中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)氮肥工(gong)業(ye)協會第五次會員大(da)(da)會暨氮肥、甲(jia)(jia)醇(chun)“十(shi)(shi)二五”規(gui)劃(hua)報告會于1月(yue)13日在(zai)北(bei)京召開。中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)氮肥工(gong)業(ye)協會提交(jiao)的(de)(de)(de)《甲(jia)(jia)醇(chun)行(xing)業(ye)“十(shi)(shi)二五”發(fa)展規(gui)劃(hua)(討論稿(gao))》顯示，預(yu)計2010年(nian)(nian)(nian)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)甲(jia)(jia)醇(chun)產能(neng)達(da)3803萬(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)，同(tong)比增(zeng)長(chang)68.35%；產量達(da)1570萬(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)，同(tong)比增(zeng)長(chang)38.94%。“十(shi)(shi)一五”初期(qi)，隨(sui)著中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)經(jing)濟的(de)(de)(de)快速發(fa)展、工(gong)業(ye)需(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)的(de)(de)(de)拉動及對下(xia)游需(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)的(de)(de)(de)過度樂觀，甲(jia)(jia)醇(chun)行(xing)業(ye)進入(ru)快速發(fa)展期(qi)，產能(neng)大(da)(da)幅增(zeng)加。與此同(tong)時，也(ye)出現盲目投資(zi)現象(xiang)。2006—2010年(nian)(nian)(nian)，中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)甲(jia)(jia)醇(chun)產能(neng)增(zeng)加2847萬(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)，截至2010年(nian)(nian)(nian)底甲(jia)(jia)醇(chun)產能(neng)達(da)3803萬(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)。而同(tong)期(qi)，中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)甲(jia)(jia)醇(chun)表觀消費量年(nian)(nian)(nian)均(jun)增(zeng)長(chang)約(yue)20%，根據對下(xia)游行(xing)業(ye)發(fa)展趨(qu)勢的(de)(de)(de)綜合分析，預(yu)計到2015年(nian)(nian)(nian)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)甲(jia)(jia)醇(chun)需(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)為4000萬(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)，產能(neng)應控制在(zai)5000萬(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)左(zuo)右。
目(mu)前在(zai)(zai)(zai)建(jian)和(he)規(gui)劃建(jian)設(she)的甲醇(chun)裝置產(chan)(chan)能還有3000多萬噸，即使不考慮尚處(chu)于規(gui)劃階段的產(chan)(chan)能，中國(guo)投產(chan)(chan)和(he)在(zai)(zai)(zai)建(jian)的產(chan)(chan)能在(zai)(zai)(zai)5600萬噸以上(shang)，產(chan)(chan)能過剩問題十(shi)分嚴重。
