7月14－15日(ri)，全國農技中(zhong)心在安(an)徽省蕪湖市召(zhao)開(kai)了水(shui)稻(dao)和(he)(he)棉(mian)花中(zhong)后期(qi)(qi)重大病(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)害(hai)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)趨勢會(hui)(hui)商會(hui)(hui)，來自水(shui)稻(dao)主(zhu)產區(qu)19個省（市、區(qu)）的測報技術(shu)人員(yuan)和(he)(he)有關專(zhuan)家參加了會(hui)(hui)議(yi)。會(hui)(hui)議(yi)總(zong)結了早稻(dao)及單季稻(dao)前(qian)中(zhong)期(qi)(qi)病(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)情況，分析會(hui)(hui)商了中(zhong)晚稻(dao)主(zhu)要病(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)趨勢。根據水(shui)稻(dao)生(sheng)(sheng)育期(qi)(qi)、栽培條(tiao)件、當前(qian)病(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)基數和(he)(he)氣(qi)象因子綜合分析，預計中(zhong)晚稻(dao)病(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)害(hai)總(zong)體呈(cheng)偏(pian)重發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)態勢，發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面積9.23億畝次，與去年基本(ben)持平(ping)。其中(zhong)，蟲(chong)害(hai)以(yi)遷(qian)飛(fei)性、鉆蛀(zhu)性害(hai)蟲(chong)為主(zhu)，發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面積6.74億畝次，“兩遷(qian)”害(hai)蟲(chong)為偏(pian)重至大發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)；病(bing)(bing)害(hai)以(yi)稻(dao)瘟病(bing)(bing)、紋枯病(bing)(bing)為主(zhu)，總(zong)體中(zhong)等至偏(pian)重流行，發(fa)病(bing)(bing)面積2.49億畝。
一、早稻(dao)(dao)和單季(ji)中(zhong)(zhong)稻(dao)(dao)中(zhong)(zhong)前期(qi)發生概(gai)況
目前，我國華南(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)和(he)(he)(he)江南(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)早稻大(da)(da)部(bu)進入成(cheng)熟收割階段，西(xi)南(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)、江南(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)、長江流(liu)(liu)域(yu)、東(dong)北(bei)大(da)(da)部(bu)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)稻處于(yu)(yu)分蘗末期(qi)(qi)至孕穗期(qi)(qi)。早稻及單季稻中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)前期(qi)(qi), 以“兩(liang)遷(qian)(qian)(qian)”害蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)為主(zhu)(zhu)的水稻病(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)在(zai)(zai)南(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)方大(da)(da)部(bu)稻區(qu)偏重(zhong)(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，除(chu)西(xi)南(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)稻區(qu)重(zhong)(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)外(wai)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)程度(du)(du)總體輕(qing)于(yu)(yu)去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)，全(quan)國主(zhu)(zhu)要(yao)病(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)4.82億(yi)(yi)畝(mu)次(ci)，其(qi)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)害發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)3.28億(yi)(yi)畝(mu)次(ci)，比(bi)去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)減(jian)(jian)少(shao)8.2%，病(bing)(bing)害發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)1.54億(yi)(yi)畝(mu),略(lve)高于(yu)(yu)去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)。今(jin)年(nian)(nian)主(zhu)(zhu)要(yao)病(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)的發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)特(te)點：一(yi)是(shi)“兩(liang)遷(qian)(qian)(qian)”害蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)遷(qian)(qian)(qian)入時間(jian)早、發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)程度(du)(du)重(zhong)(zhong)、發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)大(da)(da)。其(qi)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)，稻飛虱(shi)(shi)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)期(qi)(qi)比(bi)常年(nian)(nian)提前3－5天(tian)，5月中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)下旬(xun)后(hou)集中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)遷(qian)(qian)(qian)入明顯。全(quan)國累(lei)計(ji)(ji)(ji)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)1.27億(yi)(yi)畝(mu)次(ci)，比(bi)去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)同(tong)期(qi)(qi)增(zeng)加16.5%。早稻和(he)(he)(he)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)稻中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)前期(qi)(qi)，西(xi)南(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)大(da)(da)部(bu)大(da)(da)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，云南(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)縣數和(he)(he)(he)田(tian)間(jian)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)量均創歷史(shi)新高，華南(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)和(he)(he)(he)江南(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)南(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)部(bu)偏重(zhong)(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)。稻縱卷葉(xie)(xie)螟(ming)遷(qian)(qian)(qian)入高峰期(qi)(qi)接(jie)近(jin)常年(nian)(nian)，華南(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)、江南(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)南(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)部(bu)和(he)(he)(he)西(xi)南(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)東(dong)部(bu)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)至偏重(zhong)(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，輕(qing)于(yu)(yu)去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)同(tong)期(qi)(qi)，但近(jin)期(qi)(qi)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)卵量上升迅(xun)速。全(quan)國發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)8492萬畝(mu)次(ci)，比(bi)去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)同(tong)期(qi)(qi)減(jian)(jian)少(shao)32.9%。二是(shi)鉆蛀性害蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)田(tian)間(jian)基數高，江南(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)、西(xi)南(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)北(bei)部(bu)和(he)(he)(he)長江中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)游發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)較重(zhong)(zhong)。江南(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)、西(xi)南(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)北(bei)部(bu)和(he)(he)(he)長江中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)游二化螟(ming)冬后(hou)活蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)數達大(da)(da)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)標準，經(jing)防治后(hou)仍存一(yi)定殘留(liu)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)量，全(quan)國累(lei)計(ji)(ji)(ji)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)1.08億(yi)(yi)畝(mu)次(ci)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)程度(du)(du)輕(qing)于(yu)(yu)去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian);三(san)化螟(ming)在(zai)(zai)大(da)(da)部(bu)稻區(qu)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)較輕(qing)，累(lei)計(ji)(ji)(ji)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)798萬畝(mu)次(ci)。三(san)是(shi)病(bing)(bing)害的發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)流(liu)(liu)行(xing)(xing)(xing)略(lve)重(zhong)(zhong)于(yu)(yu)去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)。紋(wen)(wen)枯病(bing)(bing)在(zai)(zai)大(da)(da)部(bu)稻區(qu)偏重(zhong)(zhong)流(liu)(liu)行(xing)(xing)(xing)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)病(bing)(bing)面(mian)積(ji)1.05億(yi)(yi)畝(mu)；稻瘟病(bing)(bing)在(zai)(zai)大(da)(da)部(bu)偏輕(qing)至中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)流(liu)(liu)行(xing)(xing)(xing)，部(bu)分老病(bing)(bing)區(qu)感病(bing)(bing)品種上偏重(zhong)(zhong)流(liu)(liu)行(xing)(xing)(xing)，累(lei)計(ji)(ji)(ji)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)病(bing)(bing)1923萬畝(mu)次(ci)；長江下游及北(bei)方部(bu)分稻區(qu)條紋(wen)(wen)葉(xie)(xie)枯病(bing)(bing)傳毒(du)介體灰飛虱(shi)(shi)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)量大(da)(da)、帶毒(du)率高，累(lei)計(ji)(ji)(ji)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)3053萬畝(mu)次(ci)，經(jing)防治后(hou)田(tian)間(jian)危害得到(dao)有(you)效控(kong)制。
二、趨勢預報
（一）水稻蟲害
預計稻飛虱將在(zai)西(xi)南(nan)和(he)(he)(he)江(jiang)(jiang)南(nan)稻區大發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，長江(jiang)(jiang)中(zhong)下游(you)和(he)(he)(he)江(jiang)(jiang)淮大部(bu)(bu)及華南(nan)部(bu)(bu)分(fen)稻區偏重(zhong)(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)、局部(bu)(bu)大發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面積2.83億畝(mu)(mu)次(ci)；稻縱卷葉螟(ming)在(zai)長江(jiang)(jiang)中(zhong)下游(you)及江(jiang)(jiang)淮稻區、江(jiang)(jiang)南(nan)和(he)(he)(he)華南(nan)大部(bu)(bu)、西(xi)南(nan)東(dong)部(bu)(bu)偏重(zhong)(zhong)至(zhi)大發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面積2.18億畝(mu)(mu)次(ci)；二化螟(ming)在(zai)江(jiang)(jiang)南(nan)、長江(jiang)(jiang)中(zhong)游(you)、西(xi)南(nan)和(he)(he)(he)東(dong)北部(bu)(bu)分(fen)稻區偏重(zhong)(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，其(qi)他稻區中(zhong)等發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面積1.48億畝(mu)(mu)次(ci)；三化螟(ming)在(zai)華南(nan)和(he)(he)(he)西(xi)南(nan)部(bu)(bu)分(fen)稻區中(zhong)等發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，其(qi)他稻區偏輕發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面積2500萬畝(mu)(mu)次(ci)。
（二）水稻病害
稻瘟(wen)病(bing)(bing)(bing)在西南和(he)東(dong)北(bei)(bei)(bei)大部及(ji)江(jiang)南、華南局(ju)部偏重(zhong)流(liu)(liu)(liu)行，發(fa)病(bing)(bing)(bing)面積(ji)5600萬(wan)畝次；紋(wen)枯病(bing)(bing)(bing)在全國(guo)大部稻區(qu)(qu)(qu)偏重(zhong)流(liu)(liu)(liu)行，發(fa)病(bing)(bing)(bing)面積(ji)1.81億畝；水(shui)稻條紋(wen)葉(xie)枯病(bing)(bing)(bing)在長(chang)江(jiang)中下游、江(jiang)淮及(ji)北(bei)(bei)(bei)方局(ju)部稻區(qu)(qu)(qu)中等至(zhi)偏重(zhong)流(liu)(liu)(liu)行，發(fa)病(bing)(bing)(bing)面積(ji)1200萬(wan)畝；稻曲病(bing)(bing)(bing)在江(jiang)南、長(chang)江(jiang)流(liu)(liu)(liu)域及(ji)西南和(he)東(dong)北(bei)(bei)(bei)部分稻區(qu)(qu)(qu)有偏重(zhong)流(liu)(liu)(liu)行的可能。
三、預測主要依據
（一）當前(qian)病蟲(chong)基數(shu)較(jiao)高
稻(dao)(dao)飛虱在(zai)西(xi)南(nan)大部蟲口(kou)密度超過防治(zhi)(zhi)指標，貴州、四川南(nan)部和(he)(he)(he)重慶等部分(fen)地區達大發(fa)生指標，顯著高于去(qu)年(nian)同期(qi)；江(jiang)南(nan)北(bei)部和(he)(he)(he)長(chang)(chang)江(jiang)中(zhong)游(you)大部稻(dao)(dao)區超過或接近(jin)防治(zhi)(zhi)指標；長(chang)(chang)江(jiang)中(zhong)下游(you)和(he)(he)(he)江(jiang)淮稻(dao)(dao)區近(jin)期(qi)蟲量上升迅速。稻(dao)(dao)縱卷(juan)葉(xie)螟在(zai)江(jiang)南(nan)北(bei)部和(he)(he)(he)長(chang)(chang)江(jiang)上游(you)部分(fen)稻(dao)(dao)區畝幼蟲量1－2萬頭(tou)(tou)，西(xi)南(nan)東部5000－8000頭(tou)(tou)，長(chang)(chang)江(jiang)中(zhong)下游(you)田間(jian)近(jin)期(qi)快速增加，畝蛾量800－1500頭(tou)(tou)。二化螟在(zai)江(jiang)南(nan)、長(chang)(chang)江(jiang)中(zhong)游(you)和(he)(he)(he)西(xi)南(nan)中(zhong)北(bei)部畝殘留蟲量一般1000－2000頭(tou)(tou)。稻(dao)(dao)瘟(wen)病(bing)在(zai)華南(nan)和(he)(he)(he)江(jiang)南(nan)局部早稻(dao)(dao)區發(fa)病(bing)較為(wei)嚴重，西(xi)南(nan)稻(dao)(dao)區葉(xie)瘟(wen)普遍發(fa)病(bing)，東北(bei)和(he)(he)(he)長(chang)(chang)江(jiang)中(zhong)下游(you)稻(dao)(dao)區葉(xie)瘟(wen)逐步顯現，田間(jian)菌源(yuan)充足(zu)。
（二）稻田生境有利于病蟲發(fa)生為害(hai)
我國大(da)部稻(dao)區(qu)水稻(dao)主栽(zai)品種仍以粗稈大(da)穗、優(you)質高產型為(wei)主，生長量大(da)、田間(jian)郁蔽，易(yi)形成(cheng)適(shi)溫高濕的田間(jian)小氣候；華南(nan)(nan)、江南(nan)(nan)和長江中游稻(dao)區(qu)單、雙季稻(dao)混栽(zai)格(ge)局沒(mei)有(you)(you)出現根本改變，栽(zai)插(cha)期不一、橋梁田增多，適(shi)合(he)遷飛性害(hai)蟲(chong)(chong)遷移和螟蟲(chong)(chong)輾轉為(wei)害(hai)；同時，大(da)部水稻(dao)品種抗(kang)(kang)病(bing)(bing)(bing)抗(kang)(kang)蟲(chong)(chong)性不高，有(you)(you)利于(yu)水稻(dao)病(bing)(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)害(hai)特別是褐飛虱、稻(dao)瘟病(bing)(bing)(bing)、稻(dao)曲病(bing)(bing)(bing)等的發生與流行(xing)。
（三(san)）氣象(xiang)條(tiao)件對多數病(bing)蟲(chong)發生(sheng)較為有利
據國家氣候中(zhong)(zhong)心預測，夏季（6至8月），西太平(ping)洋(yang)副高較(jiao)(jiao)常年(nian)同期偏(pian)(pian)強、偏(pian)(pian)北(bei)(bei)、偏(pian)(pian)西，其(qi)控(kong)制(zhi)區(qu)內存在較(jiao)(jiao)強的下沉氣流，外圍將形成大范圍降(jiang)水區(qu)，有利(li)(li)于(yu)“兩(liang)遷(qian)”害(hai)蟲(chong)(chong)北(bei)(bei)上(shang)和(he)過(guo)程性降(jiang)落(luo)(luo)。據國家氣候中(zhong)(zhong)心預測，7－8月份大部(bu)(bu)氣溫接近常年(nian)同期或略偏(pian)(pian)高，主要多雨區(qu)位于(yu)華(hua)北(bei)(bei)南部(bu)(bu)至江淮地區(qu)北(bei)(bei)部(bu)(bu)，江南南部(bu)(bu)、華(hua)南、西南南部(bu)(bu)和(he)西部(bu)(bu)、吉林(lin)和(he)遼寧(ning)東部(bu)(bu)降(jiang)水偏(pian)(pian)多，適合稻(dao)瘟病(bing)和(he)紋(wen)枯(ku)病(bing)等病(bing)害(hai)流行(xing)，并有利(li)(li)于(yu)“兩(liang)遷(qian)”害(hai)蟲(chong)(chong)的遷(qian)入與繁殖；下半年(nian)登陸我國的熱帶氣旋(xuan)較(jiao)(jiao)常年(nian)偏(pian)(pian)多，并可能北(bei)(bei)上(shang)至長江以北(bei)(bei)沿海地區(qu)，這對“兩(liang)遷(qian)”害(hai)蟲(chong)(chong)大規模遷(qian)出、空中(zhong)(zhong)運(yun)行(xing)和(he)集中(zhong)(zhong)降(jiang)落(luo)(luo)極(ji)為有利(li)(li)，其(qi)影響將大于(yu)去(qu)年(nian)。
