2008年全国农作物重大病虫害发生趋势预测_植保资讯

全國(guo)(guo)農業(ye)技術推廣服務中(zhong)心組織全國(guo)(guo)植(zhi)保科研、教學和(he)推廣單位的100多名(ming)專家，根據2007年(nian)病蟲(chong)害發生(sheng)實況、越冬基數調查結果(guo)，以及作(zuo)物種植(zhi)制度(du)、品(pin)種布局(ju)、氣象預(yu)測資(zi)料等(deng)(deng)因素綜合會商分析(xi)，預(yu)計2008年(nian)全國(guo)(guo)農作(zuo)物重大病蟲(chong)總體為偏(pian)重發生(sheng)年(nian)份(fen)。小(xiao)麥白粉病、條銹(xiu)病、小(xiao)麥蚜蟲(chong)、稻飛虱(shi)、稻縱卷葉螟(ming)(ming)、水稻螟(ming)(ming)蟲(chong)、玉(yu)米螟(ming)(ming)等(deng)(deng)重大病蟲(chong)害仍將呈(cheng)嚴重或偏(pian)重發生(sheng)態勢(shi)，小(xiao)麥赤(chi)霉病、稻瘟病有潛(qian)在流行(xing)的威(wei)脅(xie)，小(xiao)麥吸漿蟲(chong)、水稻條紋葉枯(ku)病、粘蟲(chong)、棉鈴蟲(chong)等(deng)(deng)在部分地區(qu)呈(cheng)加重發生(sheng)趨勢(shi)，蝗蟲(chong)、草地螟(ming)(ming)等(deng)(deng)中(zhong)等(deng)(deng)程度(du)發生(sheng)。預(yu)計全年(nian)主要病蟲(chong)害發生(sheng)面積60-65億畝次。

一、小麥病蟲害

全國(guo)小麥病(bing)蟲害(hai)總(zong)體偏重發生(sheng)，發生(sheng)面積(ji)9.5億畝，其中蟲害(hai)5.5億畝，病(bing)害(hai)4.0億畝。影(ying)響(xiang)小麥生(sheng)產的主(zhu)要病(bing)害(hai)有(you)白(bai)粉病(bing)、條(tiao)銹病(bing)、紋枯病(bing)、赤(chi)霉病(bing),蟲害(hai)主(zhu)要有(you)麥蚜(ya)、吸漿蟲和麥蜘蛛。

1.小麥(mai)(mai)病(bing)(bing)(bing)害　小麥(mai)(mai)白粉病(bing)(bing)(bing)在四川、貴(gui)(gui)州、云(yun)南(nan)等(deng)西(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)南(nan)大部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)、湖(hu)北(bei)(bei)北(bei)(bei)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)、河南(nan)中北(bei)(bei)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)、江(jiang)(jiang)蘇(su)和安(an)徽的(de)淮北(bei)(bei)地區(qu)(qu)(qu)、陜(shan)西(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)關(guan)中灌區(qu)(qu)(qu)偏重(zhong)發(fa)生(sheng)，長江(jiang)(jiang)流域、黃淮、西(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)北(bei)(bei)及(ji)華北(bei)(bei)麥(mai)(mai)區(qu)(qu)(qu)中等(deng)發(fa)生(sheng)，發(fa)生(sheng)面積(ji)1.1億畝。小麥(mai)(mai)條銹(xiu)病(bing)(bing)(bing)在四川西(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)北(bei)(bei)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)和中部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)及(ji)攀西(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)地區(qu)(qu)(qu)、云(yun)南(nan)中部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)、貴(gui)(gui)州西(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)、陜(shan)西(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)南(nan)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)、甘(gan)(gan)肅(su)隴南(nan)和天水及(ji)中部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)晚熟麥(mai)(mai)區(qu)(qu)(qu)呈(cheng)偏重(zhong)流行(xing)態勢，重(zhong)慶、湖(hu)北(bei)(bei)北(bei)(bei)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)和西(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)、河南(nan)南(nan)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)、陜(shan)西(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)關(guan)中西(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)、甘(gan)(gan)肅(su)隴東(dong)、寧夏南(nan)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)、青海東(dong)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)、新疆北(bei)(bei)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)等(deng)麥(mai)(mai)區(qu)(qu)(qu)有中度(du)(du)流行(xing)的(de)威脅，全(quan)國發(fa)生(sheng)面積(ji)為4000萬畝。小麥(mai)(mai)紋(wen)枯病(bing)(bing)(bing)在河北(bei)(bei)、山東(dong)、河南(nan)、安(an)徽、湖(hu)北(bei)(bei)、江(jiang)(jiang)蘇(su)麥(mai)(mai)區(qu)(qu)(qu)偏重(zhong)發(fa)生(sheng)，其它麥(mai)(mai)區(qu)(qu)(qu)中等(deng)或偏輕發(fa)生(sheng)，發(fa)生(sheng)面積(ji)達1.2億畝。小麥(mai)(mai)赤霉病(bing)(bing)(bing)總體重(zhong)于2007年(nian)，西(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)南(nan)大部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)偏重(zhong)流行(xing)，江(jiang)(jiang)淮麥(mai)(mai)區(qu)(qu)(qu)有中度(du)(du)流行(xing)的(de)可(ke)能。小麥(mai)(mai)全(quan)蝕病(bing)(bing)(bing)、胞囊線蟲病(bing)(bing)(bing)呈(cheng)繼續上升趨勢，在部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)分主產麥(mai)(mai)區(qu)(qu)(qu)會有一定危害。

2.小(xiao)麥(mai)(mai)蟲害　小(xiao)麥(mai)(mai)穗期蚜蟲在黃淮海(hai)及(ji)北(bei)(bei)(bei)方大(da)部(bu)(bu)麥(mai)(mai)區(qu)偏(pian)重以上程(cheng)度發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)，西(xi)(xi)南(nan)、西(xi)(xi)北(bei)(bei)(bei)、長江中(zhong)(zhong)游(you)麥(mai)(mai)區(qu)中(zhong)(zhong)等發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)面積約(yue)(yue)2.5億畝(mu)。小(xiao)麥(mai)(mai)吸漿蟲在河(he)南(nan)、河(he)北(bei)(bei)(bei)、山西(xi)(xi)、天津等麥(mai)(mai)區(qu)偏(pian)重發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)，安(an)徽、山東(dong)、陜西(xi)(xi)、甘肅、寧夏、青海(hai)大(da)部(bu)(bu)中(zhong)(zhong)等或偏(pian)輕(qing)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)面積約(yue)(yue)4000萬畝(mu)。小(xiao)麥(mai)(mai)紅(hong)蜘(zhi)蛛在河(he)南(nan)西(xi)(xi)北(bei)(bei)(bei)部(bu)(bu)、河(he)北(bei)(bei)(bei)中(zhong)(zhong)南(nan)部(bu)(bu)、湖(hu)北(bei)(bei)(bei)北(bei)(bei)(bei)部(bu)(bu)、陜西(xi)(xi)渭北(bei)(bei)(bei)地(di)區(qu)偏(pian)重發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)，其余麥(mai)(mai)區(qu)中(zhong)(zhong)等或以下程(cheng)度發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)面積約(yue)(yue)9000萬畝(mu)。麥(mai)(mai)莖蜂、一代粘蟲等在局部(bu)(bu)地(di)區(qu)有(you)一定程(cheng)度發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)。

二、水稻病蟲害

全國(guo)水稻病蟲以遷飛性、鉆蛀性害(hai)蟲和流行性病害(hai)為主(zhu)，稻飛虱(shi)、稻縱(zong)卷葉螟(ming)、二化螟(ming)等(deng)主(zhu)要病蟲仍呈嚴重發生態勢，發生面積(ji)14.65億畝(mu)次(ci)，其中(zhong)蟲害(hai)10.90億畝(mu)次(ci)，病害(hai)3.75億畝(mu)次(ci)。

1．水稻病(bing)害(hai) 稻瘟病(bing)在(zai)西(xi)南(nan)、江南(nan)中西(xi)部和(he)北方部分(fen)稻區(qu)(qu)中等發(fa)(fa)生，發(fa)(fa)生面積約8700萬(wan)畝(mu)次。紋(wen)枯(ku)病(bing)在(zai)華南(nan)、江南(nan)、長江流(liu)域及江淮稻區(qu)(qu)偏(pian)重發(fa)(fa)生，發(fa)(fa)生面積約2.58億畝(mu)。條紋(wen)葉枯(ku)病(bing)在(zai)長江下游粳稻區(qu)(qu)繼續重發(fa)(fa)，華北和(he)東北稻區(qu)(qu)發(fa)(fa)生區(qu)(qu)域將繼續擴大，發(fa)(fa)生面積3000萬(wan)畝(mu)。稻曲病(bing)在(zai)部分(fen)單季中晚稻種(zhong)植區(qu)(qu)有(you)偏(pian)重發(fa)(fa)生的可能。

2．水(shui)稻(dao)蟲(chong)害　稻(dao)飛虱在淮河流域及其以(yi)南(nan)大部(bu)(bu)(bu)稻(dao)區仍(reng)呈大發(fa)生(sheng)態勢，發(fa)生(sheng)面積(ji)4.44億(yi)畝次(ci)。稻(dao)縱卷葉螟在長江(jiang)中(zhong)下游(you)(you)、江(jiang)南(nan)大部(bu)(bu)(bu)、華南(nan)北部(bu)(bu)(bu)、西(xi)(xi)南(nan)中(zhong)東(dong)(dong)部(bu)(bu)(bu)稻(dao)區大發(fa)生(sheng)，發(fa)生(sheng)面積(ji)約(yue)3.48億(yi)畝次(ci)。二化螟一代在長江(jiang)中(zhong)游(you)(you)、江(jiang)南(nan)中(zhong)西(xi)(xi)部(bu)(bu)(bu)稻(dao)區大部(bu)(bu)(bu)大發(fa)生(sheng)，華南(nan)北部(bu)(bu)(bu)、江(jiang)南(nan)東(dong)(dong)部(bu)(bu)(bu)、西(xi)(xi)南(nan)中(zhong)北部(bu)(bu)(bu)以(yi)及東(dong)(dong)北部(bu)(bu)(bu)分(fen)稻(dao)區偏重(zhong)發(fa)生(sheng)，江(jiang)淮、長江(jiang)下游(you)(you)大部(bu)(bu)(bu)中(zhong)等發(fa)生(sheng)，三(san)、四代在長江(jiang)中(zhong)游(you)(you)、江(jiang)南(nan)中(zhong)西(xi)(xi)部(bu)(bu)(bu)偏重(zhong)發(fa)生(sheng)，發(fa)生(sheng)面積(ji)2.45億(yi)畝次(ci)。三(san)化螟在華南(nan)大部(bu)(bu)(bu)、長江(jiang)中(zhong)游(you)(you)局(ju)部(bu)(bu)(bu)稻(dao)區中(zhong)等發(fa)生(sheng)，發(fa)生(sheng)面積(ji)5300萬畝次(ci)。

三、棉花病蟲害

全國棉(mian)花病(bing)蟲(chong)(chong)害以棉(mian)鈴蟲(chong)(chong)、棉(mian)蚜、棉(mian)花葉螨(man)、棉(mian)盲(mang)蝽、枯萎病(bing)等(deng)為主，總體(ti)呈偏重發(fa)生態勢，發(fa)生面積約4.16億(yi)畝(mu)(mu)次，其(qi)中蟲(chong)(chong)害3.43億(yi)畝(mu)(mu)次，病(bing)害0.73億(yi)畝(mu)(mu)。

1．棉(mian)花病(bing)(bing)害枯萎病(bing)(bing)在黃(huang)河流域和長江流域大部(bu)棉(mian)區(qu)偏(pian)重(zhong)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，局部(bu)連(lian)年種植的老棉(mian)區(qu)大發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，新疆棉(mian)區(qu)偏(pian)輕發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積3500萬畝。苗期(qi)病(bing)(bing)害在黃(huang)河流域棉(mian)區(qu)北部(bu)偏(pian)重(zhong)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，其他大部(bu)棉(mian)區(qu)中(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，預(yu)計發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積2000萬畝。鈴(ling)期(qi)病(bing)(bing)害大部(bu)棉(mian)區(qu)中(zhong)等(deng)至偏(pian)輕發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積1800萬畝。

2.棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)花蟲(chong)害　棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)鈴(ling)蟲(chong)在黃河(he)(he)流域(yu)(yu)(yu)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)區(qu)(qu)東部(bu)(bu)(bu)和(he)北(bei)部(bu)(bu)(bu)、長(chang)江(jiang)(jiang)中(zhong)游棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)區(qu)(qu)北(bei)部(bu)(bu)(bu)偏重發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，其(qi)(qi)中(zhong)山(shan)東西北(bei)部(bu)(bu)(bu)、河(he)(he)北(bei)東南部(bu)(bu)(bu)大(da)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，其(qi)(qi)他棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)區(qu)(qu)大(da)部(bu)(bu)(bu)中(zhong)等(deng)(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面積(ji)(ji)1億畝次(ci)(ci)。棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)蚜在黃河(he)(he)流域(yu)(yu)(yu)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)區(qu)(qu)北(bei)部(bu)(bu)(bu)和(he)西部(bu)(bu)(bu)、新疆(jiang)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)區(qu)(qu)偏重發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，其(qi)(qi)他棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)區(qu)(qu)中(zhong)等(deng)(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面積(ji)(ji)7800萬(wan)畝次(ci)(ci)。棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)花葉(xie)螨在長(chang)江(jiang)(jiang)流域(yu)(yu)(yu)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)區(qu)(qu)大(da)部(bu)(bu)(bu)、黃河(he)(he)流域(yu)(yu)(yu)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)區(qu)(qu)北(bei)部(bu)(bu)(bu)和(he)新疆(jiang)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)區(qu)(qu)偏重發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，其(qi)(qi)他棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)區(qu)(qu)中(zhong)等(deng)(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面積(ji)(ji)7000萬(wan)畝次(ci)(ci)。棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)盲蝽在黃河(he)(he)流域(yu)(yu)(yu)和(he)長(chang)江(jiang)(jiang)流域(yu)(yu)(yu)大(da)部(bu)(bu)(bu)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)區(qu)(qu)偏重發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，新疆(jiang)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)區(qu)(qu)中(zhong)等(deng)(deng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面積(ji)(ji)6000萬(wan)畝次(ci)(ci)。煙粉虱在長(chang)江(jiang)(jiang)流域(yu)(yu)(yu)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)區(qu)(qu)和(he)新疆(jiang)吐魯(lu)番地區(qu)(qu)偏重發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，其(qi)(qi)中(zhong)湖南北(bei)部(bu)(bu)(bu)、湖北(bei)東部(bu)(bu)(bu)和(he)江(jiang)(jiang)漢平(ping)原以(yi)及江(jiang)(jiang)蘇(su)大(da)部(bu)(bu)(bu)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)區(qu)(qu)有大(da)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)的可(ke)能(neng)，黃河(he)(he)流域(yu)(yu)(yu)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)區(qu)(qu)中(zhong)等(deng)(deng)程度發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，全國發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面積(ji)(ji)3500萬(wan)畝。

四、玉米病蟲害

全國(guo)玉米(mi)(mi)(mi)病蟲害(hai)總體(ti)中(zhong)等發生(sheng)(sheng)。其中(zhong)，玉米(mi)(mi)(mi)螟在黑(hei)龍江中(zhong)南部、吉(ji)林西(xi)部、遼寧的中(zhong)西(xi)部、內蒙(meng)古中(zhong)東(dong)部及新(xin)疆北(bei)部等春(chun)玉米(mi)(mi)(mi)主(zhu)產(chan)區偏重發生(sheng)(sheng)，華北(bei)、黃淮(huai)、西(xi)南等夏玉米(mi)(mi)(mi)種植區大部中(zhong)等發生(sheng)(sheng)，其他地區偏輕發生(sheng)(sheng)。全國(guo)發生(sheng)(sheng)面積(ji)2億畝以上。玉米(mi)(mi)(mi)大小斑病在東(dong)北(bei)、華北(bei)、西(xi)北(bei)、西(xi)南玉米(mi)(mi)(mi)產(chan)區中(zhong)等程(cheng)度發生(sheng)(sheng)，發生(sheng)(sheng)面積(ji)8000多萬畝。玉米(mi)(mi)(mi)絲黑(hei)穗病東(dong)北(bei)、華北(bei)中(zhong)等程(cheng)度發生(sheng)(sheng)，發生(sheng)(sheng)面積(ji)3000萬畝。

五、雜食性害蟲

1．飛蝗(huang)(huang)　東亞飛蝗(huang)(huang)夏(xia)蝗(huang)(huang)在黃河中下游灘區、環(huan)渤海灣沿(yan)海和湖庫(ku)蝗(huang)(huang)區、華南蝗(huang)(huang)區中等發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，其他蝗(huang)(huang)區偏輕(qing)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)。發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面積(ji)1220萬畝，比2007年略有下降，但環(huan)渤海灣沿(yan)海蝗(huang)(huang)區高密度(du)點片面積(ji)將(jiang)比2007年略有增加。亞洲飛蝗(huang)(huang)在新(xin)疆大部蝗(huang)(huang)區中等發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，農區發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面積(ji)140萬畝，略低于前兩年。其中阿(a)勒泰、塔城(cheng)、伊(yi)犁和阿(a)克蘇(su)等地有出現(xian)高密度(du)點片的(de)可能。西藏(zang)飛蝗(huang)(huang)在四川甘孜、阿(a)壩，西藏(zang)阿(a)里、日喀則、昌都、拉薩等地偏輕(qing)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，金沙江、雅礱江流域局(ju)部河谷區域有大發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)的(de)可能，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面積(ji)300萬畝。

2．土蝗　在內蒙古大部(bu)(bu)、河北(bei)和(he)(he)山西的北(bei)部(bu)(bu)、新疆(jiang)天山的北(bei)部(bu)(bu)和(he)(he)東部(bu)(bu)、黑龍江中西部(bu)(bu)、吉(ji)林和(he)(he)遼寧的西部(bu)(bu)等北(bei)方(fang)農牧交錯區農區中等發(fa)生，發(fa)生面積6500萬畝(mu)次(ci)，發(fa)生范(fan)圍和(he)(he)種類與近年(nian)相似。

3．粘(zhan)蟲總體為(wei)中等至偏輕發生，但有繼續上(shang)升趨勢，不排除東北、華北和西(xi)南(nan)局部有集中遷入種群，導(dao)致暴發危害(hai)的(de)可能，發生面積7500萬(wan)畝次。

4．草地螟一代(dai)幼蟲(chong)在(zai)內蒙古(gu)中(zhong)東部(bu)(bu)和西部(bu)(bu)偏南地區、黑龍(long)江中(zhong)西部(bu)(bu)、吉林(lin)和遼寧的(de)西北部(bu)(bu)、河(he)北和山西的(de)北部(bu)(bu)、新(xin)疆阿勒(le)泰(tai)地區及(ji)和田局(ju)部(bu)(bu)中(zhong)等至偏輕發生，不(bu)排除局(ju)部(bu)(bu)出(chu)現成蟲(chong)大量遷(qian)入，出(chu)現幼蟲(chong)集中(zhong)為(wei)害(hai)的(de)可能，發生面積(ji)約(yue)1500萬(wan)畝。

六、油菜病蟲害

全國(guo)油(you)菜病(bing)蟲(chong)害中(zhong)等(deng)(deng)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)。其中(zhong)，油(you)菜菌(jun)核(he)病(bing)在(zai)長江(jiang)中(zhong)下(xia)游偏(pian)重發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，西(xi)南(nan)大部(bu)中(zhong)等(deng)(deng)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，陜西(xi)、青(qing)海、寧夏、甘肅等(deng)(deng)北(bei)方油(you)菜產區偏(pian)輕(qing)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)約5000萬(wan)畝(mu)。油(you)菜蚜蟲(chong)在(zai)西(xi)南(nan)大部(bu)和北(bei)方油(you)菜區偏(pian)重發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，長江(jiang)中(zhong)下(xia)游地區中(zhong)等(deng)(deng)程度發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)3800萬(wan)畝(mu)。油(you)菜病(bing)毒(du)病(bing)長江(jiang)中(zhong)下(xia)游地區中(zhong)等(deng)(deng)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)約1000萬(wan)畝(mu)。油(you)菜莖象甲(jia)(jia)、黑縫葉甲(jia)(jia)、黃(huang)條跳甲(jia)(jia)、角野螟在(zai)青(qing)海、陜西(xi)、寧夏、甘肅等(deng)(deng)西(xi)北(bei)油(you)菜產區中(zhong)等(deng)(deng)發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)共計1000萬(wan)畝(mu)。

七、蔬菜病蟲害

全國蔬菜(cai)(cai)主(zhu)要病(bing)(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)害(hai)總體呈中(zhong)等(deng)(deng)程度發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)4.5億畝(mu)(mu)次(ci)。其中(zhong)，菜(cai)(cai)蚜、小菜(cai)(cai)蛾、斜紋夜蛾、粉虱、霜霉病(bing)(bing)(bing)和白粉病(bing)(bing)(bing)偏(pian)重發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)積(ji)分(fen)別為(wei)6500、4000、3000、6000、3600和3000萬畝(mu)(mu)次(ci)；菜(cai)(cai)青(qing)蟲(chong)、甜(tian)菜(cai)(cai)夜蛾、潛葉(xie)蠅、灰(hui)霉病(bing)(bing)(bing)、疫病(bing)(bing)(bing)、瓜類(lei)(lei)枯萎病(bing)(bing)(bing)等(deng)(deng)中(zhong)等(deng)(deng)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)，其中(zhong)菜(cai)(cai)青(qing)蟲(chong)和潛葉(xie)蠅各(ge)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)4500萬畝(mu)(mu)次(ci)，甜(tian)菜(cai)(cai)夜蛾、灰(hui)霉病(bing)(bing)(bing)各(ge)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)2000萬畝(mu)(mu)次(ci)，疫病(bing)(bing)(bing)、瓜類(lei)(lei)枯萎病(bing)(bing)(bing)各(ge)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)1500萬畝(mu)(mu)次(ci)。白菜(cai)(cai)軟腐病(bing)(bing)(bing)等(deng)(deng)其他病(bing)(bing)(bing)蟲(chong)多為(wei)偏(pian)輕(qing)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)。

八、果樹病蟲害

全國果(guo)(guo)(guo)樹主要(yao)病(bing)蟲害總體(ti)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)(ji)2.90億(yi)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)次(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)。其(qi)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)，蘋果(guo)(guo)(guo)主要(yao)病(bing)蟲發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)(ji)1.2億(yi)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)次(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)。腐爛(lan)病(bing)在(zai)陜西、山西、山東偏(pian)重(zhong)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)(ji)1050萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)次(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)；輪紋病(bing)在(zai)遼寧偏(pian)重(zhong)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)(ji)650萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)次(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)；早期落(luo)葉病(bing)在(zai)陜西、山西果(guo)(guo)(guo)區(qu)(qu)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)至偏(pian)重(zhong)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)(ji)1200萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)次(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)；蘋果(guo)(guo)(guo)螨類在(zai)大部果(guo)(guo)(guo)區(qu)(qu)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)(ji)1200萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)次(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)；桃小食(shi)心蟲河(he)北果(guo)(guo)(guo)區(qu)(qu)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)(ji)870萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)次(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)；金紋細蛾在(zai)大部果(guo)(guo)(guo)區(qu)(qu)偏(pian)輕發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)(ji) 800萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)次(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)。柑橘主要(yao)病(bing)蟲發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)(ji)1億(yi)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)次(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)。其(qi)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)紅、黃蜘蛛偏(pian)重(zhong)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)(ji)4300萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)次(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)；介(jie)殼蟲中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)1650萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)次(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)；銹螨中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)(ji)800萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)次(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)；炭(tan)疽病(bing)和(he)瘡痂病(bing)偏(pian)輕發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)(ji)分(fen)別為530和(he)700萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)(mu)(mu)次(ci)(ci)(ci)(ci)。

今年(nian)初我國中東(dong)部地區(qu)持續出現(xian)低溫、雨(yu)雪和冰凍(dong)等(deng)災害(hai)天(tian)氣，對農作物(wu)病蟲(chong)害(hai)發(fa)生趨勢可能產生重要影響。為此(ci)，我們將(jiang)密(mi)切關注農作物(wu)重大病蟲(chong)災害(hai)發(fa)生演變動(dong)態，加(jia)強監測(ce)調查和分(fen)析會商(shang)，及時進行滾動(dong)修正預報。