油料(liao)供(gong)應短缺(que)，成(cheng)本拉動(dong)價格(ge)上漲(zhang)的(de)趨勢難以逆轉(zhuan)。今(jin)年油菜(cai)(cai)供(gong)需缺(que)口將(jiang)進一步擴大。受國(guo)家利好(hao)政策和市(shi)場價格(ge)大幅上漲(zhang)影(ying)響，去(qu)年秋冬(dong)油菜(cai)(cai)播種面(mian)積(ji)恢復(fu)性(xing)增長，比上年增加1050萬(wan)畝，達到1.01億畝，其中“雙低”優質油菜(cai)(cai)占85%。
減產已成定局
但(dan)是(shi)，由于冬前大(da)部分(fen)油(you)(you)菜(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)主產(chan)區遭受(shou)(shou)(shou)嚴重(zhong)干旱，播(bo)栽較(jiao)遲，生(sheng)長遲緩，普遍苗(miao)(miao)小、苗(miao)(miao)弱，且高腳苗(miao)(miao)數量多，苗(miao)(miao)情較(jiao)差，抗凍能力弱，此次(ci)遭受(shou)(shou)(shou)凍害最為嚴重(zhong)，受(shou)(shou)(shou)災(zai)(zai)面積(ji)達4891萬(wan)畝，占(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)全(quan)國(guo)冬油(you)(you)菜(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)面積(ji)的48.4%，其(qi)中成災(zai)(zai)2777萬(wan)畝，絕(jue)(jue)收(shou)615萬(wan)畝。據專家初步測算，此次(ci)因(yin)災(zai)(zai)損(sun)失油(you)(you)菜(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)籽180萬(wan)噸(dun)，再加上(shang)災(zai)(zai)后漬害、病蟲害等(deng)影響，全(quan)年油(you)(you)菜(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)減產(chan)已成定局。以油(you)(you)菜(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)生(sheng)產(chan)大(da)省湖北(bei)為例，2007年秋(qiu)播(bo)油(you)(you)菜(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)種(zhong)植(zhi)面積(ji)1841萬(wan)畝，比(bi)上(shang)年增加241萬(wan)畝，油(you)(you)菜(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)生(sheng)產(chan)扭轉了連續三年下滑的勢頭。但(dan)冰凍雨雪(xue)災(zai)(zai)害使全(quan)省油(you)(you)菜(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)受(shou)(shou)(shou)災(zai)(zai)800萬(wan)畝，占(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)油(you)(you)菜(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)種(zhong)植(zhi)面積(ji)的43%。隨(sui)著(zhu)氣候轉暖，受(shou)(shou)(shou)凍油(you)(you)菜(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)還將(jiang)出現(xian)各種(zhong)病害，油(you)(you)菜(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)減產(chan)和(he)絕(jue)(jue)收(shou)面積(ji)將(jiang)會(hui)進一步擴大(da)。湖北(bei)省是(shi)油(you)(you)菜(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)主要產(chan)區，油(you)(you)菜(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)產(chan)量約占(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)全(quan)國(guo)總產(chan)量的18%，此次(ci)油(you)(you)菜(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)生(sheng)產(chan)受(shou)(shou)(shou)災(zai)(zai)嚴重(zhong)，對全(quan)年油(you)(you)料供應將(jiang)會(hui)產(chan)生(sheng)不利影響，油(you)(you)料供需缺(que)口(kou)將(jiang)進一步加大(da)。
農資價格暴漲
產(chan)量不(bu)足的(de)(de)同(tong)時，油料的(de)(de)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)資(zi)(zi)(zi)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)也在(zai)暴(bao)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)。一是農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)資(zi)(zi)(zi)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)偏高(gao)且(qie)供(gong)應不(bu)足。突(tu)出地表現在(zai)三(san)個方面：其一，農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)資(zi)(zi)(zi)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)上(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)過快。由于(yu)國(guo)際市場化(hua)(hua)(hua)肥(fei)(fei)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)暴(bao)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)和農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)資(zi)(zi)(zi)原料成(cheng)本上(shang)升等因素影(ying)響，進(jin)入2007年9月份，以(yi)化(hua)(hua)(hua)肥(fei)(fei)為主的(de)(de)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)資(zi)(zi)(zi)產(chan)品價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)大幅上(shang)揚。據(ju)吉林省供(gong)銷社最近調(diao)(diao)查：尿素到(dao)(dao)(dao)站價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)1850元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)，同(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)幅達(da)19%；進(jin)口(kou)磷酸二(er)銨(an)到(dao)(dao)(dao)岸價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)4800元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)，同(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)幅達(da)65%；含(han)量60%俄(e)羅斯產(chan)氯化(hua)(hua)(hua)鉀到(dao)(dao)(dao)站價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)3300元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)，同(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)幅達(da)43%；殺蟲(chong)劑平均(jun)上(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)10%左(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)右(you)，除草劑平均(jun)上(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)20%左(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)右(you)；農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)膜平均(jun)上(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)8%左(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)右(you)。部分地區零號(hao)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)用柴油平均(jun)市場價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)6000元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)左(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)右(you)，同(tong)比(bi)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)幅達(da)20%。與(yu)2007年3月相比(bi)，農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)資(zi)(zi)(zi)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)平均(jun)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)幅30%左(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)右(you)。據(ju)黑(hei)龍江省農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)委調(diao)(diao)查測算，由于(yu)生(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)資(zi)(zi)(zi)料價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)上(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)，黑(hei)龍江省畝均(jun)生(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)成(cheng)本增(zeng)(zeng)加25-30元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)。其二(er)，農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)資(zi)(zi)(zi)調(diao)(diao)運(yun)不(bu)足。吉林、黑(hei)龍江省磷復(fu)肥(fei)(fei)等貨源主要(yao)依賴西南省份，農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)資(zi)(zi)(zi)外調(diao)(diao)和進(jin)口(kou)缺口(kou)很大，吉林省年需化(hua)(hua)(hua)肥(fei)(fei)450萬(wan)標(biao)噸(dun)，其中省內(nei)(nei)化(hua)(hua)(hua)肥(fei)(fei)廠家(jia)供(gong)貨120萬(wan)標(biao)噸(dun)，外調(diao)(diao)和進(jin)口(kou)330萬(wan)標(biao)噸(dun)。吉林省2007年底(di)化(hua)(hua)(hua)肥(fei)(fei)社會儲(chu)備量不(bu)到(dao)(dao)(dao)100萬(wan)標(biao)噸(dun)，不(bu)到(dao)(dao)(dao)上(shang)年同(tong)期的(de)(de)50%，貨源明顯不(bu)足，后市化(hua)(hua)(hua)肥(fei)(fei)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)依舊(jiu)看漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)。其三(san)，農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)資(zi)(zi)(zi)出口(kou)加劇供(gong)求(qiu)失(shi)衡(heng)。由于(yu)我國(guo)目(mu)前的(de)(de)石(shi)油價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)與(yu)國(guo)際價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)嚴重倒掛，化(hua)(hua)(hua)肥(fei)(fei)、農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)膜等農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)業(ye)生(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)資(zi)(zi)(zi)料作(zuo)為石(shi)油的(de)(de)下游產(chan)品，與(yu)國(guo)際市場價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)存在(zai)明顯價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)差(cha)，如目(mu)前國(guo)內(nei)(nei)磷復(fu)肥(fei)(fei)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)雖(sui)然較高(gao)，但仍低于(yu)國(guo)際市場30%以(yi)上(shang)，刺激國(guo)內(nei)(nei)化(hua)(hua)(hua)肥(fei)(fei)廠家(jia)擴大出口(kou)以(yi)獲(huo)取更多利潤(run)，加劇了國(guo)內(nei)(nei)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)資(zi)(zi)(zi)供(gong)求(qiu)失(shi)衡(heng)。
