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　3月22－24日召開了山東省(sheng)(sheng)農作(zuo)物病蟲(chong)發生趨勢會(hui)商會(hui),與會(hui)專家根據病蟲(chong)基數、氣象條件、作(zuo)物布局(ju)及長勢等情況，結(jie)合歷史資料，經綜合分析(xi)會(hui)商，對全省(sheng)(sheng)2007年上半年農作(zuo)物主要(yao)病蟲(chong)發生趨勢預報如(ru)下(xia)。

　　1、小麥病蟲  總體呈偏重發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)趨勢，主(zhu)要有小麥(mai)條(tiao)銹病(bing)、麥(mai)蚜(ya)(ya)、吸(xi)漿蟲以及紋枯病(bing)、白粉(fen)病(bing)、麥(mai)蜘蛛等(deng)。預計全省條(tiao)銹病(bing)在(zai)魯西(xi)南(nan)地區(qu)中(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，魯西(xi)、魯南(nan)偏輕發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，其他地區(qu)輕發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)500萬畝次(ci)(ci)；麥(mai)蚜(ya)(ya)為大(da)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)趨勢，東部麥(mai)區(qu)中(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)偏重發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)5000萬畝次(ci)(ci)。吸(xi)漿蟲發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)程度將進(jin)一步加重，發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)范(fan)圍繼續擴大(da)；紋枯病(bing)中(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，部分地區(qu)偏重發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)3000萬畝次(ci)(ci)；白粉(fen)病(bing)中(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，感病(bing)品種和稻茬(cha)麥(mai)偏重發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)2000萬畝次(ci)(ci)；小麥(mai)其他病(bing)蟲中(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)或中(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)以下發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)程度，赤霉病(bing)若(ruo)小麥(mai)揚花期遇(yu)連陰(yin)雨天(tian)氣有中(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)流(liu)行可能。

　　小(xiao)(xiao)麥(mai)(mai)病(bing)(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)基數總(zong)體(ti)(ti)偏(pian)高(gao)(gao)。今年(nian)(nian)(nian)小(xiao)(xiao)麥(mai)(mai)條(tiao)(tiao)銹(xiu)病(bing)(bing)(bing)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)早(zao)，病(bing)(bing)(bing)情重(zhong)(zhong)，蔓延快。云(yun)南(nan)(nan)、貴州(zhou)(zhou)、四川和(he)重(zhong)(zhong)慶等西南(nan)(nan)地(di)區(qu)已(yi)經(jing)出現大(da)流行(xing)。據(ju)農業部監測，截(jie)止2月26日(ri)，四川、云(yun)南(nan)(nan)、貴州(zhou)(zhou)、重(zhong)(zhong)慶、陜西、甘(gan)肅、湖北、河南(nan)(nan)等麥(mai)(mai)區(qu)214個縣（市、區(qu)）發(fa)病(bing)(bing)(bing)，見(jian)病(bing)(bing)(bing)面積達1150萬(wan)畝。我省已(yi)具備了大(da)流行(xing)的菌(jun)源條(tiao)(tiao)件，而我省當前主栽品種對目前流行(xing)的具有(you)高(gao)(gao)致病(bing)(bing)(bing)性的條(tiao)(tiao)銹(xiu)病(bing)(bing)(bing)菌(jun)生(sheng)(sheng)理小(xiao)(xiao)種條(tiao)(tiao)中30、31、32號缺(que)乏抗性，小(xiao)(xiao)麥(mai)(mai)條(tiao)(tiao)銹(xiu)病(bing)(bing)(bing)流行(xing)的潛(qian)在威脅很(hen)大(da)。小(xiao)(xiao)麥(mai)(mai)紋枯(ku)病(bing)(bing)(bing)病(bing)(bing)(bing)田率一般(ban)(ban)(ban)30-80%，病(bing)(bing)(bing)株(zhu)率一般(ban)(ban)(ban)5～30%，由(you)于秋冬季持續干(gan)旱，發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)較常(chang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)偏(pian)輕(qing)。小(xiao)(xiao)麥(mai)(mai)白粉病(bing)(bing)(bing)、葉(xie)銹(xiu)病(bing)(bing)(bing)在菏(he)澤、煙臺、威海、青島部分(fen)縣市已(yi)發(fa)現病(bing)(bing)(bing)葉(xie)，發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)期較常(chang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)偏(pian)早(zao)。吸漿蟲(chong)、麥(mai)(mai)蚜、紅蜘(zhi)蛛越冬基數均(jun)高(gao)(gao)于常(chang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)。小(xiao)(xiao)麥(mai)(mai)吸漿蟲(chong)冬前淘(tao)土調查，常(chang)發(fa)區(qu)一般(ban)(ban)(ban)每樣方有(you)蟲(chong)2－11頭(tou)(tou)(tou)，東平、汶(wen)上密度較大(da)，平均(jun)每樣方有(you)蟲(chong)分(fen)別(bie)為96頭(tou)(tou)(tou)和(he)28.42頭(tou)(tou)(tou)，最高(gao)(gao)點分(fen)別(bie)達313頭(tou)(tou)(tou)和(he)150頭(tou)(tou)(tou)。麥(mai)(mai)蚜平均(jun)百株(zhu)蚜量3-10頭(tou)(tou)(tou)，麥(mai)(mai)蜘(zhi)蛛一般(ban)(ban)(ban)33厘(li)米單行(xing)有(you)蟲(chong)10-20頭(tou)(tou)(tou)。另外，由(you)于去(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)麥(mai)(mai)播以來(lai)，氣(qi)溫(wen)偏(pian)高(gao)(gao)，麥(mai)(mai)苗早(zao)發(fa)快長，群體(ti)(ti)偏(pian)大(da)，旺(wang)長現象(xiang)比較突出；3月上旬全(quan)省出現寒(han)潮(chao)降溫(wen)天氣(qi)，部分(fen)麥(mai)(mai)田出現了凍害，小(xiao)(xiao)麥(mai)(mai)抗逆能力減弱，有(you)利(li)于病(bing)(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)危害。4-5月份氣(qi)象(xiang)預報，氣(qi)候條(tiao)(tiao)件對小(xiao)(xiao)麥(mai)(mai)病(bing)(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)無不利(li)影響。

　　2、棉花病蟲  總體呈中(zhong)等(deng)(deng)(deng)(deng)至(zhi)偏(pian)重(zhong)趨勢。主要有棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)鈴(ling)蟲、棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)盲蝽(chun)(chun)、棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)苗蚜、棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)苗病、棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)花(hua)(hua)黃(huang)枯(ku)萎(wei)病等(deng)(deng)(deng)(deng)。其(qi)中(zhong)二代棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)鈴(ling)蟲大(da)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng),局部(bu)偏(pian)重(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)1400萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)。一代為輕(qing)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)2300萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)；棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)苗蚜預計純作棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)田中(zhong)等(deng)(deng)(deng)(deng)偏(pian)重(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，套種棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)中(zhong)等(deng)(deng)(deng)(deng)偏(pian)輕(qing)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)850萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)。棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)盲蝽(chun)(chun)中(zhong)等(deng)(deng)(deng)(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)1000萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)；棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)花(hua)(hua)黃(huang)枯(ku)萎(wei)病中(zhong)等(deng)(deng)(deng)(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)300萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)；棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)苗病中(zhong)等(deng)(deng)(deng)(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)650萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)；棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)葉螨偏(pian)輕(qing)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)400萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)。

　　主要依(yi)據：隨著抗蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)棉(mian)(mian)的(de)多(duo)年(nian)(nian)種(zhong)植，棉(mian)(mian)鈴(ling)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)產(chan)生(sheng)了(le)一定(ding)的(de)抗性(xing)，同時由(you)于(yu)農(nong)民自留種(zhong)和(he)高(gao)代次棉(mian)(mian)、混雜棉(mian)(mian)等種(zhong)子(zi)純(chun)度問(wen)題，棉(mian)(mian)花對(dui)(dui)棉(mian)(mian)鈴(ling)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)抗性(xing)降(jiang)低，近(jin)(jin)(jin)兩年(nian)(nian)來(lai)棉(mian)(mian)鈴(ling)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)在我省出(chu)現(xian)強(qiang)勢(shi)(shi)反彈(dan)，魯(lu)西北地(di)區二代棉(mian)(mian)鈴(ling)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)為害嚴重(zhong)。據17個區域測報站調查，棉(mian)(mian)鈴(ling)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)越冬總(zong)(zong)蛹量(liang)(liang)76733.6萬(wan)頭，比近(jin)(jin)(jin)三年(nian)(nian)的(de)平均總(zong)(zong)蛹量(liang)(liang)49736.5萬(wan)頭增加(jia)54.3％，越冬基數遠高(gao)于(yu)近(jin)(jin)(jin)幾年(nian)(nian)；據省氣(qi)象(xiang)臺(tai)的(de)氣(qi)象(xiang)資料，今(jin)年(nian)(nian)冬春(chun)(chun)氣(qi)溫偏(pian)高(gao)，冬季降(jiang)水(shui)偏(pian)少，春(chun)(chun)季降(jiang)水(shui)略(lve)偏(pian)多(duo)，對(dui)(dui)其發生(sheng)較(jiao)有(you)利。轉Bt基因抗蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)棉(mian)(mian)的(de)普遍種(zhong)植，棉(mian)(mian)田用藥(yao)次數減少，造成棉(mian)(mian)盲蝽的(de)發生(sheng)逐年(nian)(nian)加(jia)重(zhong)，近(jin)(jin)(jin)年(nian)(nian)來(lai)成為棉(mian)(mian)田主要害蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)。由(you)于(yu)連年(nian)(nian)重(zhong)茬(cha)種(zhong)植，棉(mian)(mian)苗病(bing)和(he)黃(huang)枯萎病(bing)有(you)逐年(nian)(nian)加(jia)重(zhong)趨勢(shi)(shi)，但氣(qi)象(xiang)條件對(dui)(dui)其有(you)一定(ding)抑(yi)制作用。

　　3、東亞飛蝗  預計2007年(nian)我省東亞飛蝗(huang)夏蝗(huang)總體(ti)中等發生(sheng)(sheng)，沿海蝗(huang)區偏重發生(sheng)(sheng)，沿海蝗(huang)區和黃(huang)河灘區局部(bu)將出(chu)現(xian)高密度蝗(huang)片，預計全省夏蝗(huang)發生(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積430萬畝(mu)，其(qi)中達到防治指(zhi)標面(mian)積約380萬畝(mu)。

　　東(dong)亞飛蝗(huang)的(de)發(fa)(fa)生程度(du)與(yu)秋(qiu)(qiu)殘(can)蝗(huang)的(de)面積、密(mi)度(du)呈密(mi)切(qie)相(xiang)關關系。由于(yu)(yu)秋(qiu)(qiu)季部分蝗(huang)區積水(shui)，殘(can)蝗(huang)調(diao)查(cha)困難，9月(yue)下旬全(quan)省普查(cha)面積560萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)，殘(can)蝗(huang)面積203.19萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu), 一般密(mi)度(du)為20-30頭/畝(mu)(mu)，最高密(mi)度(du)達(da)每畝(mu)(mu)300多(duo)頭。殘(can)蝗(huang)面積少于(yu)(yu)去年(nian)(nian)(nian)，高于(yu)(yu)常(chang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)，殘(can)蝗(huang)密(mi)度(du)低(di)于(yu)(yu)大發(fa)(fa)生1998-2003年(nian)(nian)(nian)，但高于(yu)(yu)去年(nian)(nian)(nian)和常(chang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)； 9月(yue)-11月(yue)份(fen)氣(qi)溫偏高，蝗(huang)區植被較好，延長(chang)了蝗(huang)蟲(chong)產卵(luan)(luan)(luan)期，有利(li)于(yu)(yu)蝗(huang)蟲(chong)產卵(luan)(luan)(luan)。冬季氣(qi)溫偏高，降(jiang)水(shui)偏少，有利(li)于(yu)(yu)蝗(huang)卵(luan)(luan)(luan)越(yue)冬發(fa)(fa)育；春(chun)季挖卵(luan)(luan)(luan)結果表明:有卵(luan)(luan)(luan)點數增(zeng)加，單(dan)塊(kuai)卵(luan)(luan)(luan)的(de)卵(luan)(luan)(luan)粒數增(zeng)多(duo)，越(yue)冬死亡率降(jiang)低(di)。2007年(nian)(nian)(nian)夏(xia)蝗(huang)發(fa)(fa)生形(xing)勢依然比較嚴峻。

　　4、玉米病蟲  中等發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，其中一代玉米(mi)(mi)螟偏(pian)重發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，二(er)代偏(pian)輕(qing)(qing)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)；玉米(mi)(mi)薊(ji)馬中等發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)；玉米(mi)(mi)粗(cu)縮病(bing)在(zai)早(zao)套玉米(mi)(mi)上偏(pian)輕(qing)(qing)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)；二(er)代粘蟲(chong)在(zai)局(ju)部可能造(zao)成為害。

　　5、蔬菜病蟲 ; 中(zhong)(zhong)等發生(sheng)，其中(zhong)(zhong)黃(huang)瓜霜霉病(bing)中(zhong)(zhong)等發生(sheng)，局部偏(pian)重發生(sheng)；菜(cai)(cai)(cai)蚜中(zhong)(zhong)等發生(sheng)；番茄早(zao)（晚）疫病(bing)、菜(cai)(cai)(cai)青蟲、小菜(cai)(cai)(cai)蛾(e)、溫室(shi)白粉(fen)虱、潛葉蠅中(zhong)(zhong)等發生(sheng)，局部偏(pian)輕(qing)發生(sheng)；蔬菜(cai)(cai)(cai)灰霉病(bing)、紅(hong)蜘蛛偏(pian)輕(qing)發生(sheng)；黃(huang)瓜細(xi)菌性角斑(ban)病(bing)蔬菜(cai)(cai)(cai)病(bing)毒病(bing)輕(qing)發生(sheng)，局部中(zhong)(zhong)等偏(pian)輕(qing)發生(sheng)。

　　6、果樹病蟲  中等(deng)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)，其中蘋果(guo)腐(fu)爛病(bing)(bing)、蘋果(guo)黃蚜、蘋果(guo)全爪螨、梨木虱為(wei)中等(deng)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)；葡萄霜霉病(bing)(bing)中等(deng)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)，局(ju)部(bu)偏重發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)；蘋果(guo)斑點(dian)落(luo)葉(xie)病(bing)(bing)、梨黑(hei)星病(bing)(bing)、山楂(zha)葉(xie)螨偏輕發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)，局(ju)部(bu)中等(deng)；蘋果(guo)輪(lun)紋(wen)病(bing)(bing)、桃小(xiao)食心蟲、金(jin)紋(wen)細(xi)蛾偏輕發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)。

附圖：主要病蟲發生趨勢圖