根據我(wo)省不(bu)同生態(tai)區(qu)內有代表性(xing)縣(xian)份的(de)植保站系統(tong)監(jian)測(ce)及田間普查結(jie)果，結(jie)合目前作物長勢與天氣(qi)情況綜(zong)合分析(xi)，預計(ji)三代黏蟲(chong)在我(wo)省總體為偏輕發生，但西(xi)南(nan)、東南(nan)部的(de)部分縣(xian)份局部地(di)塊(kuai)將偏重發生，幼蟲(chong)防(fang)治適期(qi)約在8月5日至(zhi)20日。
預報依據：
1、二(er)代(dai)幼蟲(chong)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)范圍(wei)(wei)較(jiao)(jiao)廣，殘(can)蟲(chong)量較(jiao)(jiao)高。6月中下旬發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)的二(er)代(dai)黏蟲(chong)幼蟲(chong)在全(quan)省(sheng)總體(ti)偏輕(qing)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，但分布范圍(wei)(wei)較(jiao)(jiao)廣，全(quan)省(sheng)共有(you)9個市34個縣(xian)份不同程(cheng)度(du)地發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，有(you)蟲(chong)面積(ji)134.4萬(wan)畝，高于(yu)(yu)上年3.2倍，低于(yu)(yu)近五年均值60.8%，同時賓縣(xian)、寧(ning)安等地還出現蟲(chong)口密度(du)較(jiao)(jiao)大、危害較(jiao)(jiao)重的地塊。由(you)于(yu)(yu)今年大部分二(er)代(dai)幼蟲(chong)有(you)蟲(chong)地塊未達到防治(zhi)指標，農戶未進行防治(zhi)，使得田間殘(can)蟲(chong)數量較(jiao)(jiao)高。二(er)代(dai)殘(can)蟲(chong)基數調查(cha)，玉(yu)米田平均殘(can)蟲(chong)量為3-4頭/百株，谷子等密植作物2-3頭/平方米，殘(can)蟲(chong)密度(du)接近三(san)代(dai)黏蟲(chong)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)較(jiao)(jiao)重的2012年和2013年。
2、二代成蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)大(da)(da)部(bu)(bu)分(fen)(fen)遷出(chu)，部(bu)(bu)分(fen)(fen)滯留本(ben)地(di)(di)。一(yi)是(shi)地(di)(di)面成蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)誘(you)(you)集量(liang)較少。全省不(bu)同生態(tai)區的(de)18個黏蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)重(zhong)點監(jian)測(ce)(ce)站，利用高(gao)(gao)(gao)空測(ce)(ce)報(bao)燈(deng)(deng)(deng)、黑(hei)(hei)光(guang)燈(deng)(deng)(deng)、楊樹枝把(ba)(ba)和誘(you)(you)蛾(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)器誘(you)(you)集成蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)及谷(gu)(gu)草(cao)把(ba)(ba)誘(you)(you)卵(luan)等方法監(jian)測(ce)(ce)，7月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)6日(ri)肇(zhao)州始見二代成蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)，略(lve)早于常年，至8月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)3日(ri)，雙(shuang)(shuang)城、肇(zhao)州、肇(zhao)源、穆棱、富錦(jin)(jin)、雞東、樺南、集賢、密(mi)(mi)山9個縣(xian)(xian)（市(shi)）誘(you)(you)到(dao)(dao)成蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)蛾(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)，7月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)14日(ri)-15日(ri)和7月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)17日(ri)-24日(ri)出(chu)現兩個蛾(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)峰。雙(shuang)(shuang)城單日(ri)最(zui)(zui)高(gao)(gao)(gao)誘(you)(you)蛾(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)量(liang)：高(gao)(gao)(gao)空測(ce)(ce)報(bao)燈(deng)(deng)(deng)169頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)、楊樹枝把(ba)(ba)102頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)、黑(hei)(hei)光(guang)燈(deng)(deng)(deng)17頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)、誘(you)(you)蛾(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)器5頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，累(lei)計誘(you)(you)蛾(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)量(liang)分(fen)(fen)別為659頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)、226頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)、72頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)、13頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)；肇(zhao)州單日(ri)最(zui)(zui)高(gao)(gao)(gao)誘(you)(you)蛾(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)量(liang)：黑(hei)(hei)光(guang)燈(deng)(deng)(deng)22頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)、楊樹枝把(ba)(ba)20頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，累(lei)計分(fen)(fen)別為56頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)、45頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)；穆棱誘(you)(you)蛾(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)器、楊樹枝把(ba)(ba)、黑(hei)(hei)光(guang)燈(deng)(deng)(deng)累(lei)計誘(you)(you)蛾(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)量(liang)分(fen)(fen)別51、27、14頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)；密(mi)(mi)山、肇(zhao)源、雞東累(lei)計誘(you)(you)蛾(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)量(liang)分(fen)(fen)別為59頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)、21頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)、16頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)；富錦(jin)(jin)僅7月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)23日(ri)高(gao)(gao)(gao)空測(ce)(ce)報(bao)燈(deng)(deng)(deng)誘(you)(you)蛾(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)6頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)。總體(ti)(ti)看，誘(you)(you)蛾(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)量(liang)為近(jin)四(si)年最(zui)(zui)高(gao)(gao)(gao)，但明顯(xian)低于2012年和2013年。二是(shi)大(da)(da)部(bu)(bu)雌(ci)(ci)蛾(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)卵(luan)巢(chao)(chao)發(fa)育級(ji)(ji)(ji)別低。誘(you)(you)集到(dao)(dao)的(de)雌(ci)(ci)蛾(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)卵(luan)巢(chao)(chao)解剖(pou)情況(kuang)，大(da)(da)部(bu)(bu)分(fen)(fen)雌(ci)(ci)蛾(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)卵(luan)巢(chao)(chao)發(fa)育級(ji)(ji)(ji)別一(yi)直處于適于遷出(chu)狀(zhuang)態(tai)的(de)2級(ji)(ji)(ji)以下，適于滯留狀(zhuang)態(tai)的(de)3-4級(ji)(ji)(ji)以上(shang)級(ji)(ji)(ji)別雌(ci)(ci)蛾(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)僅占20％-30%，3級(ji)(ji)(ji)以上(shang)雌(ci)(ci)蛾(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)(e)比(bi)例(li)明顯(xian)低于2012年和2013年。三是(shi)谷(gu)(gu)草(cao)把(ba)(ba)未誘(you)(you)到(dao)(dao)卵(luan)塊(kuai)(kuai)。各地(di)(di)在(zai)玉(yu)米(mi)、谷(gu)(gu)子(zi)等代表田(tian)(tian)(tian)塊(kuai)(kuai)分(fen)(fen)別設置兩組(zu)共(gong)20把(ba)(ba)谷(gu)(gu)草(cao)把(ba)(ba)誘(you)(you)集卵(luan)塊(kuai)(kuai)，至8月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)3日(ri)均(jun)(jun)未誘(you)(you)到(dao)(dao)。四(si)是(shi)局部(bu)(bu)地(di)(di)塊(kuai)(kuai)幼(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)口(kou)(kou)密(mi)(mi)度(du)較大(da)(da)。7月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)26日(ri)開始至8月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)3日(ri)，雙(shuang)(shuang)城、肇(zhao)源、肇(zhao)州、肇(zhao)東、延壽等地(di)(di)在(zai)谷(gu)(gu)子(zi)、玉(yu)米(mi)、水(shui)稻田(tian)(tian)(tian)陸(lu)續查(cha)到(dao)(dao)幼(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)。雙(shuang)(shuang)城27個鄉(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)鎮(zhen)(zhen)(zhen)中已有(you)6個鄉(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)鎮(zhen)(zhen)(zhen)查(cha)到(dao)(dao)幼(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)，谷(gu)(gu)子(zi)田(tian)(tian)(tian)有(you)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)田(tian)(tian)(tian)塊(kuai)(kuai)率55.6％、草(cao)荒較重(zhong)的(de)玉(yu)米(mi)田(tian)(tian)(tian)有(you)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)田(tian)(tian)(tian)塊(kuai)(kuai)84.4%；谷(gu)(gu)子(zi)田(tian)(tian)(tian)平(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)口(kou)(kou)密(mi)(mi)度(du)10.6頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)/平(ping)(ping)方米(mi)、最(zui)(zui)高(gao)(gao)(gao)58頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)/平(ping)(ping)方米(mi)，草(cao)荒較重(zhong)玉(yu)米(mi)田(tian)(tian)(tian)平(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)口(kou)(kou)密(mi)(mi)度(du)78頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)/百(bai)株(zhu)，最(zui)(zui)高(gao)(gao)(gao)達285頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)/百(bai)株(zhu)。肇(zhao)源縣(xian)(xian)已有(you)3個鄉(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)鎮(zhen)(zhen)(zhen)谷(gu)(gu)子(zi)田(tian)(tian)(tian)查(cha)到(dao)(dao)幼(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)，有(you)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)田(tian)(tian)(tian)塊(kuai)(kuai)率14.3％，蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)口(kou)(kou)密(mi)(mi)度(du)一(yi)般(ban)1-3頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)/平(ping)(ping)方米(mi)。目前幼(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)齡80%為1-2齡，玉(yu)米(mi)田(tian)(tian)(tian)幼(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)尚集中在(zai)田(tian)(tian)(tian)間(jian)雜草(cao)上(shang)。其(qi)它(ta)各地(di)(di)尚未查(cha)到(dao)(dao)幼(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)。總體(ti)(ti)看，目前幼(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)發(fa)生尚不(bu)普遍(bian)；蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)口(kou)(kou)密(mi)(mi)度(du)除雙(shuang)(shuang)城較高(gao)(gao)(gao)外，其(qi)它(ta)見蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)縣(xian)(xian)份(fen)均(jun)(jun)較低。
3、成蟲(chong)盛發(fa)期氣(qi)候條件利于黏(nian)(nian)蟲(chong)遷出(chu)(chu)。7月中、下旬二代黏(nian)(nian)蟲(chong)成蟲(chong)羽化(hua)盛發(fa)期，我省以晴好天氣(qi)為(wei)主，為(wei)羽化(hua)出(chu)(chu)的成蟲(chong)遷出(chu)(chu)提供(gong)了(le)有利的氣(qi)候條件。
4、農田生(sheng)境和小(xiao)氣候(hou)環境有(you)(you)利。我省(sheng)玉米、水稻、谷子等黏蟲喜食(shi)的(de)禾本科作物面積大(da)、長(chang)勢較(jiao)好(hao)，且7中旬(xun)以來(lai)我省(sheng)多高溫、高濕(shi)天氣，有(you)(you)利于黏蟲發育繁(fan)殖危(wei)害。
綜合(he)分(fen)析，今年二代(dai)黏蟲(chong)成(cheng)蟲(chong)已大部(bu)分(fen)遷出(chu)我省，但(dan)仍(reng)有(you)部(bu)分(fen)滯留產卵為(wei)害(hai)。鑒于(yu)(yu)黏蟲(chong)成(cheng)蟲(chong)繁殖力極強，適宜條件下每頭雌蛾(e)最高產卵量可達3000粒，因(yin)此雖(sui)然僅有(you)部(bu)分(fen)二代(dai)成(cheng)蟲(chong)滯留本(ben)地，但(dan)田(tian)(tian)間(jian)仍(reng)出(chu)現較高幼蟲(chong)密(mi)度(du)田(tian)(tian)塊(kuai)(kuai)。預計我省不會出(chu)現三(san)代(dai)黏蟲(chong)幼蟲(chong)大范圍、大面積暴發(fa)(fa)為(wei)害(hai)的(de)情況，但(dan)西南(nan)、東南(nan)部(bu)部(bu)分(fen)縣份(fen)的(de)局部(bu)谷子田(tian)(tian)及草(cao)(cao)荒較重(zhong)的(de)玉米田(tian)(tian)塊(kuai)(kuai)將造成(cheng)較重(zhong)為(wei)害(hai)。由于(yu)(yu)目前(qian)田(tian)(tian)間(jian)農事活動較少，三(san)代(dai)黏蟲(chong)又有(you)聚(ju)集(ji)分(fen)布(bu)、發(fa)(fa)生初期(qi)(qi)隱蔽、中(zhong)后期(qi)(qi)暴發(fa)(fa)危害(hai)的(de)特點，且(qie)多在田(tian)(tian)塊(kuai)(kuai)內部(bu)呈點片發(fa)(fa)生，田(tian)(tian)外不易發(fa)(fa)現。因(yin)此，全(quan)面查(cha)田(tian)(tian)，準(zhun)確掌(zhang)握蟲(chong)情動態，確定蟲(chong)情分(fen)布(bu)及應防地塊(kuai)(kuai)尤(you)為(wei)重(zhong)要(yao)。各地要(yao)廣泛(fan)發(fa)(fa)動群(qun)眾(zhong)，克服困難，深入田(tian)(tian)間(jian)，重(zhong)點排查(cha)谷子田(tian)(tian)和草(cao)(cao)荒玉米田(tian)(tian)，對達到防治(zhi)指標(biao)的(de)地塊(kuai)(kuai)，立即組織、指導農戶采(cai)取(qu)有(you)效措施控制黏蟲(chong)為(wei)害(hai)，避免局部(bu)地塊(kuai)(kuai)造成(cheng)災害(hai)損失。
防治建議：
應采取生態、農業(ye)控(kong)制和藥(yao)劑(ji)防(fang)治相結合的綜合防(fang)控(kong)措施：
1、提(ti)早(zao)人(ren)工除(chu)草降(jiang)低蟲(chong)量。根據粘蟲(chong)產(chan)卵(luan)習性及幼(you)蟲(chong)發生特點(dian)，可將前期(qi)防除(chu)的田間(jian)枯草帶出田外，減(jian)少田間(jian)落卵(luan)，并可提(ti)早(zao)放秋壟，打底葉(xie)，降(jiang)低幼(you)蟲(chong)危害(hai)。
2、適時(shi)開展(zhan)藥(yao)劑防(fang)治(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)。根據當地(di)蟲情調查，嚴格(ge)掌握(wo)防(fang)治(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)適期(qi)，防(fang)治(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)過(guo)早，會(hui)因田(tian)間尚有相當數量(liang)的(de)卵未孵化，作物仍然會(hui)受(shou)(shou)害(hai)；防(fang)治(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)過(guo)晚，損失已(yi)造成，大(da)齡幼(you)(you)蟲抗(kang)藥(yao)性(xing)強(qiang)，防(fang)效也較差。一般(ban)掌握(wo)在幼(you)(you)蟲3-4齡期(qi)為(wei)施藥(yao)最(zui)佳(jia)時(shi)期(qi)。可(ke)用自走(zou)式(shi)高稈作物噴霧(wu)機或植(zhi)保無人機施藥(yao)作業(ye)，使(shi)用人工(gong)背負式(shi)噴霧(wu)器，必須慎(shen)重，避免(mian)人員中毒受(shou)(shou)害(hai)。當玉米田(tian)蟲口(kou)密度達(da)(da)到50頭(tou)/百株、谷田(tian)達(da)(da)到20頭(tou)/平方(fang)米的(de)防(fang)治(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)指(zhi)標時(shi)，可(ke)噴藥(yao)防(fang)治(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)。
3、合理選擇安全藥劑。防治低齡幼蟲以及有機作物生產田可使用生物藥劑50000UI/毫克蘇云金桿菌（BT），每畝用藥30克；化學藥劑可選擇菊酯類農藥，成本低，效果好(hao)，對人員相對安(an)全(quan)，較為安(an)全(quan)常用(yong)(yong)的藥(yao)劑和每畝用(yong)(yong)量(liang)為：5%高效氯氰菊(ju)酯40毫升，每畝噴液(ye)量(liang)30公斤。噴藥(yao)時(shi)應嚴(yan)格按照(zhao)《農藥(yao)安(an)全(quan)操作(zuo)規程(cheng)》施(shi)藥(yao)，注意用(yong)(yong)藥(yao)安(an)全(quan)。
