一、總趨勢
根(gen)據全省各地冬前(qian)農作(zuo)(zuo)物(wu)病(bing)(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)越冬基數，結合近(jin)(jin)年(nian)(nian)病(bing)(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)發(fa)生(sheng)態(tai)勢(shi)、作(zuo)(zuo)物(wu)布局、氣象條(tiao)件等(deng)(deng)綜合因素(su)，組織有(you)關專家會(hui)商分析，預(yu)計２０１１年(nian)(nian)我省農作(zuo)(zuo)物(wu)主要病(bing)(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)呈中(zhong)等(deng)(deng)、局部(bu)偏重(zhong)發(fa)生(sheng)，發(fa)生(sheng)程度(du)接近(jin)(jin)２０１０年(nian)(nian)。全省病(bing)(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)草鼠發(fa)生(sheng)面(mian)積１．７５億畝次以上。偏重(zhong)發(fa)生(sheng)的(de)(de)病(bing)(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)有(you)地下害蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)、小(xiao)麥紅(hong)蜘(zhi)蛛(zhu)、小(xiao)麥穗蚜、玉(yu)(yu)米(mi)螟、玉(yu)(yu)米(mi)紅(hong)蜘(zhi)蛛(zhu)、保護地蔬菜(cai)霜霉病(bing)(bing)(bing)、露地蔬菜(cai)病(bing)(bing)(bing)毒病(bing)(bing)(bing)、小(xiao)菜(cai)蛾以及(ji)北部(bu)地區(qu)的(de)(de)玉(yu)(yu)米(mi)大小(xiao)斑(ban)、馬鈴薯晚疫病(bing)(bing)(bing)、土蝗，南部(bu)的(de)(de)棉蚜、棉盲蝽、蘋果樹腐爛病(bing)(bing)(bing)、蘋果褐斑(ban)病(bing)(bing)(bing)、蘋果斑(ban)點落葉病(bing)(bing)(bing)、梨小(xiao)食心蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)等(deng)(deng)。
二、主要農作物(wu)病蟲(chong)發生趨勢(shi)
１、小麥(mai)(mai)病(bing)(bing)(bing)蟲害(hai)(hai) 小麥(mai)(mai)病(bing)(bing)(bing)蟲總(zong)體中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)(deng)(deng)，局(ju)(ju)部(bu)(bu)偏(pian)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)。其中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)地下害(hai)(hai)蟲中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)(deng)(deng)，局(ju)(ju)部(bu)(bu)偏(pian)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，程度重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)于上(shang)年(nian)，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)(ji)５７０萬(wan)畝(mu)；小麥(mai)(mai)紅(hong)蜘蛛(zhu)在(zai)晉南麥(mai)(mai)區旱垣、向(xiang)陽坡(po)地中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)(deng)(deng)至偏(pian)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)(ji)４９０萬(wan)畝(mu)；小麥(mai)(mai)穗蚜偏(pian)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)，局(ju)(ju)部(bu)(bu)大發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)(ji)５７０萬(wan)畝(mu)；小麥(mai)(mai)吸漿蟲偏(pian)輕(qing)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，運(yun)城、臨汾局(ju)(ju)部(bu)(bu)高水肥(fei)麥(mai)(mai)田(tian)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)(deng)(deng)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)(ji)１００萬(wan)畝(mu)；白粉病(bing)(bing)(bing)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)(deng)(deng)，局(ju)(ju)部(bu)(bu)偏(pian)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)(ji)３１０萬(wan)畝(mu)；紋枯(ku)病(bing)(bing)(bing)在(zai)南部(bu)(bu)高水肥(fei)麥(mai)(mai)田(tian)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)(deng)(deng)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，程度重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)于上(shang)年(nian)，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)(ji)２７０萬(wan)畝(mu)；葉(xie)銹病(bing)(bing)(bing)偏(pian)輕(qing)至中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)(deng)(deng)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，流行面(mian)積(ji)(ji)(ji)１３０萬(wan)畝(mu)；小麥(mai)(mai)條銹病(bing)(bing)(bing)在(zai)運(yun)城麥(mai)(mai)區偏(pian)輕(qing)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)(ji)８０萬(wan)畝(mu)。
２、玉(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)米(mi)(mi)病(bing)蟲(chong)害 玉(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)米(mi)(mi)螟中(zhong)等(deng)(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)，部分甜糯(nuo)玉(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)米(mi)(mi)集中(zhong)產區(qu)(qu)及三代區(qu)(qu)偏(pian)重(zhong)(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)９００萬(wan)畝(mu)次；玉(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)米(mi)(mi)蚜蟲(chong)中(zhong)等(deng)(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)２６０萬(wan)畝(mu)；玉(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)米(mi)(mi)葉(xie)螨偏(pian)重(zhong)(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)，部分沙壤旱作區(qu)(qu)有大(da)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)可能，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)６５０萬(wan)畝(mu)；雙斑螢葉(xie)甲在(zai)各(ge)玉(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)米(mi)(mi)產區(qu)(qu)呈加重(zhong)(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)態勢(shi)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)５９０萬(wan)畝(mu)；玉(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)米(mi)(mi)大(da)（小）斑病(bing)在(zai)北部地區(qu)(qu)中(zhong)等(deng)(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)２５５萬(wan)畝(mu)；玉(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)米(mi)(mi)絲黑穗(sui)病(bing)、瘤黑粉(fen)病(bing)在(zai)晉中(zhong)、大(da)同、呂梁(liang)、長治(zhi)等(deng)(deng)多年(nian)重(zhong)(zhong)茬種植玉(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)米(mi)(mi)田(tian)中(zhong)等(deng)(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)分別為１００萬(wan)畝(mu)和(he)１６０萬(wan)畝(mu)；另外(wai)，玉(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)米(mi)(mi)矮花葉(xie)病(bing)、頂腐(fu)病(bing)在(zai)南部運(yun)城、臨汾(fen)復播玉(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)米(mi)(mi)區(qu)(qu)有重(zhong)(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)可能，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)均在(zai)５０萬(wan)畝(mu)以上(shang)；小地老(lao)虎在(zai)呂梁(liang)平(ping)川的文峪河、汾(fen)河、忻定盆地的滹(hu)沱(tuo)河沿岸中(zhong)等(deng)(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)１５０萬(wan)畝(mu)。
３、暴發性病蟲害 東亞飛蝗（夏蝗）中(zhong)等發生(sheng)，局部(bu)有出現(xian)高(gao)密度(du)點片(pian)的可能，發生(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)４０萬畝，需(xu)防治面(mian)積(ji)(ji)２５萬畝；土蝗在北部(bu)常發區偏(pian)重發生(sheng)，面(mian)積(ji)(ji)５００萬畝左右；一(yi)代草(cao)地螟輕(qing)(qing)發生(sheng)，但不排除外(wai)地蟲源遷入，在局部(bu)造成嚴(yan)重危害的可能；粘蟲偏(pian)輕(qing)(qing)發生(sheng)，發生(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)２６０萬畝次。
４、雜(za)糧病蟲害 粟灰螟在(zai)(zai)長治(zhi)、呂梁、晉中(zhong)(zhong)偏(pian)輕發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，程度接近(jin)常年(nian)，發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積１００萬畝；谷子白發(fa)病呈上升態(tai)勢，在(zai)(zai)晉城、長治(zhi)、忻州等地(di)偏(pian)輕發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積７０萬畝。高粱(liang)蚜在(zai)(zai)高粱(liang)集中(zhong)(zhong)產區偏(pian)重發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積５０萬畝。
５、馬鈴(ling)薯(shu)(shu)病(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)害 馬鈴(ling)薯(shu)(shu)２８星瓢蟲(chong)中等，局部(bu)(bu)偏重發生(sheng)，發生(sheng)面積(ji)２００萬畝(mu)(mu)；馬鈴(ling)薯(shu)(shu)豆芫(yan)菁偏輕發生(sheng)，發生(sheng)面積(ji)９５萬畝(mu)(mu)；馬鈴(ling)薯(shu)(shu)晚疫病(bing)(bing)在北(bei)部(bu)(bu)丘陵區偏重發生(sheng)，發生(sheng)面積(ji)１５０萬畝(mu)(mu)。
６、棉(mian)(mian)(mian)花病(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)害(hai) 棉(mian)(mian)(mian)花苗(miao)(miao)蚜中(zhong)等(deng)至(zhi)(zhi)偏(pian)重發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)１００萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)；棉(mian)(mian)(mian)鈴蟲(chong)在抗(kang)蟲(chong)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)田偏(pian)輕(qing)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)，在抗(kang)性(xing)差或(huo)非抗(kang)蟲(chong)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)田中(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)２００萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)次；棉(mian)(mian)(mian)盲蝽偏(pian)重發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)８５萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)次；棉(mian)(mian)(mian)薊馬(ma)、棉(mian)(mian)(mian)葉(xie)螨(man)中(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)分別(bie)為４０萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)、５５萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)次；棉(mian)(mian)(mian)枯(ku)黃萎病(bing)(bing)中(zhong)等(deng)至(zhi)(zhi)偏(pian)重發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)７０萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)；棉(mian)(mian)(mian)花苗(miao)(miao)病(bing)(bing)中(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)４０萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)。
７、果樹(shu)(shu)病蟲(chong)害 蘋果樹(shu)(shu)腐(fu)爛病偏(pian)(pian)(pian)重(zhong)發(fa)生(sheng)，發(fa)生(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)３００萬(wan)(wan)畝；蘋果褐斑病中等(deng)至偏(pian)(pian)(pian)重(zhong)發(fa)生(sheng)，發(fa)生(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)２００萬(wan)(wan)畝； 斑點落葉(xie)病中等(deng)至偏(pian)(pian)(pian)重(zhong)發(fa)生(sheng)，發(fa)生(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)１５０萬(wan)(wan)畝； 果樹(shu)(shu)白粉病中等(deng)發(fa)生(sheng)，發(fa)生(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)９０萬(wan)(wan)畝。果樹(shu)(shu)葉(xie)螨、金紋(wen)細(xi)蛾(e)中等(deng)至偏(pian)(pian)(pian)重(zhong)發(fa)生(sheng)，發(fa)生(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)分(fen)別為３５０、１４５萬(wan)(wan)畝次。蘋小(xiao)卷葉(xie)蛾(e)，桃小(xiao)食心蟲(chong)偏(pian)(pian)(pian)輕發(fa)生(sheng)，發(fa)生(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)分(fen)別為８０、１４５萬(wan)(wan)畝。梨(li)小(xiao)食心蟲(chong)在(zai)桃樹(shu)(shu)和梨(li)樹(shu)(shu)上偏(pian)(pian)(pian)重(zhong)發(fa)生(sheng)。
８、蔬(shu)(shu)(shu)菜(cai)(cai)(cai)病(bing)蟲(chong)害 保(bao)護(hu)地(di)蔬(shu)(shu)(shu)菜(cai)(cai)(cai)霜霉(mei)病(bing)、葉霉(mei)病(bing)、灰霉(mei)病(bing)、番(fan)茄(qie)晚疫病(bing)、白(bai)粉(fen)(fen)病(bing)以及葉菜(cai)(cai)(cai)類蔬(shu)(shu)(shu)菜(cai)(cai)(cai)細菌性病(bing)害偏重發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)；保(bao)護(hu)地(di)蔬(shu)(shu)(shu)菜(cai)(cai)(cai)蚜蟲(chong)、美洲斑潛蠅、粉(fen)(fen)虱等(deng)小型(xing)害蟲(chong)中(zhong)等(deng)至(zhi)偏重發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)；小菜(cai)(cai)(cai)蛾、蚜蟲(chong)、甘藍(lan)夜蛾、煙粉(fen)(fen)虱等(deng)在我省露(lu)地(di)蔬(shu)(shu)(shu)菜(cai)(cai)(cai)田，尤其(qi)是葉菜(cai)(cai)(cai)類集中(zhong)種植(zhi)區偏重發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)；露(lu)地(di)蔬(shu)(shu)(shu)菜(cai)(cai)(cai)病(bing)毒病(bing)、茄(qie)子黃萎病(bing)、番(fan)茄(qie)早（晚）疫病(bing)、白(bai)粉(fen)(fen)病(bing)等(deng)中(zhong)等(deng)，局部偏重發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)。蔬(shu)(shu)(shu)菜(cai)(cai)(cai)病(bing)蟲(chong)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面積１４００萬畝次。
三、預報依據
１、冬(dong)前病蟲基數 各麥(mai)(mai)區１１月１５日至２０日對麥(mai)(mai)田(tian)(tian)病蟲進行(xing)(xing)冬(dong)前普查：麥(mai)(mai)蜘蛛發生輕(qing)于(yu)(yu)(yu)上年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)，高(gao)(gao)(gao)于(yu)(yu)(yu)常(chang)(chang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)，平(ping)均(jun)尺(chi)行(xing)(xing)長有(you)蟲１０．５頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，最(zui)(zui)(zui)(zui)高(gao)(gao)(gao)２４１頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，分別(bie)比(bi)上年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)低(di)(di)５．３頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)和６９頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，但比(bi)常(chang)(chang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)高(gao)(gao)(gao)１０％左右。麥(mai)(mai)蚜(ya)基數明(ming)顯高(gao)(gao)(gao)于(yu)(yu)(yu)去(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)和常(chang)(chang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)期(qi)，一般百株蚜(ya)量８．４３－５７．２頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，最(zui)(zui)(zui)(zui)高(gao)(gao)(gao)１８７頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，明(ming)顯高(gao)(gao)(gao)于(yu)(yu)(yu)上年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)的(de)３．１７－６頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)和２９頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)。各地(di)吸(xi)漿蟲基數與上年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)持平(ping)，但明(ming)顯低(di)(di)于(yu)(yu)(yu)近５年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)均(jun)值(zhi)，其中永(yong)濟平(ping)均(jun)每(mei)小樣(yang)方有(you)蟲繭１．９頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，最(zui)(zui)(zui)(zui)高(gao)(gao)(gao)４頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，接(jie)(jie)近去(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)的(de)１．７頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，最(zui)(zui)(zui)(zui)高(gao)(gao)(gao)６頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，明(ming)顯低(di)(di)于(yu)(yu)(yu)２００６年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)、２００７年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)期(qi)；萬榮縣平(ping)均(jun)１．０５頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，最(zui)(zui)(zui)(zui)高(gao)(gao)(gao)５頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，與去(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)的(de)１．０３和４頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)基本持平(ping)；堯都區平(ping)均(jun)０．５頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，最(zui)(zui)(zui)(zui)高(gao)(gao)(gao)２頭(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)，與上年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)相同(tong)(tong)。小麥(mai)(mai)白粉病冬(dong)前一般病田(tian)(tian)率５０％，最(zui)(zui)(zui)(zui)高(gao)(gao)(gao)９０％，一般病葉(xie)率３－８％，局(ju)部早播(bo)旺長麥(mai)(mai)田(tian)(tian)病葉(xie)率高(gao)(gao)(gao)達(da)４０％以(yi)上，發病程度(du)輕(qing)于(yu)(yu)(yu)上年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)，重于(yu)(yu)(yu)常(chang)(chang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)。葉(xie)銹病發生輕(qing)于(yu)(yu)(yu)上年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)，接(jie)(jie)近常(chang)(chang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)期(qi)。條銹病越冬(dong)未查到。
玉(yu)米(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)病(bing)(bing)(bing)蟲中(zhong)，玉(yu)米(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)螟百(bai)(bai)桿(gan)含蟲全省平均(jun)(jun)１９．５４頭，總(zong)體(ti)較(jiao)(jiao)歷年平均(jun)(jun)值減少(shao)１２．６％，但局(ju)部(bu)地(di)(di)(di)區基數(shu)明(ming)顯偏高(gao)，如(ru)永(yong)濟市百(bai)(bai)桿(gan)含蟲２４．８頭，為歷史最(zui)高(gao)年。忻(xin)(xin)州(zhou)(zhou)市百(bai)(bai)桿(gan)含蟲５８頭，較(jiao)(jiao)常年增加１３％，最(zui)高(gao)百(bai)(bai)桿(gan)含蟲４２８頭，達忻(xin)(xin)州(zhou)(zhou)歷史之最(zui)。玉(yu)米(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)大(da)（小(xiao)）斑病(bing)(bing)(bing)、絲(si)黑(hei)穗(sui)病(bing)(bing)(bing)局(ju)部(bu)菌源(yuan)量較(jiao)(jiao)高(gao)。２０１０年玉(yu)米(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)大(da)（小(xiao)）斑病(bing)(bing)(bing)在(zai)大(da)同、忻(xin)(xin)州(zhou)(zhou)偏重發(fa)生，大(da)同市８月(yue)上(shang)旬調(diao)(diao)查，一般田(tian)塊病(bing)(bing)(bing)株(zhu)率(lv)３０－５０％，最(zui)高(gao)８６％，特(te)別(bie)是先(xian)玉(yu)３３５品(pin)種田(tian)，平均(jun)(jun)達到了６０％左(zuo)右(you)；忻(xin)(xin)府區８月(yue)１７日(ri)調(diao)(diao)查，水地(di)(di)(di)糯(nuo)玉(yu)米(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)田(tian)病(bing)(bing)(bing)株(zhu)率(lv)達８０％。２０１０年玉(yu)米(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)絲(si)黑(hei)穗(sui)病(bing)(bing)(bing)在(zai)忻(xin)(xin)州(zhou)(zhou)、呂梁、大(da)同局(ju)部(bu)地(di)(di)(di)塊發(fa)生較(jiao)(jiao)重，品(pin)種間發(fa)生程度差異明(ming)顯，忻(xin)(xin)州(zhou)(zhou)市９月(yue)調(diao)(diao)查，雙(shuang)惠２號(hao)、先(xian)玉(yu)３３５玉(yu)米(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)、鄭單９５８等(deng)品(pin)種發(fa)病(bing)(bing)(bing)明(ming)顯較(jiao)(jiao)重，最(zui)重地(di)(di)(di)塊病(bing)(bing)(bing)株(zhu)率(lv)高(gao)達４０－８０％。
東(dong)亞(ya)飛蝗(huang)殘(can)蝗(huang)面積(ji)(ji)２８．８萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)，較去年(nian)的(de)(de)(de)１７．８萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)增(zeng)加(jia)１１萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)。每(mei)(mei)公頃殘(can)蝗(huang)密(mi)度９０頭以(yi)下的(de)(de)(de)面積(ji)(ji)９萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)，９０ －１４９頭的(de)(de)(de)面積(ji)(ji)１０．７萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)，１５０ －４５０頭的(de)(de)(de)面積(ji)(ji)６．１萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)，４５１－１５００頭的(de)(de)(de)面積(ji)(ji)３萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)，最(zui)高(gao)密(mi)度每(mei)(mei)公頃１８００頭，高(gao)于近兩年(nian)。１１月(yue)挖卵(luan)調查(cha)，平(ping)(ping)均每(mei)(mei)平(ping)(ping)方(fang)米(mi)(mi)有(you)卵(luan)０．６塊，每(mei)(mei)平(ping)(ping)方(fang)米(mi)(mi)有(you)卵(luan)２３．６粒(li)(li)，永(yong)濟蝗(huang)蟲(chong)重(zhong)發區每(mei)(mei)平(ping)(ping)方(fang)米(mi)(mi)最(zui)高(gao)有(you)卵(luan)２０塊左右。土蝗(huang)殘(can)蝗(huang)３２８萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)，比(bi)去年(nian)增(zeng)加(jia)１８萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)，平(ping)(ping)均每(mei)(mei)平(ping)(ping)方(fang)米(mi)(mi)有(you)卵(luan)１．８塊，每(mei)(mei)平(ping)(ping)方(fang)米(mi)(mi)有(you)卵(luan)２４．３粒(li)(li)，最(zui)高(gao)每(mei)(mei)平(ping)(ping)方(fang)米(mi)(mi)５．３塊，卵(luan)塊密(mi)度與前(qian)兩年(nian)持(chi)平(ping)(ping)，但(dan)每(mei)(mei)平(ping)(ping)方(fang)米(mi)(mi)卵(luan)粒(li)(li)數較去年(nian)高(gao)１３粒(li)(li)，接(jie)近前(qian)年(nian)。
地(di)下(xia)害蟲(chong)(chong)基數偏高。２０１０年忻州(zhou)、大同、太原(yuan)局部地(di)區地(di)下(xia)害蟲(chong)(chong)發(fa)生(sheng)嚴重(zhong)，其中忻州(zhou)市牧馬河(he)畔(pan)５００畝鹽堿下(xia)濕地(di)缺苗(miao)率平(ping)(ping)(ping)均(jun)達到１４％，最多的(de)１穴挖(wa)出１４頭(tou)(tou)金針(zhen)(zhen)蟲(chong)(chong)；大同市南郊區重(zhong)發(fa)田(tian)塊每平(ping)(ping)(ping)方米有(you)金針(zhen)(zhen)蟲(chong)(chong)８－１３頭(tou)(tou)，單株玉米根部有(you)蟲(chong)(chong)最高達２４頭(tou)(tou)。各麥區９月份調查(cha)，全省有(you)蟲(chong)(chong)田(tian)率達到８０％以上，平(ping)(ping)(ping)均(jun)每平(ping)(ping)(ping)方米有(you)蟲(chong)(chong)２．５－３．６頭(tou)(tou)，萬(wan)榮等地(di)重(zhong)發(fa)田(tian)每平(ping)(ping)(ping)方米有(you)蟲(chong)(chong)１３頭(tou)(tou)以上，蟲(chong)(chong)量接近去年高于歷年。１１月中旬在收獲后的(de)玉米田(tian)挖(wa)土調查(cha)，平(ping)(ping)(ping)均(jun)每平(ping)(ping)(ping)方米有(you)蟲(chong)(chong)２．８６頭(tou)(tou)，較常年增(zeng)加２０．５％。
呂梁(liang)、大同(tong)、長治、忻州調查，粟灰螟谷子百茬含蟲分(fen)別為(wei)１．９８頭、２．４頭、５、１．３５頭，最高(gao)(gao)８頭；除忻州略(lve)低(di)于(yu)去年外，其它均高(gao)(gao)于(yu)去年和近３ 年均值。馬鈴薯２８星瓢蟲冬前基數普遍較高(gao)(gao)。
冬前調(diao)(diao)查平均(jun)每(mei)平方(fang)米(mi)(mi)有(you)棉鈴蟲蛹(yong)：運城、臨汾(fen)棉田(tian)(tian)一般０．０２頭(tou)－０．１２頭(tou)，高(gao)于去年(nian)和近(jin)３年(nian)均(jun)值；玉米(mi)(mi)田(tian)(tian)一般０．０３頭(tou)－０．０９頭(tou)，略(lve)高(gao)于去年(nian)和近(jin)年(nian)；永濟(ji)市在菜(cai)田(tian)(tian)調(diao)(diao)查，每(mei)平方(fang)米(mi)(mi)有(you)棉鈴蟲蛹(yong)０．３８頭(tou)，晉中、太原(yuan)等(deng)地(di)在大豆、菜(cai)田(tian)(tian)未挖到蛹(yong)。１１月(yue)３０日(ri)運城調(diao)(diao)查，花椒(jiao)樹蚜(ya)枝率４０－７０％，五寸枝條有(you)棉蚜(ya)卵４－２５粒，略(lve)低于去年(nian)。
１１月(yue)底調查，蘋果(guo)樹(shu)腐爛病(bing)(bing)一(yi)(yi)般果(guo)園(yuan)(yuan)發病(bing)(bing)率(lv)２０－２６％，嚴(yan)重(zhong)果(guo)園(yuan)(yuan)高達(da)４０－７０％，發生(sheng)程度略重(zhong)于(yu)去(qu)年(nian)；蘋果(guo)白粉病(bing)(bing)一(yi)(yi)般果(guo)園(yuan)(yuan)病(bing)(bing)葉(xie)率(lv)８－１２％，重(zhong)者達(da)２０％，高于(yu)去(qu)年(nian)。果(guo)樹(shu)落(luo)葉(xie)前調查，斑點(dian)落(luo)葉(xie)病(bing)(bing)病(bing)(bing)葉(xie)率(lv)２１％，最高３０％，高于(yu)去(qu)年(nian)；蘋果(guo)褐斑病(bing)(bing)一(yi)(yi)般果(guo)園(yuan)(yuan)病(bing)(bing)葉(xie)率(lv)３２％，最高６０％，高于(yu)上年(nian)和歷年(nian)。
果實采收前調查(cha)，桃(tao)小食心蟲平(ping)均蛀果率５．３％，略低(di)于上(shang)年(nian)(nian)，最(zui)高９％；蘋小卷葉蛾一(yi)般果園頂梢卷葉率２－４％，百(bai)(bai)葉有(you)(you)蟲１．６頭(tou)(tou)(tou)，接近上(shang)年(nian)(nian)。１１月(yue)中旬調查(cha)，山(shan)楂葉螨每(mei)１００平(ping)方厘米有(you)(you)越冬螨１１頭(tou)(tou)(tou)，比去(qu)年(nian)(nian)低(di)１２頭(tou)(tou)(tou)，最(zui)高３０余頭(tou)(tou)(tou)。各果區果樹落葉前調查(cha)，金紋(wen)細蛾平(ping)均百(bai)(bai)葉有(you)(you)蟲斑２３個，比上(shang)年(nian)(nian)少４個；百(bai)(bai)葉平(ping)均有(you)(you)蟲１３．２頭(tou)(tou)(tou)，比上(shang)年(nian)(nian)低(di)２．２頭(tou)(tou)(tou)；最(zui)高３６頭(tou)(tou)(tou)，比上(shang)年(nian)(nian)低(di)２頭(tou)(tou)(tou)。
１１月中(zhong)(zhong)下(xia)旬，運(yun)城、太原、晉中(zhong)(zhong)、長治在(zai)保護地菜田調查(cha)：油菜田小菜蛾(e)蟲(chong)(chong)株(zhu)率(lv)(lv)７％－３５％，百(bai)(bai)株(zhu)蟲(chong)(chong)量(liang)７ －３２頭(tou)，低于去年(nian)和(he)近(jin)３年(nian)均值；美洲斑潛蠅蟲(chong)(chong)棚(peng)率(lv)(lv)２０－２５％，百(bai)(bai)株(zhu)蟲(chong)(chong)量(liang)７ －１２頭(tou)，最高５０頭(tou)；蚜蟲(chong)(chong)蟲(chong)(chong)棚(peng)率(lv)(lv)７％－３５％，百(bai)(bai)株(zhu)蟲(chong)(chong)量(liang)７ －３２頭(tou)；煙(yan)粉虱蟲(chong)(chong)棚(peng)率(lv)(lv)３１－５０％，最高１００％，百(bai)(bai)株(zhu)蟲(chong)(chong)量(liang)４７ －１９５頭(tou)，最高８５２頭(tou)；甘(gan)藍夜蛾(e)在(zai)太原每(mei)(mei)平方米蛹量(liang)６頭(tou)，明顯高于近(jin)年(nian)；菜青(qing)蟲(chong)(chong)在(zai)太原、長治每(mei)(mei)平方米蛹量(liang)２－３頭(tou)；黃瓜(gua)霜霉病(bing)(bing)(bing)病(bing)(bing)(bing)棚(peng)率(lv)(lv)、病(bing)(bing)(bing)株(zhu)率(lv)(lv)分別為１８－２０％和(he)２．４－６％，低于近(jin)兩年(nian)；番茄(qie)病(bing)(bing)(bing)毒(du)病(bing)(bing)(bing)近(jin)期在(zai)運(yun)城、臨汾發生較重，病(bing)(bing)(bing)棚(peng)率(lv)(lv)、病(bing)(bing)(bing)株(zhu)率(lv)(lv)分別達(da)６０－８０％和(he)１７－２７％，長治、晉中(zhong)(zhong)等地病(bing)(bing)(bing)棚(peng)率(lv)(lv)、病(bing)(bing)(bing)株(zhu)率(lv)(lv)分別達(da)７－２４％和(he)５％；芹菜斑枯病(bing)(bing)(bing)病(bing)(bing)(bing)棚(peng)率(lv)(lv)、病(bing)(bing)(bing)株(zhu)率(lv)(lv)分別達(da)１０－１２％和(he)８－２０％。
２、氣(qi)(qi)象條件 據山西省氣(qi)(qi)象臺氣(qi)(qi)候趨勢預測，２０１１年(nian)全省年(nian)降(jiang)水(shui)量正常至(zhi)偏(pian)少(shao)，年(nian)平均氣(qi)(qi)溫(wen)(wen)較常年(nian)偏(pian)高(gao)。冬季（１－２月(yue)）降(jiang)水(shui)偏(pian)少(shao)，氣(qi)(qi)溫(wen)(wen)偏(pian)高(gao)，對(dui)大多(duo)數病蟲(chong)越冬存(cun)活有(you)利。春季（３－５月(yue)）降(jiang)水(shui)北部(bu)和南(nan)部(bu)偏(pian)少(shao)，中部(bu)偏(pian)多(duo)，氣(qi)(qi)溫(wen)(wen)偏(pian)高(gao)，對(dui)喜旱(han)(han)(han)性的小(xiao)麥蚜蟲(chong)、小(xiao)麥紅蜘蛛(zhu)、棉花苗(miao)蚜、小(xiao)菜蛾等(deng)在南(nan)部(bu)發(fa)生有(you)利。夏季（６－８月(yue)）降(jiang)水(shui)北部(bu)偏(pian)多(duo)，中、南(nan)部(bu)偏(pian)少(shao)，氣(qi)(qi)溫(wen)(wen)偏(pian)高(gao)，局部(bu)會(hui)出現(xian)階段(duan)性旱(han)(han)(han)象。北部(bu)降(jiang)水(shui)偏(pian)多(duo)將有(you)利于草地(di)螟(ming)等(deng)遷飛性暴發(fa)害(hai)(hai)蟲(chong)以及喜高(gao)溫(wen)(wen)高(gao)濕的蔬(shu)菜病害(hai)(hai)的發(fa)生；中、南(nan)部(bu)降(jiang)雨偏(pian)少(shao)對(dui)蜘蛛(zhu)類、蚜蟲(chong)、小(xiao)菜蛾等(deng)喜旱(han)(han)(han)性蟲(chong)害(hai)(hai)的發(fa)生有(you)利。
３、生態條件 全省小麥長(chang)勢較(jiao)(jiao)好，苗情比例為４：４：２，其(qi)(qi)中一(yi)類苗較(jiao)(jiao)去年(nian)同(tong)期(qi)減少一(yi)成(cheng)，三(san)類苗增(zeng)(zeng)加一(yi)成(cheng)；小麥主栽(zai)品種(zhong)與常(chang)年(nian)相同(tong)，總體易感白(bai)粉(fen)病(bing)(bing)、紋枯病(bing)(bing)和(he)銹病(bing)(bing)，對麥蜘蛛、麥蚜等無(wu)明(ming)顯抗(kang)性(xing)。近(jin)兩年(nian)我省玉米年(nian)種(zhong)植(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)面(mian)積達歷史(shi)之最，其(qi)(qi)中播種(zhong)面(mian)積超過２０萬畝的(de)縣就有４０個，尤(you)其(qi)(qi)鮮糯玉米和(he)先(xian)玉３３５品種(zhong)大面(mian)積連(lian)片種(zhong)植(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)，生產(chan)上(shang)種(zhong)質趨于單(dan)一(yi)化(hua)，遺傳基礎脆弱，存在著(zhu)較(jiao)(jiao)高病(bing)(bing)害(hai)流(liu)行風險(xian)。許多馬鈴薯種(zhong)植(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)區習(xi)慣自留薯種(zhong)，不(bu)注重抗(kang)病(bing)(bing)品種(zhong)的(de)選(xuan)擇，薯種(zhong)抗(kang)性(xing)退化(hua)嚴重，對晚疫病(bing)(bing)、病(bing)(bing)毒病(bing)(bing)等發(fa)生有利。抗(kang)蟲棉(mian)(mian)(mian)種(zhong)植(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)面(mian)積近(jin)年(nian)一(yi)直占棉(mian)(mian)(mian)花面(mian)積８５％以上(shang)，使二、三(san)代棉(mian)(mian)(mian)鈴蟲發(fa)生受到抑(yi)制(zhi)；棉(mian)(mian)(mian)田用藥(yao)量的(de)減少，蟲害(hai)抗(kang)藥(yao)性(xing)的(de)增(zeng)(zeng)強將使棉(mian)(mian)(mian)盲蝽(chun)、粉(fen)虱、薊馬等危害(hai)加重。秸(jie)稈(gan)還田免耕技術以及機械化(hua)聯合收割的(de)大面(mian)積推廣，對地下害(hai)蟲、種(zhong)傳病(bing)(bing)蟲草(cao)害(hai)發(fa)生有利。
山西省(sheng)農作物病蟲測報站
