一、早(zao)稻主要病(bing)蟲發(fa)生(sheng)實況(kuang)
今(jin)年(nian)全市早稻種(zhong)植面積(ji)347.8萬畝，早稻病(bing)蟲總體為中(zhong)等(deng)至偏重(zhong)發生，明(ming)顯重(zhong)于去年(nian)，病(bing)蟲總發生面積(ji)584.19萬畝；其中(zhong)稻飛虱、紋(wen)枯病(bing)偏重(zhong)發生，穗瘟、一代二化螟(ming)和稻縱(zong)卷葉(xie)螟(ming)中(zhong)等(deng)發生，葉(xie)瘟和三(san)化螟(ming)輕發生。
二、中晚稻(dao)主要病蟲發生趨勢(shi)分析
今年我市中(zhong)稻(dao)種植面積(ji)91萬畝(mu)，二晚(wan)種植面積(ji)約390萬畝(mu)。預計(ji)全市中(zhong)晚(wan)稻(dao)病蟲(chong)將偏重發生，蟲(chong)害重于病害，尤以“兩遷(qian)”害蟲(chong)發生嚴重。
稻(dao)(dao)飛虱：偏(pian)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，局(ju)(ju)部(bu)(bu)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)，重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)于(yu)(yu)(yu)去(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)，預(yu)計(ji)(ji)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)(ji)約為(wei)(wei)60%。稻(dao)(dao)縱卷(juan)葉螟：偏(pian)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)于(yu)(yu)(yu)去(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)；預(yu)計(ji)(ji)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)(ji)約為(wei)(wei)50%。二化(hua)螟：中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)稻(dao)(dao)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，局(ju)(ju)部(bu)(bu)偏(pian)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)，重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)于(yu)(yu)(yu)去(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)，預(yu)計(ji)(ji)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)(ji)約為(wei)(wei)40%；二晚中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，相似于(yu)(yu)(yu)去(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)，預(yu)計(ji)(ji)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)(ji)約為(wei)(wei)30%。三化(hua)螟：偏(pian)輕(qing)(qing)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，相似于(yu)(yu)(yu)去(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)，預(yu)計(ji)(ji)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)(ji)約為(wei)(wei)5%。紋枯(ku)病(bing)(bing)：偏(pian)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，相似于(yu)(yu)(yu)去(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)，預(yu)計(ji)(ji)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)(ji)約為(wei)(wei)60%。稻(dao)(dao)瘟病(bing)(bing)：中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)稻(dao)(dao)穗(sui)瘟偏(pian)輕(qing)(qing)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，局(ju)(ju)部(bu)(bu)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)于(yu)(yu)(yu)去(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian), 預(yu)計(ji)(ji)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)(ji)約5%；晚稻(dao)(dao)稻(dao)(dao)瘟病(bing)(bing)偏(pian)輕(qing)(qing)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，局(ju)(ju)部(bu)(bu)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，預(yu)計(ji)(ji)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)(ji)約3%。稻(dao)(dao)曲(qu)病(bing)(bing)：中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，局(ju)(ju)部(bu)(bu)偏(pian)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)，重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)于(yu)(yu)(yu)去(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)，預(yu)計(ji)(ji)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)晚稻(dao)(dao)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)(ji)分別(bie)為(wei)(wei)15%和l0%。南方黑(hei)條矮縮病(bing)(bing)：明顯重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)于(yu)(yu)(yu)去(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)，預(yu)計(ji)(ji)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)(ji)約為(wei)(wei)5%。此(ci)外，部(bu)(bu)分稻(dao)(dao)區粘(zhan)蟲可能發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)較重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)。
三(san)、主要(yao)預測依據
1 、病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)基數(shu)。（1）二化螟(ming)：早(zao)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)一(yi)(yi)代(dai)殘(can)留蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)量(liang)(liang)大(da)，二代(dai)在(zai)(zai)一(yi)(yi)季晚(wan)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)田(tian)造成枯心率一(yi)(yi)般(ban)(ban)0.2-1%，高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)的(de)1.7-7.5%，當前田(tian)間幼蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)殘(can)存(cun)(cun)基數(shu)較(jiao)高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)，畝(mu)殘(can)存(cun)(cun)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)量(liang)(liang)平均(jun)3600條，最(zui)高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)達(da)18000條。（2）稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)飛(fei)虱(shi)：目前一(yi)(yi)季稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)部(bu)分(fen)田(tian)塊為害(hai)(hai)較(jiao)重(zhong)，百叢(cong)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)量(liang)(liang)高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)的(de)1000-2000只，最(zui)高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)達(da)5000只。（3）稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)縱卷(juan)葉螟(ming)：二代(dai)在(zai)(zai)部(bu)分(fen)早(zao)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)和(he)(he)一(yi)(yi)季稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)上為害(hai)(hai)較(jiao)重(zhong)，三代(dai)田(tian)間蛾(e)量(liang)(liang)高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)，一(yi)(yi)般(ban)(ban)2000-8000只/畝(mu)，高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)的(de)1-2萬(wan)只/畝(mu)，最(zui)高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)達(da)3萬(wan)只/畝(mu)，目前中(zhong)(zhong)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)田(tian)卷(juan)葉率一(yi)(yi)般(ban)(ban)0.35-3%，高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)的(de)4-13%，畝(mu)殘(can)存(cun)(cun)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)量(liang)(liang)一(yi)(yi)般(ban)(ban)700-900條，高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)的(de)2000條以(yi)(yi)上。（4）稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)瘟(wen)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)：中(zhong)(zhong)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)少數(shu)品種(zhong)葉稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)瘟(wen)發(fa)生(sheng)嚴(yan)重(zhong)，病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)葉率一(yi)(yi)般(ban)(ban)7.5%，最(zui)高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)達(da)80%，弋陽、萬(wan)年、玉(yu)山(shan)還(huan)出(chu)現(xian)了(le)的(de)死苗、坐蔸現(xian)象。（5）南方(fang)黑條矮縮病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)：弋陽、橫峰(feng)、鉛山(shan)等(deng)地一(yi)(yi)季稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)發(fa)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)田(tian)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)叢(cong)率一(yi)(yi)般(ban)(ban)2-13%，最(zui)高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)達(da)30%以(yi)(yi)上。2、 栽培管理條件。中(zhong)(zhong)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)兩(liang)系稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)種(zhong)植面(mian)積(ji)比例(li)高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)，有(you)利于螟(ming)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)、稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)飛(fei)虱(shi)的(de)取食、為害(hai)(hai)；R4015、大(da)禾(he)谷、糯(nuo)谷等(deng)高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)感(gan)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)瘟(wen)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)和(he)(he)兩(liang)優(you)(you)培九、粵優(you)(you)938、R4015等(deng)高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)感(gan)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)曲病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)品種(zhong)種(zhong)植面(mian)積(ji)較(jiao)大(da)，有(you)利于稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)瘟(wen)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)和(he)(he)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)曲病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)發(fa)生(sheng)流行；中(zhong)(zhong)、晚(wan)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)混栽面(mian)大(da)，橋(qiao)梁(liang)田(tian)多，有(you)利于“兩(liang)遷”害(hai)(hai)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)遷移和(he)(he)螟(ming)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)輾轉為害(hai)(hai)。3、 氣候(hou)條件。據氣象部(bu)門預測， 8-10月(yue)氣溫略偏高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)，降雨總量(liang)(liang)接近常年，8月(yue)上旬(xun)后期(qi)(qi)(qi)-中(zhong)(zhong)旬(xun)前期(qi)(qi)(qi)、下旬(xun)中(zhong)(zhong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)有(you)兩(liang)次降雨過程，對稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)瘟(wen)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)、稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)曲病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)、稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)飛(fei)虱(shi)和(he)(he)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)縱卷(juan)葉螟(ming)發(fa)生(sheng)有(you)利；9月(yue)份有(you)3次冷空氣過程，分(fen)別出(chu)現(xian)在(zai)(zai)上旬(xun)后期(qi)(qi)(qi)、中(zhong)(zhong)旬(xun)中(zhong)(zhong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)和(he)(he)下旬(xun)后期(qi)(qi)(qi)有(you)，對稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)縱卷(juan)葉螟(ming)、穗瘟(wen)和(he)(he)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)曲病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)發(fa)生(sheng)有(you)利，對稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)飛(fei)虱(shi)發(fa)生(sheng)不利。
四、防治策略
1、防治(zhi)(zhi)重點。一(yi)季稻(dao)(dao)(dao)抓(zhua)住破口(kou)前5-7天和(he)(he)破口(kou)抽穗(sui)(sui)初期，打(da)好以(yi)主(zhu)(zhu)治(zhi)(zhi)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)飛(fei)(fei)虱、螟蟲，預防穗(sui)(sui)瘟、稻(dao)(dao)(dao)曲(qu)病為主(zhu)(zhu)的混合保穗(sui)(sui)藥。二晚移栽后(hou)7-10天防治(zhi)(zhi)1次(ci)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)飛(fei)(fei)虱，預防南(nan)方水稻(dao)(dao)(dao)黑條矮(ai)縮病；苗期主(zhu)(zhu)治(zhi)(zhi)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)飛(fei)(fei)虱、卷葉(xie)蟲和(he)(he)紋(wen)(wen)枯(ku)病，兼(jian)(jian)治(zhi)(zhi)螟蟲和(he)(he)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)瘟病；穗(sui)(sui)期主(zhu)(zhu)治(zhi)(zhi)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)飛(fei)(fei)虱，預防穗(sui)(sui)瘟和(he)(he)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)曲(qu)病，兼(jian)(jian)治(zhi)(zhi)螟蟲和(he)(he)紋(wen)(wen)枯(ku)病。
2、防治方法。實行化學防治與綠色防控相結合，一方面要及時指導農民選用高效安全對路農藥開展化學防治，另一方面要大力推廣燈光和信息素誘殺害蟲等綠色植保技術進行綠色防控；同時，還要進一步推進病蟲專業化統防統治，提高防治效率和效果。
