一、發生趨勢：預計(ji)水(shui)稻(dao)(dao)條紋葉枯病沿淮(huai)、江淮(huai)部分(fen)稻(dao)(dao)區(qu)(qu)的單季粳稻(dao)(dao)、糯稻(dao)(dao)；江淮(huai)、沿江部分(fen)稻(dao)(dao)區(qu)(qu)、皖東南局部稻(dao)(dao)區(qu)(qu)的早稻(dao)(dao)將(jiang)偏重發生；全省單季中(zhong)秈稻(dao)(dao)大部分(fen)稻(dao)(dao)區(qu)(qu)將(jiang)偏輕(qing)至中(zhong)等發生。
二、預報依據：
1、水稻條紋葉枯(ku)病(bing)傳(chuan)毒(du)介體灰飛虱(shi)蟲口基(ji)數麥(mai)田發生數量(liang)各地(di)差異較大，其(qi)中沿淮、江(jiang)(jiang)淮部分稻區、沿江(jiang)(jiang)局(ju)部稻區等地(di)數量(liang)高，其(qi)它部分稻區數量(liang)偏低或接近常年(nian)。
近期調查麥田灰飛(fei)虱(shi)蟲(chong)(chong)口基(ji)數(shu)發(fa)生數(shu)量(liang)(liang)，桐城(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)市、廬江縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、懷遠(yuan)縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、蕪湖縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、廣德(de)縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、鳳(feng)(feng)(feng)陽(yang)縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、鳳(feng)(feng)(feng)臺縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、繁昌縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、舒城(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)發(fa)生數(shu)量(liang)(liang)高，每(mei)畝蟲(chong)(chong)量(liang)(liang)分(fen)別(bie)(bie)為(wei)118.4萬(wan)(wan)頭(tou)(tou)(tou)、70.1萬(wan)(wan)頭(tou)(tou)(tou)、65.4萬(wan)(wan)頭(tou)(tou)(tou)、36.3萬(wan)(wan)頭(tou)(tou)(tou)、17.6萬(wan)(wan)頭(tou)(tou)(tou)、17.7萬(wan)(wan)頭(tou)(tou)(tou)、15萬(wan)(wan)頭(tou)(tou)(tou)、14.8萬(wan)(wan)頭(tou)(tou)(tou)、11.79萬(wan)(wan)頭(tou)(tou)(tou)，其(qi)中廣德(de)縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、鳳(feng)(feng)(feng)陽(yang)縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)分(fen)別(bie)(bie)是去(qu)年同(tong)(tong)期的3.9倍(bei)(bei)、3.25倍(bei)(bei)，廬江縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、鳳(feng)(feng)(feng)臺縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、舒城(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)較去(qu)年同(tong)(tong)期分(fen)別(bie)(bie)減少(shao)70%、33%、20%；當涂縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、和縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、涇縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、潁(ying)上縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、寧(ning)國市、宣州(zhou)區、郎(lang)溪縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、壽(shou)(shou)縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)每(mei)畝蟲(chong)(chong)量(liang)(liang)分(fen)別(bie)(bie)為(wei)8.2萬(wan)(wan)頭(tou)(tou)(tou)、3.98萬(wan)(wan)頭(tou)(tou)(tou)、2.2萬(wan)(wan)頭(tou)(tou)(tou)、2.01萬(wan)(wan)頭(tou)(tou)(tou)、1.8萬(wan)(wan)頭(tou)(tou)(tou)、1.8萬(wan)(wan)頭(tou)(tou)(tou)、1.8萬(wan)(wan)頭(tou)(tou)(tou)、1.02萬(wan)(wan)頭(tou)(tou)(tou)，其(qi)中當涂縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、寧(ning)國市分(fen)別(bie)(bie)是去(qu)年同(tong)(tong)期的1.2倍(bei)(bei)、1.6倍(bei)(bei)；潁(ying)上縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、宣州(zhou)區、郎(lang)溪縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、壽(shou)(shou)縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)分(fen)別(bie)(bie)比去(qu)年同(tong)(tong)期減少(shao)7.95%、75.3%、64.3%、46.3%。長豐縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、績溪縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、定遠(yuan)縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、全椒縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、固鎮(zhen)縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、宿松縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、阜南縣(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)等地發(fa)生數(shu)量(liang)(liang)低(di)，每(mei)畝蟲(chong)(chong)量(liang)(liang)分(fen)別(bie)(bie)為(wei)2183頭(tou)(tou)(tou)、2045頭(tou)(tou)(tou)、3335頭(tou)(tou)(tou)、1600頭(tou)(tou)(tou)、1500頭(tou)(tou)(tou)、386頭(tou)(tou)(tou)、124頭(tou)(tou)(tou)。
2、灰飛(fei)虱帶毒率部分地區(qu)略偏高。
據我(wo)站5月中(zhong)旬(xun)采樣測定，灰飛虱帶(dai)毒率廬江縣、潁上縣、當涂縣分別(bie)為14.7%、13.3%、13.3%，高于12%的(de)大(da)流行指(zhi)標；樅陽(yang)(yang)縣、鳳陽(yang)(yang)縣、來安(an)縣、宣(xuan)州區分別(bie)為11.4%、7.9%、7.5%、7.5%，帶(dai)毒率較低。
來源：安徽省農委(wei)植保總站
