根據2008年(nian)晚(wan)秋作(zuo)物布局、前期病(bing)蟲基數(shu)、常年(nian)病(bing)蟲發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)情況，結(jie)合氣(qi)象分(fen)析，預計(ji)我省(sheng)晚(wan)秋作(zuo)物病(bing)蟲總(zong)體呈中等(deng)偏(pian)(pian)重(zhong)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，其中再生(sheng)(sheng)稻(dao)病(bing)蟲預計(ji)偏(pian)(pian)重(zhong)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積300萬畝(mu)次，以水稻(dao)三代螟(ming)蟲、稻(dao)縱(zong)卷葉螟(ming)、稻(dao)飛虱為主。馬鈴(ling)薯病(bing)蟲預計(ji)中等(deng)偏(pian)(pian)重(zhong)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積150萬畝(mu)次，以馬鈴(ling)薯晚(wan)疫病(bing)為主。
1. 再生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)病蟲(chong)。預(yu)(yu)計再生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)三代(dai)(dai)螟(ming)蟲(chong)中(zhong)等(deng)偏(pian)重發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面積200萬畝。預(yu)(yu)計稻(dao)(dao)(dao)縱(zong)(zong)卷(juan)葉(xie)(xie)(xie)(xie)螟(ming)中(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，局部偏(pian)重發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面積70萬畝。預(yu)(yu)計稻(dao)(dao)(dao)飛虱中(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面積30萬畝。依據：（1）二(er)代(dai)(dai)螟(ming)蟲(chong)殘蟲(chong)量較高(gao)(gao)。川南、川東再生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)區監測結果表明(ming)，二(er)代(dai)(dai)螟(ming)蟲(chong)畝殘蟲(chong)量平均為427-1217頭(tou)，最(zui)高(gao)(gao)為45760頭(tou)/畝，多(duo)數(shu)(shu)縣高(gao)(gao)于(yu)常年(nian)。（2）受(shou)7月(yue)中(zhong)、下旬以來的(de)多(duo)次大范圍(wei)強降(jiang)雨的(de)影(ying)(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)，稻(dao)(dao)(dao)株生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)長良好，留薦能(neng)及時長出，將為螟(ming)蟲(chong)提供充足的(de)食源。（3）貴州、云南等(deng)周邊省份(fen)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)縱(zong)(zong)卷(juan)葉(xie)(xie)(xie)(xie)螟(ming)大發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，截止8月(yue)上(shang)旬，稻(dao)(dao)(dao)縱(zong)(zong)卷(juan)葉(xie)(xie)(xie)(xie)螟(ming)燈下、田(tian)間(jian)遷入(ru)(ru)量較高(gao)(gao)，田(tian)間(jian)卷(juan)葉(xie)(xie)(xie)(xie)率為5.68%，基數(shu)(shu)高(gao)(gao)于(yu)常年(nian)。受(shou)近期大范圍(wei)降(jiang)雨影(ying)(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)，中(zhong)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)上(shang)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)飛虱發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)量大，對再生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)有一定影(ying)(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)。（4）氣象預(yu)(yu)報8月(yue)中(zhong)旬我(wo)省大部地方(fang)有3次強降(jiang)雨天氣過程，有利于(yu)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)縱(zong)(zong)卷(juan)葉(xie)(xie)(xie)(xie)螟(ming)、稻(dao)(dao)(dao)飛虱的(de)遷入(ru)(ru)。
2. 秋(qiu)馬鈴(ling)(ling)薯(shu)(shu)。預計秋(qiu)馬鈴(ling)(ling)薯(shu)(shu)晚(wan)(wan)疫(yi)(yi)(yi)病(bing)(bing)(bing)中等偏重發生。依據：（1）前茬馬鈴(ling)(ling)薯(shu)(shu)晚(wan)(wan)疫(yi)(yi)(yi)病(bing)(bing)(bing)大(da)(da)部(bu)份地區(qu)(qu)偏輕發生，局(ju)部(bu)地區(qu)(qu)偏重發生。春(chun)馬鈴(ling)(ling)薯(shu)(shu)收獲前，馬鈴(ling)(ling)薯(shu)(shu)晚(wan)(wan)疫(yi)(yi)(yi)病(bing)(bing)(bing)平均(jun)(jun)病(bing)(bing)(bing)田率15.6%，平均(jun)(jun)病(bing)(bing)(bing)葉率11.2%，病(bing)(bing)(bing)情指(zhi)數(shu)(shu)7.68。局(ju)部(bu)地區(qu)(qu)馬鈴(ling)(ling)薯(shu)(shu)晚(wan)(wan)疫(yi)(yi)(yi)病(bing)(bing)(bing)發生較重，病(bing)(bing)(bing)田率、病(bing)(bing)(bing)株率均(jun)(jun)達100%，病(bing)(bing)(bing)情指(zhi)數(shu)(shu)達48.9。（2）品(pin)種(zhong)抗(kang)性不強。晚(wan)(wan)秋(qiu)馬鈴(ling)(ling)薯(shu)(shu)需(xu)種(zhong)量大(da)(da)，而脫毒品(pin)種(zhong)“大(da)(da)西洋(yang)”和抗(kang)病(bing)(bing)(bing)品(pin)種(zhong)“川芋5號”遠(yuan)遠(yuan)無法滿足種(zhong)植需(xu)求，一些易感(gan)病(bing)(bing)(bing)品(pin)種(zhong)種(zhong)植面(mian)積較大(da)(da)，有(you)利于(yu)(yu)馬鈴(ling)(ling)薯(shu)(shu)晚(wan)(wan)疫(yi)(yi)(yi)病(bing)(bing)(bing)的發生。（3）晚(wan)(wan)秋(qiu)如雨水充(chong)沛，將有(you)利于(yu)(yu)馬鈴(ling)(ling)薯(shu)(shu)晚(wan)(wan)疫(yi)(yi)(yi)病(bing)(bing)(bing)的發生。
