據全(quan)國(guo)農技中心組織全(quan)國(guo)植保體(ti)系和科研、教學單(dan)位的專家(jia)會(hui)商分(fen)析，預計2019年全(quan)國(guo)玉(yu)米(mi)主要病蟲(chong)(chong)害(hai)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)總體(ti)接近常年，發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)面積為10億畝(mu)(mu)次，其中，蟲(chong)(chong)害(hai)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)7.3億畝(mu)(mu)次，病害(hai)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)2.7億畝(mu)(mu)次。各玉(yu)米(mi)產區主要病蟲(chong)(chong)害(hai)，東北(bei)(bei)和華北(bei)(bei)地(di)(di)(di)區：玉(yu)米(mi)螟、粘(zhan)蟲(chong)(chong)、地(di)(di)(di)下害(hai)蟲(chong)(chong)、雙(shuang)(shuang)斑(ban)螢(ying)葉甲、大斑(ban)病，黃淮地(di)(di)(di)區：玉(yu)米(mi)螟、棉鈴(ling)蟲(chong)(chong)、二點委夜(ye)蛾(e)、褐斑(ban)病，西南地(di)(di)(di)區：玉(yu)米(mi)螟、紋枯病、小斑(ban)病，西北(bei)(bei)地(di)(di)(di)區：玉(yu)米(mi)螟、雙(shuang)(shuang)斑(ban)螢(ying)葉甲、蚜蟲(chong)(chong)、葉螨。玉(yu)米(mi)螟在(zai)東北(bei)(bei)和黃淮等地(di)(di)(di)為害(hai)重，棉鈴(ling)蟲(chong)(chong)近年為害(hai)加重、為害(hai)區域擴大，粘(zhan)蟲(chong)(chong)在(zai)北(bei)(bei)方部(bu)分(fen)地(di)(di)(di)區會(hui)出現(xian)高密度集中為害(hai)，草地(di)(di)(di)螟種群回升趨勢明顯、東北(bei)(bei)局部(bu)有重發(fa)(fa)(fa)的可(ke)能，南方銹病在(zai)黃淮地(di)(di)(di)區有流行風險(xian)。
一(yi)、發生趨勢
（一）蟲害
玉(yu)(yu)米(mi)(mi)螟(ming)總(zong)體為中(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)3.0億畝(mu)(mu)次，其中(zhong)(zhong)，一代(dai)(dai)玉(yu)(yu)米(mi)(mi)螟(ming)在(zai)(zai)(zai)東北北部(bu)偏重(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)1.1億畝(mu)(mu)；二代(dai)(dai)玉(yu)(yu)米(mi)(mi)螟(ming)在(zai)(zai)(zai)東北和西(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)南局部(bu)地(di)區(qu)偏重(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)1.2億畝(mu)(mu)；三(san)(san)代(dai)(dai)玉(yu)(yu)米(mi)(mi)螟(ming)在(zai)(zai)(zai)黃(huang)淮(huai)部(bu)分地(di)區(qu)偏重(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)7000萬(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)。二、三(san)(san)代(dai)(dai)粘蟲(chong)為中(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，北方部(bu)分地(di)區(qu)會出現(xian)高密度集中(zhong)(zhong)為害，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)5800萬(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)次。棉鈴蟲(chong)總(zong)體中(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，三(san)(san)代(dai)(dai)、四(si)代(dai)(dai)在(zai)(zai)(zai)黃(huang)淮(huai)海(hai)地(di)區(qu)偏重(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)9000萬(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)次。地(di)下害蟲(chong)總(zong)體中(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，西(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)北、東北局部(bu)偏重(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)8500萬(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)。蚜蟲(chong)在(zai)(zai)(zai)東北、西(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)北和黃(huang)淮(huai)海(hai)大部(bu)地(di)區(qu)中(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)5200萬(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)。雙(shuang)斑螢葉甲在(zai)(zai)(zai)東北大部(bu)偏重(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，華(hua)北和西(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)北大部(bu)中(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)3400萬(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)。薊(ji)馬在(zai)(zai)(zai)黃(huang)淮(huai)局部(bu)偏重(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)3700萬(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)。草地(di)螟(ming)在(zai)(zai)(zai)東北大部(bu)和華(hua)北局部(bu)存(cun)在(zai)(zai)(zai)重(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)的(de)可能，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)1500萬(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)以上。二點(dian)委夜(ye)蛾在(zai)(zai)(zai)黃(huang)淮(huai)海(hai)總(zong)體偏輕發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，局部(bu)會出現(xian)高密度為害田(tian)塊，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)1100萬(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)。葉螨在(zai)(zai)(zai)內蒙古中(zhong)(zhong)西(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)部(bu)、山西(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)北部(bu)偏重(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，西(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)北大部(bu)地(di)區(qu)中(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)2300萬(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)。
（二）病害
大(da)(da)斑病在東北(bei)、華(hua)北(bei)、西(xi)南大(da)(da)部(bu)地(di)(di)區為中(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，東北(bei)局部(bu)偏重發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)6500萬(wan)畝。南方(fang)銹病在黃淮(huai)、江淮(huai)大(da)(da)部(bu)中(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，黃淮(huai)局部(bu)存在偏重流行的(de)風險，發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)4000萬(wan)畝。小斑病在黃淮(huai)海(hai)局部(bu)和(he)西(xi)南地(di)(di)區中(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)3400萬(wan)畝。褐(he)斑病在黃淮(huai)地(di)(di)區中(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)3000萬(wan)畝。
二、預測(ce)依(yi)據
（一）粘蟲、玉米螟和棉鈴蟲部分地區基數偏(pian)高
1．粘蟲：據各地(di)高空測(ce)(ce)報(bao)燈2018年(nian)夏(xia)末秋初監(jian)測(ce)(ce)，東(dong)北、華北、黃淮、長(chang)江(jiang)中(zhong)下(xia)游(you)、江(jiang)南(nan)、華南(nan)和西(xi)南(nan)地(di)區均誘到(dao)粘蟲成蟲。9月份15個監(jian)測(ce)(ce)點累計(ji)誘蟲量6391頭(tou)(tou)，其中(zhong)，山東(dong)長(chang)島3907頭(tou)(tou)，河北灤(luan)縣(xian)1158頭(tou)(tou)，廣西(xi)宜州537頭(tou)(tou)，安徽鳳臺388頭(tou)(tou)，黑龍江(jiang)雙城115頭(tou)(tou)，除灤(luan)縣(xian)外，其他(ta)四點同比增加1倍以上；陜(shan)西(xi)興平、吉林(lin)長(chang)嶺、甘肅(su)莊浪(lang)、山東(dong)萊州、湖(hu)北潛(qian)江(jiang)、上海奉賢30－57頭(tou)(tou)。
2．玉米(mi)螟：據各地2018年冬前基數(shu)調(diao)查(cha)，平均百(bai)稈活蟲數(shu)，
黑龍江75頭，河(he)(he)南59頭，遼(liao)寧(ning)、吉林、內(nei)蒙(meng)古(gu)、天(tian)津、河(he)(he)北(bei)(bei)、江蘇(su)、安(an)徽、新疆、云南27－46頭，北(bei)(bei)京、山(shan)西、陜西、湖(hu)(hu)北(bei)(bei)、湖(hu)(hu)南、寧(ning)夏(xia)、四川、重慶、貴州2－17頭。黑龍江、吉林、山(shan)東、湖(hu)(hu)北(bei)(bei)、湖(hu)(hu)南、寧(ning)夏(xia)同比降低25%－34%，遼(liao)寧(ning)、內(nei)蒙(meng)古(gu)、北(bei)(bei)京、河(he)(he)北(bei)(bei)、安(an)徽增加14%－45%，河(he)(he)南是上年的2.6倍，其他省份接(jie)近上年。
3．棉(mian)鈴蟲(chong)：據各(ge)地棉(mian)鈴蟲(chong)冬(dong)前蟲(chong)源基數(shu)調查，黃淮海和西北大(da)部地區(qu)普(pu)遍見蟲(chong)，部分(fen)地區(qu)基數(shu)較高(gao)，如河北館陶棉(mian)花(hua)(hua)(hua)、玉(yu)米、大(da)豆(dou)、花(hua)(hua)(hua)生田平均(jun)畝蛹量分(fen)別(bie)為(wei)240頭(tou)、74頭(tou)、93頭(tou)、87頭(tou)，山東成武棉(mian)花(hua)(hua)(hua)、玉(yu)米、大(da)豆(dou)、花(hua)(hua)(hua)生田平均(jun)畝蛹量分(fen)別(bie)為(wei)53頭(tou)、133頭(tou)、87頭(tou)、267頭(tou)，明顯高(gao)于上(shang)年(nian)。
4．二點委(wei)夜蛾：河(he)(he)北(bei)、河(he)(he)南(nan)(nan)、山東(dong)、山西(xi)、江蘇(su)5個省冬前查(cha)見(jian)越冬蟲(chong)(chong)源(yuan)，估算蟲(chong)(chong)源(yuan)面(mian)積(ji)為(wei)727萬畝(mu)，比上年增加25.8%。每畝(mu)平均(jun)蟲(chong)(chong)口數(shu)(shu)量，河(he)(he)南(nan)(nan)、山東(dong)、山西(xi)、河(he)(he)北(bei)在20－87頭之(zhi)間，蟲(chong)(chong)源(yuan)基數(shu)(shu)接近上年；每畝(mu)最(zui)高蟲(chong)(chong)口數(shu)(shu)量，河(he)(he)南(nan)(nan)南(nan)(nan)樂、濮陽為(wei)1334頭，山西(xi)聞喜為(wei)667頭，山東(dong)冠縣、茌平、臨清為(wei)333頭，河(he)(he)北(bei)大城(cheng)133頭。
5. 草(cao)(cao)(cao)地(di)螟：北方各地(di)秋季草(cao)(cao)(cao)地(di)螟越冬(dong)(dong)(dong)基數調查，僅在河北張家口宣化區(qu)(qu)、內蒙古呼(hu)和(he)浩(hao)特(te)托(tuo)克托(tuo)縣(xian)、呼(hu)倫貝爾莫力達瓦達斡爾旗、寧夏石嘴山惠農區(qu)(qu)和(he)平羅縣(xian)查見越冬(dong)(dong)(dong)活繭，三省（區(qu)(qu)）越冬(dong)(dong)(dong)活繭加權平均密度為每(mei)平方米0.01－0.02頭，估算(suan)全國總越冬(dong)(dong)(dong)面積185萬畝，比(bi)前3年均值高37%。2018年草(cao)(cao)(cao)地(di)螟在內蒙古東部(bu)暴發(fa)，東北其他地(di)區(qu)(qu)種(zhong)群恢復(fu)跡象明顯，預示(shi)草(cao)(cao)(cao)地(di)螟可能(neng)進入新的發(fa)生為害周期。
6. 病(bing)害(hai)：玉米主要病(bing)害(hai)連年普遍發生，各地菌(jun)源(yuan)分布(bu)范圍廣(guang)，黃淮(huai)海、西北、東北等地大力推(tui)廣(guang)秸(jie)稈還(huan)(huan)田(tian)措施，秸(jie)稈還(huan)(huan)田(tian)面積比(bi)率均大于(yu)(yu)90%，有利(li)于(yu)(yu)大斑(ban)病(bing)、小斑(ban)病(bing)、褐斑(ban)病(bing)等多(duo)種病(bing)害(hai)菌(jun)源(yuan)的積累。
（二）種(zhong)植栽培(pei)措(cuo)施對病蟲害發生總體有利
東(dong)北、華北和黃淮海主產(chan)區(qu)玉(yu)米連年種(zhong)植，普(pu)遍(bian)推行的(de)密植、免(mian)耕、秸稈還田等措施，有利于玉(yu)米病(bing)蟲源積累和發生為害。東(dong)北、華北主栽品種(zhong)對(dui)大斑(ban)病(bing)，黃淮海主栽品種(zhong)對(dui)褐斑(ban)病(bing)、南方銹病(bing)等病(bing)害抗性普(pu)遍(bian)較差。但近年來黃淮海地區(qu)夏(xia)玉(yu)米清行播種(zhong)，破(po)壞了二點委夜蛾生境，可(ke)有效減輕(qing)其發生為害程度(du)。
（三）冬(dong)春季(ji)氣象條件對害蟲越冬(dong)和發生有利(li)
據(ju)國家(jia)氣候中(zhong)心預測，2018年(nian)冬季，華南、江(jiang)(jiang)南、長江(jiang)(jiang)中(zhong)下(xia)游、黃淮(huai)、西南等(deng)地(di)氣溫正常或(huo)偏高0.5－2℃，華南和(he)(he)江(jiang)(jiang)南等(deng)地(di)降(jiang)水偏多(duo)2－5成，對粘(zhan)蟲(chong)、玉米(mi)螟等(deng)害蟲(chong)越冬和(he)(he)種群繁衍有利。2019年(nian)春(chun)季，長江(jiang)(jiang)中(zhong)下(xia)游、黃淮(huai)南部(bu)等(deng)地(di)等(deng)地(di)氣溫正常或(huo)偏高、降(jiang)水偏多(duo)，對一代粘(zhan)蟲(chong)和(he)(he)玉米(mi)螟發生(sheng)為(wei)害有利。
