一、發生趨勢
根據當前麥(mai)田(tian)病(bing)蟲(chong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)情況、小麥(mai)長勢，結(jie)合省氣(qi)(qi)象臺天氣(qi)(qi)預報(bao)及(ji)相關(guan)病(bing)蟲(chong)歷史資(zi)料綜合分(fen)析，預計今年我省小麥(mai)穗(sui)期病(bing)蟲(chong)總體中(zhong)等，局部偏(pian)重(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)。其(qi)中(zhong)小麥(mai)紅蜘(zhi)蛛(zhu)在南(nan)部麥(mai)區(qu)中(zhong)等發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，局部旱垣、向陽坡地偏(pian)重(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)400萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)；小麥(mai)穗(sui)蚜偏(pian)重(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)635萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)；小麥(mai)吸漿蟲(chong)輕發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)40萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)；小麥(mai)白粉病(bing)中(zhong)等發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)340萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)；小麥(mai)紋枯病(bing)在南(nan)部高水肥麥(mai)田(tian)偏(pian)輕發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)50萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)；小麥(mai)葉銹(xiu)病(bing)中(zhong)等發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)110萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)；小麥(mai)赤霉病(bing)偏(pian)輕發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)50萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)；小麥(mai)條銹(xiu)病(bing)在運城麥(mai)區(qu)偏(pian)輕發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)50萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)。
二、預報依據
1、當前蟲（病(bing)）情
據近期(qi)各地(di)調查(cha)，目(mu)前我省(sheng)小(xiao)(xiao)麥(mai)(mai)(mai)病(bing)(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)害發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)程(cheng)度略(lve)輕(qing)于(yu)前兩(liang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)，以紅蜘蛛(zhu)、麥(mai)(mai)(mai)蚜、白(bai)(bai)粉病(bing)(bing)(bing)為主，部分(fen)田(tian)(tian)塊已(yi)(yi)達(da)(da)防治指標。其中：小(xiao)(xiao)麥(mai)(mai)(mai)紅蜘蛛(zhu)偏輕(qing)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，截(jie)止4月(yue)13日，全省(sheng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)265萬(wan)(wan)畝，較上年(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)減(jian)少(shao)(shao)(shao)(shao)95萬(wan)(wan)畝，主要發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)在(zai)運(yun)城(cheng)(cheng)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)向(xiang)陽坡地(di)和早(zao)播麥(mai)(mai)(mai)田(tian)(tian)，平(ping)(ping)均(jun)每尺(chi)行(xing)長7.3～63頭(tou)，低(di)(di)于(yu)去(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)4.2～158頭(tou)，臨(lin)猗(yi)最(zui)高(gao)達(da)(da)280頭(tou)，明顯低(di)(di)于(yu)去(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)680頭(tou)。小(xiao)(xiao)麥(mai)(mai)(mai)蚜蟲(chong)偏輕(qing)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，全省(sheng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)239萬(wan)(wan)畝，較上年(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)減(jian)少(shao)(shao)(shao)(shao)6萬(wan)(wan)畝，主要發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)在(zai)運(yun)城(cheng)(cheng)麥(mai)(mai)(mai)區水地(di)麥(mai)(mai)(mai)田(tian)(tian)，其他麥(mai)(mai)(mai)區零(ling)星發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，一般百莖5.1～86頭(tou)，接近去(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)，臨(lin)猗(yi)最(zui)高(gao)235頭(tou)，低(di)(di)于(yu)去(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)263頭(tou)。小(xiao)(xiao)麥(mai)(mai)(mai)吸漿(jiang)蟲(chong)4月(yue)上旬(xun)末各麥(mai)(mai)(mai)區淘土調查(cha)，全省(sheng)有蟲(chong)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)17.6萬(wan)(wan)畝，較上年(nian)(nian)(nian)減(jian)少(shao)(shao)(shao)(shao)24萬(wan)(wan)畝，目(mu)前正處于(yu)越冬(dong)幼蟲(chong)上升化(hua)蛹期(qi)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)區域仍(reng)主要分(fen)布在(zai)臨(lin)汾(fen)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)襄(xiang)汾(fen)、侯(hou)馬、翼城(cheng)(cheng)、洪洞四縣區及運(yun)城(cheng)(cheng)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)永(yong)濟(ji)城(cheng)(cheng)西(xi)、聞(wen)(wen)喜(xi)東(dong)鎮(zhen)等常發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)區，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)區域土壤(rang)平(ping)(ping)均(jun)含(han)蟲(chong)量為每小(xiao)(xiao)方1.1～1.3頭(tou)，略(lve)低(di)(di)于(yu)去(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)1.2～1.8頭(tou)，全省(sheng)最(zui)高(gao)土壤(rang)含(han)蟲(chong)量每小(xiao)(xiao)方7頭(tou)，較上年(nian)(nian)(nian)減(jian)少(shao)(shao)(shao)(shao)8頭(tou)。小(xiao)(xiao)麥(mai)(mai)(mai)白(bai)(bai)粉病(bing)(bing)(bing)在(zai)聞(wen)(wen)喜(xi)、芮城(cheng)(cheng)、鹽湖(hu)、萬(wan)(wan)榮、臨(lin)猗(yi)等地(di)輕(qing)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)40萬(wan)(wan)畝，較上年(nian)(nian)(nian)減(jian)少(shao)(shao)(shao)(shao)35萬(wan)(wan)畝，平(ping)(ping)均(jun)病(bing)(bing)(bing)葉(xie)(xie)(xie)率(lv)3.4%，低(di)(di)于(yu)去(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)6.4%，芮城(cheng)(cheng)群(qun)體大的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)麥(mai)(mai)(mai)田(tian)(tian)最(zui)高(gao)60%，高(gao)于(yu)去(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)55%。小(xiao)(xiao)麥(mai)(mai)(mai)紋(wen)枯(ku)病(bing)(bing)(bing)在(zai)聞(wen)(wen)喜(xi)、鹽湖(hu)、芮城(cheng)(cheng)、萬(wan)(wan)榮、洪洞等地(di)輕(qing)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)28萬(wan)(wan)畝，較上年(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)減(jian)少(shao)(shao)(shao)(shao)13萬(wan)(wan)畝，平(ping)(ping)均(jun)病(bing)(bing)(bing)株(zhu)率(lv)3.2%，低(di)(di)于(yu)去(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)3.5%，芮城(cheng)(cheng)個別麥(mai)(mai)(mai)田(tian)(tian)最(zui)高(gao)達(da)(da)25%，高(gao)于(yu)去(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)20%。小(xiao)(xiao)麥(mai)(mai)(mai)葉(xie)(xie)(xie)銹(xiu)(xiu)病(bing)(bing)(bing)在(zai)芮城(cheng)(cheng)、萬(wan)(wan)榮等地(di)旱地(di)及感病(bing)(bing)(bing)品種麥(mai)(mai)(mai)田(tian)(tian)零(ling)星發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，平(ping)(ping)均(jun)病(bing)(bing)(bing)葉(xie)(xie)(xie)率(lv)1%左右，接近近三年(nian)(nian)(nian)。截(jie)止目(mu)前，全省(sheng)調查(cha)未發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)現(xian)條(tiao)銹(xiu)(xiu)病(bing)(bing)(bing)，但我們(men)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)臨(lin)省(sheng)陜西(xi)目(mu)前條(tiao)銹(xiu)(xiu)病(bing)(bing)(bing)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)病(bing)(bing)(bing)程(cheng)度是2010年(nian)(nian)(nian)以來第二重發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)年(nian)(nian)(nian)份，部分(fen)地(di)區已(yi)(yi)進入普(pu)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)階(jie)段。
2、氣象因素
據山(shan)西省氣象臺(tai)預(yu)報，2018年4、5月(yue)(yue)份主產(chan)麥(mai)區平均氣溫(wen)較常年偏高(gao)0～1℃。4月(yue)(yue)，主產(chan)麥(mai)區運城(cheng)、臨汾、晉城(cheng)降(jiang)水較常年同(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)偏少1～2成(cheng)，5月(yue)(yue)運城(cheng)、晉城(cheng)降(jiang)水較常年同(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)偏少2～4成(cheng)，對麥(mai)蜘蛛(zhu)、麥(mai)蚜(ya)等發生有利(li)(li)；5月(yue)(yue)臨汾降(jiang)水較常年同(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)偏多1～2成(cheng)，對病害、吸漿蟲(chong)發生有利(li)(li)。
3、生態條件
今年(nian)(nian)我省冬小麥苗(miao)情(qing)參差(cha)(cha)不(bu)齊(qi)，且晚播弱苗(miao)面積大(da)，長勢(shi)一般，苗(miao)情(qing)比例為(wei)3:4:3，差(cha)(cha)于上(shang)年(nian)(nian)，抗病(bing)蟲(chong)能力差(cha)(cha)；小麥品(pin)種布局無明顯變化，大(da)部分品(pin)種對穗期主要病(bing)蟲(chong)（吸漿蟲(chong)、穗蚜、紋枯病(bing)、白粉(fen)病(bing)、銹病(bing)等）抗性(xing)中等或較差(cha)(cha)，旱地小麥品(pin)種不(bu)抗白粉(fen)病(bing)在生(sheng)產中表現突出。
三、防治建議
穗(sui)期(qi)是小(xiao)麥病(bing)蟲盛(sheng)發(fa)期(qi)，也是病(bing)蟲防治關鍵時期(qi)，各地(di)要結(jie)合小(xiao)麥“一噴三防”項(xiang)目(mu)的(de)實施(shi)，加強肥水管(guan)理(li)，并做(zuo)好對麥穗(sui)蚜、條銹病(bing)、白粉(fen)病(bing)、吸漿蟲、赤霉病(bing)等的(de)防治工作。
當小麥穗蚜百穗蚜量達800頭以上，益害比（天敵：蚜蟲）低于1:150時，選用吡蚜酮、啶蟲脒、吡蟲啉、抗蚜威、苦參堿等藥(yao)劑(ji)噴(pen)霧(wu)(wu)防治(zhi)。小麥吸漿(jiang)蟲常發區(qu)要(yao)重點抓好(hao)穗期(qi)成蟲防治(zhi)，藥(yao)劑(ji)可選用辛硫磷、毒死蜱、高效氯氟氰菊酯(zhi)、氯氟·吡蟲啉(lin)等噴(pen)霧(wu)(wu)防治(zhi)。對(dui)赤(chi)霉病可能發生區(qu)（高感(gan)品種麥區(qu)），如果天(tian)氣預(yu)報小麥揚花(hua)期(qi)有2天(tian)以上(shang)連(lian)陰雨(yu)天(tian)氣，首次施(shi)藥(yao)時(shi)(shi)間應提前至破口抽(chou)穗期(qi)，藥(yao)劑(ji)可選用氰烯菌(jun)(jun)酯(zhi)、咪(mi)鮮(xian)胺(an)、戊唑(zuo)(zuo)醇(chun)、福(fu)美雙、甲基硫菌(jun)(jun)靈、枯(ku)草芽孢桿菌(jun)(jun)等，要(yao)用足藥(yao)液量(liang)，施(shi)藥(yao)后(hou)3~6小時(shi)(shi)內遇(yu)雨(yu)，雨(yu)后(hou)應及時(shi)(shi)補治(zhi)。小麥條銹病防治(zhi)要(yao)落實“發現(xian)一點、防治(zhi)一片”的(de)預(yu)防措施(shi)，及時(shi)(shi)控制發病中心；當田(tian)間平均病葉率達到0.5%~1%時(shi)(shi)，組(zu)織開展大面積應急防治(zhi)，并且做到同類區(qu)域防治(zhi)全覆蓋(gai)。藥(yao)劑(ji)可選用三唑(zuo)(zuo)酮、烯唑(zuo)(zuo)醇(chun)、戊唑(zuo)(zuo)醇(chun)、氟環唑(zuo)(zuo)、已唑(zuo)(zuo)醇(chun)、丙環唑(zuo)(zuo)等。
此外需注意的是在麥蚜、吸漿蟲、白粉病、銹病等病蟲混發區，要大面積整體推進“一噴三防”技術，組織專業化防治組織，按常規藥量，采取殺菌劑、殺蟲劑與磷酸二氫鉀混配噴霧防治，達到防病、治蟲、抗干熱風和節本增效的目的。
