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 　　編(bian)者按：最近，我國農(nong)資價(jia)(jia)格(ge)出現(xian)季節性(xing)回升(sheng)勢頭。保持農(nong)資價(jia)(jia)格(ge)基本穩定(ding)，對于保護農(nong)民(min)種糧積極性(xing)具(ju)有十(shi)分(fen)重(zhong)要的作用。最近，黑(hei)龍江(jiang)省(sheng)哈爾(er)濱(bin)市物價(jia)(jia)局專題開展了農(nong)資價(jia)(jia)格(ge)調查(cha)，認真分(fen)析了當前農(nong)資價(jia)(jia)格(ge)情況及其走勢。現(xian)將他們的調查(cha)報告刊發，供參(can)考。

　　春耕(geng)生產(chan)已全(quan)面展開，農(nong)(nong)資(zi)供應(ying)漸入旺(wang)季。保持農(nong)(nong)資(zi)市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)貨豐價(jia)穩，對穩定糧(liang)食種(zhong)植(zhi)面積、保護農(nong)(nong)民種(zhong)糧(liang)積極性具有積極作用(yong)，也(ye)是實現今年(nian)農(nong)(nong)業(ye)增(zeng)產(chan)、農(nong)(nong)民持續增(zeng)收(shou)的(de)(de)重要前提。為此，我們對五常市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)、尚志市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)、呼蘭區等地(di)的(de)(de)化肥(fei)、農(nong)(nong)藥、種(zhong)子等農(nong)(nong)資(zi)價(jia)格和市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)運行情況(kuang)進(jin)行了走訪調查，并(bing)下(xia)發《農(nong)(nong)資(zi)價(jia)格調查表》對全(quan)市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)農(nong)(nong)資(zi)市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)進(jin)行全(quan)面了解。總(zong)體看，全(quan)市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)農(nong)(nong)資(zi)經營日趨活(huo)躍，供應(ying)充裕(yu)，價(jia)格穩中(zhong)有升。

　　一、農資(zi)價(jia)格(ge)與市場運行情況(kuang)

　　從(cong)上年10月(yue)至今年3月(yue)初，我市(shi)農資(zi)市(shi)場(chang)進(jin)入滯銷(xiao)狀(zhuang)態，經銷(xiao)單位關門歇業，農民(min)貓冬待(dai)耕，農資(zi)價格(ge)停(ting)留在上年10月(yue)前價格(ge)。進(jin)入三(san)月(yue)末(mo)四月(yue)初，農資(zi)市(shi)場(chang)漸熱，價格(ge)蘇醒。

　　（一）化肥貨(huo)源充足，價(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)漲(zhang)跌互現(xian)。據調(diao)查(cha)，全市(shi)春(chun)耕期(qi)(qi)間(jian)化肥儲備量占需求(qiu)量的60-80%，基(ji)(ji)本(ben)滿足春(chun)耕生產(chan)需要。今年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)4月(yue)初，尿(niao)素(su)(su)（大慶）平(ping)均(jun)價(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)1850元(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)、復(fu)合肥（國(guo)產(chan)）平(ping)均(jun)價(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)2200元(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，與(yu)(yu)上(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)相(xiang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)分(fen)別上(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)2.6%、7%；磷(lin)酸二(er)銨(an)、氯(lv)化鉀（國(guo)產(chan)）價(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)分(fen)別為2700元(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)、1900元(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，與(yu)(yu)上(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)相(xiang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)分(fen)別下(xia)降(jiang)3.5%、1%。五常市(shi)尿(niao)素(su)(su)價(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)1800元(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)、復(fu)合肥價(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)2000元(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，與(yu)(yu)上(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)持平(ping)；磷(lin)酸二(er)銨(an)價(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)2600元(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，比(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)下(xia)降(jiang)1.8%。尚志市(shi)尿(niao)素(su)(su)價(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)1850元(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)、復(fu)合肥價(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)2200元(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，比(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)分(fen)別上(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)2.78%、6.8%；磷(lin)酸二(er)銨(an)價(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)2500元(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，比(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)下(xia)降(jiang)7.4%。阿城區尿(niao)素(su)(su)（大慶）價(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)1800元(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)、復(fu)合肥（天津）價(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)2320元(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，比(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)分(fen)別上(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)2.8%、0.9%；進口尿(niao)素(su)(su)價(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)：木蘭縣(xian)、方正縣(xian)美(mei)國(guo)磷(lin)酸二(er)銨(an)3000元(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，阿城區、南(nan)崗區2900元(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，平(ping)房區2940元(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，香坊區2960元(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)。與(yu)(yu)上(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)相(xiang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)，基(ji)(ji)本(ben)持平(ping)，波動不大。

　　（二(er)）農(nong)藥市場貨(huo)足價(jia)(jia)穩(wen)。農(nong)藥需(xu)求滯后，價(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)相對穩(wen)定(ding)，常規(gui)品種價(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)基本(ben)與上(shang)年(nian)持平，部分產(chan)品價(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)有所上(shang)升。呼蘭(lan)區丁(ding)(ding)(ding)(ding)草(cao)(cao)(cao)銨(an)(an)(an)(an)、乙(yi)草(cao)(cao)(cao)銨(an)(an)(an)(an)、敵(di)(di)敵(di)(di)畏(wei)(wei)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)分別為15.0元(yuan)/瓶(ping)500ML、10.0元(yuan)/瓶(ping)500ML、17.5元(yuan)/公斤(jin)；香坊區丁(ding)(ding)(ding)(ding)草(cao)(cao)(cao)銨(an)(an)(an)(an)、乙(yi)草(cao)(cao)(cao)銨(an)(an)(an)(an)、敵(di)(di)敵(di)(di)畏(wei)(wei)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)分別為13.0元(yuan)/瓶(ping)500ML、13.5元(yuan)/瓶(ping)500ML、17.0元(yuan)/公斤(jin)；木蘭(lan)縣丁(ding)(ding)(ding)(ding)草(cao)(cao)(cao)銨(an)(an)(an)(an)、乙(yi)草(cao)(cao)(cao)銨(an)(an)(an)(an)、敵(di)(di)敵(di)(di)畏(wei)(wei)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)分別為12.0元(yuan)/瓶(ping)500ML、15.0元(yuan)/瓶(ping)500ML，敵(di)(di)敵(di)(di)畏(wei)(wei)每公斤(jin)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)20.0元(yuan)，比上(shang)年(nian)同期(qi)上(shang)漲5.26%。上(shang)述(shu)三地除(chu)木蘭(lan)縣敵(di)(di)敵(di)(di)畏(wei)(wei)略外上(shang)漲外，丁(ding)(ding)(ding)(ding)草(cao)(cao)(cao)銨(an)(an)(an)(an)、乙(yi)草(cao)(cao)(cao)銨(an)(an)(an)(an)與上(shang)年(nian)同期(qi)持平。其它地區農(nong)藥價(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)也比較穩(wen)定(ding)。隨(sui)著春耕結束，夏播(bo)開始，農(nong)藥價(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)會有所波動。

　　（三）農膜(mo)需求旺(wang)盛(sheng)，價(jia)(jia)格上(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)。呼蘭(lan)區、雙城市(shi)(shi)棚(peng)膜(mo)、地(di)膜(mo)每(mei)公斤(jin)價(jia)(jia)格分別(bie)(bie)為(wei)14.8元、14.5元，比上(shang)(shang)(shang)年(nian)同期分別(bie)(bie)上(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)2.06%、11.5%；五常市(shi)(shi)是水稻之(zhi)鄉，地(di)膜(mo)、棚(peng)膜(mo)需求量相對(dui)較小(xiao)，價(jia)(jia)格平穩(wen)；方正縣棚(peng)膜(mo)、地(di)膜(mo)每(mei)公斤(jin)價(jia)(jia)格分別(bie)(bie)為(wei)15元、14元，比上(shang)(shang)(shang)年(nian)同期分別(bie)(bie)上(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)7.1%、7.69%。

　　（四）種(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)儲備充足，價格平穩。阿城區玉(yu)米(mi)(mi)種(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)農(nong)(nong)(nong)大302號8.60元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)、大豆(dou)種(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)綏農(nong)(nong)(nong)14-3號3.80元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)、水(shui)稻種(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)松粳9號3.80元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)，比上年(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期分(fen)別下降(jiang)4.44%和上漲5.56%、5.56%。尚志市玉(yu)米(mi)(mi)種(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)龍(long)源(yuan)101號7.00元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)、綏玉(yu)7號15.00元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)、龍(long)單13（內蒙古）7.00元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)，與上年(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期相(xiang)比波(bo)動不大，大豆(dou)種(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)黑農(nong)(nong)(nong)38號4.00元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)，與上年(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期持平；水(shui)稻種(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)墾稻12號3.60元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)，與上年(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期相(xiang)比上漲5.88%。五(wu)常市水(shui)稻種(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)松粳9號3.40元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)、松粳6號3.00元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)、五(wu)優稻3號4.00元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)，玉(yu)米(mi)(mi)種(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)金玉(yu)1號9.00元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)、通科1號10.40元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)，大豆(dou)種(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)黑農(nong)(nong)(nong)37號3.40元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)、黑農(nong)(nong)(nong)48號4.00元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)，價格與上年(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期基本持平。

　　（五(wu)）農用柴(chai)(chai)油(you)價格(ge)穩定。0#、-10#、-20#、0#清(qing)(qing)潔(jie)、-10#清(qing)(qing)潔(jie)、-20#清(qing)(qing)潔(jie)柴(chai)(chai)油(you)價格(ge)分別(bie)為(wei)4.59元(yuan)(yuan)/升(sheng)、4.84元(yuan)(yuan)/升(sheng)、5.07元(yuan)(yuan)/升(sheng)、4.69元(yuan)(yuan)/升(sheng)、4.94元(yuan)(yuan)/升(sheng)、5.17元(yuan)(yuan)/升(sheng)，價格(ge)與上年同(tong)期持平。從(cong)4月(yue)3日起(qi)，中石油(you)黑龍江銷售公司(si)哈爾(er)濱分公司(si)根據氣溫的變(bian)化對成品油(you)單價做(zuo)出(chu)季節性調(diao)整。0#、-10#、-20#、0#清(qing)(qing)潔(jie)、-10#清(qing)(qing)潔(jie)、-20#清(qing)(qing)潔(jie)柴(chai)(chai)油(you)每升(sheng)分別(bie)下(xia)調(diao)至(zhi)4.55元(yuan)(yuan)、4.80元(yuan)(yuan)、5.02元(yuan)(yuan)、4.65元(yuan)(yuan)、4.90元(yuan)(yuan)、5.12元(yuan)(yuan)。對農民(min)來(lai)說是個(ge)利好消費，會減(jian)少油(you)耗支出(chu)。

　　（六）農(nong)資(zi)(zi)資(zi)(zi)源充(chong)裕(yu)。全市春耕(geng)期(qi)間農(nong)資(zi)(zi)市場運行良好，品(pin)種(zhong)豐富(fu)、貨源充(chong)足，基(ji)(ji)本(ben)滿足市場需(xu)求(qiu)。全市各(ge)地農(nong)資(zi)(zi)儲(chu)備(bei)基(ji)(ji)本(ben)達到總(zong)需(xu)求(qiu)量(liang)(liang)(liang)的(de)(de)60%以上(shang)，已經銷售(shou)到戶(hu)的(de)(de)達30%以上(shang)。目前，木蘭縣種(zhong)子儲(chu)備(bei)量(liang)(liang)(liang)達3890噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，已超出總(zong)需(xu)求(qiu)量(liang)(liang)(liang)；化肥(fei)儲(chu)備(bei)量(liang)(liang)(liang)達22000噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，達到總(zong)需(xu)求(qiu)量(liang)(liang)(liang)的(de)(de)70%；農(nong)膜達200噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，占(zhan)總(zong)需(xu)求(qiu)量(liang)(liang)(liang)的(de)(de)71.4%。五常市化肥(fei)儲(chu)備(bei)量(liang)(liang)(liang)53500噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)；尚(shang)志市儲(chu)備(bei)量(liang)(liang)(liang)8220噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)；阿(a)城區化肥(fei)儲(chu)備(bei)量(liang)(liang)(liang)12500噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)；方正縣化肥(fei)儲(chu)備(bei)量(liang)(liang)(liang)17800噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，農(nong)膜110噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，農(nong)藥120噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，種(zhong)子2430噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)。各(ge)種(zhong)農(nong)資(zi)(zi)儲(chu)存量(liang)(liang)(liang)基(ji)(ji)本(ben)達到需(xu)求(qiu)量(liang)(liang)(liang)的(de)(de)60%以上(shang)。

　　二(er)、農資市場與價格特點

　　（一）需求旺。受惠民政策影響，農(nong)民種糧積極性(xing)高漲，推動了農(nong)民購買農(nong)資(zi)的熱(re)情。加上春季是農(nong)民購買農(nong)資(zi)的旺銷期，使(shi)農(nong)資(zi)需求更(geng)加旺盛(sheng)。

　　（二）價格穩(wen)。今(jin)年化(hua)肥等(deng)農資供應充足(zu)，價格雖(sui)有漲(zhang)(zhang)有跌，但漲(zhang)(zhang)幅(fu)較小，總體平穩(wen)。但自2005年價格大幅(fu)度上漲(zhang)(zhang)后，價格仍(reng)在高位(wei)運行(xing)，吞噬農民收(shou)入，增加農民生產(chan)投(tou)入。

　　（三）品種全。今年農(nong)資市場品種豐(feng)(feng)富，一(yi)個品種，多個牌子，產地(di)較(jiao)多，國內的、國外的，天津的、河北的、東三省的。品種豐(feng)(feng)富，競爭性強，有利于穩定農(nong)資價格。

　　（四）儲(chu)量(liang)大。全市(shi)各地(di)能夠積極(ji)響應(ying)國(guo)家、省和(he)市(shi)關于穩(wen)定農資(zi)價格的相(xiang)關政策(ce)和(he)要求(qiu)，春耕期間加大儲(chu)備(bei)量(liang)，保(bao)證市(shi)場供應(ying)，各地(di)儲(chu)備(bei)量(liang)基本達到(dao)60%左右。

　　（五）網(wang)點(dian)多(duo)。全市(shi)各地農資銷售網(wang)點(dian)眾多(duo)，極(ji)大滿(man)足了(le)農民(min)需求。五常市(shi)有370多(duo)家(jia)，阿城區(qu)80多(duo)家(jia)，尚志市(shi)350多(duo)家(jia)，通河縣(xian)130家(jia)，木蘭(lan)縣(xian)近100家(jia)。

　　（六）渠道廣(guang)。隨著農(nong)資市場準(zhun)入條件不斷放開，市場競爭激(ji)烈。出(chu)現廠家(jia)駐點直(zhi)銷(xiao)、經銷(xiao)商到村屯(tun)銷(xiao)售(shou)、電話預定等銷(xiao)售(shou)辦法，積極爭奪(duo)農(nong)資市場，銷(xiao)售(shou)渠道進(jin)一步(bu)拓寬。

　　三、存在的問題

　　在調查中我們也(ye)發現了一(yi)些問題。一(yi)是(shi)農(nong)資(zi)(zi)銷(xiao)(xiao)售(shou)網點分布不(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)盡(jin)合理(li)。主要集中在縣(xian)城、鄉鎮兩級，村一(yi)級幾(ji)乎(hu)沒有銷(xiao)(xiao)售(shou)網點，農(nong)民(min)(min)(min)購(gou)買(mai)不(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)方便；二是(shi)農(nong)戶(hu)購(gou)買(mai)種(zhong)子缺(que)乏科(ke)學(xue)指(zhi)導，存在盲目(mu)性，只聽信銷(xiao)(xiao)售(shou)商的(de)(de)介(jie)紹，對(dui)新(xin)品種(zhong)的(de)(de)種(zhong)植方式及產量(liang)缺(que)乏足(zu)夠了解；三是(shi)個(ge)(ge)別(bie)農(nong)戶(hu)存在買(mai)漲不(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)買(mai)落的(de)(de)心理(li)，抱著還會再降的(de)(de)僥(jiao)幸心理(li)；四是(shi)個(ge)(ge)別(bie)農(nong)戶(hu)貸款資(zi)(zi)金(jin)沒有到位(wei)，手里沒有錢無法購(gou)買(mai)所需農(nong)資(zi)(zi)；五(wu)是(shi)農(nong)民(min)(min)(min)種(zhong)地施(shi)肥一(yi)直慣(guan)用老方法，科(ke)學(xue)施(shi)肥意識不(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)強，造(zao)成不(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)必(bi)要的(de)(de)浪(lang)費或施(shi)肥不(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)足(zu)。六是(shi)化(hua)肥冬儲(chu)宣(xuan)傳不(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)夠，部(bu)分農(nong)民(min)(min)(min)冬儲(chu)意識不(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)強，化(hua)肥銷(xiao)(xiao)售(shou)旺(wang)季市場不(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)確定因(yin)素(su)諸多，影響農(nong)民(min)(min)(min)春耕生產。

　　四、農(nong)資后市價(jia)格走勢分析(xi)

　　受季節性因(yin)素(su)(su)影響，春耕期(qi)間化(hua)肥等(deng)農資價格(ge)出現不(bu)同(tong)程度上(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)，部分(fen)農民開始持(chi)幣觀望，期(qi)盼價格(ge)下(xia)降(jiang)。但(dan)從各方面因(yin)素(su)(su)綜合分(fen)析，農資市場后市價格(ge)上(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)與拉動價格(ge)下(xia)降(jiang)的因(yin)素(su)(su)并存，但(dan)推動價格(ge)上(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)的因(yin)素(su)(su)大(da)于下(xia)降(jiang)的因(yin)素(su)(su)，上(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)壓力(li)仍(reng)然較(jiao)大(da)，預計化(hua)肥等(deng)農資價格(ge)將(jiang)呈現穩中略漲(zhang)(zhang)的走勢。

　　（一(yi)(yi)）推動化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)肥(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)等(deng)農(nong)資(zi)價(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)上(shang)漲(zhang)的(de)因素。一(yi)(yi)是(shi)(shi)原材料成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)增加。2007年(nian)煤(mei)、電、氣等(deng)能源將(jiang)(jiang)面臨著漲(zhang)價(jia)的(de)較大(da)(da)(da)壓(ya)力。二是(shi)(shi)運(yun)輸(shu)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)增加。運(yun)輸(shu)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)增加主要(yao)來(lai)自兩方面：一(yi)(yi)方面，從(cong)2006年(nian)4月1日起(qi)，鐵路貨(huo)物平均(jun)運(yun)價(jia)由(you)8. 61分/噸公里(li)調(diao)至9.05分/噸公里(li)，提升幅度(du)(du)5.1%。另一(yi)(yi)方面，國(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)加大(da)(da)(da)了對公路運(yun)輸(shu)超(chao)載問題(ti)的(de)治理(li)力度(du)(du)，導致費用上(shang)升。三是(shi)(shi)國(guo)(guo)際(ji)市場(chang)(chang)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)肥(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)價(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)上(shang)漲(zhang)。化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)肥(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)行(xing)業屬(shu)于(yu)(yu)高耗能行(xing)業，一(yi)(yi)些(xie)國(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)繼續(xu)對化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)肥(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)出口采取限制，在一(yi)(yi)定程度(du)(du)上(shang)影(ying)響了國(guo)(guo)際(ji)市場(chang)(chang)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)肥(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)供應。國(guo)(guo)際(ji)海運(yun)費不斷上(shang)升，也將(jiang)(jiang)加大(da)(da)(da)國(guo)(guo)際(ji)市場(chang)(chang)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)肥(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)價(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)上(shang)漲(zhang)壓(ya)力。我國(guo)(guo)是(shi)(shi)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)肥(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)消費大(da)(da)(da)國(guo)(guo)，國(guo)(guo)際(ji)市場(chang)(chang)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)肥(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)價(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)的(de)趨高對國(guo)(guo)內市場(chang)(chang)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)肥(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)價(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)上(shang)漲(zhang)將(jiang)(jiang)形成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)支撐。四是(shi)(shi)農(nong)民用肥(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)需求旺(wang)盛。由(you)于(yu)(yu)近三年(nian)糧食連(lian)獲(huo)豐(feng)收，糧食價(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)穩中有升，農(nong)民收入(ru)(ru)明顯增加，種糧積(ji)極(ji)性較高，農(nong)民購(gou)買(mai)農(nong)資(zi)比較積(ji)極(ji)，愿(yuan)意(yi)加大(da)(da)(da)投入(ru)(ru)再(zai)獲(huo)豐(feng)收。從(cong)我們的(de)調(diao)查來(lai)看，對當前的(de)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)肥(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)價(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)上(shang)漲(zhang)，盡管不愿(yuan)意(yi)接受，但并未影(ying)響到購(gou)買(mai)熱情。農(nong)民希望(wang)國(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)加大(da)(da)(da)對農(nong)資(zi)價(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)的(de)監管力度(du)(du)，避免(mian)惠(hui)農(nong)政(zheng)策帶(dai)來(lai)的(de)好處被農(nong)資(zi)價(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)上(shang)漲(zhang)所吞噬。

　　（二）抑(yi)制(zhi)化(hua)肥(fei)(fei)等(deng)農(nong)(nong)資(zi)價格(ge)上(shang)漲的(de)因素(su)(su)(su)。一是(shi)化(hua)肥(fei)(fei)等(deng)農(nong)(nong)資(zi)產量(liang)繼續保持較快增長。資(zi)料顯示，目(mu)前國內(nei)尿素(su)(su)(su)產量(liang)增長較快，再加(jia)上(shang)新建(jian)擴建(jian)項(xiang)目(mu)較多，2006年新增尿素(su)(su)(su)產能(neng)400萬(wan)噸，2007年在建(jian)項(xiang)目(mu)生產能(neng)力達(da)490萬(wan)噸，2008-2010年規(gui)劃建(jian)設項(xiang)目(mu)新增尿素(su)(su)(su)產能(neng)1110萬(wan)噸，市(shi)場供(gong)應(ying)會較為充足；二是(shi)隨著(zhu)國家一系(xi)列“惠農(nong)(nong)”政策的(de)實施(shi)，農(nong)(nong)民增收(shou)將作為建(jian)設社會主(zhu)義新農(nong)(nong)村的(de)首要(yao)，所(suo)以農(nong)(nong)資(zi)價格(ge)將會受到抑(yi)制(zhi)；三是(shi)國家出(chu)臺限制(zhi)化(hua)肥(fei)(fei)出(chu)口的(de)政策，化(hua)肥(fei)(fei)進(jin)出(chu)口將進(jin)多出(chu)少(shao)，導致國內(nei)供(gong)應(ying)增加(jia)；四(si)是(shi)隨著(zhu)科學施(shi)肥(fei)(fei)技術逐步推(tui)廣，每(mei)畝用肥(fei)(fei)量(liang)有所(suo)減少(shao)。

　　綜(zong)上所述(shu)，2007年化肥(fei)市(shi)場(chang)(chang)在國家政策保持相對穩定的前提下，市(shi)場(chang)(chang)供應充(chong)足，市(shi)場(chang)(chang)競爭(zheng)進一步(bu)加劇，價格將穩中略(lve)有增長(chang)，但(dan)幅度(du)不會太大。

　　五、建議

　　（一）打(da)擊各類虛假(jia)農(nong)(nong)資(zi)促(cu)(cu)銷(xiao)行為(wei)(wei)，保證農(nong)(nong)業(ye)生產(chan)安(an)全。在春耕期間，應以質檢、工商(shang)、物價、農(nong)(nong)委(wei)等(deng)部門組成聯合(he)檢查組，深入(ru)農(nong)(nong)戶、銷(xiao)售企業(ye)進行檢查，清理整頓(dun)農(nong)(nong)資(zi)經營(ying)(ying)主體，對不(bu)(bu)具備經營(ying)(ying)條件的，責令整改或取消經營(ying)(ying)資(zi)格。嚴厲打(da)擊亂(luan)漲價、欺騙性(xing)有獎銷(xiao)售等(deng)欺詐行為(wei)(wei)。查處各類虛假(jia)宣傳農(nong)(nong)資(zi)產(chan)品(pin)(pin)等(deng)不(bu)(bu)正當促(cu)(cu)銷(xiao)活動(dong)(dong)，打(da)擊假(jia)借(jie)促(cu)(cu)銷(xiao)活動(dong)(dong)推銷(xiao)不(bu)(bu)合(he)格的農(nong)(nong)資(zi)商(shang)品(pin)(pin)等(deng)不(bu)(bu)法行為(wei)(wei)，保證農(nong)(nong)民(min)的生產(chan)利益不(bu)(bu)受侵害。

　　（二(er)）加(jia)強(qiang)農(nong)(nong)資(zi)價(jia)格監(jian)測(ce)(ce)(ce)，實(shi)時掌控農(nong)(nong)資(zi)價(jia)格。加(jia)強(qiang)化(hua)肥(fei)(fei)等農(nong)(nong)資(zi)價(jia)格監(jian)測(ce)(ce)(ce)工作，對于提高政(zheng)(zheng)府對化(hua)肥(fei)(fei)市場調控和(he)(he)價(jia)格監(jian)管的科學性(xing)、有(you)效(xiao)性(xing)和(he)(he)預見性(xing)十分必要(yao)。價(jia)格監(jian)測(ce)(ce)(ce)部門要(yao)在春耕、夏播期間(jian)加(jia)強(qiang)對國內(nei)化(hua)肥(fei)(fei)生產、銷(xiao)售(shou)、運(yun)輸和(he)(he)庫存變動情況(kuang)進(jin)行監(jian)測(ce)(ce)(ce)，及時掌握化(hua)肥(fei)(fei)市場運(yun)行動態和(he)(he)價(jia)格變化(hua)趨(qu)勢，為政(zheng)(zheng)府決策提供切(qie)實(shi)可行的建議(yi)，確保化(hua)肥(fei)(fei)市場平(ping)穩有(you)效(xiao)運(yun)行。

　　（三）嚴(yan)格(ge)執(zhi)行(xing)規定，保(bao)持價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)平穩(wen)。嚴(yan)格(ge)執(zhi)行(xing)省(sheng)(sheng)物價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)局《關于(yu)2006年進(jin)(jin)(jin)一(yi)步加強農(nong)(nong)資價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)管(guan)理的通知》。省(sheng)(sheng)內化(hua)肥(fei)、農(nong)(nong)藥(yao)、農(nong)(nong)膜(mo)等銷(xiao)售(shou)企業(ye)(ye)(ye)必(bi)須嚴(yan)格(ge)按(an)(an)照政府指導價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)執(zhi)行(xing)。差價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)率(lv)按(an)(an)實(shi)際進(jin)(jin)(jin)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)不得(de)高于(yu)3%，零售(shou)企業(ye)(ye)(ye)差價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)率(lv)按(an)(an)實(shi)際進(jin)(jin)(jin)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)計算不得(de)高于(yu)1%；對未實(shi)行(xing)限價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)措施的碳氨肥(fei)、磷肥(fei)、復合肥(fei)等化(hua)肥(fei)品種以(yi)及(ji)農(nong)(nong)藥(yao)、農(nong)(nong)用膜(mo)的價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)必(bi)須采(cai)取提(ti)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)申(shen)報制度；在(zai)省(sheng)(sheng)內經(jing)銷(xiao)應以(yi)實(shi)際出廠(chang)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)為(wei)基礎計算，不得(de)進(jin)(jin)(jin)行(xing)三次(ci)批發(fa)，同城(cheng)不得(de)二次(ci)批發(fa)（以(yi)縣為(wei)單(dan)位）。從(cong)省(sheng)(sheng)外化(hua)肥(fei)生(sheng)產企業(ye)(ye)(ye)以(yi)出廠(chang)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)購(gou)入的，在(zai)省(sheng)(sheng)內經(jing)銷(xiao)應以(yi)實(shi)際出廠(chang)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)為(wei)基礎計算，不得(de)進(jin)(jin)(jin)行(xing)三次(ci)批發(fa)，同城(cheng)不得(de)進(jin)(jin)(jin)行(xing)二次(ci)批發(fa)。從(cong)省(sheng)(sheng)外經(jing)銷(xiao)單(dan)位購(gou)入的化(hua)肥(fei)，在(zai)省(sheng)(sheng)內銷(xiao)售(shou)只(zhi)能(neng)進(jin)(jin)(jin)行(xing)一(yi)次(ci)批發(fa)。批零兼(jian)營企業(ye)(ye)(ye)直接零售(shou)只(zhi)能(neng)加一(yi)道(dao)環節(jie)，最高為(wei)3%。

　　（四）整(zheng)合農資(zi)市場資(zi)源(yuan)，合理布局銷(xiao)售網絡。應整(zheng)合農資(zi)銷(xiao)售市場，借鑒(jian)超市連(lian)(lian)鎖店形式，以便民(min)為原則，從縣城(cheng)到鄉村，合理分布銷(xiao)售網點，重點加強鄉村級銷(xiao)售網點建設(she)，實行(xing)統一(yi)采購、統一(yi)配送、統一(yi)管理、統一(yi)服務規(gui)范(fan)，用連(lian)(lian)鎖經營(ying)暢通農資(zi)流通渠道，方(fang)便農民(min)放(fang)心(xin)購買農資(zi)。

　　（五）建立化肥淡儲旺銷調節機制和信息發布機制。化肥銷售有著明顯的季節性，建議地方政府建立健全“淡儲旺銷”的供需調節機制，平抑市場價格。建立農資的生產、運輸、成本、銷售等環節的信息發布機制，讓農民及時掌握農資市場運行狀況和價格變化動態，買到貨真價廉的、稱心如意的產品。