當前，華南(nan)、江南(nan)晚稻(dao)正處(chu)于(yu)分蘗期(qi)，江南(nan)一季中(zhong)(zhong)稻(dao)和(he)東北單(dan)季稻(dao)處(chu)于(yu)灌漿(jiang)乳熟期(qi)，長江中(zhong)(zhong)下游單(dan)季晚稻(dao)處(chu)于(yu)孕穗(sui)(sui)至(zhi)抽(chou)穗(sui)(sui)揚花期(qi)。田間病蟲害(hai)總體中(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)至(zhi)偏重(zhong)發(fa)生，其(qi)中(zhong)(zhong)稻(dao)縱卷葉螟、二(er)化(hua)螟、稻(dao)瘟(wen)病、紋枯(ku)病發(fa)生程(cheng)(cheng)度重(zhong)于(yu)上(shang)年,稻(dao)飛虱(shi)及其(qi)傳播(bo)的(de)病毒(du)病發(fa)生程(cheng)(cheng)度輕于(yu)上(shang)年。預計(ji)下階段“兩遷(qian)”害(hai)蟲、稻(dao)瘟(wen)病、稻(dao)紋枯(ku)病等(deng)病蟲害(hai)重(zhong)發(fa)風險仍然(ran)較(jiao)大。各地需高度重(zhong)視，加強監(jian)測預警，實(shi)施分類(lei)指(zhi)導，采(cai)取有效措施，減輕病蟲危害(hai)。
一、當前(qian)水稻(dao)病蟲發(fa)生動(dong)態
1．“兩遷(qian)”害蟲總(zong)體中等，局部(bu)偏重(zhong)發生。
稻(dao)(dao)飛虱在(zai)華南、西(xi)南、江(jiang)(jiang)南中(zhong)(zhong)稻(dao)(dao)區(qu)(qu)總體中(zhong)(zhong)等，局部(bu)(bu)偏重發(fa)生，長(chang)(chang)江(jiang)(jiang)中(zhong)(zhong)下(xia)游單季(ji)晚(wan)稻(dao)(dao)區(qu)(qu)偏輕(qing)至中(zhong)(zhong)等發(fa)生，發(fa)生程度輕(qing)于(yu)上年(nian)同(tong)期。累(lei)計發(fa)生面積1.88億(yi)畝次(ci)，同(tong)比減少(shao)3.6%。受近期降雨(yu)偏多(duo)(duo)影響，江(jiang)(jiang)南稻(dao)(dao)區(qu)(qu)監測(ce)到較大誘(you)蟲(chong)(chong)峰，福(fu)建中(zhong)(zhong)北部(bu)(bu)、江(jiang)(jiang)西(xi)南部(bu)(bu)、湖南西(xi)南部(bu)(bu)多(duo)(duo)地(di)(di)(di)單燈單日誘(you)蟲(chong)(chong)量(liang)超千頭(tou)(tou)，福(fu)建霞浦最高(gao)3萬多(duo)(duo)頭(tou)(tou)。田間(jian)蟲(chong)(chong)量(liang)總體少(shao)于(yu)上年(nian)同(tong)期，江(jiang)(jiang)南、西(xi)南中(zhong)(zhong)稻(dao)(dao)區(qu)(qu)平均百叢蟲(chong)(chong)量(liang)在(zai)300-1000頭(tou)(tou)，部(bu)(bu)分(fen)(fen)地(di)(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)1500-3000頭(tou)(tou)；華南、江(jiang)(jiang)南晚(wan)稻(dao)(dao)和長(chang)(chang)江(jiang)(jiang)中(zhong)(zhong)下(xia)游單季(ji)晚(wan)稻(dao)(dao)百叢蟲(chong)(chong)量(liang)在(zai)100-500頭(tou)(tou)，部(bu)(bu)分(fen)(fen)地(di)(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)1000-2000頭(tou)(tou)。短(duan)翅型(xing)成蟲(chong)(chong)數量(liang)偏高(gao)，江(jiang)(jiang)南中(zhong)(zhong)稻(dao)(dao)區(qu)(qu)百叢蟲(chong)(chong)量(liang)一(yi)般在(zai)20-40頭(tou)(tou)，部(bu)(bu)分(fen)(fen)地(di)(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)50-70頭(tou)(tou)，浙江(jiang)(jiang)松陽(yang)高(gao)達124頭(tou)(tou)；長(chang)(chang)江(jiang)(jiang)中(zhong)(zhong)下(xia)游單季(ji)晚(wan)稻(dao)(dao)區(qu)(qu)觀測(ce)圃一(yi)般在(zai)10-20頭(tou)(tou)，占成蟲(chong)(chong)比例的50%-80%，屬(shu)近年(nian)來偏高(gao)年(nian)份(fen)。
稻縱卷(juan)葉(xie)螟在(zai)西南、江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)南和長江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)中(zhong)(zhong)下游稻區總體(ti)中(zhong)(zhong)等發(fa)(fa)生，其中(zhong)(zhong)，江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)南南部(bu)、西南東部(bu)局(ju)部(bu)偏(pian)重(zhong)發(fa)(fa)生，發(fa)(fa)生程(cheng)度(du)重(zhong)于(yu)上年，接近(jin)常年，累計發(fa)(fa)生面積(ji)1.43萬畝(mu)，同比增加4.1%。當前，田(tian)(tian)間蛾、卵、幼蟲(chong)共存，世(shi)代重(zhong)疊嚴(yan)重(zhong)。華南、西南、江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)南中(zhong)(zhong)稻區畝(mu)蛾量一般(ban)在(zai)50-500頭(tou)，部(bu)分(fen)地(di)區600-1000頭(tou)；畝(mu)幼蟲(chong)量一般(ban)在(zai)2000-9000頭(tou)，部(bu)分(fen)地(di)區3-4萬頭(tou)，高于(yu)上年同期；田(tian)(tian)間危(wei)害重(zhong)于(yu)上年，卷(juan)葉(xie)率一般(ban)2%-9%。長江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)中(zhong)(zhong)下游單季晚稻區田(tian)(tian)間蟲(chong)卵量略低(di)(di)于(yu)上年同期，為害造成(cheng)的卷(juan)葉(xie)率一般(ban)低(di)(di)于(yu)1%。
2.鉆蛀性螟蟲發生較為平穩，發生程度略重于上年同期。
二化(hua)螟(ming)在江南(nan)(nan)和長(chang)江中(zhong)游稻(dao)(dao)(dao)區總體中(zhong)等發生(sheng)，略重于(yu)上年(nian)，累計發生(sheng)面積(ji)(ji)1.53億(yi)畝次，與上年(nian)同(tong)(tong)期(qi)相當。當前，江南(nan)(nan)、長(chang)江中(zhong)游稻(dao)(dao)(dao)區二化(hua)螟(ming)陸續進入(ru)三代幼(you)蟲為害期(qi)，田間畝幼(you)蟲量一(yi)般(ban)在200-1600頭，中(zhong)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)區枯心率(lv)、白穗率(lv)一(yi)般(ban)低(di)于(yu)1.2%，單(dan)季晚(wan)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)區枯鞘株(zhu)率(lv)一(yi)般(ban)低(di)于(yu)3%。三化(hua)螟(ming)在華南(nan)(nan)、西南(nan)(nan)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)區偏(pian)輕發生(sheng)，輕于(yu)上年(nian)同(tong)(tong)期(qi)，累計發生(sheng)面積(ji)(ji)951萬畝，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)減少19%。大(da)螟(ming)在長(chang)江中(zhong)下游稻(dao)(dao)(dao)區回升態勢(shi)明顯，江蘇(su)局部列2001年(nian)以來1-3位(wei)，上海大(da)螟(ming)發生(sheng)面積(ji)(ji)已(yi)超過種(zhong)植面積(ji)(ji)50%。
3．水稻流行性病害擴展(zhan)速度快，重于上(shang)年同期。
稻(dao)(dao)瘟病(bing)(bing)在(zai)江(jiang)(jiang)南(nan)(nan)、長江(jiang)(jiang)中(zhong)下游稻(dao)(dao)區(qu)總體(ti)中(zhong)等發生，重(zhong)于(yu)(yu)(yu)上(shang)年(nian)同期，東(dong)北稻(dao)(dao)區(qu)偏輕(qing)發生，輕(qing)于(yu)(yu)(yu)上(shang)年(nian)，累計發生面積3717萬畝，同比增(zeng)加17.7%。江(jiang)(jiang)南(nan)(nan)稻(dao)(dao)區(qu)中(zhong)稻(dao)(dao)病(bing)(bing)葉率(lv)(lv)一(yi)(yi)(yi)般(ban)(ban)(ban)在(zai)1%-5%，江(jiang)(jiang)西豐城、吉(ji)安、南(nan)(nan)城等地較高，病(bing)(bing)葉率(lv)(lv)為(wei)(wei)10.8%-33.4%，嚴重(zhong)田(tian)塊(kuai)已經“坐蔸”；病(bing)(bing)穗(sui)率(lv)(lv)一(yi)(yi)(yi)般(ban)(ban)(ban)低(di)于(yu)(yu)(yu)5%。長江(jiang)(jiang)中(zhong)下游單季晚稻(dao)(dao)病(bing)(bing)葉率(lv)(lv)一(yi)(yi)(yi)般(ban)(ban)(ban)低(di)于(yu)(yu)(yu)3%，但局部(bu)防治不力田(tian)塊(kuai)病(bing)(bing)葉率(lv)(lv)高達30%-60%，明顯重(zhong)于(yu)(yu)(yu)常年(nian)，江(jiang)(jiang)蘇、浙江(jiang)(jiang)大部(bu)地區(qu)為(wei)(wei)近十(shi)年(nian)來最重(zhong)。華南(nan)(nan)、江(jiang)(jiang)南(nan)(nan)雙(shuang)季晚稻(dao)(dao)稻(dao)(dao)瘟病(bing)(bing)擴(kuo)展速度較快，病(bing)(bing)葉率(lv)(lv)一(yi)(yi)(yi)般(ban)(ban)(ban)在(zai)0.5%-3%，部(bu)分地區(qu)10%-15%。
紋枯病(bing)(bing)在江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)南(nan)、長(chang)江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)中(zhong)下(xia)(xia)游(you)(you)稻區(qu)中(zhong)等至偏重發(fa)生(sheng)，明顯重于(yu)上年(nian)同(tong)期，累計發(fa)生(sheng)面積1.93億畝次(ci)，同(tong)比(bi)增加6.4%。據調度，江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)南(nan)中(zhong)稻區(qu)紋枯病(bing)(bing)病(bing)(bing)情基本穩定，總體偏重發(fa)生(sheng)，病(bing)(bing)叢(cong)率(lv)一般(ban)在20%-50%，較(jiao)上年(nian)同(tong)期偏高5%左(zuo)右(you)，高的田塊(kuai)病(bing)(bing)叢(cong)率(lv)達100%。受近期降水偏多影響，江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)南(nan)晚(wan)稻、長(chang)江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)中(zhong)下(xia)(xia)游(you)(you)單(dan)季(ji)晚(wan)稻區(qu)紋枯病(bing)(bing)擴(kuo)展迅速，其中(zhong)長(chang)江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)中(zhong)下(xia)(xia)游(you)(you)單(dan)季(ji)晚(wan)稻病(bing)(bing)叢(cong)率(lv)一般(ban)在25%-45%，局部屬2007年(nian)來最重；江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)南(nan)晚(wan)稻病(bing)(bing)叢(cong)率(lv)一般(ban)在5%-20%。
4.水稻病毒(du)病總體偏輕發生(sheng)，局部發生(sheng)較重，輕于上年。
南(nan)方水稻(dao)(dao)黑條矮縮(suo)病在華(hua)南(nan)、西(xi)南(nan)和(he)(he)江南(nan)稻(dao)(dao)區(qu)(qu)輕(qing)發生，輕(qing)于(yu)近兩(liang)年，累計(ji)發生面積83.81萬畝(mu)，同比減少40.4%。各地病叢率(lv)一般低于(yu)3%，廣西(xi)中部、云南(nan)西(xi)南(nan)部、江西(xi)南(nan)部局部田塊較高，病叢率(lv)為10%-20%，江西(xi)蓮(lian)花最(zui)高達(da)48%。由灰(hui)飛虱傳播的水稻(dao)(dao)條紋(wen)葉枯病和(he)(he)水稻(dao)(dao)黑條矮縮(suo)病總(zong)體(ti)輕(qing)發生，但河南(nan)沿黃稻(dao)(dao)區(qu)(qu)局部水稻(dao)(dao)黑條矮縮(suo)病發生較重。
二、下階段發生趨勢
據國家氣(qi)象中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)心預(yu)報(bao)，未來十天，江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)南(nan)(nan)北(bei)部和(he)長(chang)(chang)江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)游(you)(you)降雨偏(pian)(pian)(pian)多，適溫高濕的(de)田間小(xiao)氣(qi)候對“兩遷”害蟲的(de)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)繁殖和(he)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)瘟病(bing)(bing)(bing)、稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)紋(wen)枯病(bing)(bing)(bing)等病(bing)(bing)(bing)害的(de)流行非(fei)常(chang)有利。結合當(dang)前病(bing)(bing)(bing)蟲害發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)基數(shu)分析，預(yu)計下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)階(jie)段(duan)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)飛虱在(zai)華(hua)南(nan)(nan)、江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)南(nan)(nan)、長(chang)(chang)江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)游(you)(you)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)區(qu)仍將偏(pian)(pian)(pian)重發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，局部大(da)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)；稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)縱卷葉螟在(zai)江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)南(nan)(nan)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)區(qu)偏(pian)(pian)(pian)重發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，華(hua)南(nan)(nan)、長(chang)(chang)江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)游(you)(you)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)區(qu)總(zong)體中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等，局部偏(pian)(pian)(pian)重發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)；二化(hua)螟在(zai)江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)南(nan)(nan)、長(chang)(chang)江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)游(you)(you)和(he)江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)淮稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)區(qu)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，局部偏(pian)(pian)(pian)重發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)；稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)瘟病(bing)(bing)(bing)在(zai)江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)南(nan)(nan)、西南(nan)(nan)、長(chang)(chang)江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)游(you)(you)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)區(qu)將中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，局部老(lao)病(bing)(bing)(bing)區(qu)及感病(bing)(bing)(bing)品種將偏(pian)(pian)(pian)重流行；紋(wen)枯病(bing)(bing)(bing)在(zai)華(hua)南(nan)(nan)、江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)南(nan)(nan)、長(chang)(chang)江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)游(you)(you)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)區(qu)將偏(pian)(pian)(pian)重至大(da)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)；稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)曲病(bing)(bing)(bing)在(zai)江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)南(nan)(nan)、長(chang)(chang)江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)下(xia)(xia)(xia)(xia)游(you)(you)晚稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)區(qu)將中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，局部偏(pian)(pian)(pian)重發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)；南(nan)(nan)方水(shui)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)黑條矮縮病(bing)(bing)(bing)在(zai)華(hua)南(nan)(nan)、江(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)南(nan)(nan)晚稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)區(qu)將陸續顯癥，總(zong)體輕發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)。
請各級植保機構高度重視，堅持做到“秋糧一天不到手，監測工作一天不放松”，認真執行測報調查制度，加強監測預警，實施分類指導，提高防控效果；及時調查報送病蟲害發生信息，及時反映病蟲害發生防治動態；充分利用廣播、電視、網絡和手機等現代媒體，加大預報信息的發布服務力度，提高預報信息的覆蓋面，發揮預報信息在病蟲防控中的指導作用。
