根(gen)據我省(sheng)二代粘蟲幼蟲發(fa)(fa)生及各(ge)地燈下誘蛾情況，結合(he)三(san)代粘蟲歷年發(fa)(fa)生規律及氣候(hou)趨勢預(yu)測綜(zong)合(he)分析，預(yu)計今(jin)年三(san)代粘蟲在我省(sheng)總(zong)體偏重(zhong)，局部(bu)(bu)大(da)發(fa)(fa)生，發(fa)(fa)生程(cheng)度重(zhong)于常年，局部(bu)(bu)有出現高密(mi)度幼蟲集(ji)中為害的(de)可(ke)能，防治適期在8月(yue)上旬(xun)末(mo)至中旬(xun)。
一、預報依據
1、蟲源基數高，見蟲面積大
今年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)二(er)代(dai)(dai)粘蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)在我(wo)省(sheng)發(fa)生面(mian)積(ji)(ji)大(da)，范圍廣，危(wei)害(hai)(hai)程(cheng)度重，為近二(er)十年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)罕見，全(quan)(quan)省(sheng)發(fa)生面(mian)積(ji)(ji)572萬(wan)畝(mu)。據統(tong)計(ji)，作物被害(hai)(hai)株(zhu)(zhu)率(lv)在15%-30%，百(bai)株(zhu)(zhu)有蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)30-50頭(tou)(tou)的面(mian)積(ji)(ji)有240萬(wan)畝(mu)；被害(hai)(hai)株(zhu)(zhu)率(lv)在30%-50%，百(bai)株(zhu)(zhu)有蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)50-100頭(tou)(tou)的面(mian)積(ji)(ji)有236萬(wan)畝(mu)；作物被害(hai)(hai)株(zhu)(zhu)率(lv)在50%以上(shang)(shang)(shang)，百(bai)株(zhu)(zhu)有蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)100頭(tou)(tou)以上(shang)(shang)(shang)的面(mian)積(ji)(ji)有96萬(wan)畝(mu)。大(da)同(tong)、朔(shuo)州、忻州、呂梁、長治、晉中(zhong)、陽(yang)泉均(jun)有發(fa)生面(mian)積(ji)(ji)千畝(mu)以上(shang)(shang)(shang)，百(bai)株(zhu)(zhu)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)量(liang)500頭(tou)(tou)以上(shang)(shang)(shang)的重發(fa)區。全(quan)(quan)省(sheng)二(er)代(dai)(dai)成蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)7月(yue)11日(ri)始見（南部(bu)鹽(yan)(yan)湖(hu)區），較上(shang)(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)提(ti)前(qian)6天(tian)，而中(zhong)部(bu)和(he)北(bei)部(bu)始見期較上(shang)(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)推(tui)遲3-4天(tian)。截止7月(yue)28日(ri)15個省(sheng)級中(zhong)心測報(bao)站燈(deng)下(xia)誘(you)(you)蛾(e)(e)327頭(tou)(tou)，比(bi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)高(gao)137%，比(bi)近5年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)均(jun)值高(gao)554%。目前(qian)各地(di)(di)沒有明顯(xian)(xian)蛾(e)(e)峰(feng)，日(ri)單燈(deng)誘(you)(you)蛾(e)(e)量(liang)萬(wan)榮14日(ri)單燈(deng)誘(you)(you)蛾(e)(e)17頭(tou)(tou)，15日(ri)誘(you)(you)蛾(e)(e)15頭(tou)(tou)，鹽(yan)(yan)湖(hu)區15日(ri)、27日(ri)各誘(you)(you)蛾(e)(e)15頭(tou)(tou)。另據全(quan)(quan)國農(nong)技(ji)推(tui)廣服(fu)務中(zhong)心測報(bao)處通報(bao)，7月(yue)下(xia)旬(xun)以來(lai)，我(wo)省(sheng)周邊(bian)北(bei)京、河北(bei)、河南等多(duo)地(di)(di)燈(deng)下(xia)出現明顯(xian)(xian)蛾(e)(e)峰(feng)，二(er)代(dai)(dai)成蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)累(lei)(lei)計(ji)誘(you)(you)蛾(e)(e)量(liang)最高(gao)達1824頭(tou)(tou)。中(zhong)國農(nong)科院(yuan)植保所(suo)雷(lei)達監(jian)測點高(gao)空(kong)探照燈(deng)誘(you)(you)測，二(er)代(dai)(dai)成蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)誘(you)(you)蛾(e)(e)量(liang)顯(xian)(xian)著高(gao)于常年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)和(he)上(shang)(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)期。其中(zhong)，北(bei)京延慶7月(yue)18日(ri)、19日(ri)單晚誘(you)(you)蛾(e)(e)量(liang)分(fen)別為8565頭(tou)(tou)、21254頭(tou)(tou)；7月(yue)中(zhong)旬(xun)累(lei)(lei)計(ji)誘(you)(you)蛾(e)(e)量(liang)36176頭(tou)(tou)，是(shi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)期的2.1倍。山東長島截至7月(yue)25日(ri)二(er)代(dai)(dai)成蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)累(lei)(lei)計(ji)誘(you)(you)蛾(e)(e)4241頭(tou)(tou)，是(shi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)期的4.1倍；且(qie)雌(ci)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)多(duo)于雄蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)，卵巢發(fa)育(yu)級別較低，適合遠距離遷飛和(he)危(wei)害(hai)(hai)。目前(qian)東北(bei)大(da)部(bu)地(di)(di)區已(yi)經查見三代(dai)(dai)卵和(he)低齡幼蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)。
2、氣象條件 據省(sheng)氣候中(zhong)心預測，8月(yue)，全(quan)省(sheng)降水量在70～140毫米之間。與常(chang)年同期(qi)相比(bi)，北(bei)、中(zhong)部(bu)大部(bu)分(fen)地(di)(di)區偏多(duo)1～2成(cheng)，南部(bu)大部(bu)分(fen)地(di)(di)區偏少1～2成(cheng)。月(yue)平均(jun)氣溫，大部(bu)分(fen)地(di)(di)區較常(chang)年略偏高。偏多(duo)的降雨有(you)利于(yu)粘蟲成(cheng)蟲的遷入和滯留，并對(dui)卵(luan)和幼蟲的孵化(hua)發(fa)育有(you)利。溫度略偏高將縮(suo)短粘蟲發(fa)育歷期(qi)。
3、生態(tai)因(yin)素 目前全(quan)省大(da)秋(qiu)作(zuo)物長勢良好(hao)，且生長中后期植株高大(da)、田間(jian)郁閉(bi)，寄(ji)主營養條件(jian)和田間(jian)生態(tai)條件(jian)有(you)利(li)于粘蟲的發生為害。
二、防治建議
1、加強(qiang)監(jian)測與防控工(gong)作的組織領導(dao)
粘蟲是一種遷飛性、暴(bao)發性害蟲，各地植保部(bu)門應(ying)(ying)高度重視，把粘蟲監(jian)測和防(fang)控工作(zuo)(zuo)作(zuo)(zuo)為奪取全(quan)年大秋作(zuo)(zuo)物豐收的重要措施來抓(zhua)，切實加強(qiang)組織領導，加大行政推(tui)動力(li)度，責任(ren)到(dao)人(ren)，積極作(zuo)(zuo)好應(ying)(ying)急防(fang)控物資、資金、隊伍(wu)儲備，根據蟲情動態(tai)適時啟動應(ying)(ying)急預案(an)，采取專業化統(tong)防(fang)統(tong)治(zhi)和群(qun)防(fang)群(qun)治(zhi)相結合的措施，及時控制暴(bao)發危害，努力(li)將損失(shi)控制在最(zui)低水(shui)平。
2、加強技(ji)術指導，綜合防控
各地要強(qiang)化(hua)(hua)(hua)宣(xuan)傳發(fa)動，指導農民適時防控。防治中要嚴把“三(san)關”，即捕蛾于(yu)產(chan)卵(luan)(luan)前(qian)，滅(mie)卵(luan)(luan)于(yu)孵(fu)化(hua)(hua)(hua)前(qian)，藥劑防治于(yu)三(san)齡(ling)前(qian)。（1）成(cheng)蟲(chong)(chong)發(fa)生(sheng)期，利用(yong)頻振式殺蟲(chong)(chong)燈、黑光燈、糖醋液等(deng)誘殺成(cheng)蟲(chong)(chong)。（2）成(cheng)蟲(chong)(chong)產(chan)卵(luan)(luan)期，在(zai)(zai)田間插楊(yang)樹枝把、谷草把等(deng)引誘成(cheng)蟲(chong)(chong)產(chan)卵(luan)(luan)，在(zai)(zai)卵(luan)(luan)孵(fu)化(hua)(hua)(hua)前(qian)集中燒(shao)毀。（3）幼(you)蟲(chong)(chong)發(fa)生(sheng)期，在(zai)(zai)三(san)齡(ling)前(qian)施藥，每(mei)畝可選用(yong)50%辛硫磷乳油或80%敵敵畏乳油或40%毒死蜱乳油75-100毫(hao)升(sheng)加水50千克，或20%滅(mie)幼(you)脲3號懸浮劑或25%氰・辛乳油20～30毫(hao)升(sheng)或4.5%高(gao)效氯氰菊酯(zhi)50毫(hao)升(sheng)加水30千克均(jun)勻噴霧。
