2017年春季種子市場在(zai)糧價(jia)低迷(mi)和農(nong)戶對種植結(jie)構(gou)調整(zheng)思(si)量中(zhong)徐緩開啟。截至2月24日全國種子(zi)鋪貨和市場零售(shou)終端信息(xi)觀察(cha)點顯示(shi)，種子(zi)供應充足，銷售(shou)品(pin)種多，作物分化(hua)明顯，價(jia)格漲跌不一(yi)。預計(ji)在(zai)農(nong)產(chan)品(pin)價(jia)格形成機制(zhi)市場化(hua)和種子(zi)總體(ti)供大于求的背景下，種子(zi)市場競爭將比(bi)去(qu)年更加激(ji)烈(lie)，中(zhong)后(hou)期價(jia)格可能出現一(yi)定波(bo)動。
一(yi)、玉米
非優(you)勢(shi)(shi)(shi)區面積調減趨(qu)勢(shi)(shi)(shi)明顯，優(you)勢(shi)(shi)(shi)區觀望(wang)氣氛濃厚(hou)，市場低迷，價(jia)格總體走(zou)低，種子供過于求(qiu)。
市(shi)場啟動晚、銷售(shou)進度慢。東華北和黃淮海區(qu)，農民(min)對(dui)調整種(zhong)(zhong)植作(zuo)物猶豫觀望，購種(zhong)(zhong)時期推遲(chi)，盡管(guan)種(zhong)(zhong)子企業(ye)、經銷商(shang)和零售(shou)商(shang)推銷力(li)度大于往年(nian)，種(zhong)(zhong)子銷售(shou)終端市(shi)場依然冷(leng)清，目前種(zhong)(zhong)子入戶率不足30%，明顯滯(zhi)后(hou)往年(nian)。
供遠(yuan)大于(yu)求、品種數(shu)量多。種子(zi)有(you)效供給(gei)總量在20億(yi)公斤(jin)以上(shang)，遠(yuan)遠(yuan)超過11億(yi)公斤(jin)的用種需求。市場上(shang)新審定(ding)和同一生態區引種的品種數(shu)量猛增，銷(xiao)售品種總數(shu)高達(da)1500多個，農民選(xuan)種難度加(jia)大，市場競爭激(ji)烈(lie)。
品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)價(jia)格(ge)(ge)差異大、區域分化明顯。品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)間價(jia)格(ge)(ge)分化較大，以公(gong)斤(jin)(jin)計(ji)量的(de)(de)(de)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)(zi)15-70元(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)斤(jin)(jin)、以袋(dai)計(ji)量畝用種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)(zi)30-80元(yuan)(yuan)/袋(dai)。東華北春玉(yu)米區，受玉(yu)米低(di)價(jia)收購影(ying)響，種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)(zi)價(jia)格(ge)(ge)下(xia)(xia)滑趨勢明顯。在剛啟動的(de)(de)(de)吉林種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)(zi)市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)上(shang)，一(yi)些經(jing)銷商(shang)為降(jiang)低(di)庫存、盤(pan)活資金進行甩貨，對一(yi)些品(pin)牌品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)銷售(shou)價(jia)格(ge)(ge)形成(cheng)壓(ya)制(zhi)。還處在種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)(zi)鋪貨階段(duan)的(de)(de)(de)黑龍江，種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)(zi)價(jia)格(ge)(ge)有(you)20%-30%的(de)(de)(de)下(xia)(xia)滑幅度。遼寧(ning)早熟區種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)(zi)價(jia)格(ge)(ge)為30.34元(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)斤(jin)(jin)，同比下(xia)(xia)降(jiang)6.90%。市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)主導品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)先玉(yu)335、京科968、鄭單(dan)958，種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)(zi)價(jia)格(ge)(ge)分別為57元(yuan)(yuan)/袋(dai)·畝、40元(yuan)(yuan)/袋(dai)·畝、35元(yuan)(yuan)/袋(dai)·畝，均(jun)出現5%-10%的(de)(de)(de)下(xia)(xia)滑幅度。西(xi)南春玉(yu)米區，種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)(zi)銷售(shou)相對活躍。四川(chuan)、重慶(qing)、云南種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)(zi)價(jia)格(ge)(ge)分別為31.13元(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)斤(jin)(jin)、35.82元(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)斤(jin)(jin)、29.94元(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)斤(jin)(jin)，同比基本持(chi)平(ping)。
二、水(shui)稻(dao)
種(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)市場啟動(dong)正常、運行平(ping)穩，但雜交稻種(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)中(zhong)后(hou)期(qi)可能出現價格下滑波(bo)動(dong)。
常規稻(dao)。北方(fang)稻(dao)區種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)零(ling)(ling)售終端市(shi)場(chang)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)供應充(chong)足(zu)，企業(ye)鋪貨基本穩(wen)定，鋪貨進度與去年同期基本一致(zhi)，預計有(you)水(shui)(shui)源等(deng)條件的玉米主產區，農民將(jiang)(jiang)設法改種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)水(shui)(shui)稻(dao)，因此水(shui)(shui)稻(dao)面積將(jiang)(jiang)有(you)所擴(kuo)大，種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)市(shi)場(chang)價(jia)格將(jiang)(jiang)穩(wen)中有(you)升(sheng)。南方(fang)稻(dao)區，對早(zao)熟、直(zhi)播及優質(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)特別是(shi)糯質(zhi)品種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)的購買(mai)需求(qiu)旺盛，品質(zhi)優良的品種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)批發價(jia)格有(you)所上(shang)升(sheng)，普通品種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)略有(you)降價(jia)。在零(ling)(ling)售市(shi)場(chang)活躍的廣(guang)西，優質(zhi)常規稻(dao)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)價(jia)格28.41元(yuan)/公斤(jin)，同比增長11.35%
雜交(jiao)(jiao)稻(dao)(dao)。零(ling)售終端市場如期(qi)開始(shi)啟動(dong)。種(zhong)子(zi)(zi)供應充(chong)足，可供種(zhong)子(zi)(zi)總量(liang)(liang)3.6億(yi)公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)，超過2.4～2.5億(yi)公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)的(de)(de)需求量(liang)(liang)。種(zhong)子(zi)(zi)價格基本(ben)穩(wen)定(ding)，平均售價63.84元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)。華南(nan)早稻(dao)(dao)區(qu)，由于(yu)去年(nian)大田(tian)種(zhong)植受災補種(zhong)，企業(ye)庫存壓力明(ming)顯(xian)減少，加(jia)之種(zhong)子(zi)(zi)生(sheng)產成本(ben)持續上漲(zhang)，種(zhong)子(zi)(zi)平均售價68.52元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)，穩(wen)中(zhong)略增(zeng)1.04%。中(zhong)稻(dao)(dao)區(qu)，種(zhong)子(zi)(zi)平均售價90.89元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)，同比基本(ben)持平。其中(zhong)，福建97.70元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)，同比增(zeng)長(chang)2.56%；廣西84.5元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)、湖南(nan)81.69元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)、四川(chuan)91.77元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)、云南(nan)71.91元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)、重慶92.97元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)，同比持平；安徽95.82元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)，同比下降2.37%。預計隨(sui)著中(zhong)晚(wan)稻(dao)(dao)種(zhong)子(zi)(zi)市場的(de)(de)活(huo)躍，雜交(jiao)(jiao)稻(dao)(dao)種(zhong)子(zi)(zi)將(jiang)有小幅波動(dong)，主要(yao)原因(yin)是中(zhong)晚(wan)稻(dao)(dao)雜交(jiao)(jiao)種(zhong)子(zi)(zi)2.8億(yi)公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)的(de)(de)供應量(liang)(liang)遠大于(yu)需求量(liang)(liang)及優質常規稻(dao)(dao)替代雜交(jiao)(jiao)稻(dao)(dao)增(zeng)加(jia)趨(qu)勢將(jiang)壓減雜交(jiao)(jiao)稻(dao)(dao)種(zhong)子(zi)(zi)銷售。
三、棉花(hua)
長江和(he)黃河(he)流域棉(mian)區種(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)終端銷(xiao)售市場零星啟動，在2016年(nian)棉(mian)花收(shou)購價格(ge)上(shang)調和(he)棉(mian)地種(zhong)(zhong)植(zhi)補貼(tie)帶動下，農戶繼續減種(zhong)(zhong)棉(mian)花勢頭得到遏制，種(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)市場呈現好轉跡象，將有力(li)緩(huan)解嚴重的庫(ku)存(cun)壓力(li)。當前(qian)安徽雜交棉(mian)種(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)平均售價240.89元(yuan)/公斤，同(tong)比下降3.32%。湖南雜交棉(mian)種(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)161.29元(yuan)/公斤，同(tong)比持平。山東(dong)常(chang)規棉(mian)20元(yuan)/公斤，主(zhu)要銷(xiao)售品種(zhong)(zhong)是中早熟(shu)、抗病、抗蟲、高產易(yi)摘的農興系列(lie)、魯棉(mian)研(yan)系列(lie)及(ji)河(he)北冀棉(mian)等系列(lie)。新疆棉(mian)區市場目前(qian)尚(shang)未啟動。
四(si)、大(da)豆
受結構(gou)調整政策、大(da)(da)(da)豆(dou)(dou)(dou)(dou)玉(yu)(yu)米比價(jia)提高(gao)后(hou)玉(yu)(yu)米種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)植效益優勢(shi)趨弱等因素影響，農民(min)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)植大(da)(da)(da)豆(dou)(dou)(dou)(dou)積(ji)極性明顯提高(gao)。東北大(da)(da)(da)豆(dou)(dou)(dou)(dou)區(qu)，市(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)量(liang)充足，銷(xiao)(xiao)售(shou)形勢(shi)較好，銷(xiao)(xiao)售(shou)進(jin)度明顯快于往(wang)年，價(jia)格上漲明顯，大(da)(da)(da)部分種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子生產(chan)商手(shou)里已無存(cun)貨。鐮(lian)刀彎地區(qu)四五積(ji)溫帶(dai)市(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)已經(jing)明朗，小規(gui)模種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)植農戶(hu)開(kai)始改種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)大(da)(da)(da)豆(dou)(dou)(dou)(dou)，種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子銷(xiao)(xiao)售(shou)市(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)形成(cheng)玉(yu)(yu)米冷清、大(da)(da)(da)豆(dou)(dou)(dou)(dou)較旺的冰火兩重天景(jing)象。黃淮海夏大(da)(da)(da)豆(dou)(dou)(dou)(dou)區(qu)，由于新(xin)《種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子法》對(dui)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子銷(xiao)(xiao)售(shou)“一袋一碼”要求、企業需要重新(xin)設計包裝，大(da)(da)(da)豆(dou)(dou)(dou)(dou)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子市(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)鋪貨緩慢，種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子批發價(jia)格高(gao)于往(wang)年，農戶(hu)購種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)積(ji)極性增高(gao)，中(zhong)熟(shu)、高(gao)產(chan)、抗倒伏、落黃性好、成(cheng)熟(shu)不(bu)裂莢、適合機械化的品種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)受到市(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)青睞(lai)。
五、花生與雜糧雜豆(dou)
黃淮海區(qu)(qu)在(zai)花(hua)生種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)植效益(yi)相對較高、部(bu)分玉米改種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)花(hua)生的(de)帶動下，花(hua)生種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)市場(chang)活(huo)躍(yue)，種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)需求量隨種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)植面(mian)(mian)積擴(kuo)大而(er)增加，春播種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)零(ling)售價(jia)格(ge)(ge)同比(bi)去年(nian)小幅上升，夏播種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)企業正在(zai)積極(ji)鋪貨(huo)，種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)供應充足，預計零(ling)售價(jia)格(ge)(ge)穩中有增。山西、陜西、內蒙、寧夏等區(qu)(qu)域，優質雜(za)糧雜(za)豆面(mian)(mian)積有明(ming)顯上升的(de)勢頭，其種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)市場(chang)比(bi)較活(huo)躍(yue)。
（種業信息與技術處）
