根據全區農作物種(zhong)植(zhi)結(jie)構情況、結(jie)合(he)病(bing)蟲(chong)源基數及歷史(shi)資料綜合(he)分析，2010年上半年我區農作物主要(yao)病(bing)蟲(chong)草鼠總體發生程度為中等偏重局部大發生，發生面積(ji)約15500萬畝次。受(shou)暖冬天氣影(ying)響，我區蟲(chong)害發生總體偏早(zao)，稻飛虱、稻縱卷葉螟等遷飛性害蟲(chong)仍呈(cheng)偏重發生態勢。具體發生趨勢預測如下：
1、水稻(dao)(dao)(dao)病(bing)蟲(chong) 發生程(cheng)度4（5）級，發生面積4500萬畝次。與上年相比，預計稻(dao)(dao)(dao)紋枯病(bing)、三化(hua)螟(ming)(ming)、稻(dao)(dao)(dao)縱卷葉(xie)螟(ming)(ming)、稻(dao)(dao)(dao)飛(fei)虱等病(bing)蟲(chong)發生持平到偏重。
稻瘟(wen)病(bing)(bing) 預計(ji)發(fa)生程度3（4）級(ji)，發(fa)生面積(ji)380萬畝次(ci)。發(fa)生主要區(qu)域在桂東(dong)北、桂東(dong)南及種(zhong)植感病(bing)(bing)品種(zhong)較多的(de)山(shan)區(qu)。
稻紋枯(ku)病(bing) 預計發生程度4（5）級，發生面積990萬畝次，全區普(pu)遍發生。重發區在(zai)桂(gui)東(dong)北、桂(gui)東(dong)南(nan)。
三(san)化螟 預計發(fa)生程度2（3）級(ji)，發(fa)生面(mian)積300萬(wan)畝次。主(zhu)要(yao)發(fa)生區域(yu)在(zai)桂中大部及桂東北、右江河谷、桂南部分稻區。
稻飛虱 預(yu)計發生程度4（5）級，發生面(mian)積1300萬畝(mu)次，全區普遍發生。
稻縱卷葉(xie)螟(ming) 預(yu)計(ji)發生程(cheng)度3（5）級(ji)，發生面(mian)積1060萬畝次，全區(qu)普遍發生。
二化螟 預(yu)計發(fa)(fa)生程度(du)1（3）級，發(fa)(fa)生面積90萬(wan)畝(mu)次(ci)。主要發(fa)(fa)生區(qu)域(yu)在桂林市北(bei)部。
水(shui)稻病(bing)毒(du)病(bing) 預計(ji)發(fa)生(sheng)程度1（3）級，發(fa)生(sheng)面積(ji)30萬畝(mu)。主(zhu)要發(fa)生(sheng)區域(yu)在沿海、桂西南(nan)、桂中稻區。
; 此外，水稻胡麻(ma)葉斑病、稻曲病、水稻根結線蟲(chong)、稻蟓(xiang)甲(jia)、稻蝽蟓(xiang)、稻薊(ji)馬、稻葉蟬等病蟲(chong)在部(bu)分稻區將有(you)不同程度的發生，水稻胡麻(ma)葉斑病的發生有(you)逐年(nian)加重趨(qu)勢。
2、玉(yu)米病蟲 發(fa)生程度2（3）級，發(fa)生面(mian)積800萬畝次。預計局部地區的玉(yu)米紋枯病、玉(yu)米螟、玉(yu)米蚜(ya)將偏重發(fa)生。
玉米鐵甲(jia)蟲 發生程度1（3）級(ji)，發生面積20萬畝(mu)次。主要發生在(zai)歷史(shi)發生區(qu)，其中(zhong)百色、崇左(zuo)等市局部偏(pian)重發生。
玉(yu)米螟 發生(sheng)程度2（3）級(ji)，發生(sheng)面積190萬(wan)畝次，玉(yu)米種植區皆有(you)發生(sheng)。
玉(yu)(yu)米蚜蟲 發生(sheng)程度(du)2（3）級，發生(sheng)面積230萬畝(mu)次，玉(yu)(yu)米種植(zhi)區皆有發生(sheng)。
玉米(mi)紋枯病 發生程度2（3）級，發生面(mian)積162萬(wan)畝次。桂西北、桂西南(nan)發生較(jiao)重(zhong)。
玉米大小斑病(bing) 發生(sheng)程度2（3）級(ji)，發生(sheng)面積100萬(wan)畝次。桂(gui)西南(nan)、桂(gui)東南(nan)部分種植感病(bing)品種的地區(qu)發生(sheng)較重。
3、水果病(bing)(bing)蟲 發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生程度2（3）級，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生面積(ji)1800萬畝(mu)次。與上年相比(bi)，預計柑桔(jie)(jie)病(bing)(bing)蟲總(zong)體發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生持(chi)平(ping)(ping)到略(lve)輕，其中(zhong)柑桔(jie)(jie)紅蜘蛛發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生略(lve)重，其余病(bing)(bing)蟲發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生持(chi)平(ping)(ping)到略(lve)輕；荔(li)枝(zhi)(zhi)龍眼(yan)病(bing)(bing)蟲總(zong)體發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生持(chi)平(ping)(ping)，其中(zhong)荔(li)枝(zhi)(zhi)蒂蛀(zhu)蟲發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生偏(pian)輕，荔(li)枝(zhi)(zhi)霜疫霉(mei)病(bing)(bing)及荔(li)枝(zhi)(zhi)蝽(chun)蟓發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生偏(pian)重。
柑(gan)桔炭疽(ju)病(bing)、潰(kui)瘍病(bing)、瘡痂病(bing)發生程度2（3）級，發生面積170萬畝次。
柑(gan)桔紅蜘蛛 發生程度4級，發生面積244萬(wan)畝次。
柑桔潛葉蛾 發生(sheng)程度3（4）級，發生(sheng)面積147萬畝次。
柑桔銹壁(bi)虱(shi) 發(fa)生(sheng)程度3級，發(fa)生(sheng)面積100萬畝次。
柑(gan)桔(jie)蚧(jie)類(lei) 發(fa)生(sheng)程度(du)2（3）級，發(fa)生(sheng)面積85萬畝次。
荔枝霜疫(yi)霉病 發生(sheng)程(cheng)度3級，發生(sheng)面積140萬畝次。
荔枝蝽(chun)蟓 發生程度(du)3級，發生面積120萬畝次。
荔枝蒂蛀蟲(chong) 發(fa)生程度3（4）級，發(fa)生面積(ji)160萬畝次。
4、甘蔗病蟲 發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)程度3（4）級，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)面積1500萬(wan)畝次。與上年相比(bi)，預計(ji)螟(ming)蟲、薊馬(ma)、綿蚜發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)偏重。
甘蔗螟(ming)(ming)蟲 發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)程度3（4）級，發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面積485萬畝次，主要是二點螟(ming)(ming)、條螟(ming)(ming)。桂(gui)中及(ji)桂(gui)西南蔗區(qu)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)較重(zhong)。
甘(gan)蔗綿(mian)蚜 發(fa)生程度3級，發(fa)生面積(ji)336萬畝次，桂中及桂西南蔗區發(fa)生較重。
甘蔗(zhe)薊馬(ma) 發(fa)(fa)生程度3（4）級，發(fa)(fa)生面積456 萬畝次(ci)，桂(gui)中(zhong)及桂(gui)西南蔗(zhe)區發(fa)(fa)生較重。
蔗根土天牛 發(fa)(fa)生程(cheng)度1（3）級(ji)，發(fa)(fa)生面(mian)積(ji)140萬畝次。
黑(hei)穗病(bing)、鳳梨病(bing) 發生(sheng)程度1（2）級，發生(sheng)面(mian)積共105萬畝次(ci)，桂中(zhong)及桂西南(nan)蔗區發生(sheng)較重。
5、蔬菜病蟲 發(fa)生(sheng)程度為3級，發(fa)生(sheng)面積1200萬(wan)畝次，預計蟲害發(fa)生(sheng)持平到偏重(zhong)，病害發(fa)生(sheng)接近上年。
菜蚜 發生程度(du)3（4）級，發生面積180萬畝次(ci)。
小(xiao)菜蛾 發(fa)生程度3（4）級(ji)，發(fa)生面積110萬畝次。
菜青(qing)蟲 發(fa)生(sheng)程度3級，發(fa)生(sheng)面積100萬畝次(ci)。
黃曲條跳(tiao)甲 發生(sheng)程度3（4）級，發生(sheng)面積160萬(wan)畝次
白菜軟腐病 發生程度1（2）級(ji)，發生面積(ji)40萬畝次(ci)。
白菜(cai)霜霉病 發生(sheng)程度2級，發生(sheng)面積45萬畝次。
瓜(gua)類枯萎病 發生(sheng)程度1（2）級，發生(sheng)面積30萬畝次。
6、其他病蟲
鼠害 發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)程度3（4）級，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積990萬(wan)畝次(ci)，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)接近(jin)上年。普(pu)遍發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，山區、旱地發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)偏(pian)重。
草害 發生(sheng)程(cheng)度(du)3級，發生(sheng)面(mian)積3600萬畝次(ci)。
蝗蟲 發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)程度1（3）級，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)165萬(wan)畝次(ci)，其(qi)中(zhong)東亞飛蝗（夏(xia)蝗）發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)7.5萬(wan)畝次(ci)。
福壽螺 發生程度2（3）級，發生面積220萬畝次，略輕與上年，各稻區皆(jie)有發生。
主要依據
1、蟲源面積
2009年(nian)(nian)下半年(nian)(nian)農(nong)作物主(zhu)要病(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)發(fa)生面(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)8697.34萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)次(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)，比(bi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)增(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)203.06萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)次(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)。其(qi)中水稻(dao)病(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)發(fa)生面(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)4175.48萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)次(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)，比(bi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)減(jian)(jian)少(shao)(shao)(shao)110.11萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)次(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)，蔬菜(cai)(cai)病(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)發(fa)生面(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)1346.97萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)次(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)，比(bi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)增(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)133.07萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)次(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)。比(bi)較(jiao)（與2008年(nian)(nian)下半年(nian)(nian)比(bi)）水稻(dao)、蔬菜(cai)(cai)、果樹上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)發(fa)生面(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)較(jiao)大的21種病(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)，水稻(dao)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)三化螟增(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)14.02萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)次(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)，二化螟增(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)27.95萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)次(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)，稻(dao)縱(zong)卷(juan)葉螟增(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)35.04萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)次(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)，稻(dao)飛(fei)虱減(jian)(jian)少(shao)(shao)(shao)99.08萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)次(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)，稻(dao)瘟病(bing)減(jian)(jian)少(shao)(shao)(shao)137.78萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)，紋枯(ku)病(bing)持平；玉(yu)米(mi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)玉(yu)米(mi)螟增(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)31.0萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)次(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)，玉(yu)米(mi)紋枯(ku)病(bing)增(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)12.23萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)，玉(yu)米(mi)蚜增(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)26.99萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)次(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)；柑桔上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)蟲(chong)(chong)害(hai)面(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)略減(jian)(jian)，病(bing)害(hai)面(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)略增(zeng)(zeng)，其(qi)中柑桔葉螨減(jian)(jian)少(shao)(shao)(shao)26.89萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)次(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)，柑桔銹(xiu)螨減(jian)(jian)少(shao)(shao)(shao)15.93萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)次(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)，柑桔蚧(jie)類(lei)減(jian)(jian)少(shao)(shao)(shao)15.40萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)次(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)，柑桔潛葉蛾(e)減(jian)(jian)少(shao)(shao)(shao)7.22萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)次(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)，柑桔瘡(chuang)痂病(bing)增(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)8.37萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)，柑桔炭疽病(bing)增(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)12.11萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)；甘蔗螟減(jian)(jian)少(shao)(shao)(shao)5.51萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)次(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)，甘蔗綿蚜減(jian)(jian)少(shao)(shao)(shao)44.43萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)次(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)，甘蔗薊馬減(jian)(jian)少(shao)(shao)(shao)14.57萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)次(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)；蔬菜(cai)(cai)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)病(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)發(fa)生面(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)大多增(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)，菜(cai)(cai)蚜增(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)102.0萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)次(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)，菜(cai)(cai)青蟲(chong)(chong)增(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)12.23萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)次(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)，小(xiao)菜(cai)(cai)蛾(e)增(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)26.81萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)次(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)，黃曲條跳(tiao)甲(jia)增(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)25.96萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)次(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)；其(qi)他病(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)：豆莢螟增(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)6.05萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)次(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)，花生葉斑病(bing)減(jian)(jian)少(shao)(shao)(shao)14.25萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)，東亞飛(fei)蝗發(fa)生面(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)增(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)17.12萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)次(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)；鼠害(hai)面(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)增(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)290.36萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)次(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)。
2、病蟲源基數
近期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)各(ge)地(di)病(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)基(ji)數(shu)(shu)冬(dong)后(hou)(hou)調(diao)(diao)(diao)查(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)表明，與(yu)上(shang)(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)相(xiang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)：三化螟(ming)(ming)越(yue)冬(dong)死(si)亡率(lv)接近常(chang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)，殘蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)密(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)偏(pian)高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)；稻(dao)(dao)飛(fei)虱(shi)、稻(dao)(dao)縱(zong)卷(juan)(juan)葉螟(ming)(ming)始見(jian)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)偏(pian)早(zao)(zao)；紋枯病(bing)(bing)越(yue)冬(dong)菌核量同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)偏(pian)少；害鼠(shu)密(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)大部(bu)稻(dao)(dao)區(qu)(qu)(qu)有(you)(you)(you)所增(zeng)加(jia)(jia)(jia)。三化螟(ming)(ming) 統(tong)計45個(ge)縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)（市(shi)(shi)、區(qu)(qu)(qu)）加(jia)(jia)(jia)權(quan)平(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)冬(dong)后(hou)(hou)密(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)為662.03頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)/畝(mu)(mu)，比(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)增(zeng)30.25%，比(bi)(bi)(bi)歷年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)平(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)減37.83%。桂中8個(ge)縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)（市(shi)(shi)、區(qu)(qu)(qu)）加(jia)(jia)(jia)權(quan)平(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)冬(dong)后(hou)(hou)密(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)為1270.90頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)/畝(mu)(mu)，比(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)增(zeng)16.14%，比(bi)(bi)(bi)歷年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)平(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)減少52.92%。統(tong)計57個(ge)縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)（市(shi)(shi)、區(qu)(qu)(qu)）各(ge)類(lei)型田(tian)加(jia)(jia)(jia)權(quan)平(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)死(si)亡率(lv)為10.10%，比(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)增(zeng)31.34%，與(yu)歷年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)平(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)持平(ping)(ping)。稻(dao)(dao)飛(fei)虱(shi) 燈下(xia)監測：宜州(zhou)市(shi)(shi)始見(jian)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)出(chu)現在(zai)(zai)2月(yue)(yue)(yue)9日(ri)，比(bi)(bi)(bi)早(zao)(zao)發(fa)生年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)的(de)2009年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)偏(pian)早(zao)(zao)5天。環(huan)江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)、金城江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)、凌(ling)云、蒙山、岑溪、北(bei)(bei)流(liu)、龍州(zhou)、博(bo)白(bai)、浦北(bei)(bei)、防城等縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)（區(qu)(qu)(qu)）皆是3月(yue)(yue)(yue)1或2日(ri)即有(you)(you)(you)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)，始見(jian)大多比(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)偏(pian)早(zao)(zao)，其中北(bei)(bei)流(liu)、博(bo)白(bai)分別(bie)比(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)偏(pian)早(zao)(zao)了(le)18天、21天。浦北(bei)(bei)縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)燈下(xia)更(geng)是出(chu)現了(le)小高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)峰，3月(yue)(yue)(yue)1到(dao)5日(ri)的(de)燈下(xia)誘(you)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)量皆在(zai)(zai)百(bai)(bai)頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)以上(shang)(shang)(shang)，3月(yue)(yue)(yue)1日(ri)及(ji)(ji)4日(ri)的(de)誘(you)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)量更(geng)是分別(bie)達(da)(da)到(dao)272、336頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)。田(tian)間情況：1月(yue)(yue)(yue)21日(ri)，在(zai)(zai)防城區(qu)(qu)(qu)農(nong)科院進行越(yue)冬(dong)調(diao)(diao)(diao)查(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)，調(diao)(diao)(diao)查(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)面積約(yue)50m2，查(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)到(dao)褐飛(fei)虱(shi)高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)齡若蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)1頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，白(bai)背飛(fei)虱(shi)高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)齡和低齡若蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)各(ge)1頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，2月(yue)(yue)(yue)24日(ri)調(diao)(diao)(diao)查(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)，制種秧田(tian)上(shang)(shang)(shang)每(mei)平(ping)(ping)方(fang)米最(zui)高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)5頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，平(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)2.4頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，比(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)減少84.9%，再生稻(dao)(dao)上(shang)(shang)(shang)每(mei)平(ping)(ping)方(fang)米最(zui)高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)2頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，平(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)0.2頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，比(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)減少38.0%。龍州(zhou)縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)1月(yue)(yue)(yue)22日(ri)調(diao)(diao)(diao)查(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)了(le)2塊稻(dao)(dao)田(tian)生境，通過(guo)盆拍法（白(bai)瓷盆，40*30cm，在(zai)(zai)其中一(yi)(yi)個(ge)點，面積約(yue)50m2，查(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)到(dao)褐飛(fei)虱(shi)若蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)4頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，成蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)2頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)。稻(dao)(dao)縱(zong)卷(juan)(juan)葉螟(ming)(ming) 1月(yue)(yue)(yue)20~22日(ri)，在(zai)(zai)防城區(qu)(qu)(qu)農(nong)科院進行越(yue)冬(dong)調(diao)(diao)(diao)查(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)，調(diao)(diao)(diao)查(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)面積約(yue)50m2，通過(guo)剝(bo)查(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)和目(mu)測，查(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)到(dao)稻(dao)(dao)縱(zong)卷(juan)(juan)葉螟(ming)(ming)幼蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)1頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，成蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)4頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)。防城區(qu)(qu)(qu)3月(yue)(yue)(yue)1日(ri)開(kai)燈即誘(you)到(dao)稻(dao)(dao)縱(zong)卷(juan)(juan)葉螟(ming)(ming)，與(yu)上(shang)(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)相(xiang)同(tong)(tong)(tong)。欽北(bei)(bei)區(qu)(qu)(qu)3月(yue)(yue)(yue)4日(ri)燈下(xia)誘(you)獲(huo)一(yi)(yi)頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)稻(dao)(dao)縱(zong)卷(juan)(juan)葉螟(ming)(ming)。稻(dao)(dao)紋枯病(bing)(bing) 大部(bu)稻(dao)(dao)區(qu)(qu)(qu)各(ge)類(lei)型田(tian)平(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)菌核量在(zai)(zai)0.7萬～7.6萬粒/畝(mu)(mu)，高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)的(de)8.7~15.2萬粒/畝(mu)(mu)，與(yu)上(shang)(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)相(xiang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)2/3以上(shang)(shang)(shang)的(de)縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)偏(pian)少，一(yi)(yi)般(ban)偏(pian)少6%~17%，高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)的(de)30%~67%。玉米鐵甲蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong) 歷史發(fa)生區(qu)(qu)(qu)及(ji)(ji)新發(fa)生區(qu)(qu)(qu)冬(dong)后(hou)(hou)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)源基(ji)數(shu)(shu)調(diao)(diao)(diao)查(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)，蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)口(kou)密(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)與(yu)上(shang)(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)相(xiang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)：百(bai)(bai)色、崇左等市(shi)(shi)局部(bu)偏(pian)高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)，其余地(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)偏(pian)少。百(bai)(bai)色市(shi)(shi)西(xi)林、隆(long)林、樂業、靖(jing)西(xi)等縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)調(diao)(diao)(diao)查(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)雜草地(di)每(mei)平(ping)(ping)方(fang)米有(you)(you)(you)成蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)0.16~9頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)的(de)達(da)(da)92~148頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)幅(fu)一(yi)(yi)般(ban)為13.3%~30.97%，高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)的(de)50%~100%，局部(bu)增(zeng)幅(fu)206.67%。 甘蔗地(di)每(mei)百(bai)(bai)株有(you)(you)(you)成蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)多的(de)達(da)(da)19~76頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，一(yi)(yi)般(ban)為0.6~5.3頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，局部(bu)地(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)則高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)達(da)(da)330~500頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)。百(bai)(bai)色市(shi)(shi)西(xi)林、田(tian)東(dong)、平(ping)(ping)果及(ji)(ji)崇左市(shi)(shi)的(de)憑祥(xiang)等縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)（市(shi)(shi)）去年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)調(diao)(diao)(diao)查(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)未見(jian)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)，今年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)均(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)見(jian)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)；特別(bie)是憑祥(xiang)市(shi)(shi)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)量達(da)(da)19~76頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)/百(bai)(bai)株。靖(jing)西(xi)、江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)州(zhou)等縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)（區(qu)(qu)(qu)）的(de)增(zeng)幅(fu)一(yi)(yi)般(ban)為16.7%~80%，高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)的(de)達(da)(da)150%~700%。害鼠(shu) 永(yong)福、金秀、宜州(zhou)、橫縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、賓陽、北(bei)(bei)流(liu)、浦北(bei)(bei)等縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)（區(qu)(qu)(qu)）近期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)調(diao)(diao)(diao)查(cha)(cha)(cha)(cha)，鼠(shu)密(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)大部(bu)增(zeng)加(jia)(jia)(jia)，增(zeng)加(jia)(jia)(jia)幅(fu)度(du)(du)(du)在(zai)(zai)15%~33%，其中橫縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)害鼠(shu)密(mi)(mi)度(du)(du)(du)一(yi)(yi)般(ban)為8.7頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)/畝(mu)(mu)，最(zui)高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)22頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)/畝(mu)(mu)，比(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)增(zeng)123%。
3、農事活(huo)動
截止3月25日，全區已浸播早稻種子1750.3萬(wan)(wan)公(gong)斤，占應播量的(de)70.2%，同比(bi)(bi)分(fen)別少(shao)313.85萬(wan)(wan)公(gong)斤、11.07個百分(fen)點。早稻插秧42.09萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)，同比(bi)(bi)減少(shao)77.41萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)。全區春(chun)種(zhong)旱地(di)作物2336.04萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)，同比(bi)(bi)少(shao)153.61萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)。春(chun)種(zhong)作物中，春(chun)玉米(mi)337.18萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)，同比(bi)(bi)少(shao)9.44萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)；糖料蔗956.95萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)，同比(bi)(bi)多(duo)128.22萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)，其中新(xin)植蔗291.02萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)，同比(bi)(bi)多(duo)81.06萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)。
4、氣候因素
縱(zong)觀(guan)2009年(nian)12月(yue)(yue)(yue)至2010年(nian)2月(yue)(yue)(yue)我(wo)區氣(qi)候情況，存(cun)在(zai)如下特點：干旱(han)少(shao)(shao)(shao)雨(yu)(yu)(yu)，氣(qi)溫(wen)同(tong)比(bi)偏(pian)高，水(shui)(shui)庫(ku)(ku)蓄(xu)水(shui)(shui)量(liang)明顯(xian)減(jian)少(shao)(shao)(shao)。2009年(nian)1月(yue)(yue)(yue)氣(qi)溫(wen)比(bi)常年(nian)偏(pian)高0.7℃；2010年(nian)1月(yue)(yue)(yue)、2月(yue)(yue)(yue)氣(qi)溫(wen)分(fen)別(bie)比(bi)常年(nian)偏(pian)高1.7℃、2.8℃，偏(pian)高程度分(fen)別(bie)居1951年(nian)以(yi)來(lai)同(tong)期(qi)第(di)8、10位。2009年(nian)12月(yue)(yue)(yue)份平均(jun)(jun)(jun)降(jiang)雨(yu)(yu)(yu)量(liang)23.2毫米，比(bi)常年(nian)同(tong)期(qi)偏(pian)少(shao)(shao)(shao)2成；2010年(nian)1月(yue)(yue)(yue)份平均(jun)(jun)(jun)降(jiang)雨(yu)(yu)(yu)量(liang)達127.0mm，創下1951年(nian)以(yi)來(lai)1月(yue)(yue)(yue)份降(jiang)雨(yu)(yu)(yu)量(liang)的(de)最高紀錄(lu)。但降(jiang)雨(yu)(yu)(yu)分(fen)布(bu)不(bu)平衡，桂西北及桂東南降(jiang)雨(yu)(yu)(yu)相對偏(pian)少(shao)(shao)(shao)；2月(yue)(yue)(yue)份平均(jun)(jun)(jun)降(jiang)雨(yu)(yu)(yu)量(liang)8.2mm，比(bi)常年(nian)同(tong)期(qi)偏(pian)少(shao)(shao)(shao)8.6成，偏(pian)少(shao)(shao)(shao)程度居1951年(nian)以(yi)來(lai)同(tong)期(qi)的(de)第(di)2位。3月(yue)(yue)(yue)上旬統(tong)計：全區水(shui)(shui)庫(ku)(ku)有效蓄(xu)水(shui)(shui)量(liang)為31.57億立(li)方米，占有效庫(ku)(ku)容的(de)31.80%，分(fen)別(bie)比(bi)上年(nian)同(tong)期(qi)、歷年(nian)平均(jun)(jun)(jun)減(jian)少(shao)(shao)(shao)10.92、10.85億立(li)方米。水(shui)(shui)庫(ku)(ku)蓄(xu)水(shui)(shui)量(liang)的(de)減(jian)少(shao)(shao)(shao)，不(bu)利于耙漚滅螟。
防治意見
1、廣西(xi)是全國(guo)遷(qian)飛性(xing)害(hai)蟲從境(jing)外(wai)遷(qian)入和(he)繁殖(zhi)的橋頭堡，各地要(yao)充(chong)分(fen)認識我區遷(qian)飛性(xing)害(hai)蟲監控工作在(zai)全國(guo)的戰(zhan)略地位，切實做好稻飛虱(shi)、稻縱卷葉螟(ming)等遷(qian)飛性(xing)害(hai)蟲的預警工作，為長江中(zhong)下游(you)地區遷(qian)飛性(xing)害(hai)蟲的預測提供資訊，并做好防治工作，減(jian)輕中(zhong)下游(you)地區防治的壓力。
2、充分認識病(bing)蟲測(ce)報(bao)(bao)工(gong)(gong)作(zuo)(zuo)的(de)重要(yao)性，加強領導(dao)，重視測(ce)報(bao)(bao)工(gong)(gong)作(zuo)(zuo)，投入必要(yao)業務經費，推(tui)進預測(ce)預報(bao)(bao)工(gong)(gong)作(zuo)(zuo)的(de)網絡化、可視化、標準(zhun)化工(gong)(gong)作(zuo)(zuo)，確保植保部門田間(jian)調查、信息傳遞(di)、預警發布等工(gong)(gong)作(zuo)(zuo)順(shun)利開展。
3、各級植(zhi)保(bao)部門科(ke)技(ji)人員應立足(zu)本職，敬業愛(ai)崗，深入(ru)田間調查(cha)，掌握(wo)病蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)發(fa)生動態，及時準確發(fa)布病蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)情報(bao)，科(ke)學指導(dao)防治，堅(jian)持“天天調查(cha)，五天一報(bao)，重大病蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)突發(fa)事(shi)件實時匯報(bao)”制度，在(zai)做好(hao)(hao)常(chang)規病蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)系統監(jian)測的同時，還要抓(zhua)好(hao)(hao)暴發(fa)性(xing)、危(wei)險(xian)性(xing)病蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)的監(jian)測，為農業生產(chan)安全“保(bao)駕護(hu)航”。
4、各地要以繼續普及提高病蟲防治技術，組織基層防治網絡，加快專業防治隊建設，開展群防群治。積極推廣使用頻振式殺蟲燈、毒餌站、性誘劑等防治新技術，應急防治應選用安全、經濟、高效、對口農藥，并注(zhu)意安全(quan)間隔期。深入做好病蟲無害化治理技術的宣(xuan)傳推(tui)廣工(gong)作(zuo)，搞(gao)好示范，帶動全(quan)局(ju)，為生(sheng)態農業(ye)服(fu)務。
廣西壯族自治區農作物病蟲測報站
