一、發生趨勢
根據全省果(guo)樹(shu)病(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)越冬基數和當前蟲(chong)情調查，結合省氣候中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)心(xin)春(chun)季(ji)天(tian)氣預報，綜(zong)合歷年(nian)果(guo)樹(shu)病(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)資料分析(xi)，預計今年(nian)我省果(guo)樹(shu)花芽(ya)期蘋果(guo)樹(shu)腐爛病(bing)(bing)偏(pian)重發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面積(ji)(ji)300萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)；果(guo)樹(shu)干腐病(bing)(bing)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面積(ji)(ji)80萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)；果(guo)樹(shu)輪紋(wen)病(bing)(bing)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面積(ji)(ji)100萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)；果(guo)樹(shu)白粉病(bing)(bing)偏(pian)輕發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面積(ji)(ji)150萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)；山楂葉(xie)螨中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面積(ji)(ji)300萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)；果(guo)樹(shu)蚧(jie)殼蟲(chong)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面積(ji)(ji)80萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)；金紋(wen)細蛾中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面積(ji)(ji)180萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)；蘋小卷葉(xie)蛾中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面積(ji)(ji)100萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)；梨(li)木(mu)虱偏(pian)重發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面積(ji)(ji)50萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)。
二(er)、預報依據
1.蟲源基數
果(guo)樹(shu)(shu)病(bing)(bing)(bing)害 據(ju)有(you)關測報站(zhan)近期調(diao)查，蘋果(guo)樹(shu)(shu)腐爛病(bing)(bing)(bing)一(yi)般果(guo)園(yuan)(yuan)果(guo)樹(shu)(shu)發(fa)(fa)(fa)病(bing)(bing)(bing)株(zhu)率為(wei)10%～30%，平均每株(zhu)有(you)病(bing)(bing)(bing)斑(ban)1~2個，管理差、樹(shu)(shu)齡(ling)高(gao)的果(guo)園(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)病(bing)(bing)(bing)株(zhu)率達30%~50%，平均每株(zhu)有(you)病(bing)(bing)(bing)斑(ban)3~4個，發(fa)(fa)(fa)生嚴(yan)重(zhong)的果(guo)園(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)病(bing)(bing)(bing)株(zhu)率達80%以上(shang)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)生程度(du)和面積均大于(yu)去年。果(guo)樹(shu)(shu)干腐病(bing)(bing)(bing)一(yi)般果(guo)園(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)病(bing)(bing)(bing)株(zhu)率為(wei)10%～15%，發(fa)(fa)(fa)病(bing)(bing)(bing)嚴(yan)重(zhong)的果(guo)園(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)病(bing)(bing)(bing)株(zhu)率30%，重(zhong)于(yu)去年同期。
果(guo)樹蟲害 山楂葉(xie)螨(man)3月中(zhong)旬冬后基數調查，南(nan)部平(ping)均(jun)每(mei)100cm2主桿有雌成(cheng)螨(man)1~4頭，中(zhong)部平(ping)均(jun)每(mei)100cm2主桿有雌成(cheng)螨(man)15~30頭，基數均(jun)高于去(qu)年(nian)。目前尚(shang)未出(chu)蟄。朝鮮(xian)球堅(jian)蚧3月上旬雌蟲體陸續出(chu)蟄，一般五寸枝(zhi)(zhi)條(tiao)有越冬雌蟲1~2頭，嚴(yan)重的(de)枝(zhi)(zhi)條(tiao)高達13頭，多于去(qu)年(nian)同(tong)期(qi)。
其它病(bing)蟲(chong) 鹽湖(hu)區(qu)和臨猗(yi)(yi)縣受(shou)凍嚴(yan)重的梨園(yuan)梨木虱發(fa)生較(jiao)(jiao)重。鹽湖(hu)區(qu)3月(yue)11日(ri)調查(cha)，平均(jun)百(bai)(bai)枝(zhi)(zhi)有成(cheng)(cheng)蟲(chong)56頭(tou)，最(zui)高(gao)189頭(tou)；平均(jun)百(bai)(bai)枝(zhi)(zhi)卵(luan)量(liang)645粒，最(zui)高(gao)1160粒。臨猗(yi)(yi)縣3月(yue)7日(ri)調查(cha)，百(bai)(bai)枝(zhi)(zhi)有成(cheng)(cheng)蟲(chong)20~60頭(tou)，百(bai)(bai)枝(zhi)(zhi)卵(luan)量(liang)超過160粒。成(cheng)(cheng)蟲(chong)數量(liang)和卵(luan)量(liang)遠遠高(gao)于歷(li)年。桃(tao)樹流膠(jiao)病(bing)一般(ban)發(fa)病(bing)株(zhu)率5%~8%，最(zui)高(gao)25%。桃(tao)樹干腐病(bing)一般(ban)發(fa)病(bing)株(zhu)率3%~7%，最(zui)高(gao)達20%。桑白蚧(jie)、杏球(qiu)蚧(jie)在個別(bie)桃(tao)園(yuan)、杏園(yuan)內(nei)發(fa)生較(jiao)(jiao)重。
2.氣象條(tiao)件(jian)
據(ju)省(sheng)(sheng)氣(qi)(qi)象(xiang)臺(tai)氣(qi)(qi)候(hou)預測，春季(ji)全省(sheng)(sheng)降(jiang)水(shui)量在49～117毫米(mi)之間。與常(chang)年(nian)同期相(xiang)比，運(yun)城市(shi)大(da)(da)部(bu)、忻州市(shi)大(da)(da)部(bu)、太原市(shi)西(xi)北部(bu)偏(pian)多(duo)1～2成(cheng)，其余大(da)(da)部(bu)分(fen)地區(qu)偏(pian)少1～2成(cheng)。季(ji)平均(jun)氣(qi)(qi)溫，大(da)(da)部(bu)分(fen)地市(shi)較(jiao)常(chang)年(nian)偏(pian)高0～1℃。氣(qi)(qi)溫偏(pian)高有(you)利于果樹螨類、蚧殼蟲(chong)(chong)、金紋(wen)(wen)細蛾(e)(e)、蘋小卷葉蛾(e)(e)等(deng)害(hai)蟲(chong)(chong)的(de)出(chu)蟄為害(hai)。南部(bu)大(da)(da)部(bu)地區(qu)降(jiang)水(shui)偏(pian)多(duo)有(you)利于輪紋(wen)(wen)病、金紋(wen)(wen)細蛾(e)(e)、蘋小卷葉蛾(e)(e)等(deng)病蟲(chong)(chong)的(de)發(fa)生(sheng)為害(hai)。
3.生態因素
目前我省各果(guo)(guo)區果(guo)(guo)樹(shu)正處于(yu)萌芽期，陸續將(jiang)進入花期，對營(ying)養需(xu)求較大(da)，樹(shu)勢(shi)較弱，對病(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)害抵抗(kang)能(neng)力差，為蘋果(guo)(guo)樹(shu)腐(fu)爛(lan)病(bing)、白粉病(bing)等病(bing)害的(de)侵入和擴散蔓延提供了有利(li)條件。加之上年的(de)大(da)面積霜凍，果(guo)(guo)農疏于(yu)管理，病(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)防治次數明顯減少，致使病(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)越冬基數總體較高。這些條件均有利(li)于(yu)果(guo)(guo)園病(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)害的(de)發生。
三(san)、防治(zhi)建議(yi)
1. 農業(ye)防治：及時清理果園內的(de)落(luo)(luo)葉、落(luo)(luo)果、雜草(cao)、病(bing)蟲(chong)枝、廢棄(qi)果袋和雜物，帶到園外集中(zhong)處理，消滅(mie)其中(zhong)潛藏的(de)越冬病(bing)蟲(chong)，以免造成再次侵染。
2. 化學(xue)防(fang)(fang)(fang)(fang)(fang)治(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)：①在(zai)(zai)蘋果花(hua)蕾(lei)露紅初期(qi)，熬制濃度為(wei)25°Be以(yi)(yi)上(shang)的石(shi)(shi)硫(liu)(liu)(liu)合劑(ji)(ji)(ji)，配制成5°Be的石(shi)(shi)硫(liu)(liu)(liu)合劑(ji)(ji)(ji)，或(huo)(huo)(huo)選(xuan)(xuan)(xuan)(xuan)用(yong)晶體45%的石(shi)(shi)硫(liu)(liu)(liu)合劑(ji)(ji)(ji)30~40倍(bei)液進(jin)(jin)行防(fang)(fang)(fang)(fang)(fang)治(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)。日氣(qi)(qi)溫達10℃以(yi)(yi)上(shang)（氣(qi)(qi)溫在(zai)(zai)4℃以(yi)(yi)下或(huo)(huo)(huo)32℃以(yi)(yi)上(shang)均(jun)不宜使(shi)用(yong)）時(shi)(shi)選(xuan)(xuan)(xuan)(xuan)擇晴(qing)天無風天氣(qi)(qi)，用(yong)低容量(liang)或(huo)(huo)(huo)超低容量(liang)噴(pen)霧(wu)，保證(zheng)樹(shu)(shu)體均(jun)勻著藥，可(ke)有效(xiao)防(fang)(fang)(fang)(fang)(fang)治(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)果樹(shu)(shu)葉螨、蚧殼蟲(chong)(chong)、毒蛾、白粉病(bing)、霉心病(bing)、早期(qi)落(luo)葉病(bing)等(deng)多(duo)種(zhong)病(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)害，效(xiao)果好(hao)、成本低。②也可(ke)選(xuan)(xuan)(xuan)(xuan)用(yong)殺蟲(chong)(chong)劑(ji)(ji)(ji)毒死(si)(si)蜱或(huo)(huo)(huo)辛硫(liu)(liu)(liu)磷(lin)等(deng)+殺菌(jun)(jun)劑(ji)(ji)(ji)復方多(duo)菌(jun)(jun)靈、果康寶、丙環唑(zuo)、氟(fu)硅唑(zuo)等(deng)復配劑(ji)(ji)(ji)進(jin)(jin)行均(jun)勻噴(pen)霧(wu)，可(ke)有效(xiao)防(fang)(fang)(fang)(fang)(fang)治(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)多(duo)種(zhong)病(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)害；蚧殼蟲(chong)(chong)發(fa)生重的果園可(ke)選(xuan)(xuan)(xuan)(xuan)用(yong)，吡蟲(chong)(chong)啉(lin)+毒死(si)(si)蜱或(huo)(huo)(huo)95%的礦物(wu)油(you)100~200倍(bei)液進(jin)(jin)行防(fang)(fang)(fang)(fang)(fang)治(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)。③對于腐(fu)爛(lan)病(bing)的防(fang)(fang)(fang)(fang)(fang)治(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)可(ke)在(zai)(zai)早春(chun)刮(gua)治(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)病(bing)斑，用(yong)刀將(jiang)腐(fu)爛(lan)樹(shu)(shu)皮刮(gua)凈，露出好(hao)皮后(hou)將(jiang)傷口切(qie)成齊(qi)茬，然后(hou)可(ke)選(xuan)(xuan)(xuan)(xuan)用(yong)氟(fu)硅唑(zuo)、氟(fu)環唑(zuo)、果康寶、苯醚甲環唑(zuo)等(deng)藥液進(jin)(jin)行涂(tu)抹，并注(zhu)意將(jiang)刮(gua)下的腐(fu)爛(lan)樹(shu)(shu)皮集(ji)中燒毀或(huo)(huo)(huo)深埋，以(yi)(yi)免病(bing)菌(jun)(jun)擴散(san)侵染。同(tong)時(shi)(shi)注(zhu)意及時(shi)(shi)防(fang)(fang)(fang)(fang)(fang)治(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)春(chun)季果樹(shu)(shu)凍害，減(jian)輕腐(fu)爛(lan)病(bing)的發(fa)生。④梨(li)(li)木虱可(ke)選(xuan)(xuan)(xuan)(xuan)用(yong)對成蟲(chong)(chong)和(he)卵(luan)(luan)都有防(fang)(fang)(fang)(fang)(fang)治(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)效(xiao)果的藥劑(ji)(ji)(ji)，或(huo)(huo)(huo)者采用(yong)兩種(zhong)殺蟲(chong)(chong)劑(ji)(ji)(ji)混合使(shi)用(yong)。根據今年梨(li)(li)木虱發(fa)生特(te)點，應組織(zhi)開(kai)展四次(ci)防(fang)(fang)(fang)(fang)(fang)治(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)。3月中旬(xun)進(jin)(jin)行第(di)一(yi)次(ci)防(fang)(fang)(fang)(fang)(fang)治(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)，可(ke)選(xuan)(xuan)(xuan)(xuan)用(yong)阿(a)維菌(jun)(jun)素加(jia)(jia)吡丙醚或(huo)(huo)(huo)虱螨脲等(deng)，殺死(si)(si)越(yue)冬成蟲(chong)(chong)，減(jian)少產卵(luan)(luan)量(liang)，降(jiang)低卵(luan)(luan)孵(fu)(fu)化率(lv)。或(huo)(huo)(huo)噴(pen)施3～5°Be石(shi)(shi)硫(liu)(liu)(liu)合劑(ji)(ji)(ji)，降(jiang)低卵(luan)(luan)孵(fu)(fu)化率(lv)。第(di)二次(ci)防(fang)(fang)(fang)(fang)(fang)治(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)時(shi)(shi)間選(xuan)(xuan)(xuan)(xuan)擇在(zai)(zai)梨(li)(li)樹(shu)(shu)中心花(hua)露白時(shi)(shi)，選(xuan)(xuan)(xuan)(xuan)用(yong)煙堿類藥劑(ji)(ji)(ji)如噻蟲(chong)(chong)嗪加(jia)(jia)上(shang)吡丙醚等(deng)，防(fang)(fang)(fang)(fang)(fang)治(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)成蟲(chong)(chong)、初孵(fu)(fu)若蟲(chong)(chong)和(he)卵(luan)(luan)。在(zai)(zai)梨(li)(li)樹(shu)(shu)落(luo)花(hua)80%左右時(shi)(shi)開(kai)展第(di)三次(ci)防(fang)(fang)(fang)(fang)(fang)治(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)，此時(shi)(shi)正是是梨(li)(li)木虱卵(luan)(luan)孵(fu)(fu)化高峰(feng)期(qi)，選(xuan)(xuan)(xuan)(xuan)用(yong)煙堿類農(nong)藥呋蟲(chong)(chong)胺(an)(an)加(jia)(jia)苦參堿或(huo)(huo)(huo)吡蚜酮，防(fang)(fang)(fang)(fang)(fang)治(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)若蟲(chong)(chong)，同(tong)時(shi)(shi)兼治(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)梨(li)(li)莖蜂。在(zai)(zai)第(di)三次(ci)防(fang)(fang)(fang)(fang)(fang)治(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)后(hou)7~10天進(jin)(jin)行第(di)四次(ci)防(fang)(fang)(fang)(fang)(fang)治(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)，用(yong)螺蟲(chong)(chong)乙(yi)酯或(huo)(huo)(huo)呋蟲(chong)(chong)胺(an)(an)再防(fang)(fang)(fang)(fang)(fang)治(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)一(yi)次(ci)。防(fang)(fang)(fang)(fang)(fang)治(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)時(shi)(shi)間應選(xuan)(xuan)(xuan)(xuan)擇中午氣(qi)(qi)溫較高時(shi)(shi)進(jin)(jin)行。
另外，果樹展(zhan)葉后，選用磷酸二氫鉀(jia)、尿素、旱(han)地龍、海島(dao)素、蕓苔素內酯等(deng)葉面噴施，可大(da)(da)大(da)(da)提高果樹的抗(kang)病蟲、抗(kang)凍等(deng)抗(kang)逆能力。
