根(gen)據省氣(qi)象(xiang)(xiang)部(bu)門(men)對秋(qiu)冬季(ji)氣(qi)象(xiang)(xiang)條(tiao)件的(de)監(jian)測結(jie)果及(ji)2009年長(chang)期氣(qi)象(xiang)(xiang)預測，結(jie)合全省種植(zhi)結(jie)構(gou)調整、栽培管理等(deng)情況(kuang)綜合分析，預計(ji)2009年全省農作(zuo)物主(zhu)要病(bing)蟲(chong)草鼠(shu)害(hai)總體(ti)為偏重(zhong)(zhong)發生(sheng)(sheng)。春季(ji)，大田苗期害(hai)蟲(chong)與地(di)下害(hai)蟲(chong)將重(zhong)(zhong)于常(chang)(chang)年，其中(zhong)地(di)老虎繼續呈加重(zhong)(zhong)危害(hai)趨勢。農田鼠(shu)害(hai)在山邊(bian)、渠邊(bian)等(deng)地(di)塊仍將出現較為嚴重(zhong)(zhong)的(de)盜(dao)籽扒苗現象(xiang)(xiang)。新建水(shui)(shui)稻(dao)大棚育秧(yang)區(qu)要特(te)別(bie)注意長(chang)殘留(liu)性(xing)除草劑(ji)藥(yao)害(hai)問題。夏季(ji)，一代(dai)草地(di)螟(ming)、玉米螟(ming)已具(ju)備(bei)大發生(sheng)(sheng)的(de)蟲(chong)源條(tiao)件，蝗蟲(chong)局部(bu)高密(mi)度蟲(chong)區(qu)范圍會增加，水(shui)(shui)稻(dao)二化螟(ming)發生(sheng)(sheng)區(qu)域將進(jin)一步向北擴展，部(bu)分縣（市）會達到中(zhong)等(deng)偏重(zhong)(zhong)發生(sheng)(sheng)，水(shui)(shui)稻(dao)稻(dao)瘟病(bing)在主(zhu)產區(qu)有(you)中(zhong)等(deng)偏重(zhong)(zhong)流行(xing)趨勢，馬(ma)鈴薯(shu)晚(wan)疫病(bing)有(you)大流行(xing)趨勢，大豆食心蟲(chong)中(zhong)等(deng)偏重(zhong)(zhong)發生(sheng)(sheng)，大豆蚜、紅蜘(zhi)蛛將為中(zhong)等(deng)程度發生(sheng)(sheng)。農田草荒將重(zhong)(zhong)于常(chang)(chang)年。具(ju)體(ti)分析如(ru)下：
1、突(tu)發性及雜食性害蟲。總體將達到偏重至大發生。
遷飛性害(hai)蟲(chong)(chong)草(cao)(cao)地(di)(di)螟(ming)(ming)(ming)：根據全國測報網(wang)監(jian)測調查，內蒙(meng)古、黑龍江、山西(xi)、河北(bei)、吉林(lin)、遼寧等各省(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)越(yue)(yue)冬面(mian)積(ji)達1.1億畝(mu)，加權平均(jun)活繭密(mi)度為17.2頭/㎡，總蟲(chong)(chong)量(liang)是歷史上最高(gao)(gao)年(nian)份2002年(nian)的(de)12.5倍，越(yue)(yue)冬面(mian)積(ji)之(zhi)大(da)(da)(da)、范(fan)(fan)圍之(zhi)廣，蟲(chong)(chong)繭密(mi)度之(zhi)高(gao)(gao)，為1996年(nian)以來最高(gao)(gao)年(nian)份。我(wo)省(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)草(cao)(cao)地(di)(di)螟(ming)(ming)(ming)越(yue)(yue)冬面(mian)積(ji)為2625萬畝(mu)，活蟲(chong)(chong)繭加權平均(jun)密(mi)度35.3頭/㎡，其中，農(nong)田以外的(de)越(yue)(yue)冬面(mian)積(ji)占(zhan)60%以上，越(yue)(yue)冬量(liang)之(zhi)大(da)(da)(da)、范(fan)(fan)圍之(zhi)廣為歷史首(shou)次(ci)。同時,俄(e)羅斯(si)及蒙(meng)古共(gong)和(he)國東部存在(zai)(zai)大(da)(da)(da)量(liang)蟲(chong)(chong)源(yuan)，使我(wo)省(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)草(cao)(cao)地(di)(di)螟(ming)(ming)(ming)發(fa)生(sheng)的(de)危險進一步加大(da)(da)(da)。因此，一代草(cao)(cao)地(di)(di)螟(ming)(ming)(ming)已(yi)具備(bei)大(da)(da)(da)發(fa)生(sheng)的(de)蟲(chong)(chong)源(yuan)條(tiao)件(jian)，如(ru)草(cao)(cao)地(di)(di)螟(ming)(ming)(ming)成蟲(chong)(chong)期、卵期氣象(xiang)與寄主條(tiao)件(jian)適宜(yi)，預計全省(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)一代草(cao)(cao)地(di)(di)螟(ming)(ming)(ming)有大(da)(da)(da)發(fa)生(sheng)趨勢，且發(fa)生(sheng)期將早于(yu)常(chang)年(nian)，農(nong)作(zuo)物受害(hai)導致絕產(chan)的(de)風險很(hen)大(da)(da)(da)，重點仍(reng)在(zai)(zai)我(wo)省(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)大(da)(da)(da)豆、葵(kui)花、甜菜等主產(chan)區。
蝗(huang)蟲(chong)(chong)：越冬(dong)卵量(liang)平均平方米6.7塊(kuai)，較(jiao)上年(nian)、常(chang)年(nian)分別高(gao)131%、18.8%，較(jiao)高(gao)的肇源縣為18塊(kuai)卵，高(gao)于常(chang)年(nian)1.3倍。氣(qi)象(xiang)部門預測(ce)，夏季氣(qi)溫略高(gao)，7-8月(yue)份降水集中有利(li)于蝗(huang)蟲(chong)(chong)的發生(sheng)危害，加之近年(nian)濕(shi)地面積不斷縮減(jian)，預計蝗(huang)蟲(chong)(chong)在(zai)我省中西(xi)部地區將達到(dao)中等偏重發生(sheng)，農田受害將進一步(bu)加重。
遷飛性害蟲(chong)(chong)粘(zhan)蟲(chong)(chong)：近年來，我省發生較輕(qing)，發生區(qu)域分(fen)散，但局部個別(bie)地塊也(ye)造(zao)成了一定(ding)危害。根據全(quan)國農技推廣中心(xin)預測(ce)，江淮一代蟲(chong)(chong)源區(qu)今(jin)年仍(reng)為偏(pian)輕(qing)發生。因(yin)此，預計粘(zhan)蟲(chong)(chong)全(quan)省總體(ti)仍(reng)為輕(qing)發生。
苗(miao)期(qi)害蟲(chong)與地下(xia)(xia)害蟲(chong)：地老(lao)虎、蠐螬、螻(lou)蛄(gu)、金針(zhen)(zhen)蟲(chong)、大(da)(da)豆根潛(qian)蠅(ying)等(deng)越冬基數全省平均平方米分(fen)別為(wei)(wei)0.57、0.74、0.32、0.63、3.02頭，分(fen)別高于常年39.0% 、131.3%、6.0%、231.6%、59.6%。氣象(xiang)預報后春(chun)至初夏易發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)干(gan)旱，對蟲(chong)害發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)較為(wei)(wei)有利。預計地下(xia)(xia)害蟲(chong)及苗(miao)期(qi)害蟲(chong)將中(zhong)等(deng)偏(pian)重發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)。地老(lao)虎、蒙古灰象(xiang)甲(jia)、網目沙(sha)潛(qian)等(deng)主(zhu)要發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)在齊齊哈爾、大(da)(da)慶(qing)等(deng)西部地區。香草小卷蛾、二條葉甲(jia)、大(da)(da)豆薊馬、金針(zhen)(zhen)蟲(chong)、大(da)(da)豆根潛(qian)蠅(ying)等(deng)主(zhu)要發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)在中(zhong)北(bei)部地區。斑須蝽蟓、豆螢葉甲(jia)等(deng)主(zhu)要發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)在中(zhong)南(nan)部與東部地區。
2、 水稻(dao)病蟲害。預(yu)計(ji)中等偏(pian)重(zhong)發(fa)生。
盡管2008年水(shui)(shui)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)瘟(wen)病(bing)(bing)(bing)全省主要稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)相對(dui)較(jiao)(jiao)輕，但田間零星見(jian)到病(bing)(bing)(bing)斑的(de)(de)(de)(de)田塊比較(jiao)(jiao)普(pu)遍，部分地(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)甚至出現發(fa)病(bing)(bing)(bing)嚴重(zhong)地(di)塊，因此菌源基數對(dui)發(fa)病(bing)(bing)(bing)有利。同(tong)時市場(chang)暢(chang)銷的(de)(de)(de)(de)優質米品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)有大(da)(da)(da)(da)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)單一(yi)化(hua)(hua)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)植的(de)(de)(de)(de)趨勢(shi)(shi)，致使相應的(de)(de)(de)(de)致病(bing)(bing)(bing)性生(sheng)(sheng)理小種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)逐步上升為優勢(shi)(shi)小種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)，稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)瘟(wen)病(bing)(bing)(bing)大(da)(da)(da)(da)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)流行的(de)(de)(de)(de)危險進(jin)一(yi)步加(jia)大(da)(da)(da)(da)。據(ju)氣象部門預(yu)測，7-8月份降水(shui)(shui)集(ji)中(zhong)、略(lve)多，有階(jie)段性低溫(wen)，加(jia)大(da)(da)(da)(da)了稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)瘟(wen)病(bing)(bing)(bing)尤其是(shi)后(hou)期穗頸(jing)瘟(wen)流行可能(neng)。預(yu)計(ji)(ji)(ji)水(shui)(shui)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)瘟(wen)病(bing)(bing)(bing)尤其是(shi)穗頸(jing)瘟(wen)在(zai)(zai)哈爾濱、綏(sui)化(hua)(hua)及三江平原(yuan)等(deng)水(shui)(shui)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)主產(chan)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)會有中(zhong)等(deng)偏重(zhong)流行的(de)(de)(de)(de)趨勢(shi)(shi)，單一(yi)品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)植面(mian)積(ji)(ji)較(jiao)(jiao)大(da)(da)(da)(da)的(de)(de)(de)(de)地(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)，尤其要提(ti)高警惕。水(shui)(shui)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)二化(hua)(hua)螟由(you)于(yu)(yu)近年稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)農(nong)防(fang)治意識增(zeng)強(qiang)，防(fang)治面(mian)積(ji)(ji)增(zeng)加(jia)，蟲(chong)口密度略(lve)有下降，2008年全省平均(jun)百桿活蟲(chong)6.4頭(tou)，低于(yu)(yu)常(chang)(chang)年29.7%，存活率為86.0%。但發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)域(yu)已由(you)哈爾濱、綏(sui)化(hua)(hua)、佳木斯(si)擴大(da)(da)(da)(da)至大(da)(da)(da)(da)慶、鶴崗等(deng)地(di)。預(yu)計(ji)(ji)(ji)2009年水(shui)(shui)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)二化(hua)(hua)螟在(zai)(zai)主要發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)將(jiang)達到中(zhong)等(deng)偏重(zhong)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)。水(shui)(shui)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)潛葉蠅、負泥蟲(chong)全省平均(jun)平方米越冬量分別為4.3頭(tou)、3.3頭(tou)，接近常(chang)(chang)年。預(yu)計(ji)(ji)(ji)在(zai)(zai)山區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)、半(ban)山區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)田將(jiang)達中(zhong)等(deng)至中(zhong)等(deng)偏重(zhong)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)。由(you)于(yu)(yu)全省水(shui)(shui)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)大(da)(da)(da)(da)棚育苗面(mian)積(ji)(ji)大(da)(da)(da)(da)幅(fu)度增(zeng)加(jia)，有利于(yu)(yu)減輕水(shui)(shui)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)青(qing)（立）枯病(bing)(bing)(bing)的(de)(de)(de)(de)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，預(yu)計(ji)(ji)(ji)全省為中(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)。水(shui)(shui)稻(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)(dao)鞘(qiao)腐病(bing)(bing)(bing)、紋枯病(bing)(bing)(bing)等(deng)病(bing)(bing)(bing)害(hai)在(zai)(zai)局(ju)部地(di)區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)繼續呈上升趨勢(shi)(shi)。建設(she)在(zai)(zai)旱田區(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)新建大(da)(da)(da)(da)棚應注(zhu)意長殘(can)留藥(yao)害(hai)問題。
3、大豆病蟲害。預計將中等偏重發生。
2008年(nian)全省大(da)(da)(da)豆(dou)(dou)(dou)食(shi)心蟲蟲食(shi)率(lv)平均為4.8%，較(jiao)上(shang)年(nian)、常(chang)(chang)(chang)年(nian)分(fen)別(bie)下降1.5、1.45個百分(fen)點，達到防(fang)治指標(biao)（蟲食(shi)率(lv)5%）的縣(xian)（市）占50%，低(di)于上(shang)年(nian)11.4個百分(fen)點，且蟲食(shi)率(lv)主(zhu)要集中(zhong)(zhong)在5%-10%間，差異(yi)不顯著，加之(zhi)氣(qi)象預測夏(xia)季降水正常(chang)(chang)(chang)略多(duo)有利于種(zhong)群擴繁(fan)，若 8月上(shang)中(zhong)(zhong)旬(xun)沒有大(da)(da)(da)、暴雨天氣(qi)，預計(ji)大(da)(da)(da)豆(dou)(dou)(dou)食(shi)心蟲將(jiang)呈上(shang)升態勢，程度達中(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)(deng)(deng)偏重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)發生(sheng)，發生(sheng)區(qu)(qu)域以(yi)(yi)齊齊哈爾(er)、黑河、綏化北部等(deng)(deng)(deng)地為主(zhu)。大(da)(da)(da)豆(dou)(dou)(dou)蚜以(yi)(yi)東南部淺山區(qu)(qu)越冬寄主(zhu)較(jiao)多(duo)的縣(xian)（市）為主(zhu)發區(qu)(qu)，預計(ji)全省中(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)(deng)(deng)發生(sheng)。大(da)(da)(da)豆(dou)(dou)(dou)紅蜘(zhi)蛛(zhu)將(jiang)達中(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)(deng)(deng)至中(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)(deng)(deng)偏重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)發生(sheng)，以(yi)(yi)西、北部地區(qu)(qu)為主(zhu)。大(da)(da)(da)豆(dou)(dou)(dou)根(gen)(gen)絨粉(fen)蚧在北安、克山、克東、拜泉、海倫等(deng)(deng)(deng)縣(xian)（市）繼續呈加重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)趨勢。大(da)(da)(da)豆(dou)(dou)(dou)菌核病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)為中(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)(deng)(deng)發生(sheng)，以(yi)(yi)局部澇洼地及重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)迎茬地塊為主(zhu)。受大(da)(da)(da)豆(dou)(dou)(dou)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)迎茬影(ying)響，大(da)(da)(da)豆(dou)(dou)(dou)孢囊線蟲、根(gen)(gen)腐等(deng)(deng)(deng)根(gen)(gen)部病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)害將(jiang)中(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)(deng)(deng)偏重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)發生(sheng)，發生(sheng)分(fen)布不均。大(da)(da)(da)豆(dou)(dou)(dou)褐(he)紋病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)、大(da)(da)(da)豆(dou)(dou)(dou)霜霉病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)、大(da)(da)(da)豆(dou)(dou)(dou)灰斑病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)等(deng)(deng)(deng)大(da)(da)(da)豆(dou)(dou)(dou)生(sheng)長期葉部病(bing)(bing)(bing)(bing)害將(jiang)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)于常(chang)(chang)(chang)年(nian)。
4、玉(yu)米病蟲害。預(yu)計將(jiang)重于上(shang)年，總體(ti)為(wei)偏(pian)重發生。
根據秋(qiu)(qiu)季扒桿調查，玉(yu)(yu)米(mi)(mi)螟百桿活蟲全省(sheng)平均(jun)為(wei)120.6頭,比去年(nian)上升41.1%，主(zhu)產區龍江、肇(zhao)東、雙城、肇(zhao)州(zhou)、青(qing)岡、望(wang)奎、蘭西、北林、海倫等(deng)(deng)平均(jun)高(gao)達(da)240.7頭。超過百頭的縣（市）占48.2%，較(jiao)高(gao)的北林、拜泉、青(qing)岡、肇(zhao)源百桿活蟲數(shu)分(fen)別(bie)達(da)到585.0、407.4、329.0、302.0頭，較(jiao)低的林口(kou)、明(ming)水分(fen)別(bie)為(wei)8.2、23.0頭，發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)分(fen)布(bu)呈(cheng)明(ming)顯不(bu)均(jun)衡狀態(tai)。且秋(qiu)(qiu)季氣溫高(gao)，雨(yu)水少(shao)有(you)利(li)于(yu)蟲體發(fa)(fa)(fa)育，使得大(da)(da)(da)部分(fen)越冬蟲體質量較(jiao)好，全省(sheng)平均(jun)冬前(qian)存(cun)活率87.4%，與(yu)常年(nian)接近(jin)。同時(shi)氣象部門預(yu)測今年(nian)春、夏季氣候條件對玉(yu)(yu)米(mi)(mi)螟發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)較(jiao)為(wei)有(you)利(li)。因此(ci)，預(yu)計(ji)玉(yu)(yu)米(mi)(mi)螟將(jiang)達(da)到偏重至(zhi)大(da)(da)(da)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)，重點發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)區在(zai)中(zhong)西部玉(yu)(yu)米(mi)(mi)主(zhu)產區。玉(yu)(yu)米(mi)(mi)大(da)(da)(da)（小(xiao)）斑病(bing)(bing)2008年(nian)全省(sheng)田間平均(jun)發(fa)(fa)(fa)病(bing)(bing)株(zhu)率5%，低于(yu)去年(nian)0.7個百分(fen)點，但(dan)仍(reng)(reng)高(gao)于(yu)常年(nian)，夏季降雨(yu)集中(zhong)，加之近(jin)年(nian)玉(yu)(yu)米(mi)(mi)多(duo)為(wei)密植(zhi)，中(zhong)后期易脫肥，加重玉(yu)(yu)米(mi)(mi)大(da)(da)(da)（小(xiao)）斑病(bing)(bing)的發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)，預(yu)計(ji)將(jiang)達(da)中(zhong)等(deng)(deng)以上程度(du)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)。玉(yu)(yu)米(mi)(mi)絲黑(hei)穗(sui)病(bing)(bing)上年(nian)全省(sheng)平均(jun)病(bing)(bing)株(zhu)率為(wei)3.6%，略高(gao)于(yu)常年(nian)，春季氣溫前(qian)低后高(gao)，預(yu)計(ji)播(bo)種早、干旱(han)不(bu)易出苗的地區，玉(yu)(yu)米(mi)(mi)絲黑(hei)穗(sui)病(bing)(bing)將(jiang)中(zhong)等(deng)(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)。玉(yu)(yu)米(mi)(mi)頂(ding)腐(fu)病(bing)(bing)在(zai)綏化、哈(ha)爾濱、大(da)(da)(da)慶、齊齊哈(ha)爾等(deng)(deng)地的玉(yu)(yu)米(mi)(mi)連作區仍(reng)(reng)將(jiang)有(you)一(yi)定程度(du)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)。另外，玉(yu)(yu)米(mi)(mi)蚜近(jin)年(nian)來有(you)上升趨勢，夏季高(gao)溫、雨(yu)水較(jiao)少(shao)的地區，將(jiang)造成一(yi)定程度(du)危害。
5、蔬菜及經(jing)濟作物類病蟲害。預計為偏重(zhong)發(fa)生。
7、8月份雨水(shui)集中(zhong)將(jiang)使綏化(hua)、齊齊哈爾等馬鈴薯主產區(qu)(qu)的晚疫病(bing)(bing)達到大發生程度(du)。春季保護地(di)蔬菜(cai)(cai)病(bing)(bing)蟲害發生種(zhong)類前期(qi)以番茄葉霉(mei)病(bing)(bing)、灰霉(mei)病(bing)(bing)、黃瓜角斑(ban)(ban)病(bing)(bing)、菜(cai)(cai)豆(dou)疫病(bing)(bing)低溫性(xing)病(bing)(bing)害為主，后期(qi)以霜(shuang)霉(mei)病(bing)(bing)、晚疫病(bing)(bing)高溫性(xing)病(bing)(bing)害為主，將(jiang)達到偏(pian)重發生程度(du)。溫室集中(zhong)連片的地(di)區(qu)(qu)斑(ban)(ban)潛蠅、白粉虱等也呈加重趨勢。露地(di)蔬菜(cai)(cai)小菜(cai)(cai)蛾、甘藍夜盜、菜(cai)(cai)青蟲危害將(jiang)重于常(chang)年。
6、農(nong)田(tian)(tian)草(cao)(cao)(cao)害(hai)。據(ju)雙城測報站監測，一年(nian)(nian)(nian)生(sheng)農(nong)田(tian)(tian)雜(za)(za)草(cao)(cao)(cao)稗、藜、龍葵、蓼、狗尾草(cao)(cao)(cao)、蒼耳、苘麻(ma)等平(ping)均(jun)平(ping)方米種子量分別為14100、13250、38000、3502、1641、350、2400粒，低于(yu)上年(nian)(nian)(nian)，高于(yu)常(chang)(chang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)2倍以(yi)上，種子成熟度(du)較(jiao)好。冬春雨雪大(da)、后春氣溫(wen)略高，有利于(yu)宿根性多(duo)年(nian)(nian)(nian)生(sheng)雜(za)(za)草(cao)(cao)(cao)早期(qi)萌(meng)發(fa)，加(jia)之可能出現的春旱將導致出草(cao)(cao)(cao)沒有明顯高峰期(qi)，并影響(xiang)化(hua)學除草(cao)(cao)(cao)效果，草(cao)(cao)(cao)荒(huang)將重于(yu)常(chang)(chang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)。旱田(tian)(tian)雜(za)(za)草(cao)(cao)(cao)以(yi)稗、藜、莧等為主要(yao)優勢(shi)群落，苣荬菜、鴨跖(zhi)草(cao)(cao)(cao)、大(da)（小）薊仍為生(sheng)產中(zhong)難(nan)防雜(za)(za)草(cao)(cao)(cao)。水(shui)田(tian)(tian)野慈菇、澤瀉、雨久花等闊葉雜(za)(za)草(cao)(cao)(cao)群落繼(ji)續呈上升(sheng)勢(shi)頭。此外，春季雨水(shui)多(duo)、封閉除草(cao)(cao)(cao)用藥(yao)(yao)(yao)量大(da)的地(di)區，藥(yao)(yao)(yao)害(hai)現象將普遍，預計藥(yao)(yao)(yao)害(hai)程度(du)將重于(yu)常(chang)(chang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)。
7、農田(tian)鼠(shu)(shu)害(hai)。由于(yu)近(jin)年來全省持(chi)續開展(zhan)(zhan)了大規模統一(yi)滅(mie)鼠(shu)(shu)，防治區內鼠(shu)(shu)密(mi)度(du)(du)大幅度(du)(du)下降，平均百鋏（日(ri)）捕(bu)獲率為1.92%。但未防治區內仍(reng)(reng)較高(gao)，達到(dao)14.5%，仍(reng)(reng)高(gao)出防治指標2倍以上，最高(gao)縣(xian)（市）達到(dao)27.6%。且去年冬(dong)季氣溫(wen)高(gao)，降雪(xue)多(duo)，糧(liang)食積(ji)壓利于(yu)鼠(shu)(shu)害(hai)越冬(dong)存活，春(chun)季農田(tian)鼠(shu)(shu)害(hai)形勢(shi)仍(reng)(reng)不容樂觀，特別是(shi)未開展(zhan)(zhan)統一(yi)滅(mie)鼠(shu)(shu)、鼠(shu)(shu)密(mi)度(du)(du)較高(gao)的農田(tian)，扒籽盜苗現象將(jiang)重于(yu)常(chang)年，若不繼續加(jia)大防治力度(du)(du)，農田(tian)鼠(shu)(shu)密(mi)度(du)(du)將(jiang)會迅速回升。
來源：黑龍江省農業植保站
