jin)3年(nian)(nian)均(jun)(jun)(jun)值；臨汾291頭(tou)(tou)，高于近(jin)(jin)(jin)兩年(nian)(nian)均(jun)(jun)(jun)值。
11月底調(diao)查，蘋果(guo)(guo)樹腐爛病(bing)一(yi)般(ban)果(guo)(guo)園發(fa)病(bing)率15%-25%，嚴(yan)重(zhong)果(guo)(guo)園高(gao)達(da)60%以上，平均(jun)百(bai)株有病(bing)斑41個，與去(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)同期基本相同。蘋果(guo)(guo)白粉病(bing)今年(nian)(nian)(nian)在南(nan)部果(guo)(guo)區嚴(yan)重(zhong)發(fa)生，一(yi)般(ban)果(guo)(guo)園嫩尖發(fa)病(bing)率1%-3%，病(bing)葉(xie)率為11%-25%，嚴(yan)重(zhong)的達(da)30%-60%，比去(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)高(gao)5%-10%。果(guo)(guo)樹落葉(xie)前調(diao)查，斑點落葉(xie)病(bing)一(yi)般(ban)果(guo)(guo)園病(bing)葉(xie)率11.5%，最(zui)高(gao)20%，略低于(yu)去(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)同期水平，比歷年(nian)(nian)(nian)均(jun)值低3%；蘋果(guo)(guo)褐(he)斑病(bing)平均(jun)病(bing)葉(xie)率25%，最(zui)高(gao)60%，與去(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)基本相同，略高(gao)于(yu)近年(nian)(nian)(nian)均(jun)值。
果(guo)(guo)實(shi)采(cai)收前調查(cha)，桃小食(shi)心蟲平(ping)均(jun)(jun)蛀果(guo)(guo)率(lv)5.8%，比去(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)高(gao)2.7%，最(zui)(zui)(zui)高(gao)為10%，與(yu)去(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)相同。11月底調查(cha)，山楂葉(xie)螨每(mei)100c平(ping)方米有越冬螨14.59頭(tou)(tou)(tou)，比去(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)同期高(gao)2.1頭(tou)(tou)(tou)，最(zui)(zui)(zui)高(gao)30余頭(tou)(tou)(tou)，與(yu)2006年(nian)(nian)(nian)基本持平(ping)。各果(guo)(guo)區果(guo)(guo)樹落葉(xie)前調查(cha)，金紋細(xi)蛾(e)平(ping)均(jun)(jun)百葉(xie)有蟲斑28個，比去(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)高(gao)16個，為近年(nian)(nian)(nian)來最(zui)(zui)(zui)高(gao)值，平(ping)均(jun)(jun)百葉(xie)蟲量23.8頭(tou)(tou)(tou)，最(zui)(zui)(zui)高(gao)44頭(tou)(tou)(tou)。2008年(nian)(nian)(nian)果(guo)(guo)樹蚜蟲普遍發生(sheng)，一般(ban)平(ping)均(jun)(jun)百葉(xie)有蚜2000-4000頭(tou)(tou)(tou)，個別果(guo)(guo)園(yuan)高(gao)達10000-30000頭(tou)(tou)(tou)，略低(di)(di)于去(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)。冬前調查(cha)蚧(jie)殼蟲平(ping)均(jun)(jun)每(mei)5寸(cun)枝條有蟲3.73頭(tou)(tou)(tou)，比去(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)低(di)(di)1.27頭(tou)(tou)(tou)，與(yu)歷年(nian)(nian)(nian)均(jun)(jun)值基本相同，最(zui)(zui)(zui)高(gao)30頭(tou)(tou)(tou)，與(yu)去(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)相同。采(cai)收前調查(cha)，蘋小卷葉(xie)蛾(e)一般(ban)果(guo)(guo)園(yuan)頂(ding)梢卷葉(xie)率(lv)3%-5%，比去(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)低(di)(di)5%-10%，低(di)(di)于近年(nian)(nian)(nian)均(jun)(jun)值，平(ping)均(jun)(jun)百葉(xie)有幼(you)蟲1.3頭(tou)(tou)(tou)，最(zui)(zui)(zui)高(gao)4頭(tou)(tou)(tou)。
11月中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)下(xia)旬，大(da)同(tong)、太(tai)原、晉(jin)(jin)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)、長(chang)治、運(yun)城(cheng)在(zai)(zai)保護(hu)地菜(cai)田調查(cha)，油菜(cai)田小菜(cai)蛾蟲(chong)株(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)率(lv)10.8%-52%，百(bai)株(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)蟲(chong)量(liang)46-75頭(tou)，除(chu)運(yun)城(cheng)明顯高于(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)去年(nian)(nian)和(he)近3年(nian)(nian)均(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)值(zhi)外，其它市地均(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)低于(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)近3年(nian)(nian)均(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)值(zhi)；鹽(yan)湖區調查(cha)，甜菜(cai)夜蛾有蟲(chong)棚(peng)率(lv)66%，百(bai)株(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)蟲(chong)量(liang)4-6頭(tou)，高于(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)近4年(nian)(nian)同(tong)期(qi)(qi)均(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)值(zhi)；美洲斑潛蠅(ying)在(zai)(zai)大(da)同(tong)、太(tai)原、晉(jin)(jin)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)、運(yun)城(cheng)有蟲(chong)棚(peng)率(lv)分(fen)(fen)別(bie)(bie)為40%、52%、40%、85%，百(bai)株(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)蟲(chong)量(liang)分(fen)(fen)別(bie)(bie)為500頭(tou)、4665頭(tou)、200頭(tou)、170頭(tou)，運(yun)城(cheng)、大(da)同(tong)低于(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)近年(nian)(nian)同(tong)期(qi)(qi)均(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)值(zhi)，太(tai)原、晉(jin)(jin)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)高于(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)近年(nian)(nian)同(tong)期(qi)(qi)均(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)值(zhi)；煙粉虱在(zai)(zai)大(da)同(tong)、太(tai)原、運(yun)城(cheng)有蟲(chong)棚(peng)率(lv)分(fen)(fen)別(bie)(bie)為75%、50%、100%，百(bai)株(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)蟲(chong)量(liang)分(fen)(fen)別(bie)(bie)為4500頭(tou)、915頭(tou)、4000-9000頭(tou)，大(da)同(tong)、運(yun)城(cheng)基數高于(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)近年(nian)(nian)均(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)值(zhi)；黃(huang)瓜霜霉(mei)(mei)病(bing)在(zai)(zai)大(da)同(tong)、運(yun)城(cheng)有病(bing)棚(peng)率(lv)57%-60%、病(bing)株(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)率(lv)35%-41%，接近或(huo)略高于(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)近年(nian)(nian)均(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)值(zhi)，晉(jin)(jin)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)、太(tai)原病(bing)棚(peng)率(lv)8%-10%、病(bing)株(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)率(lv)3%-7%，低于(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)近年(nian)(nian)均(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)值(zhi)；番茄晚(wan)疫病(bing)、葉霉(mei)(mei)病(bing)、灰霉(mei)(mei)病(bing)及病(bing)毒病(bing)目前在(zai)(zai)大(da)同(tong)、運(yun)城(cheng)發生較重，病(bing)棚(peng)率(lv)分(fen)(fen)別(bie)(bie)為50%-72%、60%-90%、30%-80%和(he)20%-98%，病(bing)株(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)率(lv)分(fen)(fen)別(bie)(bie)為25%-30%、48%-65%、15%-24%和(he)2%-18%。
2、氣(qi)(qi)(qi)象條件(jian) 據山西(xi)省(sheng)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)象臺2009年(nian)(nian)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)候趨勢預(yu)測，全省(sheng)年(nian)(nian)降(jiang)水(shui)量(liang)南(nan)(nan)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)分(fen)地(di)(di)區(qu)略(lve)(lve)偏(pian)少(shao)，其余大(da)(da)(da)(da)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)分(fen)地(di)(di)區(qu)略(lve)(lve)偏(pian)多，年(nian)(nian)平均(jun)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)溫(wen)較(jiao)常年(nian)(nian)偏(pian)高。冬季(ji)(ji)（1-2月(yue)）降(jiang)水(shui)較(jiao)常年(nian)(nian)偏(pian)多，氣(qi)(qi)(qi)溫(wen)略(lve)(lve)偏(pian)高，對(dui)大(da)(da)(da)(da)多數病蟲越冬存活有利。春(chun)季(ji)(ji)（3-5月(yue)）降(jiang)水(shui)，北(bei)、中部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)大(da)(da)(da)(da)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)分(fen)地(di)(di)區(qu)較(jiao)常年(nian)(nian)偏(pian)多1-2成(cheng)，南(nan)(nan)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)大(da)(da)(da)(da)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)分(fen)地(di)(di)區(qu)較(jiao)常年(nian)(nian)偏(pian)少(shao)1-3成(cheng)。春(chun)季(ji)(ji)平均(jun)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)溫(wen)全省(sheng)大(da)(da)(da)(da)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)分(fen)地(di)(di)區(qu)略(lve)(lve)偏(pian)高。春(chun)季(ji)(ji)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)候對(dui)喜(xi)旱(han)性(xing)的(de)小(xiao)麥(mai)蚜(ya)蟲、小(xiao)麥(mai)紅蜘蛛、棉花苗蚜(ya)、小(xiao)菜(cai)蛾(e)等(deng)在南(nan)(nan)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)發生有利。夏季(ji)(ji)（6-8月(yue)）降(jiang)水(shui)，北(bei)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)大(da)(da)(da)(da)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)及南(nan)(nan)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)局部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)地(di)(di)區(qu)略(lve)(lve)偏(pian)多，其余地(di)(di)區(qu)略(lve)(lve)偏(pian)少(shao)。平均(jun)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)溫(wen)南(nan)(nan)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)大(da)(da)(da)(da)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)地(di)(di)區(qu)略(lve)(lve)偏(pian)高到偏(pian)高，北(bei)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)略(lve)(lve)偏(pian)低。南(nan)(nan)、北(bei)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)降(jiang)水(shui)偏(pian)多將有利于(yu)草地(di)(di)螟等(deng)遷飛性(xing)暴(bao)發害(hai)蟲，喜(xi)高溫(wen)高濕(shi)的(de)蔬菜(cai)、果樹(shu)病害(hai)的(de)發生；中部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)降(jiang)雨偏(pian)少(shao)將有利于(yu)蜘蛛類、蚜(ya)蟲、小(xiao)菜(cai)蛾(e)等(deng)喜(xi)旱(han)性(xing)蟲害(hai)的(de)發生。
3、生態條件 今年全(quan)省小(xiao)麥(mai)適(shi)期播種(zhong)面(mian)積(ji)比例大(da)(da)、墑情適(shi)宜， 11月底調查(cha)，全(quan)省小(xiao)麥(mai)苗情總體情況良好，一(yi)(yi)、二、三(san)類苗比例為4：4：2，對(dui)小(xiao)麥(mai)病(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)越冬無不利(li)影(ying)響；隨著優(you)質小(xiao)麥(mai)面(mian)積(ji)擴大(da)(da)，小(xiao)麥(mai)主栽品(pin)種(zhong)易(yi)感白粉(fen)(fen)病(bing)、紋枯病(bing)和銹(xiu)病(bing)，并對(dui)麥(mai)蚜危(wei)害(hai)有利(li)。抗(kang)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)棉種(zhong)植面(mian)積(ji)近(jin)年一(yi)(yi)直占棉花種(zhong)植面(mian)積(ji)的(de)85%以(yi)上，使(shi)(shi)二、三(san)代(dai)棉鈴(ling)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)發(fa)生受到抑(yi)制，但(dan)由于抗(kang)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)棉品(pin)種(zhong)的(de)雜亂問題(ti)，將(jiang)形成棉鈴(ling)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)在部分抗(kang)性差的(de)棉田集中(zhong)危(wei)害(hai)；同時棉田用藥量(liang)減少，將(jiang)使(shi)(shi)棉盲蝽、粉(fen)(fen)虱、甜菜夜蛾等危(wei)害(hai)加(jia)重。保護地大(da)(da)面(mian)積(ji)種(zhong)植，作物種(zhong)類的(de)增(zeng)多為病(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)的(de)周年發(fa)生及越冬提(ti)供了有利(li)條件。秸稈還田、免耕技術以(yi)及機械化(hua)聯合收割的(de)大(da)(da)面(mian)積(ji)推廣，對(dui)地下(xia)害(hai)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)、種(zhong)傳(chuan)病(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)草害(hai)發(fa)生有利(li)。近(jin)期果(guo)品(pin)價格大(da)(da)幅(fu)下(xia)跌，在一(yi)(yi)定程(cheng)度上將(jiang)影(ying)響果(guo)農對(dui)果(guo)園的(de)精心管理，易(yi)形成管理粗放，導(dao)致果(guo)樹病(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)的(de)加(jia)重危(wei)害(hai)。
來源：山(shan)西(xi)省農(nong)作物病蟲測(ce)報站
