根據作(zuo)物品種(zhong)布局、栽培技術、病(bing)蟲基(ji)數以及未來天(tian)氣趨(qu)勢(shi)綜合分析，預計2010年水稻(dao)(dao)(dao)中后期病(bing)蟲呈偏重發(fa)生態勢(shi)，主(zhu)要(yao)病(bing)蟲有稻(dao)(dao)(dao)瘟(wen)病(bing)、稻(dao)(dao)(dao)曲病(bing)、紋枯病(bing)、水稻(dao)(dao)(dao)螟蟲、稻(dao)(dao)(dao)飛虱及稻(dao)(dao)(dao)縱卷葉螟。
總(zong)趨勢：稻瘟病(bing)預(yu)(yu)計(ji)偏(pian)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(4級(ji))，發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)400萬(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)次(ci)(ci)，其中(zhong)穗頸(jing)瘟發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)200萬(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)左右，應防面(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)1100萬(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)次(ci)(ci)以上，流(liu)行區(qu)域主要是川東北及盆(pen)周稻瘟病(bing)常發(fa)(fa)(fa)區(qu)。稻曲病(bing)預(yu)(yu)計(ji)偏(pian)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(4級(ji))，局部地(di)方為害(hai)超過稻瘟病(bing)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)600萬(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)。紋枯病(bing)預(yu)(yu)計(ji)偏(pian)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)（4級(ji)），發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)1000萬(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)。二代螟蟲預(yu)(yu)計(ji)偏(pian)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(4級(ji))，發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)1600萬(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)次(ci)(ci)。稻飛虱(shi)預(yu)(yu)計(ji)偏(pian)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(4級(ji))，重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)區(qu)域集中(zhong)在川南、川東局部，發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)350萬(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)次(ci)(ci)。稻縱(zong)卷葉螟預(yu)(yu)計(ji)中(zhong)等發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(3(4)級(ji))，川東南常發(fa)(fa)(fa)區(qu)偏(pian)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)250萬(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)次(ci)(ci)。
主要依據(ju)：（1）病(bing)(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)源基數壓力大(da)。近(jin)期葉瘟(wen)(wen)(wen)在(zai)川(chuan)(chuan)中(zhong)、川(chuan)(chuan)北部(bu)分地(di)區(qu)(qu)發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)迅(xun)速，目(mu)(mu)前(qian)已(yi)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)134.86萬畝(mu)，比6月30日增加(jia)69%。二化(hua)螟(ming)冬后(hou)(hou)(hou)(hou)畝(mu)殘蟲(chong)(chong)量(liang)(liang)為0-3443頭，平(ping)(ping)均1135.5頭/畝(mu)，三(san)(san)化(hua)螟(ming)冬后(hou)(hou)(hou)(hou)畝(mu)殘蟲(chong)(chong)量(liang)(liang)14-4336頭，平(ping)(ping)均920頭，比去年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)略低。川(chuan)(chuan)西(xi)部(bu)分縣三(san)(san)化(hua)螟(ming)越冬基數超過(guo)二化(hua)螟(ming)。一(yi)(yi)代(dai)螟(ming)蟲(chong)(chong)殘蟲(chong)(chong)量(liang)(liang)高(gao)，23個站(zhan)點調查，未防治田(tian)一(yi)(yi)代(dai)螟(ming)蟲(chong)(chong)殘蟲(chong)(chong)量(liang)(liang)平(ping)(ping)均2512頭/畝(mu)。受(shou)蟲(chong)(chong)源地(di)廣西(xi)、云南、貴州今(jin)(jin)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)飛虱(shi)始見期提前(qian)，遷(qian)入峰次偏多(duo)，燈下蟲(chong)(chong)量(liang)(liang)偏高(gao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)影響，我(wo)省(sheng)川(chuan)(chuan)南稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)飛虱(shi)今(jin)(jin)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)燈下見蟲(chong)(chong)早，比去年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)提早6—36天(tian)，目(mu)(mu)前(qian)田(tian)間達(da)標面積(ji)近(jin)120萬畝(mu)，近(jin)期我(wo)省(sheng)周(zhou)邊的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)云南等(deng)地(di)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)飛虱(shi)燈下、田(tian)間蟲(chong)(chong)量(liang)(liang)激(ji)增，致(zhi)使今(jin)(jin)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)我(wo)省(sheng)水(shui)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)生(sheng)(sheng)長中(zhong)后(hou)(hou)(hou)(hou)期稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)飛虱(shi)仍存在(zai)暴發(fa)(fa)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)潛(qian)在(zai)威脅。（2）水(shui)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)品(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)抗病(bing)(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)性差。我(wo)省(sheng)大(da)面積(ji)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)植(zhi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)雜交(jiao)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)、優質稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)多(duo)數抗病(bing)(bing)(bing)性較差，今(jin)(jin)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)水(shui)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)生(sheng)(sheng)育期普(pu)遍推遲15天(tian)左(zuo)右，有(you)(you)(you)利(li)于(yu)中(zhong)后(hou)(hou)(hou)(hou)期蟲(chong)(chong)害(hai)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)生(sheng)(sheng)長和繁殖。稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)瘟(wen)(wen)(wen)病(bing)(bing)(bing)菌對(dui)(dui)(dui)我(wo)省(sheng)水(shui)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)生(sheng)(sheng)產品(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)致(zhi)病(bing)(bing)(bing)力仍處于(yu)相(xiang)當高(gao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)水(shui)平(ping)(ping)。據(ju)不完全(quan)統計，目(mu)(mu)前(qian)在(zai)抗圃中(zhong)已(yi)發(fa)(fa)病(bing)(bing)(bing)品(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)近(jin)260個。2009年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)省(sheng)農(nong)科院(yuan)植(zhi)保所對(dui)(dui)(dui)77個生(sheng)(sheng)產主栽品(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)進行(xing)了稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)瘟(wen)(wen)(wen)病(bing)(bing)(bing)和稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)曲(qu)病(bing)(bing)(bing)抗性跟蹤監測(ce)，結果(guo)顯示(shi)：葉瘟(wen)(wen)(wen)感(gan)病(bing)(bing)(bing)占90.91%，頸(jing)瘟(wen)(wen)(wen)感(gan)病(bing)(bing)(bing)占53.24%，稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)曲(qu)病(bing)(bing)(bing)中(zhong)感(gan)到感(gan)病(bing)(bing)(bing)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)品(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)占58.44%。近(jin)三(san)(san)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)對(dui)(dui)(dui)211個品(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)（組合）的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)瘟(wen)(wen)(wen)病(bing)(bing)(bing)監測(ce)，未發(fa)(fa)現(xian)同時達(da)到中(zhong)抗以(yi)上水(shui)平(ping)(ping)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)品(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)。(3)栽培技術給病(bing)(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)帶來一(yi)(yi)些新的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)影響。我(wo)省(sheng)旱(han)育秧、免耕及再生(sheng)(sheng)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)面積(ji)較大(da)，旱(han)育秧、拋秧分蘗力強、長勢旺，對(dui)(dui)(dui)螟(ming)蟲(chong)(chong)、紋枯(ku)病(bing)(bing)(bing)、稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)瘟(wen)(wen)(wen)病(bing)(bing)(bing)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)有(you)(you)(you)利(li)。川(chuan)(chuan)南、川(chuan)(chuan)東再生(sheng)(sheng)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)推廣有(you)(you)(you)利(li)于(yu)后(hou)(hou)(hou)(hou)期螟(ming)蟲(chong)(chong)（特別是三(san)(san)化(hua)螟(ming)）的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)取食。雜糯間栽的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)推廣對(dui)(dui)(dui)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)瘟(wen)(wen)(wen)病(bing)(bing)(bing)在(zai)局(ju)部(bu)區(qu)(qu)域有(you)(you)(you)一(yi)(yi)定的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)控制作(zuo)用(yong)。（4）氣候條件。據(ju)氣象部(bu)門(men)預測(ce)，盛(sheng)夏（7～8月）總降水(shui)量(liang)(liang)盆地(di)東北部(bu)和南部(bu)正常偏多(duo)，降雨(yu)頻繁，盆地(di)中(zhong)東部(bu)有(you)(you)(you)一(yi)(yi)般性伏旱(han)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)。水(shui)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)孕穗(sui)期至灌漿期雨(yu)水(shui)多(duo)、田(tian)間濕度大(da)，對(dui)(dui)(dui)水(shui)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)后(hou)(hou)(hou)(hou)期穗(sui)頸(jing)瘟(wen)(wen)(wen)、稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)曲(qu)病(bing)(bing)(bing)、紋枯(ku)病(bing)(bing)(bing)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)流行(xing)和二代(dai)螟(ming)蟲(chong)(chong)為害(hai)及“兩(liang)遷(qian)”害(hai)蟲(chong)(chong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)遷(qian)入有(you)(you)(you)利(li)。
目前稻瘟病已進入流行期，發病面積和發病縣數增長迅速，各地要大力開展稻瘟病的查治工作，發現一點，防治一片，壓低穗頸瘟菌源。要協調好稻曲病與穗頸瘟的防治關系，建議按各自的防治適期分別進行防治，積極推廣應用生物農藥防治稻曲病。各地要密切關注天氣趨勢，進一步加大“兩遷”害蟲監測工作力度。對川西、川中的稻蝗和西南山地及盆周山區的粘蟲、稻苞蟲，要引起高度重視，防止局部暴發成災。
