1 晚稻前期發(fa)生(sheng)概況(kuang)
受(shou)氣候、田(tian)間生(sheng)(sheng)境等各方面因素影響，晚稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)前期(qi)主(zhu)要病蟲總體發生(sheng)(sheng)程度同(tong)比略輕，發生(sheng)(sheng)面積約1050萬畝(mu)。與上年同(tong)期(qi)相比：三化(hua)螟(ming)、稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)縱卷葉螟(ming)、稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)瘟病、水(shui)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)細(xi)菌性(xing)條斑病總體發生(sheng)(sheng)偏輕；稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)飛虱、紋枯病發生(sheng)(sheng)接近上年同(tong)期(qi)；局(ju)部稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)區的(de)(de)二化(hua)螟(ming)、臺灣稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)螟(ming)、粘蟲、眉紋夜蛾、稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)癭(ying)蚊(wen)、稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)象(xiang)甲、稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)葉水(shui)蠅、細(xi)菌性(xing)褐(he)條病、赤枯病、水(shui)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)普通矮縮病等有(you)不同(tong)程度的(de)(de)發生(sheng)(sheng)。
2 晚稻(dao)中后期主要(yao)病蟲鼠發生趨勢
總體發生(sheng)程(cheng)度4（5）級，比上年略(lve)輕。與上年相比，三化螟、稻(dao)縱卷葉螟、稻(dao)飛虱發生(sheng)持平，稻(dao)瘟病(bing)發生(sheng)偏重，紋枯(ku)病(bing)發生(sheng)略(lve)重。
2.1 三(san)化螟(ming) 第(di)四(si)代三(san)化螟(ming)發生程度(du)將(jiang)達2（4）級，與上年相比，大(da)部(bu)稻(dao)區(qu)(qu)持平到略輕。重發區(qu)(qu)域(yu)在桂(gui)中(zhong)的大(da)部(bu)及桂(gui)東北、桂(gui)東南(nan)、桂(gui)西南(nan)及右江河谷的部(bu)分稻(dao)區(qu)(qu)。全區(qu)(qu)發生面積(ji)300萬畝。防治(zhi)時段(duan)：9月中(zhong)旬(xun)至10月上旬(xun)。
2.2 二化螟(ming) 預計二化螟(ming)在桂林(lin)市北部(bu)及右江河(he)谷局部(bu)稻區發生(sheng)程度為2（4）級，發生(sheng)面積65萬(wan)畝。防治時段(duan)：9月(yue)中(zhong)旬(xun)至下旬(xun)初。
2.3 稻飛虱 發生程(cheng)度(du)將(jiang)達4（5）級，發生面積(ji)950萬(wan)畝。全區(qu)普遍發生，重(zhong)發區(qu)在桂(gui)東北(bei)、桂(gui)東南的大部(bu)，桂(gui)中及桂(gui)西南的局部(bu)。
2.4 稻縱卷葉(xie)螟 發生程度將達3（4）級，發生面積650萬畝(mu)。主要發生區域(yu)在桂(gui)(gui)東(dong)北、桂(gui)(gui)中、桂(gui)(gui)東(dong)南的(de)大部、桂(gui)(gui)西(xi)北、桂(gui)(gui)西(xi)南及沿海的(de)部分稻區。第六(liu)代(dai)8月(yue)下旬至(zhi)9月(yue)中旬；第七代(dai)9月(yue)下旬至(zhi)10月(yue)上(shang)旬。生長嫩綠的(de)遲(chi)插田將受害嚴重。
2.5 稻(dao)紋枯病(bing) 發(fa)生程度將(jiang)達4（5）級，發(fa)生面積850萬(wan)畝。全區(qu)大部普遍發(fa)生。重發(fa)生區(qu)在桂東北、桂東南及沿(yan)海稻(dao)區(qu)。流(liu)行盛期(qi)：9月中旬(xun)至10月中旬(xun)。
2.6 稻瘟病(bing) 發生程度(du)將(jiang)達2（3）級，桂東北、桂東南、桂西北等歷(li)史性發生區將(jiang)偏重(zhong)發生，部分高感品種有大流行的可能(neng)。發生面積300萬畝(mu)。流行時段：葉瘟，持續至(zhi)9月下旬初；穗頸瘟，9月中旬至(zhi)10月上旬。
2.7 水稻(dao)細菌性條斑病 發(fa)生(sheng)程(cheng)度將達2（3）級，發(fa)生(sheng)面積150萬畝。主(zhu)要發(fa)生(sheng)區域(yu)是(shi)桂(gui)東(dong)北大部(bu)及(ji)桂(gui)中、桂(gui)西北、桂(gui)東(dong)南及(ji)沿海的部(bu)分稻(dao)區。
2.8農區鼠害 發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)程度將(jiang)達3級，發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面積650萬(wan)畝。全區普遍發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)。
此外，臺灣稻(dao)(dao)(dao)螟、粘蟲、眉紋夜(ye)蛾、稻(dao)(dao)(dao)苞蟲、福壽螺、水稻(dao)(dao)(dao)細菌性褐(he)條病(bing)、稻(dao)(dao)(dao)曲病(bing)、水稻(dao)(dao)(dao)普通矮(ai)縮病(bing)、稻(dao)(dao)(dao)白(bai)葉枯病(bing)等病(bing)蟲在(zai)局(ju)部稻(dao)(dao)(dao)區將有(you)不(bu)同(tong)程度的發生(sheng)。其中粘蟲、眉紋夜(ye)蛾、水稻(dao)(dao)(dao)細菌性褐(he)條病(bing)、赤枯病(bing)發生(sheng)將比上年偏重。
3 預測主要依據
3.1 病(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)源(yuan)基數(shu) 三化螟(ming) 統(tong)計(ji)(ji)53個(ge)縣(xian)（市(shi)(shi)(shi)、區(qu)(qu)(qu)）晚(wan)(wan)稻(dao)(dao)前(qian)(qian)期三化螟(ming)發(fa)生(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)89.3萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)，比(bi)上年減少18.8萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)。畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)殘(can)蟲(chong)(chong)量一(yi)(yi)(yi)般(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)50~102頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，高(gao)(gao)的(de)(de)為(wei)(wei)(wei)288~880頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，少數(shu)田(tian)(tian)塊高(gao)(gao)的(de)(de)達(da)(da)(da)(da)1200~3000頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，同(tong)比(bi)少40%~80%。稻(dao)(dao)飛虱 統(tong)計(ji)(ji)53個(ge)縣(xian)（市(shi)(shi)(shi)、區(qu)(qu)(qu)）晚(wan)(wan)稻(dao)(dao)前(qian)(qian)期稻(dao)(dao)飛虱發(fa)生(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)123.6萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)，比(bi)上年同(tong)期增(zeng)2.8萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)；統(tong)計(ji)(ji)48個(ge)縣(xian)（市(shi)(shi)(shi)、區(qu)(qu)(qu)）各(ge)類型(xing)(xing)田(tian)(tian)平(ping)均殘(can)蟲(chong)(chong)量為(wei)(wei)(wei)217頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)/百(bai)叢(cong)，同(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)加15.5％。8月(yue)(yue)(yue)下(xia)旬(xun)(xun)調查(cha)，晚(wan)(wan)稻(dao)(dao)田(tian)(tian)百(bai)叢(cong)蟲(chong)(chong)量一(yi)(yi)(yi)般(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)為(wei)(wei)(wei)75~502頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，高(gao)(gao)的(de)(de)680~995頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，桂(gui)(gui)(gui)(gui)東(dong)北(bei)、桂(gui)(gui)(gui)(gui)西(xi)北(bei)、桂(gui)(gui)(gui)(gui)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)、桂(gui)(gui)(gui)(gui)西(xi)南(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)局部(bu)(bu)田(tian)(tian)塊達(da)(da)(da)(da)1094~2320頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)。稻(dao)(dao)縱卷葉螟(ming) 統(tong)計(ji)(ji)53個(ge)縣(xian)（市(shi)(shi)(shi)、區(qu)(qu)(qu)）晚(wan)(wan)稻(dao)(dao)前(qian)(qian)期稻(dao)(dao)縱卷葉螟(ming)發(fa)生(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)93.8萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)，同(tong)比(bi)少50.3萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)；統(tong)計(ji)(ji)37個(ge)縣(xian)（市(shi)(shi)(shi)、區(qu)(qu)(qu)）各(ge)類型(xing)(xing)田(tian)(tian)平(ping)均殘(can)蟲(chong)(chong)量為(wei)(wei)(wei)13.2頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)/百(bai)叢(cong)，同(tong)比(bi)減38.6%。8月(yue)(yue)(yue)下(xia)旬(xun)(xun)各(ge)地調查(cha)，桂(gui)(gui)(gui)(gui)東(dong)北(bei)、桂(gui)(gui)(gui)(gui)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)部(bu)(bu)分及桂(gui)(gui)(gui)(gui)東(dong)南(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)局部(bu)(bu)稻(dao)(dao)區(qu)(qu)(qu)田(tian)(tian)間出現一(yi)(yi)(yi)個(ge)成蟲(chong)(chong)突增(zeng)峰，畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)蛾量一(yi)(yi)(yi)般(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)318~1510頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，高(gao)(gao)3660~7078頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，桂(gui)(gui)(gui)(gui)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)局部(bu)(bu)田(tian)(tian)塊高(gao)(gao)達(da)(da)(da)(da)37352頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)；百(bai)叢(cong)幼蟲(chong)(chong)量一(yi)(yi)(yi)般(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)3~25頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，高(gao)(gao)的(de)(de)32~57頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，桂(gui)(gui)(gui)(gui)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)局部(bu)(bu)田(tian)(tian)塊高(gao)(gao)達(da)(da)(da)(da)180頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)；桂(gui)(gui)(gui)(gui)東(dong)北(bei)及桂(gui)(gui)(gui)(gui)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)局部(bu)(bu)稻(dao)(dao)區(qu)(qu)(qu)卵量較高(gao)(gao)，百(bai)叢(cong)一(yi)(yi)(yi)般(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)60~135粒，少數(shu)田(tian)(tian)塊高(gao)(gao)達(da)(da)(da)(da)500粒。稻(dao)(dao)紋(wen)枯(ku)病(bing)(bing) 統(tong)計(ji)(ji)52個(ge)縣(xian)（市(shi)(shi)(shi)、區(qu)(qu)(qu)）前(qian)(qian)期稻(dao)(dao)紋(wen)枯(ku)病(bing)(bing)發(fa)生(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)71.5萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)，同(tong)比(bi)多4萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)。8月(yue)(yue)(yue)下(xia)旬(xun)(xun)調查(cha)，桂(gui)(gui)(gui)(gui)東(dong)北(bei)、桂(gui)(gui)(gui)(gui)南(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)少數(shu)晚(wan)(wan)稻(dao)(dao)早插田(tian)(tian)已(yi)有發(fa)生(sheng)，病(bing)(bing)叢(cong)率(lv)(lv)一(yi)(yi)(yi)般(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)1.2%~8.3%，高(gao)(gao)的(de)(de)13.0%~24.0%，桂(gui)(gui)(gui)(gui)南(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)少數(shu)田(tian)(tian)塊則已(yi)達(da)(da)(da)(da)36.0%~64.5%。稻(dao)(dao)瘟(wen)(wen)病(bing)(bing) 統(tong)計(ji)(ji)55個(ge)縣(xian)（市(shi)(shi)(shi)、區(qu)(qu)(qu)）前(qian)(qian)期稻(dao)(dao)瘟(wen)(wen)病(bing)(bing)發(fa)生(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)44.9萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)，比(bi)上年減少13.1萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)。8月(yue)(yue)(yue)下(xia)旬(xun)(xun)各(ge)地調查(cha)，病(bing)(bing)葉率(lv)(lv)一(yi)(yi)(yi)般(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)0.6%～5.5%，高(gao)(gao)的(de)(de)為(wei)(wei)(wei)9.5%～26.0%，桂(gui)(gui)(gui)(gui)東(dong)南(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)及桂(gui)(gui)(gui)(gui)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)少數(shu)種(zhong)植感病(bing)(bing)品種(zhong)較多的(de)(de)田(tian)(tian)塊高(gao)(gao)達(da)(da)(da)(da)56.0%~ 96.6%。水稻(dao)(dao)細菌(jun)性條斑病(bing)(bing) 統(tong)計(ji)(ji)10個(ge)縣(xian)（市(shi)(shi)(shi)、區(qu)(qu)(qu)）前(qian)(qian)期發(fa)生(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)8.6萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)，同(tong)比(bi)少4.4萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)。重發(fa)區(qu)(qu)(qu)在桂(gui)(gui)(gui)(gui)西(xi)北(bei)、桂(gui)(gui)(gui)(gui)西(xi)南(nan)(nan)(nan)(nan)的(de)(de)高(gao)(gao)寒山區(qu)(qu)(qu)及桂(gui)(gui)(gui)(gui)林市(shi)(shi)(shi)的(de)(de)湘桂(gui)(gui)(gui)(gui)走廊的(de)(de)部(bu)(bu)分稻(dao)(dao)區(qu)(qu)(qu)。8月(yue)(yue)(yue)下(xia)旬(xun)(xun)調查(cha)，病(bing)(bing)葉率(lv)(lv)一(yi)(yi)(yi)般(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)0.4%~5.8%，高(gao)(gao)的(de)(de)12.9%~26.4%。鼠害 前(qian)(qian)期部(bu)(bu)分監測點調查(cha)：鼠密度一(yi)(yi)(yi)般(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)0.6~2頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)/畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)，高(gao)(gao)的(de)(de)4~7頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)/畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)；為(wei)(wei)(wei)害率(lv)(lv)一(yi)(yi)(yi)般(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)為(wei)(wei)(wei)0.5％~3.8％，高(gao)(gao)的(de)(de)7.5％~26.0%。
3.2 農事(shi)操(cao)作、田間小(xiao)生境利于(yu)病蟲擴散蔓(man)延(yan) 8月(yue)下旬初統(tong)計，我區(qu)晚稻(dao)插秧工(gong)作已接(jie)近尾(wei)聲，全區(qu)共插晚稻(dao)1465.1萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)，其中(zhong)拋(pao)秧面(mian)(mian)(mian)積約(yue)1200萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)，占種(zhong)(zhong)植面(mian)(mian)(mian)積的82％左右。優質稻(dao)約(yue)1210萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)，占種(zhong)(zhong)植面(mian)(mian)(mian)積82.8%。各(ge)地(di)田間管理(li)工(gong)作有序進行(xing)，禾苗早(zao)生快發，總體長勢良好。目前，全區(qu)一、二類禾苗面(mian)(mian)(mian)積已達975.5萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)，占種(zhong)(zhong)植面(mian)(mian)(mian)積的66.6％。早(zao)、中(zhong)稻(dao)蓄(xu)留(liu)再(zai)生稻(dao)面(mian)(mian)(mian)積8.51萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)，比上年同期少5.7萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)。田間苗情(qing)復雜，利于(yu)病蟲害的滋生、繁殖(zhi)、擴展、蔓(man)延(yan)。
3.3 氣候條件 8月(yue)份大(da)部(bu)地(di)區(qu)平均氣溫基本正(zheng)常，月(yue)日照時(shi)(shi)數略偏少，晴雨(yu)相間(jian)，本月(yue)大(da)部(bu)分時(shi)(shi)段的(de)氣象條件利(li)于大(da)部(bu)地(di)區(qu)晚稻禾苗的(de)移栽、生長；但(dan)月(yue)內降雨(yu)量分布不(bu)均，上旬后期(qi)受(shou)熱(re)(re)帶(dai)風(feng)暴(bao)“北冕(mian)”影(ying)響(xiang)和22~24日受(shou)臺風(feng)“鸚鵡(wu)”環(huan)流影(ying)響(xiang)，桂南(nan)(nan)等地(di)局部(bu)縣市(shi)(shi)出現風(feng)澇災(zai)害。與常年同期(qi)相比，桂西(xi)(xi)大(da)部(bu)、桂南(nan)(nan)局部(bu)、桂東北局部(bu)偏多(duo)1~10成(cheng)，其(qi)余(yu)(yu)地(di)區(qu)偏少1~8成(cheng)。據區(qu)氣象臺預測：預計9月(yue)各地(di)降雨(yu)量北海、欽州、防(fang)城港三市(shi)(shi)大(da)部(bu)及玉林市(shi)(shi)南(nan)(nan)部(bu)150~250毫(hao)米(mi)，崇左(zuo)、南(nan)(nan)寧、百色三市(shi)(shi)大(da)部(bu)、河(he)(he)池市(shi)(shi)西(xi)(xi)部(bu)、玉林市(shi)(shi)北部(bu)100~150毫(hao)米(mi)，其(qi)余(yu)(yu)地(di)區(qu)50~100毫(hao)米(mi)。與常年同期(qi)相比，梧州、貴港、防(fang)城一線(xian)的(de)東南(nan)(nan)部(bu)略多(duo)，其(qi)余(yu)(yu)大(da)部(bu)地(di)區(qu)偏少2成(cheng)左(zuo)右。預計月(yue)內有1-2個熱(re)(re)帶(dai)氣旋影(ying)響(xiang)我(wo)區(qu)；9月(yue)下旬桂林、河(he)(he)池、百色的(de)高寒山(shan)區(qu)可能出現今年首次寒露風(feng)天氣。
來源：廣西壯族自治區(qu)植保總站
