一、總趨勢
根(gen)據全省各地(di)(di)(di)冬前農(nong)(nong)作物(wu)病(bing)(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)越冬基(ji)數調查，結合(he)近年(nian)病(bing)(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)態勢，并組織有關專家(jia)會(hui)商分析，預計2018年(nian)我省農(nong)(nong)作物(wu)主要病(bing)(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)呈中(zhong)等(deng)、局部偏(pian)重發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)程度近于2017年(nian)。全省農(nong)(nong)作物(wu)病(bing)(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)面積(ji)1.25億畝次(ci)左(zuo)右(you)。偏(pian)重發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)的(de)病(bing)(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)有：小麥穗蚜、局部的(de)小麥紅(hong)蜘蛛和(he)白粉病(bing)(bing)(bing)；玉(yu)米葉(xie)螨、三代玉(yu)米螟、雙(shuang)斑(ban)螢葉(xie)甲(jia)，晉中(zhong)東山(shan)(shan)、太行(xing)山(shan)(shan)等(deng)冷涼山(shan)(shan)區和(he)忻定(ding)盆地(di)(di)(di)的(de)玉(yu)米大斑(ban)病(bing)(bing)(bing)、馬鈴(ling)薯晚疫(yi)病(bing)(bing)(bing)；蘋(pin)果樹(shu)(shu)腐(fu)爛病(bing)(bing)(bing)、蘋(pin)果褐斑(ban)病(bing)(bing)(bing)、果樹(shu)(shu)葉(xie)螨、梨小食(shi)心蟲(chong)(chong)、保護地(di)(di)(di)瓜菜霜(shuang)霉病(bing)(bing)(bing)、葉(xie)霉病(bing)(bing)(bing)、白粉病(bing)(bing)(bing)，露地(di)(di)(di)蔬(shu)菜辣(la)椒疫(yi)病(bing)(bing)(bing)等(deng)。
二、主要農作物病蟲發(fa)生趨勢
1、小(xiao)麥(mai)(mai)(mai)病(bing)蟲害 總體中等(deng)、局部偏重(zhong)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)。其中小(xiao)麥(mai)(mai)(mai)紅蜘蛛中等(deng)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，部分旱(han)垣(yuan)、向(xiang)陽坡地偏重(zhong)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)400萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)；小(xiao)麥(mai)(mai)(mai)穗蚜偏重(zhong)、局部大發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)635萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)；小(xiao)麥(mai)(mai)(mai)吸漿蟲偏輕發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)50萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)；地下害蟲中等(deng)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)180萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)；白粉病(bing)中等(deng)，局部偏重(zhong)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)350萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)；紋(wen)枯病(bing)在(zai)南部高水(shui)肥(fei)麥(mai)(mai)(mai)田偏輕發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)180萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)；葉銹病(bing)中等(deng)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)120萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)；小(xiao)麥(mai)(mai)(mai)條銹病(bing)在(zai)南部麥(mai)(mai)(mai)區(qu)偏輕發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)70萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)。
2、玉(yu)(yu)米(mi)病(bing)蟲(chong)害 總(zong)體中(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)(deng)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)。其中(zhong)(zhong)一代玉(yu)(yu)米(mi)螟偏(pian)(pian)輕發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，在(zai)晉(jin)南(nan)春玉(yu)(yu)米(mi)田(tian)以(yi)及晉(jin)北(bei)(bei)、晉(jin)中(zhong)(zhong)甜糯玉(yu)(yu)米(mi)集中(zhong)(zhong)種植區(qu)中(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)(deng)至偏(pian)(pian)重(zhong)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面積(ji)250萬畝(mu)；玉(yu)(yu)米(mi)薊馬在(zai)南(nan)部(bu)、北(bei)(bei)部(bu)玉(yu)(yu)米(mi)苗期中(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)(deng)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面積(ji)250萬畝(mu)；玉(yu)(yu)米(mi)葉螨中(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)(deng)，北(bei)(bei)部(bu)局(ju)部(bu)偏(pian)(pian)重(zhong)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面積(ji)400萬畝(mu)；雙斑(ban)螢葉甲中(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)(deng)，北(bei)(bei)部(bu)偏(pian)(pian)重(zhong)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，全省(sheng)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)450萬畝(mu)；以(yi)小地(di)(di)老虎、蠐(qi)螬、金(jin)針蟲(chong)為主(zhu)的地(di)(di)下害蟲(chong)中(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)(deng)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，在(zai)各玉(yu)(yu)米(mi)種植區(qu)的沿河(he)下濕地(di)(di)偏(pian)(pian)重(zhong)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面積(ji)800萬畝(mu)；棉鈴蟲(chong)中(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)(deng)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面積(ji)160萬畝(mu)次；玉(yu)(yu)米(mi)大斑(ban)病(bing)偏(pian)(pian)重(zhong)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)區(qu)域(yu)為忻定盆地(di)(di)、大同盆地(di)(di)、晉(jin)中(zhong)(zhong)東山以(yi)及太行山等(deng)(deng)冷(leng)涼山區(qu)，全省(sheng)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)700萬畝(mu)左右；玉(yu)(yu)米(mi)絲(si)黑穗(sui)病(bing)在(zai)大同、太原(yuan)、呂梁、長治等(deng)(deng)地(di)(di)偏(pian)(pian)輕發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，局(ju)部(bu)早播(bo)重(zhong)茬低洼下濕地(di)(di)偏(pian)(pian)重(zhong)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面積(ji)150萬畝(mu)。
3、暴發(fa)性(xing)病蟲(chong)害 東亞飛蝗(huang)（夏(xia)蝗(huang)）偏輕發(fa)生(sheng)，局部(bu)(bu)有(you)出(chu)現(xian)高密度蝗(huang)點的可能(neng)，發(fa)生(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)28.5萬畝，需防治面(mian)積(ji)4.5萬畝；土(tu)蝗(huang)在北部(bu)(bu)常發(fa)區中(zhong)等發(fa)生(sheng)，發(fa)生(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)275萬畝，需防治面(mian)積(ji)77萬畝；一代草地(di)螟(ming)輕發(fa)生(sheng)；粘蟲(chong)偏輕發(fa)生(sheng)，在局部(bu)(bu)有(you)造(zao)成嚴重危害的可能(neng)，發(fa)生(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)191萬畝次(ci)。
4、馬鈴薯病(bing)蟲(chong)害 28星瓢(piao)蟲(chong)中(zhong)等(deng)(deng)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面積90萬畝；豆芫菁中(zhong)等(deng)(deng)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面積50萬畝；晚(wan)疫病(bing)中(zhong)等(deng)(deng)，局部偏重發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面積200萬畝；病(bing)毒病(bing)中(zhong)等(deng)(deng)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面積25萬畝。
5、雜糧病(bing)蟲害 粟(su)(su)葉甲(jia)在(zai)(zai)谷(gu)(gu)子主產區中等(deng)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)110萬(wan)畝(mu)；粟(su)(su)灰(hui)螟偏輕發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)80萬(wan)畝(mu)；谷(gu)(gu)子黑穗病(bing)在(zai)(zai)太(tai)原(yuan)、忻州(zhou)、長(chang)治(zhi)偏輕發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)50萬(wan)畝(mu)；谷(gu)(gu)子白(bai)發(fa)(fa)病(bing)在(zai)(zai)陽(yang)泉(quan)、晉城、呂梁、太(tai)原(yuan)、忻州(zhou)、長(chang)治(zhi)等(deng)地中等(deng)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)70萬(wan)畝(mu)；谷(gu)(gu)瘟病(bing)在(zai)(zai)太(tai)原(yuan)、長(chang)治(zhi)偏重(zhong)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)40萬(wan)畝(mu)；高(gao)粱蚜在(zai)(zai)呂梁、太(tai)原(yuan)、忻州(zhou)、長(chang)治(zhi)高(gao)粱產區偏重(zhong)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)30萬(wan)畝(mu)。
6、果(guo)(guo)(guo)樹病蟲害 蘋(pin)果(guo)(guo)(guo)樹腐爛病偏(pian)重發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面積(ji)250萬畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)；蘋(pin)果(guo)(guo)(guo)褐斑(ban)(ban)病中(zhong)等(deng)至偏(pian)重發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面積(ji)150萬畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)；斑(ban)(ban)點(dian)落葉病中(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面積(ji)180萬畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)；果(guo)(guo)(guo)樹白粉病偏(pian)輕(qing)至中(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面積(ji)150萬畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)；果(guo)(guo)(guo)樹葉螨(man)中(zhong)等(deng)至偏(pian)重發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面積(ji)300萬畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)次(ci)；金(jin)紋細蛾中(zhong)等(deng)至偏(pian)重發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面積(ji)120萬畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)次(ci)；果(guo)(guo)(guo)樹蚧殼蟲偏(pian)輕(qing)至中(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面積(ji)50萬畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)；蘋(pin)小(xiao)卷葉蛾中(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面積(ji)100萬畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)；桃小(xiao)食(shi)心蟲偏(pian)輕(qing)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面積(ji)80萬畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)；梨(li)小(xiao)食(shi)心蟲在(zai)桃樹和梨(li)樹上偏(pian)重發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面積(ji)80萬畝(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)。
7、蔬(shu)菜(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)病(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)害 保護(hu)地(di)蔬(shu)菜(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)瓜(gua)類白(bai)粉病(bing)(bing)、黃瓜(gua)霜霉病(bing)(bing)、葉(xie)霉病(bing)(bing)偏重(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)；保護(hu)地(di)蔬(shu)菜(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)番(fan)(fan)茄(qie)疫病(bing)(bing)、病(bing)(bing)毒(du)病(bing)(bing)、苗期(qi)病(bing)(bing)害、枯萎病(bing)(bing)、蔬(shu)菜(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)蚜蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)、美洲斑潛蠅、粉虱(shi)等(deng)(deng)(deng)小型害蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)中等(deng)(deng)(deng)至偏重(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)；露地(di)蔬(shu)菜(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)田(tian)小菜(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)蛾、蚜蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)、甜菜(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)夜蛾、菜(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)青蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)、煙粉虱(shi)中等(deng)(deng)(deng)，局部(bu)偏重(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)；露地(di)蔬(shu)菜(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)病(bing)(bing)毒(du)病(bing)(bing)、茄(qie)子黃萎病(bing)(bing)、番(fan)(fan)茄(qie)疫病(bing)(bing)、辣椒疫病(bing)(bing)、大白(bai)菜(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)霜霉病(bing)(bing)等(deng)(deng)(deng)中等(deng)(deng)(deng)，局部(bu)偏重(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)。蔬(shu)菜(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)病(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)面積1350萬畝次。
三、預報依據
1、冬(dong)(dong)前(qian)(qian)病(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)基(ji)數(shu)(shu) 11月20日(ri)前(qian)(qian)后(hou)，全省麥區測報站(zhan)冬(dong)(dong)前(qian)(qian)病(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)普查(cha)結果(guo)顯(xian)示，各地(di)(di)冬(dong)(dong)前(qian)(qian)麥田主要病(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)害基(ji)數(shu)(shu)高(gao)(gao)于(yu)上(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)同期。其中麥蜘蛛蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)田率(lv)(lv)(lv)25%，平(ping)(ping)均(jun)尺行長有(you)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)26頭(tou)(tou)，比(bi)上(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)高(gao)(gao)46.9%，比(bi)常年(nian)(nian)(nian)高(gao)(gao)333%，最高(gao)(gao)45頭(tou)(tou)（洪洞(dong)）。麥蚜蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)田率(lv)(lv)(lv)15%左(zuo)右，平(ping)(ping)均(jun)百莖(jing)蚜量(liang)12.5頭(tou)(tou)，比(bi)上(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)高(gao)(gao)128.5%，比(bi)常年(nian)(nian)(nian)高(gao)(gao)12.6%，洪洞(dong)、曲沃等(deng)(deng)發生較(jiao)(jiao)重田塊平(ping)(ping)均(jun)百莖(jing)蚜量(liang)高(gao)(gao)達150～187頭(tou)(tou)，遠高(gao)(gao)于(yu)去(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)當(dang)地(di)(di)同期值。小(xiao)麥吸(xi)漿蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)淘土調查(cha)，見蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)縣（市）為永(yong)濟和(he)洪洞(dong)，永(yong)濟市平(ping)(ping)均(jun)每樣(yang)方有(you)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)1.16頭(tou)(tou)，接近前(qian)(qian)兩年(nian)(nian)(nian)的1.2頭(tou)(tou)，比(bi)常年(nian)(nian)(nian)低(di)49.37%，臨汾的洪洞(dong)縣平(ping)(ping)均(jun)每樣(yang)方有(you)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)0.4頭(tou)(tou)，去(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)未(wei)見蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)。白粉病(bing)(bing)平(ping)(ping)均(jun)病(bing)(bing)田率(lv)(lv)(lv)3～5%，病(bing)(bing)葉率(lv)(lv)(lv)1.3%，較(jiao)(jiao)上(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)減(jian)少27.8%，較(jiao)(jiao)常年(nian)(nian)(nian)增加(jia)(jia)30%。葉銹病(bing)(bing)平(ping)(ping)均(jun)病(bing)(bing)葉率(lv)(lv)(lv)3.2%，較(jiao)(jiao)上(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)增加(jia)(jia)52.86%，較(jiao)(jiao)常年(nian)(nian)(nian)增加(jia)(jia)137.8%。紋枯(ku)病(bing)(bing)平(ping)(ping)均(jun)病(bing)(bing)株(zhu)率(lv)(lv)(lv)1.8%，較(jiao)(jiao)上(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)增加(jia)(jia)5.89%，較(jiao)(jiao)常年(nian)(nian)(nian)減(jian)少42.95%。條銹病(bing)(bing)冬(dong)(dong)前(qian)(qian)未(wei)查(cha)到。地(di)(di)下(xia)害蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)冬(dong)(dong)前(qian)(qian)蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)田率(lv)(lv)(lv)3～10%，麥苗被害株(zhu)率(lv)(lv)(lv)0.1～0.8%，接近去(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)，略高(gao)(gao)于(yu)歷年(nian)(nian)(nian)。萬榮、鹽湖等(deng)(deng)地(di)(di)發生明(ming)顯(xian)加(jia)(jia)重，蟲(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)田率(lv)(lv)(lv)高(gao)(gao)達20%以上(shang)，麥苗被害株(zhu)率(lv)(lv)(lv)高(gao)(gao)達3～5%。
11月下(xia)旬(xun)各地(di)剝桿(gan)(gan)調查，玉米螟全省(sheng)平(ping)均(jun)百桿(gan)(gan)含(han)(han)蟲(chong)16.1頭(tou)(tou)，較去年(nian)(nian)減(jian)(jian)少(shao)(shao)72.7%，較常年(nian)(nian)減(jian)(jian)少(shao)(shao)30.3%，存活(huo)率(lv)91.2%，最高(gao)60頭(tou)(tou)。運城鹽湖平(ping)均(jun)百桿(gan)(gan)含(han)(han)蟲(chong)28.1頭(tou)(tou)，比(bi)(bi)去年(nian)(nian)增加(jia)52.4%，比(bi)(bi)歷(li)年(nian)(nian)均(jun)值增加(jia)37.8%，存活(huo)率(lv)98.6%。晉中太谷百桿(gan)(gan)含(han)(han)蟲(chong)21.5頭(tou)(tou)，比(bi)(bi)去年(nian)(nian)減(jian)(jian)少(shao)(shao)0.5%，比(bi)(bi)歷(li)年(nian)(nian)均(jun)值增加(jia)19.4%，存活(huo)率(lv)100%；太原王(wang)郭(guo)平(ping)均(jun)百桿(gan)(gan)含(han)(han)蟲(chong)10.3頭(tou)(tou)，比(bi)(bi)去年(nian)(nian)增加(jia)28.8%，比(bi)(bi)歷(li)年(nian)(nian)均(jun)值減(jian)(jian)少(shao)(shao)6.4%，存活(huo)率(lv)83%。呂梁汾陽市平(ping)均(jun)百稈含(han)(han)蟲(chong)36頭(tou)(tou)，比(bi)(bi)去年(nian)(nian)減(jian)(jian)少(shao)(shao)93%，比(bi)(bi)歷(li)年(nian)(nian)減(jian)(jian)少(shao)(shao)95%，最高(gao)60頭(tou)(tou)，存活(huo)率(lv)100%；忻州南胡平(ping)均(jun)百桿(gan)(gan)含(han)(han)蟲(chong)41.5頭(tou)(tou)，比(bi)(bi)去年(nian)(nian)增加(jia)18.6%，存活(huo)率(lv)93%；代縣平(ping)均(jun)百桿(gan)(gan)含(han)(han)蟲(chong)4.5頭(tou)(tou)，明顯少(shao)(shao)于去年(nian)(nian)的115頭(tou)(tou)，存活(huo)率(lv)100%。
東亞飛蝗(huang)(huang)(huang)殘(can)蝗(huang)(huang)(huang)面(mian)積(ji)2.5萬(wan)畝(mu)，其(qi)中(zhong)每(mei)畝(mu)殘(can)蝗(huang)(huang)(huang)密度6～10頭的(de)面(mian)積(ji)1.9萬(wan)畝(mu);11～30頭的(de)面(mian)積(ji)0.5萬(wan)畝(mu)，均(jun)低于近(jin)五年均(jun)值。運(yun)城市挖(wa)卵(luan)調(diao)查：沿黃6縣市，共取樣(yang)點500個，有卵(luan)點為(wei)11個，有卵(luan)塊11塊，卵(luan)粒數205粒，每(mei)塊平(ping)均(jun)卵(luan)粒數18.6粒，平(ping)均(jun)每(mei)平(ping)方米(mi)有卵(luan)0.41粒，低于上年和(he)近(jin)五年均(jun)值。
土蝗(huang)殘蝗(huang)面(mian)積130萬畝，明顯高于近(jin)三年(nian)均(jun)值，平(ping)均(jun)殘蝗(huang)密度(du)1500頭/畝，比(bi)(bi)(bi)歷年(nian)低33.3%。大同(tong)、朔州、忻州、呂梁(liang)、太原等地(di)共(gong)取(qu)樣調查(cha)67.5平(ping)方米，有(you)(you)卵(luan)(luan)(luan)(luan)38塊(kuai)，平(ping)均(jun)每平(ping)方米有(you)(you)卵(luan)(luan)(luan)(luan)0.56塊(kuai)，比(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)年(nian)多50%，比(bi)(bi)(bi)歷年(nian)少26.8%；平(ping)均(jun)每平(ping)方米卵(luan)(luan)(luan)(luan)粒(li)數12.4粒(li)，比(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)年(nian)多74.7%，比(bi)(bi)(bi)歷年(nian)少14.5%。其中大同(tong)靈丘縣(xian)和大同(tong)縣(xian)共(gong)計(ji)取(qu)樣20個(ge)(ge)點，有(you)(you)卵(luan)(luan)(luan)(luan)點16個(ge)(ge)，卵(luan)(luan)(luan)(luan)塊(kuai)總數21個(ge)(ge)，每塊(kuai)平(ping)均(jun)卵(luan)(luan)(luan)(luan)粒(li)數32粒(li)，是土蝗(huang)發生的重點區(qu)域。
草地螟全(quan)省共調(diao)查200平方米，均未查到越冬繭。
大同(tong)、忻州(zhou)、朔州(zhou)、呂梁(liang)、長治、晉(jin)中、晉(jin)城等地谷(gu)子(zi)收獲后(hou)調查，粟(su)灰螟(ming)谷(gu)子(zi)平均百茬含蟲3.11頭，較去年高(gao)36%，最高(gao)15頭（孝義(yi)），比去年少(shao)4.2頭。冬后(hou)存活率91.69%。
11月(yue)底調查，蘋果(guo)(guo)樹(shu)腐爛病(bing)一(yi)般(ban)(ban)果(guo)(guo)園(yuan)平(ping)均(jun)發病(bing)株率(lv)(lv)6～10%，嚴重(zhong)的果(guo)(guo)園(yuan)為(wei)30～40%，最高(gao)45%，比(bi)去(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)減少(shao)(shao)4.5%，比(bi)常年(nian)(nian)(nian)減少(shao)(shao)25%。斑(ban)(ban)點(dian)落葉病(bing)一(yi)般(ban)(ban)園(yuan)發病(bing)葉率(lv)(lv)為(wei)20～25%，最高(gao)42%，比(bi)去(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)減少(shao)(shao)5%，比(bi)常年(nian)(nian)(nian)增加15%；蘋果(guo)(guo)褐斑(ban)(ban)病(bing)一(yi)般(ban)(ban)園(yuan)平(ping)均(jun)發病(bing)葉率(lv)(lv)為(wei)25～35%，最高(gao)60%，比(bi)去(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)高(gao)5%。桃小食心蟲平(ping)均(jun)蛀果(guo)(guo)率(lv)(lv)達(da)0.2～0.5%，最高(gao)達(da)8%，和去(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)持平(ping)。金(jin)紋細(xi)蛾平(ping)均(jun)被(bei)害葉率(lv)(lv)為(wei)5～6%，比(bi)去(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)同期低(di)1%，最高(gao)30%；百葉有(you)幼(you)蟲2～5頭(tou)，比(bi)去(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)少(shao)(shao)1頭(tou)，最高(gao)35頭(tou)。山(shan)楂葉螨(man)每100平(ping)方厘米有(you)越(yue)冬(dong)螨(man)2～3頭(tou)，最高(gao)6頭(tou)，高(gao)于去(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)。
2、氣象(xiang)條件 春季(ji)(ji)（3～5月）氣溫(wen)(wen)，大(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)部(bu)(bu)分(fen)地(di)(di)區(qu)較(jiao)常(chang)(chang)年(nian)偏(pian)高0～1℃。春季(ji)(ji)降水與常(chang)(chang)年(nian)同(tong)期相比，朔(shuo)(shuo)州市(shi)(shi)(shi)、忻(xin)(xin)(xin)州市(shi)(shi)(shi)、呂梁(liang)市(shi)(shi)(shi)東(dong)南(nan)(nan)(nan)部(bu)(bu)、晉中市(shi)(shi)(shi)南(nan)(nan)(nan)部(bu)(bu)、長治市(shi)(shi)(shi)、晉城市(shi)(shi)(shi)、臨(lin)汾(fen)市(shi)(shi)(shi)、運城市(shi)(shi)(shi)大(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)部(bu)(bu)偏(pian)多1～2成，對(dui)小(xiao)(xiao)麥、果樹、保(bao)護地(di)(di)蔬(shu)菜(cai)(cai)病害(hai)(hai)發(fa)(fa)生有(you)利(li)，對(dui)小(xiao)(xiao)麥、果樹主(zhu)產區(qu)喜(xi)(xi)旱的螨類、蚜蟲(chong)(chong)等發(fa)(fa)生不利(li)。夏(xia)季(ji)(ji)（6～8月）氣溫(wen)(wen)，大(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)部(bu)(bu)分(fen)地(di)(di)區(qu)較(jiao)常(chang)(chang)年(nian)偏(pian)低0～1℃。夏(xia)季(ji)(ji)降水，大(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)同(tong)市(shi)(shi)(shi)、朔(shuo)(shuo)州市(shi)(shi)(shi)、忻(xin)(xin)(xin)州市(shi)(shi)(shi)、太原市(shi)(shi)(shi)大(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)部(bu)(bu)、呂梁(liang)市(shi)(shi)(shi)北部(bu)(bu)、臨(lin)汾(fen)市(shi)(shi)(shi)南(nan)(nan)(nan)部(bu)(bu)、運城市(shi)(shi)(shi)偏(pian)少1～2成，有(you)利(li)于(yu)(yu)玉(yu)(yu)米紅蜘(zhi)蛛(zhu)、雙斑螢葉甲、蚜蟲(chong)(chong)、土(tu)蝗(huang)、小(xiao)(xiao)菜(cai)(cai)蛾等喜(xi)(xi)旱性蟲(chong)(chong)害(hai)(hai)和一些作物病毒病的發(fa)(fa)生；其余(yu)大(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)部(bu)(bu)分(fen)地(di)(di)區(qu)偏(pian)多1～2成，有(you)利(li)于(yu)(yu)玉(yu)(yu)米螟(ming)、粘蟲(chong)(chong)、甜菜(cai)(cai)夜蛾等喜(xi)(xi)濕(shi)性害(hai)(hai)蟲(chong)(chong)以及(ji)玉(yu)(yu)米、果樹、蔬(shu)菜(cai)(cai)等作物病害(hai)(hai)的發(fa)(fa)生。9月降水，大(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)同(tong)市(shi)(shi)(shi)北部(bu)(bu)、朔(shuo)(shuo)州市(shi)(shi)(shi)大(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)部(bu)(bu)、忻(xin)(xin)(xin)州市(shi)(shi)(shi)西部(bu)(bu)偏(pian)少1～2成，其余(yu)大(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)部(bu)(bu)分(fen)地(di)(di)區(qu)偏(pian)多1～2成。月平均氣溫(wen)(wen)，大(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)部(bu)(bu)分(fen)地(di)(di)區(qu)較(jiao)常(chang)(chang)年(nian)偏(pian)低0～1℃，對(dui)一些后期病害(hai)(hai)及(ji)南(nan)(nan)(nan)部(bu)(bu)地(di)(di)區(qu)三代玉(yu)(yu)米螟(ming)有(you)利(li)。
3、生態條件(jian) 今年冬(dong)(dong)小(xiao)麥(mai)(mai)適播(bo)(bo)期降雨頻繁(fan)，且前(qian)茬(cha)作物不(bu)能及(ji)時收獲騰(teng)茬(cha)，小(xiao)麥(mai)(mai)播(bo)(bo)期推后(hou)拉(la)長(chang)，苗情比(bi)(bi)例(li)為3:3:4，小(xiao)苗弱(ruo)苗比(bi)(bi)例(li)較(jiao)高，利于(yu)病(bing)害的(de)發(fa)生；小(xiao)麥(mai)(mai)主栽(zai)品種(zhong)(zhong)與常年相同(tong)，總體(ti)易感白粉病(bing)、紋枯(ku)病(bing)和銹(xiu)病(bing)，對(dui)(dui)麥(mai)(mai)蜘蛛、麥(mai)(mai)蚜(ya)等(deng)無明顯抗(kang)性。近年我省玉(yu)米(mi)(mi)年種(zhong)(zhong)植(zhi)面積較(jiao)大(da)，尤其是豐(feng)產性好但抗(kang)性較(jiao)差的(de)品種(zhong)(zhong)連片種(zhong)(zhong)植(zhi)，一旦遇到不(bu)利條件(jian)，存在著較(jiao)高病(bing)害流行風險。許多馬鈴薯(shu)(shu)種(zhong)(zhong)植(zhi)區(qu)脫毒種(zhong)(zhong)薯(shu)(shu)和藥劑拌種(zhong)(zhong)比(bi)(bi)例(li)增大(da)，對(dui)(dui)晚疫病(bing)、病(bing)毒病(bing)、二十(shi)八星(xing)瓢蟲等(deng)發(fa)生有較(jiao)好的(de)抑制作用。機械(xie)化聯(lian)合收割機的(de)大(da)面積推廣，對(dui)(dui)玉(yu)米(mi)(mi)螟越冬(dong)(dong)不(bu)利，但大(da)量(liang)秸稈(gan)殘留地表對(dui)(dui)地下(xia)害蟲、二點委葉(xie)蛾、玉(yu)米(mi)(mi)大(da)斑病(bing)以及(ji)土傳病(bing)蟲害發(fa)生有利。
