一、蟲情發生程度預(yu)報
中(zhong)等偏(pian)重發(fa)生(sheng)年(nian)概(gai)率90%，中(zhong)等發(fa)年(nian)概(gai)率10%。
二、預測依據
1、觀察圃趕蛾
市農技中心自(zi)5月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)10日(ri)起(qi)在松(song)江區(qu)九亭、泗涇設(she)立了(le)二個自(zi)然觀察圃趕蛾(e)點系(xi)統調查，于5月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)26日(ri)始(shi)(shi)見，比2008年(nian)(nian)(nian)5月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)27日(ri)始(shi)(shi)見早(zao)1天(tian)，比2007年(nian)(nian)(nian)5月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)21日(ri)始(shi)(shi)見遲5天(tian)，比2006年(nian)(nian)(nian)6月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)4日(ri)始(shi)(shi)見早(zao)9天(tian)，比近(jin)5年(nian)(nian)(nian)平(ping)均（6月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)2日(ri)）早(zao)7天(tian)。至(zhi)6月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)17日(ri)止累計(ji)蛾(e)量(liang)(liang)21頭，2008年(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)累計(ji)蛾(e)量(liang)(liang)16頭，2007年(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)累計(ji)蛾(e)量(liang)(liang)18頭， 2006年(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)累計(ji)蛾(e)量(liang)(liang)11頭，2005年(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)11頭、近(jin)5年(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)平(ping)均13.1頭，今(jin)年(nian)(nian)(nian)的蛾(e)量(liang)(liang)比5年(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)累計(ji)平(ping)均高60.3%。另(ling)據浦(pu)東新區(qu)豆野螟成(cheng)蟲燈下(xia)系(xi)統調查，始(shi)(shi)見期(qi)(qi)6月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)10日(ri)，到6月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)18日(ri)燈下(xia)累計(ji)11頭。奉賢區(qu)測報點燈下(xia)誘蛾(e)系(xi)統調查，成(cheng)蟲始(shi)(shi)見期(qi)(qi)6月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)9日(ri)，至(zhi)6月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)17日(ri)止累計(ji)誘蛾(e)量(liang)(liang)5頭。
2、田間幼蟲
市農(nong)技中心巡回鮮(xian)落(luo)(luo)(luo)(luo)花(hua)(hua)調查，幼蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)始(shi)(shi)見(jian)期(qi)5月(yue)(yue)(yue)30日(ri)，比(bi)2008年(nian)(nian)(nian)始(shi)(shi)見(jian)期(qi)5月(yue)(yue)(yue)29日(ri)遲1天，比(bi)2007年(nian)(nian)(nian)始(shi)(shi)見(jian)期(qi)5月(yue)(yue)(yue)22日(ri)遲8天，比(bi)2006年(nian)(nian)(nian)始(shi)(shi)見(jian)期(qi)6月(yue)(yue)(yue)12日(ri)早13天。自始(shi)(shi)見(jian)至6月(yue)(yue)(yue)17日(ri)止(zhi)(zhi)鮮(xian)落(luo)(luo)(luo)(luo)花(hua)(hua)的(de)累(lei)計平均(jun)(jun)(jun)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)花(hua)(hua)率(lv)(lv)為13.5%，2008年(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)累(lei)計平均(jun)(jun)(jun)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)花(hua)(hua)率(lv)(lv)為10.5%；2007年(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)累(lei)計平均(jun)(jun)(jun)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)花(hua)(hua)率(lv)(lv)為15.3%；2006年(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)累(lei)計平均(jun)(jun)(jun)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)花(hua)(hua)率(lv)(lv)5.6%；近三年(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)累(lei)計平均(jun)(jun)(jun)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)花(hua)(hua)率(lv)(lv)12.1%。今年(nian)(nian)(nian)比(bi)三年(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)累(lei)計平均(jun)(jun)(jun)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)花(hua)(hua)率(lv)(lv)高11.5%。另(ling)據奉賢區(qu)測報點鮮(xian)落(luo)(luo)(luo)(luo)花(hua)(hua)幼蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)密度系統，始(shi)(shi)見(jian)期(qi)6月(yue)(yue)(yue)5日(ri)，百(bai)朵(duo)(duo)落(luo)(luo)(luo)(luo)花(hua)(hua)中有1令(ling)1條；6月(yue)(yue)(yue)10日(ri)百(bai)朵(duo)(duo)落(luo)(luo)(luo)(luo)花(hua)(hua)中有1令(ling)3條，二(er)百(bai)根(gen)豇(jiang)豆(dou)中有2根(gen)蛀(zhu)莢，幼蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)1、2令(ling)各1條；6月(yue)(yue)(yue)16日(ri)百(bai)朵(duo)(duo)落(luo)(luo)(luo)(luo)花(hua)(hua)為害率(lv)(lv)為2%，2令(ling)2條，二(er)百(bai)根(gen)豇(jiang)豆(dou)有4根(gen)蛀(zhu)莢，幼蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)2、3令(ling)各2條。至6月(yue)(yue)(yue)16日(ri)止(zhi)(zhi)，累(lei)計平均(jun)(jun)(jun)百(bai)花(hua)(hua)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)花(hua)(hua)率(lv)(lv)6%，累(lei)計豆(dou)莢蛀(zhu)莢率(lv)(lv)3%。寶山區(qu)測報點豆(dou)野(ye)螟6月(yue)(yue)(yue)16日(ri)幼蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)調查，百(bai)花(hua)(hua)有蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)率(lv)(lv)為０.５％．幼蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)１令(ling)１條。南匯區(qu)測報點6月(yue)(yue)(yue)17日(ri)調查，平均(jun)(jun)(jun)百(bai)朵(duo)(duo)鮮(xian)落(luo)(luo)(luo)(luo)花(hua)(hua)幼蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)0.25頭。
三、發生趨勢分析
今(jin)年入(ru)夏偏早(zao)(zao)，5月、6月溫度(du)比(bi)常年同期(qi)平均偏高(gao)， 6月上旬(xun)(xun)起多(duo)悶熱陣雨(yu)(yu)，利(li)于豆(dou)(dou)野螟(ming)(ming)(ming)成蟲(chong)早(zao)(zao)發(fa)，早(zao)(zao)茬(cha)豇(jiang)(jiang)豆(dou)(dou)的(de)(de)(de)生(sheng)育期(qi)也因溫度(du)偏高(gao)，提(ti)早(zao)(zao)進(jin)入(ru)開花結(jie)莢(jia)期(qi)，為豆(dou)(dou)野螟(ming)(ming)(ming)的(de)(de)(de)早(zao)(zao)期(qi)蟲(chong)源提(ti)供了良好的(de)(de)(de)寄主(zhu)條件，目前天氣即進(jin)入(ru)梅雨(yu)(yu)季節，非常適宜豆(dou)(dou)野螟(ming)(ming)(ming)的(de)(de)(de)發(fa)生(sheng)與繁殖；有利(li)于第一代豆(dou)(dou)野螟(ming)(ming)(ming)的(de)(de)(de)發(fa)生(sheng)與為害，還由于梅雨(yu)(yu)天氣原因，影(ying)響早(zao)(zao)期(qi)的(de)(de)(de)正常防治工作和防治效果，使殘留蟲(chong)口基數(shu)高(gao)，預計(ji)6月下(xia)旬(xun)(xun)起至(zhi)9月中(zhong)旬(xun)(xun)，豇(jiang)(jiang)豆(dou)(dou)的(de)(de)(de)蟲(chong)花率將(jiang)明顯上升，對中(zhong)、晚(wan)茬(cha)豇(jiang)(jiang)豆(dou)(dou)可造成較大(da)的(de)(de)(de)危害。
四、防治意見
1、防治時期
豆野(ye)螟成蟲喜在幼嫩(nen)的花蕾上產卵，因(yin)此，始花至盛(sheng)花期是防治的最佳(jia)適(shi)期。
早茬豇豆防(fang)(fang)治(zhi)(zhi)1次(ci)(ci)(ci)、防(fang)(fang)治(zhi)(zhi)適期(qi)在6月25日前。中茬豇豆防(fang)(fang)治(zhi)(zhi)2次(ci)(ci)(ci)，第一次(ci)(ci)(ci)防(fang)(fang)治(zhi)(zhi)適期(qi)在7月初(chu)（花(hua)蕾始盛期(qi)），第二次(ci)(ci)(ci)防(fang)(fang)治(zhi)(zhi)適期(qi)在7月10日前后。晚茬豇豆根據生育期(qi)在花(hua)蕾始盛期(qi)開始連續(xu)用藥防(fang)(fang)治(zhi)(zhi)3次(ci)(ci)(ci)，防(fang)(fang)治(zhi)(zhi)間隔(ge)期(qi)7～8天。秋豇豆、秋刀豆、扁豆在始花(hua)期(qi)、盛花(hua)期(qi)防(fang)(fang)治(zhi)(zhi)2～3次(ci)(ci)(ci)，用藥間隔(ge)期(qi)7～10天。
2、防治藥劑
可選用除(chu)(chu)盡(jin)2000倍、美滿1500倍，美除(chu)(chu)1000倍，安(an)打3000倍，海正三令2000倍，ＢＴ粉劑100克(ke)/畝(mu)（氣溫(wen)高于30℃以上停用），用藥間隔(ge)期7～10天。
3、注意事項
針(zhen)對初孵幼(you)蟲(chong)蛀花、老熟幼(you)蟲(chong)轉移危害的(de)特(te)點(dian)，噴藥(yao)的(de)最(zui)佳(jia)時間在早上 7∶00～10∶00，豇豆花盛(sheng)開(kai)時，重點(dian)噴藥(yao)部位為花蕾(lei)、嫩莢。
由于豇豆、刀豆、扁豆都(dou)是(shi)連續性采(cai)收的蔬菜，用藥(yao)防治(zhi)時千(qian)萬要注意安全(quan)采(cai)收期。
來源:上海市農技中心植保科
