種子、農藥、化肥是農業發展三大要素,繼種子板塊后,農藥板塊近期暴漲,G大成、G華陽、G海利、沙隆達、G紅太陽等農藥股均表現強勁。全球“股王”巴菲特和“投資神童”羅杰斯最近不約而同地拋售有色金屬,狂買農產品,兩位投資權威深諳全球人口越來越多,但耕地卻不斷被征用,農產品的 供(gong)應將(jiang)會越來越緊張,人類可以不(bu)花不(bu)玩,但(dan)不(bu)可能不(bu)吃,生存權(quan)永遠擺在第(di)一(yi)位,一(yi)有風吹草動,脆弱的(de)(de)農(nong)(nong)產品價格就會暴漲,農(nong)(nong)業(ye)概(gai)念股(gu)正成(cheng)為下一(yi)個有色金屬。農(nong)(nong)業(ye)產量(liang)的(de)(de)提高(gao)客觀上與農(nong)(nong)藥(yao)(yao)(yao)效率相(xiang)關(guan),農(nong)(nong)業(ye)興旺,對(dui)農(nong)(nong)藥(yao)(yao)(yao)的(de)(de)需(xu)求(qiu)必定大(da)(da)增,所(suo)以農(nong)(nong)藥(yao)(yao)(yao)板塊(kuai)成(cheng)為繼種子(zi)板塊(kuai)后(hou)又(you)一(yi)暴漲品種,G江(jiang)山(shan)(shan)(600389)作為國內(nei)農(nong)(nong)藥(yao)(yao)(yao)之王,連續3年農(nong)(nong)藥(yao)(yao)(yao)產銷量(liang)居(ju)全國第(di)一(yi)名,農(nong)(nong)業(ye)興旺,對(dui)農(nong)(nong)藥(yao)(yao)(yao)的(de)(de)需(xu)求(qiu)必定大(da)(da)增,而第(di)二季度開(kai)始(shi),G江(jiang)山(shan)(shan)進入生產和銷售的(de)(de)旺季,中(zhong)期業(ye)績有望突飛猛進,成(cheng)為農(nong)(nong)藥(yao)(yao)(yao)板塊(kuai)的(de)(de)新龍頭。
G江(jiang)山(shan)去年(nian)農(nong)(nong)藥(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)產(chan)(chan)銷量(liang)居(ju)全(quan)(quan)(quan)國(guo)(guo)第一(yi)(yi)(yi)名,折百農(nong)(nong)藥(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)總(zong)量(liang)高(gao)達32760噸(dun)(dun),農(nong)(nong)藥(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)產(chan)(chan)銷量(liang)已(yi)(yi)連續三(san)年(nian)居(ju)全(quan)(quan)(quan)國(guo)(guo)同(tong)行(xing)業第一(yi)(yi)(yi),公(gong)(gong)司除草(cao)(cao)劑(ji)、殺(sha)(sha)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)劑(ji)、殺(sha)(sha)菌(jun)劑(ji)、種(zhong)衣劑(ji)等(deng)高(gao)效(xiao)農(nong)(nong)藥(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao),年(nian)生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)能(neng)力為(wei)4萬(wan)噸(dun)(dun),其中(zhong)敵百蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)、久效(xiao)磷(lin)、丁(ding)草(cao)(cao)胺(an)、草(cao)(cao)甘膦等(deng)單(dan)項(xiang)(xiang)農(nong)(nong)藥(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)位居(ju)全(quan)(quan)(quan)國(guo)(guo)前三(san)名,公(gong)(gong)司的(de)(de)(de)“江(jiang)山(shan)”品牌是(shi)(shi)全(quan)(quan)(quan)國(guo)(guo)馳名商標。我國(guo)(guo)已(yi)(yi)成(cheng)(cheng)立了南、北(bei)二個農(nong)(nong)藥(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)開(kai)發(fa)研(yan)制(zhi)中(zhong)心(xin),而北(bei)方農(nong)(nong)藥(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)開(kai)發(fa)研(yan)制(zhi)中(zhong)心(xin)的(de)(de)(de)核心(xin)成(cheng)(cheng)員天津市(shi)綠保農(nong)(nong)用化學科(ke)技開(kai)發(fa)有限公(gong)(gong)司和(he)沈陽(yang)化工(資訊 行(xing)情 論壇)研(yan)究院是(shi)(shi)G江(jiang)山(shan)的(de)(de)(de)股(gu)東,因此G江(jiang)山(shan)在(zai)研(yan)制(zhi)開(kai)發(fa)新型(xing)高(gao)效(xiao)低(di)毒(du)低(di)殘留農(nong)(nong)藥(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)方面具(ju)(ju)有較為(wei)明(ming)顯的(de)(de)(de)優勢。G江(jiang)山(shan)積極發(fa)展高(gao)效(xiao)、低(di)毒(du)、廣(guang)譜經(jing)濟的(de)(de)(de)新品種(zhong)和(he)復配劑(ji)型(xing),填補國(guo)(guo)內空白,替(ti)代(dai)進(jin)口(kou),種(zhong)衣劑(ji)是(shi)(shi)一(yi)(yi)(yi)種(zhong)新的(de)(de)(de)農(nong)(nong)藥(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)劑(ji)型(xing),是(shi)(shi)我國(guo)(guo)“種(zhong)子工程(cheng)”重要(yao)的(de)(de)(de)組成(cheng)(cheng)部分(fen),可防治作物苗期病蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)害,且是(shi)(shi)植物生(sheng)長調節(jie)劑(ji),在(zai)同(tong)樣條(tiao)件下可增產(chan)(chan)15%,我國(guo)(guo)種(zhong)衣劑(ji)需(xu)求量(liang)為(wei)14萬(wan)噸(dun)(dun),而總(zong)生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)能(neng)力還(huan)不到2萬(wan)噸(dun)(dun),G江(jiang)山(shan)上馬依托(tuo)聯合國(guo)(guo)劑(ji)型(xing)中(zhong)心(xin)國(guo)(guo)際先進(jin)技術的(de)(de)(de)5000噸(dun)(dun)/年(nian)種(zhong)衣劑(ji)建設(she)項(xiang)(xiang)目(mu),具(ju)(ju)有十(shi)分(fen)廣(guang)闊的(de)(de)(de)市(shi)場前景(jing)。精喹禾靈是(shi)(shi)超高(gao)效(xiao)旱田除草(cao)(cao)劑(ji),主要(yao)用于棉花、大(da)豆(dou)、蘋果和(he)葡萄(tao)等(deng)六十(shi)多種(zhong)闊葉作物田間殺(sha)(sha)滅雜草(cao)(cao),國(guo)(guo)內年(nian)需(xu)求量(liang)約在(zai)600噸(dun)(dun),長期以來一(yi)(yi)(yi)直依賴于進(jin)口(kou),G江(jiang)山(shan)年(nian)產(chan)(chan)200噸(dun)(dun)精喹禾靈技術改造項(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)已(yi)(yi)投產(chan)(chan),可滿足(zu)國(guo)(guo)內1/3的(de)(de)(de)需(xu)求。乙蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)脒為(wei)吡(bi)啶類(lei)(lei)含氮雜環化合物,是(shi)(shi)新一(yi)(yi)(yi)代(dai)高(gao)效(xiao)、強內吸性煙堿類(lei)(lei)殺(sha)(sha)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)劑(ji),具(ju)(ju)有殺(sha)(sha)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)譜廣(guang)、活性高(gao)、用量(liang)少(shao)、持效(xiao)長而速效(xiao)等(deng)優點(dian),符合二十(shi)一(yi)(yi)(yi)世紀對(dui)農(nong)(nong)藥(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)的(de)(de)(de)需(xu)求,是(shi)(shi)替(ti)代(dai)國(guo)(guo)內高(gao)毒(du)、高(gao)抗性的(de)(de)(de)有機磷(lin)、氨基(ji)甲酸酯類(lei)(lei)及合成(cheng)(cheng)擬除蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)菊的(de)(de)(de)理想品種(zhong),可用于蔬(shu)菜、瓜類(lei)(lei)、煙草(cao)(cao)、馬鈴薯(shu)、果樹等(deng)作物,亦可作為(wei)種(zhong)子處理劑(ji),具(ju)(ju)有很(hen)好的(de)(de)(de)市(shi)場前景(jing)。G江(jiang)山(shan)現(xian)已(yi)(yi)形成(cheng)(cheng)年(nian)產(chan)(chan)200噸(dun)(dun)乙蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)脒的(de)(de)(de)生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)能(neng)力,國(guo)(guo)內農(nong)(nong)藥(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)之王的(de)(de)(de)地位穩如泰山(shan)。
G江山利用一季度處于銷售淡季的時機,2月份對生產線采取策略性停車,進行檢修和技改擴能,為二季度的生產銷售旺季打下基礎,即使這樣,公司一季度業績依然不俗,中報就更值得期待了。G江山還研究開發煙酰亞胺系列新型超高效殺蟲劑烯啶蟲胺等、含氮雜環系列新型超高效殺蟲劑氟蟲腈等、光學活性芳氧羧酸酯系列超高效除草劑等產品,無論規模和質量都優于國內其他廠家,連續三年居全國同行業第一。農藥板塊近日全線飆升,G江山作為農藥第一股,05年每股收益達到0.30元,流通盤僅7100萬股,升幅嚴重滯后,配合公司二季度開始進入生產銷售旺季,業績將會有可觀增長,后市值得重點關注。科德投資 張旭暉
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