7月(yue)11－13日，全國農技(ji)中(zhong)心在(zai)(zai)(zai)黑龍江(jiang)(jiang)省哈爾濱市組織召開了下半年全國農作物重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)大(da)(da)病(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)害(hai)(hai)發生(sheng)趨勢(shi)會商會，來(lai)自水(shui)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)主(zhu)產(chan)區(qu)(qu)19個(ge)省（自治區(qu)(qu)、直轄市）植保機構的(de)測報技(ji)術人員和(he)有(you)(you)關專(zhuan)家(jia)對(dui)下半年水(shui)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)病(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)害(hai)(hai)的(de)發生(sheng)趨勢(shi)進行了會商。與會專(zhuan)家(jia)根(gen)據當前病(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)基數、栽培(pei)條件和(he)氣候因(yin)素等綜(zong)合分(fen)析(xi)，預計中(zhong)晚(wan)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)主(zhu)要病(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)害(hai)(hai)總體呈偏重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)至大(da)(da)發生(sheng)態勢(shi)，發生(sheng)面(mian)積10.7億(yi)畝次(ci)。其中(zhong)，“兩遷(qian)”害(hai)(hai)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)在(zai)(zai)(zai)淮河以(yi)南大(da)(da)部(bu)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)區(qu)(qu)偏重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)至大(da)(da)發生(sheng)；二化(hua)螟在(zai)(zai)(zai)長(chang)江(jiang)(jiang)中(zhong)游、西南中(zhong)北部(bu)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)區(qu)(qu)偏重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)發生(sheng)；稻(dao)(dao)(dao)瘟(wen)病(bing)(bing)在(zai)(zai)(zai)西南、東北以(yi)及江(jiang)(jiang)南和(he)華南部(bu)分(fen)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)區(qu)(qu)有(you)(you)偏重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)流行的(de)風險；紋枯(ku)病(bing)(bing)在(zai)(zai)(zai)大(da)(da)部(bu)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)區(qu)(qu)偏重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)以(yi)上程度(du)發生(sheng)；南方水(shui)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)黑條矮(ai)縮病(bing)(bing)在(zai)(zai)(zai)華南、江(jiang)(jiang)南和(he)長(chang)江(jiang)(jiang)中(zhong)游等稻(dao)(dao)(dao)區(qu)(qu)有(you)(you)回升(sheng)趨勢(shi)。
; 一、上半年(nian)水(shui)稻主要病蟲害發生(sheng)概況
今年(nian)上半年(nian), 南方稻區大部重大病蟲發生程度總體輕于上年(nian)，累(lei)計(ji)發生面(mian)積3.7億畝(mu)次。其(qi)中(zhong)，蟲害發生2.8億畝(mu)次，病害發生0.9億畝(mu)次。主要表現(xian)為如下(xia)特點：
一是“兩遷(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)”害蟲(chong)始見期(qi)早(zao)、主(zhu)遷(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)入(ru)(ru)峰(feng)偏晚、遷(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)入(ru)(ru)峰(feng)次少，長(chang)(chang)江(jiang)中(zhong)下游(you)(you)遷(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)入(ru)(ru)蟲(chong)量(liang)大，總(zong)體(ti)中(zhong)等發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)。其中(zhong)，早(zao)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)飛(fei)(fei)虱(shi)總(zong)體(ti)中(zhong)等發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)，西南(nan)(nan)東部和華南(nan)(nan)西部局部偏重(zhong)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)程度總(zong)體(ti)輕(qing)于(yu)(yu)上年(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)期(qi)，與常年(nian)(nian)(nian)接近。華南(nan)(nan)中(zhong)北部、江(jiang)南(nan)(nan)、長(chang)(chang)江(jiang)中(zhong)下游(you)(you)大部稻(dao)(dao)(dao)區(qu)(qu)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)飛(fei)(fei)虱(shi)燈下始見期(qi)較上年(nian)(nian)(nian)偏早(zao)5-15天，但(dan)主(zhu)遷(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)入(ru)(ru)峰(feng)偏晚，集中(zhong)在5月下旬(xun)至7月上旬(xun)，遷(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)入(ru)(ru)峰(feng)次較上年(nian)(nian)(nian)偏少2-3個，與常年(nian)(nian)(nian)相當；遷(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)入(ru)(ru)蟲(chong)量(liang)總(zong)體(ti)少于(yu)(yu)上年(nian)(nian)(nian)，接近常年(nian)(nian)(nian)，但(dan)褐(he)飛(fei)(fei)虱(shi)比(bi)(bi)例(li)顯著高(gao)(gao)于(yu)(yu)上年(nian)(nian)(nian)和常年(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)期(qi)。6月中(zhong)旬(xun)以來，長(chang)(chang)江(jiang)中(zhong)下游(you)(you)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)區(qu)(qu)出現3次大范圍遷(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)入(ru)(ru)，遷(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)入(ru)(ru)量(liang)明顯多于(yu)(yu)常年(nian)(nian)(nian)，且褐(he)飛(fei)(fei)虱(shi)比(bi)(bi)例(li)較高(gao)(gao)，為近年(nian)(nian)(nian)罕見。全國(guo)累計發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)1.0億(yi)畝次,同(tong)比(bi)(bi)減少10%。稻(dao)(dao)(dao)縱(zong)卷(juan)葉(xie)螟(ming)在華南(nan)(nan)大部、江(jiang)南(nan)(nan)和長(chang)(chang)江(jiang)中(zhong)下游(you)(you)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)區(qu)(qu)遷(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)入(ru)(ru)早(zao)2-5天，其中(zhong)，長(chang)(chang)江(jiang)中(zhong)下游(you)(you)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)區(qu)(qu)遷(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)入(ru)(ru)蛾量(liang)明顯高(gao)(gao)于(yu)(yu)近年(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)期(qi)，浙江(jiang)臨海局部畝蛾量(liang)超過萬(wan)頭(tou)；田(tian)間發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)程度總(zong)體(ti)重(zhong)于(yu)(yu)上年(nian)(nian)(nian)。全國(guo)累計發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)6461萬(wan)畝次,同(tong)比(bi)(bi)增加15%。
二(er)是鉆蛀性害蟲發(fa)生期提(ti)(ti)前，長(chang)江(jiang)(jiang)中(zhong)(zhong)游、西南北部(bu)和(he)江(jiang)(jiang)淮部(bu)分稻(dao)(dao)區(qu)(qu)偏重發(fa)生。二(er)化螟(ming)在全國(guo)大(da)部(bu)稻(dao)(dao)區(qu)(qu)發(fa)育(yu)進度較上年(nian)提(ti)(ti)早2-7天(tian)，長(chang)江(jiang)(jiang)中(zhong)(zhong)游、西南北部(bu)和(he)江(jiang)(jiang)淮部(bu)分稻(dao)(dao)區(qu)(qu)一代(dai)殘蟲量較高，發(fa)生程(cheng)度重于(yu)上年(nian)同期，全國(guo)累計發(fa)生9374萬畝次；三化螟(ming)在大(da)部(bu)稻(dao)(dao)區(qu)(qu)偏輕發(fa)生。全國(guo)累計發(fa)生789萬畝次；大(da)螟(ming)在長(chang)江(jiang)(jiang)中(zhong)(zhong)下游稻(dao)(dao)區(qu)(qu)回升態勢明顯。
三是流(liu)(liu)行性病(bing)害在(zai)部(bu)分稻(dao)(dao)區(qu)偏重發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng),常發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)性病(bing)害在(zai)大(da)部(bu)稻(dao)(dao)區(qu)普遍(bian)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)。稻(dao)(dao)瘟病(bing)在(zai)華(hua)南(nan)和西南(nan)部(bu)分稻(dao)(dao)區(qu)感病(bing)品種上偏重流(liu)(liu)行，程度(du)總體輕于(yu)上年(nian)(nian)(nian)，全(quan)(quan)國累(lei)計(ji)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)1539萬畝(mu)次；紋枯病(bing)在(zai)華(hua)南(nan)、江南(nan)、長江中游(you)大(da)部(bu)稻(dao)(dao)區(qu)偏重流(liu)(liu)行，與常年(nian)(nian)(nian)接近，全(quan)(quan)國累(lei)計(ji)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)7940萬畝(mu)；南(nan)方水稻(dao)(dao)黑條矮(ai)縮病(bing)在(zai)西南(nan)、華(hua)南(nan)、江南(nan)早中稻(dao)(dao)區(qu)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)程度(du)略重于(yu)上年(nian)(nian)(nian)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)面(mian)積61萬畝(mu)。
二、中晚稻主要(yao)病蟲害發生趨勢預測
（一(yi)）水稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)蟲害(hai)。以遷飛(fei)性、鉆蛀性害(hai)蟲為主(zhu)，預計發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)7.3億(yi)畝(mu)次(ci)。其中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)，稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)飛(fei)虱在江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)淮、長(chang)江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)下游、江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)南(nan)(nan)(nan)單(dan)季稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)區(qu)(qu)大(da)(da)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，華(hua)南(nan)(nan)(nan)、江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)南(nan)(nan)(nan)雙季晚稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)和西南(nan)(nan)(nan)單(dan)季稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)區(qu)(qu)偏(pian)重(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)近3.0億(yi)畝(mu)次(ci)。稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)縱(zong)卷葉螟在長(chang)江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)下游局部稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)區(qu)(qu)大(da)(da)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，華(hua)南(nan)(nan)(nan)、江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)南(nan)(nan)(nan)、西南(nan)(nan)(nan)東(dong)部稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)區(qu)(qu)偏(pian)重(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)2.1億(yi)畝(mu)次(ci)。二化螟在長(chang)江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)游、西南(nan)(nan)(nan)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)北部稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)區(qu)(qu)偏(pian)重(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)1.4億(yi)畝(mu)次(ci)；三(san)化螟在華(hua)南(nan)(nan)(nan)東(dong)南(nan)(nan)(nan)部、西南(nan)(nan)(nan)大(da)(da)部稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)區(qu)(qu)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng),發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)1800萬畝(mu)次(ci)；大(da)(da)螟在江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)淮稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)區(qu)(qu)呈發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)擴大(da)(da)、程度加重(zhong)態勢；灰飛(fei)虱、稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)苞蟲等其他蟲害(hai)在部分稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)區(qu)(qu)有一(yi)定程度發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)6500萬畝(mu)次(ci)。
（二）水稻(dao)(dao)(dao)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)害。以稻(dao)(dao)(dao)瘟(wen)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)、紋(wen)枯(ku)(ku)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)為主，預計發生(sheng)面積(ji)3.4億(yi)畝(mu)(mu)次。其(qi)中(zhong)，稻(dao)(dao)(dao)瘟(wen)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)在(zai)西(xi)(xi)南(nan)(nan)、東北(bei)大(da)部以及江(jiang)(jiang)南(nan)(nan)、華南(nan)(nan)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)區(qu)中(zhong)等發生(sheng)，局部老(lao)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)區(qu)、感病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)品種(zhong)上有大(da)流行(xing)風險，發生(sheng)面積(ji)6000萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)次；紋(wen)枯(ku)(ku)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)在(zai)全(quan)國(guo)大(da)部稻(dao)(dao)(dao)區(qu)偏重以上程度發生(sheng)，發生(sheng)面積(ji)1.9億(yi)畝(mu)(mu)；南(nan)(nan)方水稻(dao)(dao)(dao)黑條矮縮病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)在(zai)華南(nan)(nan)、江(jiang)(jiang)南(nan)(nan)和長江(jiang)(jiang)中(zhong)游等稻(dao)(dao)(dao)區(qu)有回(hui)升趨(qu)勢，發生(sheng)面積(ji)650萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)；稻(dao)(dao)(dao)曲病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)在(zai)長江(jiang)(jiang)中(zhong)下(xia)游及西(xi)(xi)南(nan)(nan)、江(jiang)(jiang)南(nan)(nan)和東北(bei)部分稻(dao)(dao)(dao)區(qu)偏重流行(xing)，發生(sheng)面積(ji)5000萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)；水稻(dao)(dao)(dao)白葉枯(ku)(ku)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)、水稻(dao)(dao)(dao)惡苗病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)、水稻(dao)(dao)(dao)赤枯(ku)(ku)病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)等其(qi)他病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)害在(zai)部分稻(dao)(dao)(dao)區(qu)有一定程度發生(sheng)，發生(sheng)面積(ji)3000萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)。
三(san)、 預測主要依據
（一(yi)(yi)(yi)）病(bing)蟲(chong)發生(sheng)(sheng)基數偏高(gao)(gao)。當前，中稻(dao)(dao)(dao)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)飛(fei)虱在西(xi)南(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)南(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)部(bu)(bu)(bu)和東(dong)部(bu)(bu)(bu)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)百叢蟲(chong)量(liang)一(yi)(yi)(yi)般(ban)(ban)1000-2000頭，西(xi)南(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)北(bei)部(bu)(bu)(bu)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)500-1000頭,江(jiang)南(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)500頭左(zuo)右，長(chang)(chang)江(jiang)下(xia)游稻(dao)(dao)(dao)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)大(da)(da)多為近5年(nian)(nian)(nian)最高(gao)(gao)，沿江(jiang)部(bu)(bu)(bu)分地區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)高(gao)(gao)于大(da)(da)發生(sheng)(sheng)的(de)2005年(nian)(nian)(nian)。南(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)方(fang)大(da)(da)部(bu)(bu)(bu)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)田間褐(he)飛(fei)虱比例高(gao)(gao)于常年(nian)(nian)(nian)，長(chang)(chang)江(jiang)下(xia)游局(ju)(ju)部(bu)(bu)(bu)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)已查見褐(he)飛(fei)虱短翅型成蟲(chong)，明顯早于常年(nian)(nian)(nian)。稻(dao)(dao)(dao)縱(zong)卷葉螟(ming)在長(chang)(chang)江(jiang)中下(xia)游稻(dao)(dao)(dao)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)遷入(ru)量(liang)明顯高(gao)(gao)于近年(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)期，安徽(hui)無(wu)為縣局(ju)(ju)部(bu)(bu)(bu)為近10年(nian)(nian)(nian)罕見;田間蟲(chong)卵(luan)量(liang)大(da)(da)部(bu)(bu)(bu)高(gao)(gao)于常年(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)期,畝幼蟲(chong)量(liang)一(yi)(yi)(yi)般(ban)(ban)3000-9000頭。隨(sui)著華(hua)南(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)、江(jiang)南(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)早稻(dao)(dao)(dao)收割(ge)和蟲(chong)源遷入(ru)，中晚(wan)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)田間“兩遷”害(hai)蟲(chong)蟲(chong)量(liang)將進(jin)一(yi)(yi)(yi)步上升。二化螟(ming)在西(xi)南(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)中北(bei)部(bu)(bu)(bu)、江(jiang)南(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)、長(chang)(chang)江(jiang)中游等稻(dao)(dao)(dao)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)畝殘留蟲(chong)量(liang)一(yi)(yi)(yi)般(ban)(ban)1000-2500頭，與(yu)近年(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)期相當。當前，稻(dao)(dao)(dao)瘟病(bing)在西(xi)南(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)、江(jiang)南(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)、東(dong)北(bei)部(bu)(bu)(bu)分稻(dao)(dao)(dao)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)感病(bing)品種上擴展(zhan)較快(kuai)，局(ju)(ju)部(bu)(bu)(bu)田塊出現(xian)了急性型病(bing)斑(ban)。南(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)方(fang)水(shui)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)黑條矮縮病(bing)在華(hua)南(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)、江(jiang)南(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)、西(xi)南(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)發生(sheng)(sheng)點多面廣，為中晚(wan)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)病(bing)害(hai)的(de)發生(sheng)(sheng)提(ti)供(gong)了較充足的(de)毒源。
（二）水稻(dao)(dao)耕作制(zhi)度(du)有(you)(you)利(li)于(yu)病(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)發生(sheng)(sheng)危害(hai)(hai)。華南、江南和長江中下游稻(dao)(dao)區單、雙季稻(dao)(dao)混栽(zai)(zai)格局(ju)沒有(you)(you)出現根本改變，栽(zai)(zai)插期不一、橋梁田較多，有(you)(you)利(li)于(yu)“兩遷”害(hai)(hai)蟲(chong)(chong)、水稻(dao)(dao)螟蟲(chong)(chong)等遷移擴散和輾轉為(wei)害(hai)(hai)；水稻(dao)(dao)主(zhu)栽(zai)(zai)品種以粗(cu)稈(gan)大(da)(da)穗、優質高(gao)產(chan)型為(wei)主(zhu)，生(sheng)(sheng)長量大(da)(da)、田間郁(yu)蔽，易形成適溫高(gao)濕的田間小氣候，有(you)(you)利(li)于(yu)稻(dao)(dao)飛虱、紋(wen)枯病(bing)等重(zhong)大(da)(da)病(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)發生(sheng)(sheng)危害(hai)(hai)。同時，大(da)(da)部(bu)水稻(dao)(dao)品種抗病(bing)性較差，且東(dong)北地區同質資源(yuan)品種大(da)(da)面積種植(zhi)等，有(you)(you)利(li)于(yu)稻(dao)(dao)瘟病(bing)、稻(dao)(dao)曲病(bing)等病(bing)害(hai)(hai)發生(sheng)(sheng)流行(xing)。
（三）氣候條(tiao)件對病(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)發生(sheng)較為有(you)(you)(you)利。近(jin)期，江(jiang)(jiang)南(nan)(nan)(nan)、長江(jiang)(jiang)流域、西南(nan)(nan)(nan)等大部(bu)地區出現過(guo)程(cheng)性降(jiang)雨(yu)天氣，雨(yu)日、雨(yu)量較常年明顯偏多，不僅(jin)加劇了紋(wen)枯(ku)病(bing)(bing)、稻(dao)瘟病(bing)(bing)等擴展流行，也有(you)(you)(you)利于(yu)“兩(liang)遷”害蟲(chong)由(you)華南(nan)(nan)(nan)、江(jiang)(jiang)南(nan)(nan)(nan)早稻(dao)區向中(zhong)晚稻(dao)區遷飛擴散(san)危害。據(ju)國(guo)(guo)家氣候中(zhong)心預測(ce)，汛(xun)期我(wo)國(guo)(guo)旱澇(lao)并重，降(jiang)水呈顯著的(de)階段性特征雨(yu)帶，其中(zhong)東(dong)北地區、江(jiang)(jiang)淮東(dong)部(bu)、西南(nan)(nan)(nan)大部(bu)、華南(nan)(nan)(nan)南(nan)(nan)(nan)部(bu)降(jiang)水偏多，有(you)(you)(you)利于(yu)水稻(dao)稻(dao)瘟病(bing)(bing)、紋(wen)枯(ku)病(bing)(bing)的(de)擴散(san)蔓延(yan)和(he)“兩(liang)遷”害蟲(chong)的(de)發生(sheng)繁殖；另外，夏季將有(you)(you)(you)4-5個臺(tai)風在東(dong)南(nan)(nan)(nan)沿海登陸或影響我(wo)國(guo)(guo)，對水稻(dao)病(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)尤其是“兩(liang)遷”害蟲(chong)遷移危害十分有(you)(you)(you)利。
（病蟲害測報處）
