根據各地(di)夏殘(can)蝗(huang)調(diao)查結果，結合我(wo)省蝗(huang)區(qu)氣(qi)象、生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)態條(tiao)件及歷史資料(liao)等(deng)因素分析，預(yu)(yu)計我(wo)省秋季東(dong)亞飛蝗(huang)中(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，局(ju)(ju)部地(di)區(qu)偏(pian)重(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)(mian)積96萬(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)，達(da)(da)(da)標(biao)面(mian)(mian)(mian)積65萬(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)。其中(zhong)黃(huang)河(he)流域(yu)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)38.5萬(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)，達(da)(da)(da)標(biao)28.8萬(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)，分別(bie)較去(qu)年(nian)(nian)增加(jia)1.2萬(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)和(he)1.4萬(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)；渭河(he)流域(yu)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)39.5萬(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)，達(da)(da)(da)標(biao)27.8萬(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)，分別(bie)較去(qu)年(nian)(nian)增加(jia)1.5萬(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)和(he)減少0.6萬(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)；鹵泊(bo)灘發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)18萬(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)，達(da)(da)(da)標(biao)8萬(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)，與去(qu)年(nian)(nian)相當。蝗(huang)蝻出土盛期預(yu)(yu)計在(zai)7月22日(ri)(ri)-8月1日(ri)(ri)，三(san)齡蝗(huang)蝻盛期在(zai)8月7日(ri)(ri)-15日(ri)(ri)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)期較歷年(nian)(nian)晚1-2天。重(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)區(qu)域(yu)在(zai)黃(huang)、渭河(he)荒(huang)草灘、黃(huang)河(he)雞心灘和(he)三(san)河(he)交匯處，局(ju)(ju)地(di)可能(neng)出現高(gao)密(mi)度蝗(huang)片(pian)。土蝗(huang)預(yu)(yu)計在(zai)渭北塬(yuan)區(qu)及延安、榆林部分區(qu)域(yu)坡塬(yuan)地(di)帶(dai)中(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)(mian)積180萬(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)，達(da)(da)(da)標(biao)80多萬(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)，防治適期在(zai)8月中(zhong)旬。
預報依據：
1、夏殘蝗(huang)面積(ji)減少，總(zong)體密度降低，但較(jiao)(jiao)去年(nian)(nian)(nian)偏(pian)高(gao)。據6月底至7月初蝗(huang)區(qu)各(ge)縣(xian)（市(shi)、區(qu)、處）調查(cha)，全省共(gong)取樣(yang)點2202個，有蝗(huang)樣(yang)點率(lv)51.9%，總(zong)殘蝗(huang)面積(ji)57.3萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)，較(jiao)(jiao)去年(nian)(nian)(nian)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)2.6萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)，少于(yu)歷年(nian)(nian)(nian)。其中90—149頭/公(gong)頃(qing)(qing)的20.8萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)，較(jiao)(jiao)去年(nian)(nian)(nian)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)0.8萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)；150—450頭/公(gong)頃(qing)(qing)的23.2萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)，較(jiao)(jiao)去年(nian)(nian)(nian)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)0.7萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)；451—1500頭/公(gong)頃(qing)(qing)的9.4萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)，較(jiao)(jiao)去年(nian)(nian)(nian)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)0.9萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)；1500頭/公(gong)頃(qing)(qing)以上的3.9萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)，較(jiao)(jiao)去年(nian)(nian)(nian)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)0.2萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)，最高(gao)密度3260頭/公(gong)頃(qing)(qing)。
2、生(sheng)(sheng)態條件。一是(shi)黃渭洛河灘(tan)、鹵泊灘(tan)大部分灘(tan)地已開墾(ken)種植，且今年秋(qiu)播期間土壤(rang)商情較好(hao)，秋(qiu)播面積大，中耕除草和(he)噴施農(nong)藥等都會抑制秋(qiu)蝗發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)。二是(shi)秋(qiu)季多(duo)雨(yu)，近河道灘(tan)地和(he)部分灘(tan)區撂(liao)荒(huang)農(nong)田雜草生(sheng)(sheng)長茂盛，為蝗蟲提供豐富的食料(liao)，有利蝗蟲孽(nie)生(sheng)(sheng)。
3、氣象條件。據氣象部門預報，7月下旬至8月上旬，西安、咸陽和渭南降水較歷年偏少，并有一段高溫天氣，對秋蝗的發育不利。
來源：陜(shan)西省植物保護工作總站
