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2004年(nian)，全國大部分玉米制(zhi)種地區氣候(hou)基本適宜，玉米種子獲得中偏上的(de)收成(cheng)。2005年(nian)迎來了又一個(ge)貸源充足(zu)的(de)買方市場。

1、新種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)加庫存，種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)量(liang)可供(gong)兩年(nian)用。據全(quan)(quan)國(guo)農業技(ji)術推廣服務中心(xin)公(gong)告，2004年(nian)雜(za)交玉(yu)米(mi)(mi)制種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)面積(ji)375萬(wan)畝(mu)，產(chan)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)量(liang)9.7億(yi)公(gong)斤(jin)，加上(shang)庫存2.8億(yi)公(gong)斤(jin)，2005年(nian)實際(ji)可供(gong)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)量(liang)12.5億(yi)公(gong)斤(jin)，按(an)全(quan)(quan)國(guo)播(bo)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)玉(yu)米(mi)(mi)3.6億(yi)畝(mu)計算，需要(yao)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子9.2億(yi)公(gong)斤(jin)，全(quan)(quan)國(guo)至(zhi)少富余種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子3.3億(yi)公(gong)斤(jin)。據筆者在玉(yu)米(mi)(mi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)主(zhu)產(chan)區(qu)調查估算，雜(za)交玉(yu)米(mi)(mi)實際(ji)制種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)面積(ji)可能在400萬(wan)畝(mu)，產(chan)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)量(liang)11億(yi)?12億(yi)公(gong)斤(jin)。加上(shang)庫存3.5億(yi)?4億(yi)公(gong)斤(jin)，2005年(nian)可供(gong)玉(yu)米(mi)(mi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子約(yue)15億(yi)?16億(yi)公(gong)斤(jin)。2004年(nian)，玉(yu)米(mi)(mi)價格上(shang)漲，預(yu)計今年(nian)玉(yu)米(mi)(mi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)植面積(ji)可能適當擴大，即使如此(ci)，可供(gong)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)量(liang)仍比(bi)實際(ji)需種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)量(liang)要(yao)多出(chu)近1倍。

2、價格(ge)兩極分(fen)化，相(xiang)(xiang)關十(shi)(shi)(shi)分(fen)懸(xuan)殊。目前，種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)企(qi)業為了(le)適應競爭(zheng)需要，增加(jia)了(le)外包(bao)裝和(he)媒體宣(xuan)傳資金投入，從(cong)而增加(jia)了(le)經(jing)(jing)銷(xiao)(xiao)成(cheng)(cheng)本。擁有(you)自(zi)主知識產權(quan)(quan)的(de)新品(pin)(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)，具備(bei)經(jing)(jing)營的(de)獨占性(xing)，一(yi)般(ban)價位比普通品(pin)(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)要高(gao)(gao)出(chu)(chu)2?3倍(bei)或(huo)更多(duo)(duo)(duo)。隨(sui)著科學種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)田水平(ping)的(de)提(ti)高(gao)(gao)，農民(min)購種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)有(you)一(yi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)盲目求新求優心(xin)理，對通過國審(shen)的(de)、最(zui)新審(shen)定的(de)、有(you)品(pin)(pin)(pin)牌(pai)的(de)、高(gao)(gao)產的(de)、優質的(de)、有(you)品(pin)(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)權(quan)(quan)保護的(de)玉米品(pin)(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)，表(biao)現出(chu)(chu)強烈的(de)購買(mai)欲，即使(shi)(shi)價格(ge)特別高(gao)(gao)，仍然(ran)十(shi)(shi)(shi)分(fen)青睞。這不(bu)(bu)僅造(zao)成(cheng)(cheng)不(bu)(bu)同品(pin)(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)價格(ge)相(xiang)(xiang)差十(shi)(shi)(shi)分(fen)懸(xuan)殊，每公斤種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)從(cong)2元(yuan)到20元(yuan)不(bu)(bu)等，非(fei)專有(you)品(pin)(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)銷(xiao)(xiao)路(lu)受到影響(xiang)，更促(cu)使(shi)(shi)一(yi)些營銷(xiao)(xiao)商迎合農民(min)心(xin)理進行誤導宣(xuan)傳。劣種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)雖(sui)不(bu)(bu)多(duo)(duo)(duo)，假(jia)(jia)冒品(pin)(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)并不(bu)(bu)少種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)市場(chang)競爭(zheng)激烈，種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)商品(pin)(pin)(pin)步入微利(li)時代。《種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)法》的(de)頒布(bu)，偽劣雜種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)逐漸推動了(le)銷(xiao)(xiao)路(lu)，有(you)些單(dan)位和(he)個(ge)人出(chu)(chu)于利(li)益的(de)驅動，大(da)膽下水，制假(jia)(jia)販假(jia)(jia)。相(xiang)(xiang)對于擁有(you)品(pin)(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)開發權(quan)(quan)的(de)企(qi)業或(huo)個(ge)人來說，制造(zao)假(jia)(jia)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)省下了(le)昂貴的(de)費用和(he)成(cheng)(cheng)本，利(li)潤(run)空(kong)間較大(da)，這使(shi)(shi)得假(jia)(jia)冒種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)越(yue)來越(yue)多(duo)(duo)(duo)。

今年的(de)種(zhong)子市(shi)場(chang)很大程度(du)上呈現無序(xu)競爭，盲目(mu)生產(chan)，供銷失衡(heng)，行政(zheng)部門失去調控駕馭能力的(de)狀態。只有在市(shi)場(chang)管(guan)理逐步規范、知識產(chan)權保護制度(du)完善(shan)、種(zhong)子企業(ye)發展壯(zhuang)大之后，種(zhong)子市(shi)場(chang)競爭才可能從淺(qian)層次(ci)產(chan)品和價(jia)格打拼逐步出現科(ke)學(xue)育種(zhong)、依法制種(zhong)、公平競爭、優(you)勝(sheng)劣汰(tai)的(de)新局面。