一、發生趨勢
根據全國一(yi)代(dai)粘蟲(chong)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)情況及當前(qian)我(wo)(wo)省(sheng)燈下(xia)誘(you)蛾(e)實況，結(jie)合歷年(nian)二代(dai)粘蟲(chong)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)規律(lv)和省(sheng)氣(qi)象臺發(fa)布的短(duan)期氣(qi)候(hou)預測綜合分(fen)析，預計(ji)今年(nian)二代(dai)粘蟲(chong)在(zai)我(wo)(wo)省(sheng)總體偏輕發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，中部汾河灌區、瀟河流域(yu)以及文峪河流域(yu)的麥(mai)套玉米田偏重(zhong)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，全省(sheng)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)200~300萬(wan)畝左右，防治適期在(zai)6月下(xia)旬至7月上旬。
二、預(yu)報(bao)依據
1、蟲源基數
（1）外(wai)地蟲源。據全(quan)國農技中(zhong)心測報處(chu)統計，今年(nian)江淮麥區一代(dai)粘蟲見蟲面積小，殘蟲量偏(pian)(pian)低。 有蟲面積1035萬畝，為2002年(nian)以來最低值；各類(lei)型(xing)田(tian)每平(ping)方米殘蟲量，浙江為4.1頭，湖北、安徽和(he)上海1.3~1.8頭，江蘇、河南和(he)山東均(jun)不到1頭，普遍比歷年(nian)平(ping)均(jun)值偏(pian)(pian)低。
（2）本地蟲(chong)情。一代(dai)成蟲(chong)6月上旬開始(shi)在我省進入(ru)發蛾(e)(e)(e)盛期(qi)(qi)，較去(qu)年(nian)(nian)推遲6天左右。到6月10日(ri)(ri)(ri)，全省累(lei)計(ji)誘蛾(e)(e)(e)1072頭(tou)(tou)，比(bi)(bi)(bi)歷年(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)減(jian)少30.4％，比(bi)(bi)(bi)去(qu)年(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)減(jian)少43.9％。其中，芮城峰日(ri)(ri)(ri)蛾(e)(e)(e)量(liang)最高(gao)55頭(tou)(tou)，累(lei)計(ji)誘蛾(e)(e)(e)283頭(tou)(tou)，比(bi)(bi)(bi)去(qu)年(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)低(di)60.2％；介(jie)休峰日(ri)(ri)(ri)蛾(e)(e)(e)量(liang)最高(gao)16頭(tou)(tou)，累(lei)計(ji)誘蛾(e)(e)(e)37頭(tou)(tou)，比(bi)(bi)(bi)去(qu)年(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)低(di)86.4％；汾陽(yang)峰日(ri)(ri)(ri)蛾(e)(e)(e)量(liang)最高(gao)38頭(tou)(tou)，累(lei)計(ji)誘蛾(e)(e)(e)146頭(tou)(tou)，比(bi)(bi)(bi)去(qu)年(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)高(gao)16.7％；太(tai)原峰日(ri)(ri)(ri)蛾(e)(e)(e)量(liang)最高(gao)33頭(tou)(tou)，累(lei)計(ji)誘蛾(e)(e)(e)157頭(tou)(tou)，比(bi)(bi)(bi)去(qu)年(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)高(gao)57％；河(he)曲峰日(ri)(ri)(ri)蛾(e)(e)(e)量(liang)最高(gao)29頭(tou)(tou)，累(lei)計(ji)誘蛾(e)(e)(e)186頭(tou)(tou)，比(bi)(bi)(bi)去(qu)年(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)高(gao)17%；白泉(quan)峰日(ri)(ri)(ri)蛾(e)(e)(e)量(liang)最高(gao)40頭(tou)(tou)，累(lei)計(ji)誘蛾(e)(e)(e)124頭(tou)(tou)，比(bi)(bi)(bi)去(qu)年(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)低(di)49.4%；晉城累(lei)計(ji)誘蛾(e)(e)(e)72頭(tou)(tou)，比(bi)(bi)(bi)去(qu)年(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)高(gao)7.4%；大同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)累(lei)計(ji)誘蛾(e)(e)(e)7頭(tou)(tou)，比(bi)(bi)(bi)去(qu)年(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)低(di)95.8％；目(mu)前卵巢(chao)發育(yu)級(ji)別以3~4級(ji)為(wei)主(zhu)。麥田卵量(liang)調(diao)查，平均每平米0.2~0.4塊(kuai)，單塊(kuai)平均卵粒數14.5粒。
2、氣(qi)象條(tiao)件
據省氣(qi)象(xiang)臺預報(bao) ，6月(yue)份全省降(jiang)水量為(wei)45～79.3毫(hao)米，北部部分(fen)地區(qu)(qu)較常(chang)年(nian)偏(pian)多(duo)1～2成， 7月(yue)份全省降(jiang)水量為(wei)75.0～140.0毫(hao)米，中(zhong)部部分(fen)地區(qu)(qu)偏(pian)多(duo)1～2成，月(yue)平(ping)均氣(qi)溫，全省大部分(fen)地區(qu)(qu)較常(chang)年(nian)略偏(pian)高。降(jiang)雨(yu)量偏(pian)多(duo)有利于粘蟲的(de)發生為(wei)害。
3、生態(tai)因素
由于前期氣溫偏低，我省小麥、玉米生育期普遍推遲，加之， “玉米豐產增糧計劃”的實施，玉米種植面積進一步擴大，有利于粘蟲的發生為害。
來源(yuan)：山西省農(nong)作物病蟲測報站
