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　　新種加庫存(cun)迎來買方市場

　　據全國(guo)農(nong)業技術推廣(guang)服務中心公(gong)布(bu)，2004年雜交玉米(mi)制種(zhong)(zhong)面積(ji)375萬畝(mu)，產(chan)種(zhong)(zhong)量(liang)9.7億(yi)公(gong)斤，加上庫存(cun)2.8億(yi)公(gong)斤，2005年實際可供種(zhong)(zhong)量(liang)12.5億(yi)公(gong)斤，按全國(guo)播種(zhong)(zhong)玉米(mi)3.6億(yi)畝(mu)計(ji)算(suan)，需(xu)要種(zhong)(zhong)子9.2億(yi)公(gong)斤，全國(guo)至少富余種(zhong)(zhong)子3.3億(yi)公(gong)斤。

　　據筆者在玉米(mi)制(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)主產區調查估算，雜交玉米(mi)實際制(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)面(mian)積(ji)和(he)產種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)量要(yao)大(da)于(yu)此數。一(yi)是有(you)(you)些地區隱報或少報制(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)面(mian)積(ji)。某種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子站負責(ze)人告知，綜合縣市報來制(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)面(mian)積(ji)時(shi)，一(yi)般要(yao)壓縮10%～15%。二是比較(jiao)大(da)的種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子公司(si)普(pu)(pu)遍壓庫。少的有(you)(you)一(yi)兩千萬公斤，多的四(si)五千萬公斤。三是無(wu)證(zheng)制(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)現象相當普(pu)(pu)遍，有(you)(you)公司(si)也有(you)(you)個(ge)人。

　　2005年顯然又是一個艱難的買方市場。春播區營銷高峰期將(jiang)延遲至3月中下旬(xun)，夏播區將(jiang)延遲至5月中下旬(xun)，而(er)種子價格又將(jiang)隨(sui)時間(jian)而(er)變化，對于那些資金緊缺、依靠貸款過(guo)日(ri)子的種子企業來說，在資金運作和營銷策略上無(wu)疑又是一次嚴重的考驗。

　　種子價格相差懸殊

　　《種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子法》施行(xing)后，種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子經營主體多元化的(de)(de)(de)格(ge)局基(ji)本(ben)形成(cheng)。現(xian)(xian)代化種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子企業重視種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子質量，規范種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子包裝，加(jia)大宣傳力度(du)，增加(jia)了經銷成(cheng)本(ben)。擁有(you)(you)自主產權的(de)(de)(de)新(xin)(xin)品(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)，具備經營的(de)(de)(de)獨占性，一般價(jia)(jia)位比(bi)普(pu)通(tong)品(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)要(yao)高出2～3倍(bei)或更多。據(ju)筆者市場(chang)調查，不(bu)(bu)同種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子價(jia)(jia)格(ge)相差十分懸殊，每公斤(jin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子從2元到(dao)(dao)20元不(bu)(bu)等。隨(sui)著(zhu)科學(xue)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)田(tian)水平的(de)(de)(de)提高，農民購(gou)(gou)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)有(you)(you)一種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)盲目求新(xin)(xin)求優心理，國審的(de)(de)(de)、新(xin)(xin)審的(de)(de)(de)、品(pin)(pin)牌的(de)(de)(de)、高產的(de)(de)(de)、優質的(de)(de)(de)、有(you)(you)品(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)權保護的(de)(de)(de)，農民表現(xian)(xian)出強烈的(de)(de)(de)購(gou)(gou)買欲，即使是價(jia)(jia)格(ge)特別高，總是受(shou)到(dao)(dao)青睞并成(cheng)為搶手貨。大路(lu)品(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)銷路(lu)受(shou)到(dao)(dao)影響。

　　“返利”策略影響(xiang)優(you)次(ci)種銷(xiao)售(shou)

　　經(jing)過(guo)(guo)(guo)多年種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子過(guo)(guo)(guo)剩(sheng)造成的買方(fang)市場(chang)，許多大公(gong)(gong)(gong)司改變(bian)了(le)營(ying)銷策略(lve)，普遍采用一(yi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)所謂的“返利(li)(li)”措施(shi)，即(ji)大公(gong)(gong)(gong)司要(yao)留給經(jing)銷商一(yi)定的利(li)(li)潤空間(jian)。過(guo)(guo)(guo)去幾年一(yi)般每公(gong)(gong)(gong)斤返利(li)(li)在0.4～0.8元(yuan)，如今玉(yu)米種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子數量明顯過(guo)(guo)(guo)剩(sheng)，大公(gong)(gong)(gong)司不得不加(jia)大返利(li)(li)空間(jian)。據初(chu)步了(le)解，每公(gong)(gong)(gong)斤玉(yu)米種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子返利(li)(li)增加(jia)到(dao)1～2元(yuan)，個別品(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)高達2.4～3.0元(yuan)，給以繁種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)為主(zhu)的大公(gong)(gong)(gong)司增加(jia)很(hen)大壓力(li)。中間(jian)商和(he)代(dai)銷戶很(hen)樂(le)意銷售那些返利(li)(li)多的品(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)，即(ji)使這個品(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)并不十分優秀；相反，如果返利(li)(li)比較少，誰(shui)也不愿花(hua)費(fei)力(li)氣營(ying)銷，即(ji)使是優良品(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)。

　　這就形成了優種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)不一定多銷(xiao)，次種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)也可能短缺的(de)局面，迫使(shi)那(nei)些繁(fan)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)企業給代(dai)銷(xiao)商不斷(duan)地擴大(da)利(li)潤空(kong)間，但對那(nei)些制(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)產(chan)量偏低、無知識產(chan)權保護的(de)大(da)路品種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)，因為“返利(li)”空(kong)間很小，市場(chang)銷(xiao)售可能出現(xian)大(da)滑坡(po)，也將迅速減少面積。

　　假冒品種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)沖(chong)擊市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)。隨(sui)著種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)的(de)逐步放開，市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)主體增多，市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)競爭激烈，種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子商(shang)品的(de)利潤空間(jian)被擠壓。不過，由(you)于《種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子法(fa)》規定(ding)中間(jian)商(shang)或(huo)經銷(xiao)(xiao)店只能營(ying)銷(xiao)(xiao)已經分裝(zhuang)(zhuang)的(de)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子。從大公司批發來的(de)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子，包裝(zhuang)(zhuang)標(biao)準，印(yin)刷(shua)精美，還標(biao)出品種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)、品牌、商(shang)標(biao)、公司名(ming)稱、地點和電話，以及標(biao)簽或(huo)信用卡，農民也(ye)不會去購買散(san)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子而負后顧之憂。所以偽劣種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子進入市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)也(ye)沒有銷(xiao)(xiao)路。

　　業界人士把今天種子市場形勢形容為：盜竊式育種、壓寶式生產、蒙騙式營銷。種子市場很大程度上屬于無序競爭，盲目生產，供銷失衡，行政部門失去調控駕馭能力。只有在市場管理逐步規范、知識產權保護制度完善、種子企業發展壯大之后，種子市場競爭才可能從淺層次產品和價格打拼逐步實現科學育種、依法制種、公平競爭、優勝劣汰的新局面。