根據水稻(dao)(dao)主產區當(dang)前病蟲(chong)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)情(qing)況(kuang)，兩遷害蟲(chong)（稻(dao)(dao)縱(zong)卷葉螟(ming)、稻(dao)(dao)飛(fei)虱）外地蟲(chong)源，結合歷史資料及(ji)氣象條(tiao)件等(deng)(deng)(deng)因(yin)素綜合分(fen)析，預計水稻(dao)(dao)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)后期病蟲(chong)總(zong)體中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)(deng)(deng)偏(pian)(pian)重(zhong)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)。其(qi)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)：稻(dao)(dao)飛(fei)虱中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)(deng)(deng)偏(pian)(pian)重(zhong)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，濟寧部(bu)分(fen)稻(dao)(dao)田大(da)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)；稻(dao)(dao)縱(zong)卷葉螟(ming)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)(deng)(deng)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，臨沂南部(bu)稻(dao)(dao)區局部(bu)地塊(kuai)偏(pian)(pian)重(zhong)；粘蟲(chong)偏(pian)(pian)輕發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，臨沂局部(bu)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)(deng)(deng)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)；二化螟(ming)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)(deng)(deng)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)；稻(dao)(dao)瘟病中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)(deng)(deng)偏(pian)(pian)重(zhong)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)；水稻(dao)(dao)紋枯病中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)(deng)(deng)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，臨沂部(bu)分(fen)地塊(kuai)偏(pian)(pian)重(zhong)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)。
預報依據：
1、當(dang)前病(bing)蟲(chong)基數(shu)高，兩遷害蟲(chong)外地(di)蟲(chong)源(yuan)數(shu)量較高
近日調查，稻(dao)(dao)(dao)瘟(wen)病(bing)(bing)：濟寧葉瘟(wen)病(bing)(bing)病(bing)(bing)田(tian)率(lv)64%，以慢性病(bing)(bing)斑為主,已有少量急性稻(dao)(dao)(dao)瘟(wen)出現；臨(lin)沂病(bing)(bing)田(tian)率(lv)30-40％，病(bing)(bing)葉率(lv)一般(ban)(ban)5-10％。稻(dao)(dao)(dao)縱卷葉螟：濟寧平(ping)均(jun)(jun)畝(mu)蛾(e)量84頭，高的達(da)400頭；郯城發(fa)(fa)現零星成蟲(chong)，多為本地蟲(chong)源，每(mei)畝(mu)蛾(e)量達(da)10頭左右(you)，未發(fa)(fa)現蛾(e)峰。稻(dao)(dao)(dao)飛(fei)虱(shi):濟寧平(ping)均(jun)(jun)百墩有蟲(chong)160頭，重地塊(kuai)達(da)500頭；臨(lin)沂一般(ban)(ban)百墩有蟲(chong)50-100頭，主要(yao)是白背飛(fei)虱(shi)。我省(sheng)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)區(qu)兩(liang)遷害蟲(chong)的發(fa)(fa)生程度受外來蟲(chong)源影響較大(da)，根據農業部通報，南方(fang)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)區(qu)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)縱卷葉螟、稻(dao)(dao)(dao)飛(fei)虱(shi)田(tian)間數(shu)量較大(da)，局(ju)部超過大(da)發(fa)(fa)生指標(biao)。
2、氣象條件總體(ti)有利(li)病蟲(chong)發生(sheng)
近期(qi)，受臺(tai)風影響暴風雨(yu)等強(qiang)對流天(tian)氣較(jiao)多，有(you)(you)利(li)于兩遷害蟲遷入，高溫高濕環(huan)境有(you)(you)利(li)于其(qi)卵孵化和幼蟲存活(huo)。天(tian)氣預報顯示，8月份降雨(yu)較(jiao)頻繁，有(you)(you)利(li)于水稻(dao)病(bing)害的發生流行。
3、當前水稻(dao)生長情況(kuang)對病蟲(chong)發生有利
水稻主栽品種以粗稈大穗、優質高產型為主，目前水稻已進入拔節期，生長量大、田間郁蔽，濕度大，通透性較差，易形成適溫高濕的田間小氣候，對稻飛虱、稻瘟病、紋枯病等的發生有利。
