雜交玉米種子供大于求，玉米、棉花種子價格將呈上升趨勢
日前，筆(bi)者從第八屆全國(guo)(guo)種(zhong)子(zi)(zi)(zi)雙交會(hui)上了解到，明(ming)年全國(guo)(guo)主要農作物種(zhong)子(zi)(zi)(zi)供應充足，今年玉(yu)米雜交種(zhong)子(zi)(zi)(zi)上漲超出預期，明(ming)年玉(yu)米雜交種(zhong)子(zi)(zi)(zi)價格仍呈上升態(tai)勢，玉(yu)米單粒播種(zhong)子(zi)(zi)(zi)和精品種(zhong)子(zi)(zi)(zi)市場份額繼續擴大。異常的氣候加大了制(zhi)種(zhong)的風(feng)險(xian)和成(cheng)本，制(zhi)種(zhong)基地比較效益低、風(feng)險(xian)抵(di)御能力差、管理難度大等(deng)問題依然存在(zai)，亟待解決。
雜交玉米種子供大于求
由于今(jin)年(nian)(nian)春季低(di)溫，花期高溫干旱，受災面(mian)廣，全國雜交玉米種(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)總體因災減產(chan)18%左右,其中吉林、遼寧(ning)、內蒙古、河北、山西、甘(gan)肅(su)、新疆等主要(yao)基(ji)地減產(chan)都在(zai)15%-20%；四川、云南、貴州及黑龍江等地沒(mei)有減產(chan)，屬(shu)于正常年(nian)(nian)份。2010年(nian)(nian)制(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)面(mian)積(ji)388萬畝，制(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)產(chan)量11.5億(yi)公斤(jin)(jin)，有效(xiao)庫存4.3億(yi)公斤(jin)(jin)以上。2011年(nian)(nian)可供種(zhong)(zhong)量15.7億(yi)公斤(jin)(jin)以上，預計種(zhong)(zhong)植面(mian)積(ji)4.90億(yi)畝，需種(zhong)(zhong)量11.3億(yi)公斤(jin)(jin)，余種(zhong)(zhong)量4.5億(yi)公斤(jin)(jin)以上。
玉(yu)(yu)米生產(chan)和(he)品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)需(xu)求變化表現在以(yi)下(xia)(xia)幾個(ge)方面(mian)(mian)：1.制(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)面(mian)(mian)積增(zeng)加(jia)(jia)，畝(mu)用種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)量(liang)(liang)減少。2010年(nian)(nian)制(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)面(mian)(mian)積在2009年(nian)(nian)基(ji)(ji)礎上繼(ji)續(xu)增(zeng)加(jia)(jia)55萬畝(mu)，但因災總產(chan)量(liang)(liang)基(ji)(ji)本(ben)(ben)與去年(nian)(nian)持平。由于(yu)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)質量(liang)(liang)提高，“精品(pin)”種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)、“單(dan)粒播(bo)”種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)市(shi)場銷(xiao)量(liang)(liang)增(zeng)加(jia)(jia)明顯，畝(mu)用種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)量(liang)(liang)進(jin)一步減少。2.大(da)田種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)植(zhi)面(mian)(mian)積繼(ji)續(xu)增(zeng)加(jia)(jia)。2010年(nian)(nian)全國雜交(jiao)玉(yu)(yu)米種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)植(zhi)面(mian)(mian)積比2009年(nian)(nian)增(zeng)加(jia)(jia)近2000萬畝(mu)，總種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)植(zhi)面(mian)(mian)積約4.75億(yi)畝(mu)。預計(ji)2011年(nian)(nian)雜交(jiao)玉(yu)(yu)米種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)植(zhi)面(mian)(mian)積將(jiang)(jiang)進(jin)一步增(zeng)加(jia)(jia),有(you)可(ke)能達到(dao)(dao)4.9億(yi)畝(mu)的(de)歷史新高。3.品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)需(xu)求趨勢(shi)沒(mei)有(you)改變。農(nong)村勞動力(li)缺(que)乏，粗(cu)放種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)植(zhi)習慣越(yue)來越(yue)明顯，耐密、優(you)質、降(jiang)水快(kuai)的(de)品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)仍最受歡迎。品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)需(xu)求向區(qu)域(yu)性大(da)品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)集(ji)中,單(dan)粒播(bo)及(ji)精品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)市(shi)場份額擴大(da)。預計(ji)這個(ge)格局在2011年(nian)(nian)不會有(you)明顯的(de)改變。4.庫存數量(liang)(liang)穩(wen)定下(xia)(xia)降(jiang)，經營(ying)形(xing)勢(shi)趨好(hao)發展。由于(yu)2010年(nian)(nian)雜交(jiao)玉(yu)(yu)米種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)植(zhi)面(mian)(mian)積比預計(ji)增(zeng)加(jia)(jia)2000萬畝(mu)，總用種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)量(liang)(liang)則相(xiang)應增(zeng)加(jia)(jia)，庫存相(xiang)應降(jiang)低。連(lian)續(xu)多年(nian)(nian)的(de)供過(guo)于(yu)求，致(zhi)(zhi)使(shi)部分種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)因庫存時間和(he)品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)結構(gou)等原因，已淪(lun)為無效庫存。2009年(nian)(nian)、2010年(nian)(nian)、2011年(nian)(nian)將(jiang)(jiang)連(lian)續(xu)三年(nian)(nian)庫存維持在4.5億(yi)公(gong)斤左右，企業(ye)經營(ying)狀況得到(dao)(dao)好(hao)轉。5.2011年(nian)(nian)各種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)植(zhi)區(qu)域(yu)供求形(xing)勢(shi)基(ji)(ji)本(ben)(ben)一致(zhi)(zhi)。由于(yu)今年(nian)(nian)西南(nan)地(di)區(qu)、黑龍江地(di)區(qu)等基(ji)(ji)地(di)制(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)面(mian)(mian)積擴大(da)且基(ji)(ji)本(ben)(ben)沒(mei)有(you)受災，種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)產(chan)量(liang)(liang)高于(yu)往年(nian)(nian)。預計(ji)2011年(nian)(nian)各玉(yu)(yu)米種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)植(zhi)區(qu)域(yu)的(de)供求形(xing)勢(shi)基(ji)(ji)本(ben)(ben)一致(zhi)(zhi)，屬供大(da)于(yu)求，程(cheng)度(du)與2010年(nian)(nian)基(ji)(ji)本(ben)(ben)相(xiang)同。
雜交玉米種價格呈上升趨勢
今(jin)年(nian)雜交(jiao)玉米種子(zi)價格總體漲(zhang)幅10%左(zuo)右。2010年(nian)雜交(jiao)玉米種子(zi)價格上(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)超過預期。雜交(jiao)玉米種子(zi)中單(dan)粒(li)播(bo)種子(zi)價格上(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)幅度，遠大于全國的平均漲(zhang)幅，甚至有少數品種價格漲(zhang)幅超過50%。
2010年玉(yu)米種子單(dan)粒(li)播及精品(pin)種子價格(ge)較(jiao)高(gao)，多數(shu)屬(shu)市(shi)場(chang)新(xin)品(pin)種，無法計(ji)算同比上(shang)漲(zhang)幅度(du)，但(dan)肯定遠超(chao)過(guo)10%。2011年各(ge)類單(dan)粒(li)播或標為 “精品(pin)”的(de)玉(yu)米種子會(hui)大量增多，市(shi)場(chang)價格(ge)較(jiao)高(gao)，受市(shi)場(chang)歡(huan)迎程度(du)將明顯(xian)高(gao)于其他種子，畝用(yong)種量也因此會(hui)有較(jiao)大幅度(du)降低(di)。玉(yu)米種子前(qian)高(gao)后(hou)低(di)的(de)市(shi)場(chang)價格(ge)走(zou)勢(shi)依然存在(zai)，由(you)于制種成本上(shang)漲(zhang)、物(wu)價上(shang)漲(zhang)及雜交(jiao)水(shui)稻(dao)種子上(shang)漲(zhang)的(de)示范效(xiao)應，2011年雜交(jiao)玉(yu)米種子價格(ge)可(ke)(ke)能大于2010年的(de)上(shang)漲(zhang)幅度(du)，但(dan)由(you)于供大于求，仍可(ke)(ke)能出現前(qian)高(gao)后(hou)低(di)的(de)價格(ge)走(zou)勢(shi)。
棉花小麥冬油菜種子供應充足
2011年(nian)(nian)全國棉(mian)(mian)(mian)花(hua)(hua)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子供需(xu)平(ping)衡有(you)余。明年(nian)(nian)新疆(jiang)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)區(qu)(qu)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)植面積在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)2100萬(wan)(wan)畝左(zuo)(zuo)右，需(xu)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)1.1億公(gong)斤，今年(nian)(nian)制種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)105萬(wan)(wan)畝，可產(chan)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)1.1億公(gong)斤，庫(ku)存(cun)1800萬(wan)(wan)公(gong)斤以(yi)(yi)上(shang)(shang)，明年(nian)(nian)可供種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)1.28億公(gong)斤以(yi)(yi)上(shang)(shang)，完全可以(yi)(yi)滿足(zu)大(da)田用種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)需(xu)求(qiu)；黃淮(huai)流(liu)(liu)域棉(mian)(mian)(mian)區(qu)(qu)和(he)長江流(liu)(liu)域棉(mian)(mian)(mian)區(qu)(qu)共種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)植棉(mian)(mian)(mian)花(hua)(hua)5200萬(wan)(wan)畝左(zuo)(zuo)右，其中雜(za)交(jiao)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)花(hua)(hua)在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)2000萬(wan)(wan)畝左(zuo)(zuo)右，需(xu)雜(za)交(jiao)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)750萬(wan)(wan)公(gong)斤左(zuo)(zuo)右。今年(nian)(nian)雜(za)交(jiao)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)制種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)面積也在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)7萬(wan)(wan)畝以(yi)(yi)上(shang)(shang)，可產(chan)雜(za)交(jiao)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)600萬(wan)(wan)公(gong)斤以(yi)(yi)上(shang)(shang)，庫(ku)存(cun)在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)300萬(wan)(wan)公(gong)斤以(yi)(yi)上(shang)(shang)，可以(yi)(yi)滿足(zu)明年(nian)(nian)大(da)田用種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)需(xu)求(qiu)。2010年(nian)(nian)我國主產(chan)區(qu)(qu)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)花(hua)(hua)制種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)都(dou)有(you)一(yi)定程(cheng)度的(de)受災，再加上(shang)(shang)籽(zi)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)收購價上(shang)(shang)漲等因素，給(gei)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)收購帶(dai)來困難，棉(mian)(mian)(mian)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)質量有(you)一(yi)定隱(yin)患。由于近年(nian)(nian)來棉(mian)(mian)(mian)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)市場低迷，價格(ge)(ge)有(you)補漲需(xu)求(qiu)，再加上(shang)(shang)今年(nian)(nian)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)花(hua)(hua)收購價格(ge)(ge)漲幅巨大(da)，預計(ji)2011年(nian)(nian)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)價格(ge)(ge)會(hui)有(you)明顯上(shang)(shang)漲。
據統計(ji)，今(jin)年(nian)冬(dong)(dong)小(xiao)麥計(ji)劃制(zhi)種面(mian)積1000萬畝以(yi)上(shang)(shang)，雜交油(you)菜(cai)計(ji)劃制(zhi)種面(mian)積也在13萬畝以(yi)上(shang)(shang)，常規油(you)菜(cai)計(ji)劃制(zhi)種面(mian)積6萬畝以(yi)上(shang)(shang)，與去年(nian)情況(kuang)(kuang)基本(ben)一致。預計(ji)明年(nian)冬(dong)(dong)小(xiao)麥、冬(dong)(dong)油(you)菜(cai)種子(zi)供需(xu)也應是供需(xu)平衡有(you)余年(nian)份，具體情況(kuang)(kuang)還有(you)待于后期觀(guan)察。
